Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Kemug]

Are you thinking misogynist?
Blokey circle disappearing Samantha during her Sunday morning run because she is female? I think that's possible ... gender based violence is not uncommon.

I'm saying that it could be that one particular bloke really resented her giving him orders, an old-fashioned bloke who had no problem with women, as long as they "knew their place". (I don't really believe this, but it's possible.)

 

[Chestnutsunfish]

I saw this article (behind a paywall) about hunting being on the rise in Ballarat. I’m completely unfamiliar with the area myself but was wondering if the route that Samantha ran on, more specifically the area they are currently searching could have placed her in the vicinity of either legal/illegal hunting?

Seen deer around Ballarat? You're not alone

Mount Cole and the Wombat State forest are among the hotspots.

www.thecourier.com.au

Aware I am probably wildly off base on this one but I’ve been down every other rabbit hole so now I find myself here!

 

[otto]

I'm saying that it could be that one particular bloke really resented her giving him orders, an old-fashioned bloke who had no problem with women, as long as they "knew their place". (I don't really believe this, but it's possible.)

An old fashioned bloke who would disappear a man or woman because he has issues with authority?

 

[SESmck]

She has not been found at the Canadian Plantation or on trails from there to home. It seems like there is no body, or obvious crime scene. Every criminal, no matter how well planned, leaves something behind - that's history. Investigators need to find the original crime scene.

If she has been taken from the location where she disappeared, then it's unlikely that it was voluntary. Police think that she is no longer alive, and she sounds too smart to run away with a murderer.

Exactly. I'm wondering if someone drove and said there was an emergency back home and told her to get in the car or something. Her family said she was tough and would have given up a hell of a fight if anyone tried to attack her, hence there would have been evidence. Her parents said her phone was always on. If it was an opportunistic crime, taking the phone and breaking it/ turning it off might not have been thought about. It seems as though she might have been wearing a apple watch. Someone who knows her well would deal with those two things asap. They said her phone was switched off. They think her body was moved from that area. It seems that she might have been killed in a vehicle and buried elsewhere perhaps. Maybe the phone data isn't just hers. Maybe they've traced someone else's phone data and it matches up with where her phone last pinged. Surely they don't just check the data of the missing person. As a female runner, she would have always been hyper vigilant when running. All women are. It had to have been someone she knew and trusted.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Samantha may not have fallen down a mine, but she may have ended up in one.

Perhaps one that's far away from the areas being searched.

 

[JLZ]

I'm saying that it could be that one particular bloke really resented her giving him orders, an old-fashioned bloke who had no problem with women, as long as they "knew their place". (I don't really believe this, but it's possible.)

A female acquaintance had an employee like that, behaved with subtle intimidation towards her and was nice as pie to her husband. Her husband took care of the sacking and gave a colourless reason, unrelated to his wife or dissatisfaction with the employee's performance. I'd be a little surprised if Mick left it to Sam to sack a fellow in such a circumstance. Notwithstanding that she was the extrovert and he the quiet one.

 

[SESmck]

Or possibly a motorbike?

Yes, isn't there a gang near there? Although easier to pick up on cctv if she was on a bike.

 

[SESmck]

My feeling is, she met persons unknown to her

She was killed there and then in the vehicle and driven away

I feel it's been planned, with quite a few involved

I just think there would have been some sign of a struggle. Her family said she would have given a hell of a fight if someone tried to attack her.

 

[Dr Samoht]

I was thinking that near that small dam wouldn't be a bad area for a vagrant to set up camp. Water close by.

Possibly , although the water is a bit manky , friends tried yabby ing there a month ago without any luck ! The dam is probably purpose made as an emergency water resource for firefighters .

 

[Hats]

The one thing about this type of crime, though, is the gangs generally use a "hail of bullets' or firebomb a rival member's home or business. Yes, with family inside.

I am not sure that I have ever heard of a bikie gang disappearing someone's wife. It seems to me that they like to take ownership (but not criminal ownership) of their crime.

But "disappearing someone's wife" is not the case here because both MM and SM owned and worked within the family business. Unless you are implying MM was part of the bikie gang.

