CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #2

[RickshawFan]

Thank you SO much for taking the time to write this—it really makes the most sense of all scenarios!! It also seems possible that the statement attributed police (that they family had hiked most of 8.5 miles) might have been premature or misreported.

I agree. The police also suspected foul play, and now seem to have backed off that idea.

 

[Figuring]

I'm as curious as anyone else about which route they took, but all in all I don't see it as key to understanding what happened -- the Hite Cove Trail is just as hot and just as lacking in shade as Savage-Lundy. The gradient might be a bit gentler but that is not what caused their deaths, IMHO.

You’re right of course. I personally had 2 things in mind in being obsessed with which route they took.

1. I thought the distance they traversed would make a difference to the theory some have proposed here of murder/suicide (which I don’t subscribe to, but wanted to be able to discount with evidence). I personally don’t think someone would hike ~7 miles (ie most of the loop) to finally die or kill someone.

2. The direction they took does, to me, help reframe some of the discussion about their preparedness, planning, parenting, etc. If they really planned only a short hike down SL & back up, that means they apparently left at a far less unreasonable time of day, & with apparently enough water, & yet something went terribly wrong. Maybe it was the dogs paws, maybe dad got a strain from the carrier, we don’t know. They seemed to be a happy & loving & health conscious family, so it’s an added sadness if we are left thinking bad things about them re their choices if it’s based on faulty information. JMO!

 

[Auntie Cipation]

The topo map shown in the last page shows a tributary drainage crossed by the Savage-Lundy trail, a bit below where they were found.

Does anyone local know if that creek is perennial? (meaning would it have water in it this time of year)

TIA

 

[Seni]

You’re right of course. I personally had 2 things in mind in being obsessed with which route they took.

1. I thought the distance they traversed would make a difference to the theory some have proposed here of murder/suicide (which I don’t subscribe to, but wanted to be able to discount with evidence). I personally don’t think someone would hike ~7 miles (ie most of the loop) to finally die or kill someone.

Snipped and bolded for focus.

Absolutely agree. Even if, in the extreme, this could be a suicide planned so that the family members don't have to discover it themselves, it would be too extreme.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

<modsnip>

I think about it when I'm watering my garden, and I feel the morning heat intensifying and going from cool to hot. But I also think about the past. The time I let my 8 year old son go hike all-day with grown men in Mexico, and he came back very sick. Or the time my 10 year old daughter was playing on a beach in Guatemala and a rogue wave came from nowhere and carried her out to sea. If my husband hadn't been close by, my daughter would have been carried out to sea. We were the only people on a dangerous, isolated beach-- which I learned later.

That's why I can't leave this thread. There but for the grace of God go I.

 

[mickey2942]

Occam's Razor...the saddest part of this is that the healthiest people succumb to heat stroke.

In a way, this tragedy also reminds me of the doctor who was lost hiking on Mount Rainier.

A reminder that while going out in nature, challenging yourself...there is always a risk, especially if the area is not familiar to you...and even if it is...

 

[Figuring]

I think about it when I'm watering my garden, and I feel the morning heat intensifying and going from cool to hot. But I also think about the past. The time I let my 8 year old son go hike all-day with grown men in Mexico, and he came back very sick. Or the time my 10 year old daughter was playing on a beach in Guatemala and a rogue wave came from nowhere and carried her out to sea. If my husband hadn't been close by, my daughter would have been carried out to sea. We were the only people on a dangerous, isolated beach-- which I learned later.

That's why I can't leave this thread. There but for the grace of God go I.

What you wrote here is so poignant. This case is such a horrible reminder both of some of our own & our loved ones' close calls, & just how vulnerable we are to the forces of nature. I just feel so bad for this young family & their loved ones.

 

[rahod1]

I think about it when I'm watering my garden, and I feel the morning heat intensifying and going from cool to hot. But I also think about the past. The time I let my 8 year old son go hike all-day with grown men in Mexico, and he came back very sick. Or the time my 10 year old daughter was playing on a beach in Guatemala and a rogue wave came from nowhere and carried her out to sea. If my husband hadn't been close by, my daughter would have been carried out to sea. We were the only people on a dangerous, isolated beach-- which I learned later.

That's why I can't leave this thread. There but for the grace of God go I.

Interesting that you bring up the past. There have been several occasions when my life was on the line that's why a find this story so tragic.

 

[woods]

Was Jonathan leaning against anything when he was found in a seated position on the ground?

 

[Sunny Day]

I have read an interview with Jonathan's father, but was wondering if there have been any comments from Ellen's family.

