AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 3

[KaylynnCouture]

TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) - Tucson police are searching for a 6-year-old girl who went missing from her home on the city's east side.

Isabel Mercedes Celis was last seen late Friday and discovered to be missing at about 8 a.m. Saturday.

Sgt. Maria Hawke says police are searching the area around East Broadway Boulevard and Craycroft Road using street patrols, canines, detectives and a helicopter.

She's described as just under 4-feet-tall and weighing 44 pounds, with brown hair and hazel eyes.

Snipped: http://www.kswt.com/story/17650000/t...-year-old-girl

Scanner Thread: Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community
remember: anything posted in the scanner thread stays on the scanner thread.

full news coverage from KVOA: http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/

facebook: Find Isabel Celis

Thread #1
Thread #2

 

[SurfieTX]

Abductor

Four categories of abductors have been classified by the United States' Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). These are as follows:

Paedophiles – The people in this category constitute the single largest number of child abductors. Paedophiles seem to identify with children better than with adults which is the reason why they are able to seduce/lure children easily. They appear to understand the likes and dislikes of children and show a genuine concern for their well-being.
Profiteers – This is an individual who is a criminal exploiter who sells children to pornographers or adoption rings, mostly in the black-market industry.
Serial Killers – The actions of these individuals are methodical and ritualized, with power, dominance, and control as the most frequent motivator.
Childless Psychotics – These individuals tend to abduct children when there are unable to have children of their own or have lost a child and seek another to fill its place (Tedisco & Paludi, 1996).

Abductors are generally male and they tend to target victims within their own ethnic group. Their behavioural patterns seem to be dependent upon gender, motivation, and relationship to the victim. To explain further, female offenders rarely abduct for sexual gratification, or profit, but more for emotional satisfaction.

The majority of child abductors who murder their victims have a history of violence. The United States missing children homicide investigative study by Hanfland et al, (1997) revealed that 60% had prior arrests for violent crimes. Almost two-thirds of the killers who were strangers to the victims had committed prior crimes against children, whereas 41% of the child abduction killers who were friends and acquaintances of the victim had committed crimes against other children.

Hanfland et al, (1997) stated that when the child is abducted and murdered, "contrary to the popular belief, child killers are not aged perverts or dirty old men." The abductor's average age is around 27 years and much younger than the average killer. They are predominately unmarried (85%), half of them live alone or with their parents, half are unemployed, they have a history of sexual, alcohol, drug and mental problems, two thirds have been arrested for violent crimes with slightly half of these prior crimes against children, and many move or change residence often.

Pertinent parts BBM: http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/pubs/omc-ned/abd-rapt-eng.htm

 

[shay0903]

In the previous thread someone mentioned if a dog expert could answer how they would determine an unknown scent when le was all in the home. I was thinking this too. How would they be able to distinguish an intruder vs...say one of the kids friends who had been over the evening before?? Seems this would be very tough. Any explanation or example is appreciated! TIA

 

[Anita Richman]

Has anyone heard if Uncle Justin is/was living with his sister (Becky Celis) and her family? I am attempting to delicately inquire, but it's sensitive and I am not very subtle.

 

[SurfieTX]

I'm also thinking that it is a very real possibility this person let the dogs out on purpose to play/feed them to familiarize himself with the dogs - thus, no barking, no indication of stranger danger.

 

[KaylynnCouture]

I feel like this couldn't have been a completely random stranger abduction. It would have had to been someone who was already familiar with the home, knew where Isabel's bedroom was, was familiar with the family having dogs (and, like Surfie mentioned, maybe even familiarized himself with the dogs first to minimize the "stranger danger" risk).

So with that super wide profile in mind, I believe it has to be someone who gained access to the house previously (even for a brief period of time, like a dogsitter while the family was away..)

 

[KaylynnCouture]

Does anyone know what time the next presser is scheduled for?

 

[oceanblueeyes]

In the previous thread someone mentioned if a dog expert could answer how they would determine an unknown scent when le was all in the home. I was thinking this too. How would they be able to distinguish an intruder vs...say one of the kids friends who had been over the evening before?? Seems this would be very tough. Any explanation or example is appreciated! TIA

I know the dog handlers can answer you questions but we see dogs scenting out the scent of suspects all the time so there must be a way that the dogs can tell the different scents.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I feel like this couldn't have been a completely random stranger abduction. It would have had to been someone who was already familiar with the home, knew where Isabel's bedroom was, was familiar with the family having dogs (and, like Surfie mentioned, maybe even familiarized himself with the dogs first to minimize the "stranger danger" risk).

So with that super wide profile in mind, I believe it has to be someone who gained access to the house previously (even for a brief period of time, like a dogsitter while the family was away..)

I do think this could be a perfect stranger. I will never forget how Duncan knew everything about the Greone home before he even entered to kidnap Shasta and Dylan. He knew they had dogs how many adults lived there and how many children and where each one slept.

Often even if the blinds are pulled down one can see movement back and forth and know who's room belongs to whom. When it is dark outside and the lights are on inside not many people are peering out their windows to see if anyone is looking in.

IMO

 

[SurfieTX]

Nonfamily Abducted Children:
National Estimates and
Characteristics
David Finkelhor, Heather Hammer, and
Andrea J. Sedlak

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

 

[KaylynnCouture]

I do think this could be a perfect stranger. I will never forget how Duncan knew everything about the Greone home before he even entered to kidnap Shasta and Dylan. He knew they had dogs how many adults lived there and how many children and where each one slept.

Often even if the blinds are pulled down one can see movement back and forth and know who's room belongs to whom. When it is dark outside and the lights are on inside not many people are peering out their windows to see if anyone is looking in.

IMO

I vaguely remember the Groene case, can you refresh my memory? How did the perp know everything about the home if he was a complete stranger to the family?

You make a great point about the blinds.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I'm also thinking that it is a very real possibility this person let the dogs out on purpose to play/feed them to familiarize himself with the dogs - thus, no barking, no indication of stranger danger.

And if he had encountered the dogs while inside all he had to do is throw them some treats to divert their attention while he made his escape. They would all be eaten and the family would never even know he gave them the treats.

imo

 

[pieper4]

Tucson resident here, too. Echo the interest in the uncle. Have since day one. Haven't heard/seen anything about him since the initial video and odd phrases.

 

[SurfieTX]

http://www.kvoa.com/livestream/

Noon news on now.

 

[Patty G]

Do we have the interview of the uncle?

 

[FrayedKnot]

I vaguely remember the Groene case, can you refresh my memory? How did the perp know everything about the home if he was a complete stranger to the family?

You make a great point about the blinds.

Worst. Case. Ever. Just awful. But the perp hid in the woods for days, IIRC and spied on the family. Then he went in, killed the parents and older brother, absconding with Dylan and Shasta. And it only got worse.


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[SurfieTX]

Live at the landfill...

 

[KaylynnCouture]

Welcome to Websleuths pieper4!! It's great to have you with us!

 

[FrayedKnot]

I'm also thinking that it is a very real possibility this person let the dogs out on purpose to play/feed them to familiarize himself with the dogs - thus, no barking, no indication of stranger danger.

ITA. I just don't think the dogs being out is a coincidence.


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[Patty G]

This is the 10:00 AM CDT News Conference
http://www.kvoa.com/full-coverage/finding-isabel/#!prettyPhoto/0/