 

[SESmck]

IMO …. Supt Hatt did seem to imply that until approx 8:00am (1hour) Samantha was on foot, but not so after that … that suggests a vehicle to me …

(From the presser - that was my take on the information given)
IMO

I agree. Hence my theory. IMO she must have gone willingly into a car. Her family and friends would know her running route

 

[TootsieFootsie]

I had an experience, but it was over 20 years ago, when I was an OP Shop volunteer.
I attempted to help a man looking for furniture and he flat out said that he "was not going to be served by a woman"

I'll never forget the look of hatred on his face.

I"m in a country town, if that makes a difference.

 

[Black-Cat]

Samantha may not have fallen down a mine, but she may have ended up in one.

Perhaps one that's far away from the areas being searched.

Yes Toots, this could absolutely be where she has ended up! Ballarat, Bendigo up to St. Arnaud is known as the 'Golden Triangle' and there are thousands of shafts, some in State Forests, but many are on private property.

 

[Dr Samoht]

I saw this article (behind a paywall) about hunting being on the rise in Ballarat. I’m completely unfamiliar with the area myself but was wondering if the route that Samantha ran on, more specifically the area they are currently searching could have placed her in the vicinity of either legal/illegal hunting?

Seen deer around Ballarat? You're not alone

Mount Cole and the Wombat State forest are among the hotspots.

www.thecourier.com.au

Aware I am probably wildly off base on this one but I’ve been down every other rabbit hole so now I find myself here!

Not likely , the park has rabbits, foxes , wallabies, kangaroos .. and even the elusive koalas , but I’ve not heard gunfire .

 

[otto]

Exactly. I'm wondering if someone drove and said there was an emergency back home and told her to get in the car or something. Her family said she was tough and would have given up a hell of a fight if anyone tried to attack her, hence there would have been evidence. Her parents said her phone was always on. If it was an opportunistic crime, taking the phone and breaking it/ turning it off might not have been thought about. It seems as though she might have been wearing a apple watch. Someone who knows her well would deal with those two things asap. They said her phone was switched off. They think her body was moved from that area. It seems that she might have been killed in a vehicle and buried elsewhere perhaps. Maybe the phone data isn't just hers. Maybe they've traced someone else's phone data and it matches up with where her phone last pinged. Surely they don't just check the data of the missing person. As a female runner, she would have always been hyper vigilant when running. All women are. It had to have been someone she knew and trusted.

If someone was following her in a car, two possibilities come to mind. First, he speeds up, passes her, stops, walks towards her as though he has something to say, pops the trunk, alternatively he hits her with his vehicle from behind. Same result.

She was wearing a smart watch on the morning that she vanished. I don't have the link anymore, attached photo from missing photos.

Investigators can look at phone numbers connecting with a cell tower in a window of time, but how busy was the golf course at 5 PM on Sunday? Was the suspect's phone turned off before her phone pinged nearby? Probably yes.

If investigators know that she jogged to Canadian Plantation, they must have tracked her smartwatch and phone data to that location. I doubt that her phone was completely turned off during her runs. My impression is that both stopped transmitting near that location, so maybe the phone and watch are in the bushes?

 

[Shadow@light]

Items found in search for missing Victorian mum - ABC listen

www.abc.net.au

“Ballarat community members looking for missing Victorian woman Samantha Murphy have told police about some items they found while searching through thick scrub but it's not yet known if they have ay connection to Ms Murphy.”

Police have requested anyone in the area to check their CCTV footage between 7am to 7pm February 4th for any sightings of SM.

Today would been extra hard, Ballarat still has the bushfires going. Wind dropped today and smoke has settled on Ballarat.
My Understanding Partner had to go to Melbourne he returning this afternoon he could see it on Ballarat and smell it.
Where we live we are blanketed in Smoke.
Count my blessings, struggling to breath, special Needs Child whose been on Overloaded sensery whose having meltdowns throughout the afternoon, that I have not left my home due to fire risk, lost home to fire and I am not fighting the Fire.
I pray that if Sam has died, that her body has not been left in the National Forrest where the Bushfire Burning.

 

[Dotta]

I attempted to help a man looking for furniture and he flat out said that he "was not going to be served by a woman"

I'll never forget the look of hatred on his face.

I"m in a country town, if that makes a difference.

Phew!
You should have said smiling sweetly
"What a pity!
You don't know what you are missing"

 

[SouthAussie]

But "disappearing someone's wife" is not the case here because both MM and SM owned and worked within the family business. Unless you are implying MM was part of the bikie gang.

No, I am not implying anything. I responded to a post which described how two women were killed by a gang. The post stated that the gangs have sunk to a new low by killing the women in a hail of bullets.