 

[katydid23]

I think it is easy to underestimate it unless you have seen it, experienced it or read something like this. Vets and peds need to use words like brain damage to get through to people. Even with all the media around Kreycik and his death from heat they still did not register how dangerous the weather and terrain were.

What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke | Outside Online

Exactly. It is not the same as getting overheated on a hot day, feeling weak, and needing to sit for a few minutes and sip some water. That kind of minor heat distress is very simple to recover from. Sit down, cool off and drink cool water.

But heat exhaustion is a much more extreme level of heat distress, and if one does not turn that around, it is only 30 to 45 minutes away from possible heat STROKE, which can be fatal.

Recovery requires medical intervention if possible---and at very least, to be in a cool location, enough water to immerse self in or pour on the body, in order to cool down the over heated temperature in brain and body core. The organs begin to shut down if one is not able to reverse the core body temperature.

Recovering from heat exhaustion requires some steps that were probably impossible given the circumstances the family was in that day.

 

[Figuring]

Exactly. It is not the same as getting overheated on a hot day, feeling weak, and needing to sit for a few minutes and sip some water. That kind of minor heat distress is very simple to recover from. Sit down, cool off and drink cool water.

But heat exhaustion is a much more extreme level of heat distress, and if one does not turn that around, it is only 30 to 45 minutes away from possible heat STROKE, which can be fatal.

Recovery requires medical intervention if possible---and at very least, to be in a cool location, enough water to immerse self in or pour on the body, in order to cool down the over heated temperature in brain and body core. The organs begin to shut down if one is not able to reverse the core body temperature.

Recovering from heat exhaustion requires some steps that were probably impossible given the circumstances the family was in that day.

I cannot underscore your comments enough. With heatstroke, you lose motor control & logical thinking, ultimately, semi-simultaneously, ie both bottom-up & top-down processes of the brain.

You absolutely need immediate intervention to cool down your core. Drinking ambient water won’t solve it. Someone w heatstroke needs to be immediately immersed in an ice bath & given electrolytes.

I say this as someone who heatstroke about 6 weeks ago from the heat dome in the PNW. I also work in cognitive psychology.

There is no mind over matter w heatstroke. The only solution is removal, & a monitored cooling of your core.

 

[rleigh123]

Sorry if this is a repeat but there's a lot to read.

I'm quite confused by something.

For several reasons I was under the impression that heat stroke was ruled out.

The autopsy revealed no cause of death; official word is that these are "unique" and "strange" deaths; their computer and phones are being checked; FBI and Justice Dept are involved; and algae bloom was often regarded as the first assumption for the COD.

Now I read that there were only two CODs ruled out, and heat stroke isn't one of them, and many people (not officials, not the media) are citing heat stroke as a possibility.

We've all heard of heat stroke cases before. None of them were treated like this.

If it hasn't been ruled out, it's almost without question that was COD.

 

[bpeterson912]

Sorry if this is a repeat but there's a lot to read.

I'm quite confused by something.

For several reasons I was under the impression that heat stroke was ruled out.

The autopsy revealed no cause of death; official word is that these are "unique" and "strange" deaths; their computer and phones are being checked; FBI and Justice Dept are involved; and algae bloom was often regarded as the first assumption for the COD.

Now I read that there were only two CODs ruled out, and heat stroke isn't one of them, and many people (not officials, not the media) are citing heat stroke as a possibility.

We've all heard of heat stroke cases before. None of them were treated like this.

If it hasn't been ruled out, it's almost without question that was COD.

Heat stroke has not been ruled out as a cause of death. The only causes of death that have been ruled out are blunt force trauma and "chemical hazards" along the trail. Based on recent media reports, law enforcement is waiting for toxicology results before commenting further on a possible COD.

By the way, it's often difficult or impossible for an autopsy to confirm that heat stroke was the cause of death. “The autopsy findings of heat stroke may be minimal and are non-specific, particularly if the survival interval is short" (from https://www.aaimedicine.org/journal-of-insurance-medicine/jim/2002/034-02-0114.pdf). When heat stroke is listed as an official cause of death, it's usually after all other possibilities are eliminated.