We have had firebombings here of residences where bikie members live, families inside. The bikies don't seem to try to hide their crime, they just don't want to be prosecuted.

 

[nightrider17]

Today would been extra hard, Ballarat still has the bushfires going. Wind dropped today and smoke has settled on Ballarat.
My Understanding Partner had to go to Melbourne he returning this afternoon he could see it on Ballarat and smell it.
Where we live we are blanketed in Smoke.
Count my blessings, struggling to breath, special Needs Child whose been on Overloaded sensery whose having meltdowns throughout the afternoon, that I have not left my home due to fire risk, lost home to fire and I am not fighting the Fire.
I pray that if Sam has died, that her body has not been left in the National Forrest where the Bushfire Burning.

How far away from Mount Clear are these bush fires I am not familiar with that area and they are reporting west of Ballarat. MOO

 

[Toowong(s)]

Hi all some good posts today, have just caught up. Not much new to go on sadly.

Not sure where I’m going with this but I wondered if the damaged vehicle could be a disgruntled customer, someone who brought a vehicle in, perhaps attempting insurance fraud or something, and was refused by SM. Bit of a long bow i think but thought I’d throw it in the mix.

Parking that aside, this is my timeline theory MOO based on what little we do know:

Sat evening - dinner involving SM, MM and friends, at which SM mentions a 14km run in the morning, before it gets too hot.

7am - SM embarks on the planned 14km run (after letting dogs out and picking up after them…). For what it’s worth SM does not take water, that is not her custom as it’s hard to carry and run, it was still nice and cool in the morning, she hydrates before and after running (like me, noting others think it’s irresponsible). SMs run usually takes less than 2 hrs and she intends to be home by 9am to get ready for the rest of her day, however at the half way mark Mt Clear around 8am SM meets with foul play. Multiple theories possible, in my order of likelihood (MOO) below the timeline.

7am -9am - while SM is running, back at the house if it’s anything like my household which is a similar makeup, everyone else has a bit of a sleep in, starts to stir, have breakfast, jump on devices, social media, etc. MM potentially starts a few jobs in the garden, it’s a big property I think would require a fair bit of work on weekends. There’s a possibility one or more of the kids had an activity eg a swimming lesson, or a play date at a friends, so MM could have been out and back home one or more times with one or more kids in tow. Or maybe MM fires up the BBQ and cooks breakfast for the kids. In any event the family are all together doing things and able to corroborate this time window easily.

9am - 11am - sometime in this window family start to wonder where is SM. A family brunch is planned at 11am. SM possibly also had a 10am meeting. So I’d say by 10am someone in the house has put a few texts and calls in to SM, where are you mum/Sam? No answer. Does it ring out? Or go straight to voicemail? Do they check FindMy and see SM is not on the usual running route anymore? By 10am they’re in the car driving the route, looking for Sam/mum. She might be tired or hurt and need a lift back. Maybe her battery died. Maybe there driving beyond the route to where FindMy shows a phone location.

By 11am family are really worried. There has been no sight of Sam, not answered phone. Maybe the person SM was meeting in Ballarat at 10am has also called MM to see if he is with her (after trying SMs phone with no luck).

Around 11am MM contacts police and the official search begins.

It’s important police establish SM crime at Mt Clear happened around 8am and SM was away from that area shortly after. As long as it is possible that the crime could have happened later, say 10am, then it starts to cross over into the time the family are also in the forest searching. Maybe even searching beyond if FindMy took them there.

While the family are innocent and have done everything right in the eyes of the police, it’s almost impossible to untangle them from the web until the real events are known and proven and the attacker is caught.

This timeline theory to me explains why the police say “they think they are accross all the movements to and from the house”.

Theories for what happens at 8am (MOO):
1. Opportunistic predator crosses paths with SM and acts on suppressed urges.
2A. SM witnesses criminal behaviour eg a bikie and his meth stash, and is silenced.
2B. SM is accidentally struck by a car engaged in criminal behaviour and accident is covered up.
3. SM falls victim to an attacker known to SM, who has either stalked SM from early on the run, or maybe knew of the 14km run/route and staked out the Mt Clear turnaround spot.
4. The usual statistical probabilities are affirmed. Really hoping not but need to keep it in the mix.

All IMO. Theoretic timeline with some known times as bookends.