You mention that the official word is that these deaths are "unique" and "strange." Law enforcement used a lot of such language initially, but that began to change last week. In a statement on Thursday, the Mariposa County Sheriff’s Office continued to say that they were investigating various potential causes of death, but--for the first time--they focused more on the conditions that day:

"The sheriff’s office said the entire Savage-Lundy Trail loop, where the family was found dead, is approximately 8.5 miles, with 5 miles of that being a 'steep southern exposure path with little-to-no trees or shade' in the 2018 Ferguson Fire burn scar. Sheriff officials said temperatures there appeared to range from 103 and 109 in certain parts of that trail between 11:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Aug. 15, the day the family is believed to have been hiking it."​

Source: https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253770788.htm

I'm not suggesting that law enforcement has concluded that heat stroke was the COD, but I think they've shifted from not thinking about it at all to thinking that it's likely, or at least not unlikely.

 

[CrimeDawg123]

Heat stroke has not been ruled out as a cause of death. The only causes of death that have been ruled out are blunt force trauma and "chemical hazards" along the trail. Based on recent media reports, law enforcement is waiting for toxicology results before commenting further on a possible COD.

By the way, it's often difficult or impossible for an autopsy to confirm that heat stroke was the cause of death. “The autopsy findings of heat stroke may be minimal and are non-specific, particularly if the survival interval is short" (from https://www.aaimedicine.org/journal-of-insurance-medicine/jim/2002/034-02-0114.pdf). When heat stroke is listed as an official cause of death, it's usually after all other possibilities are eliminated.

You mention that the official word is that these deaths are "unique" and "strange." Law enforcement used a lot of such language initially, but that began to change last week. In a statement on Thursday, the Mariposa County Sheriff’s Office continued to say that they were investigating various potential causes of death, but--for the first time--they focused more on the conditions that day:

"The sheriff’s office said the entire Savage-Lundy Trail loop, where the family was found dead, is approximately 8.5 miles, with 5 miles of that being a 'steep southern exposure path with little-to-no trees or shade' in the 2018 Ferguson Fire burn scar. Sheriff officials said temperatures there appeared to range from 103 and 109 in certain parts of that trail between 11:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Aug. 15, the day the family is believed to have been hiking it."​

Source: https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253770788.htm

I'm not suggesting that law enforcement has concluded that heat stroke was the COD, but I think they've shifted from not thinking about it at all to thinking that it's likely, or at least not unlikely.

Thank you for your helpful post. Like the OP I've also been confused about heat stroke and the autopsies.

 

[Countem]

Was Jonathan leaning against anything when he was found in a seated position on the ground?

This information has not been confirmed, but multiple news outlets (including the one linked below) have stated that the father (and the rest of the family) was found in the “middle of the trail”, which implies (MOO) that he was not leaning on anything.

'Not one clue': The mystery is only deepening around the family found dead on a Sierra trail

 

[Countem]

We get two very helpful nuggets of information out of the following Twitter feed by the San Francisco Chronicle journalist.

RSBM. BBM.

7:20 PM · Aug 20, 2021

Replying to
@mgafni
Sheriff told me Gerrish had his cell phone in front right pocket & was seated on trail. Rest of family very close by. Investigators trying to access phone for clues. No cell coverage there. Testing little bit of water left in camelpack.

7:25 PM · Aug 20, 2021·

Matthias Gafni@mgafni

Replying to
@mgafni
With the help of the Mariposa sheriff, we were able to create a more accurate map of the suspected hike the family took. And sadly where they were found. https://sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Not-one-clue-The-mystery-is-only-deepening-16401921.php…



7:31 PM · Aug 20, 2021

We can confirm, based on the journalist’s reported discussions with the sheriff, that there was only a “little bit of water left in camelpack” when found and that the map from the San Francisco Chronicle was developed with the sheriff’s help and lays out the sheriff’s belief (at least at the time) that the family hiked the entire route pictured.

 

[Noelscat]

I have read an interview with Jonathan's father, but was wondering if there have been any comments from Ellen's family.

If it's not too much trouble, would you mind linking that article? Thank you either way.

 

[RickshawFan]

We get two very helpful nuggets of information out of the following Twitter feed by the San Francisco Chronicle journalist.

RSBM. BBM.


We can confirm, based on the journalist’s reported discussions with the sheriff, that there was only a “little bit of water left in camelpack” when found and that the map from the San Francisco Chronicle was developed with the sheriff’s help and lays out the sheriff’s belief (at least at the time) that the family hiked the entire route pictured.

IMO we’re too much in the weeds of who is saying what in this segment, Is this the journal speaking or the original journalist! Are these direct quotes from the sheriff or summaries? Calling a bladder a “camelpack” sends up a red flag to me. IMO that’s not a direct quote from the sheriff, since it’s referred to as Camelbak or “bladder” in general practice. Camelbaks were developed by the military and MSR; they would be standard LE equipment. Ergo, I don’t believe the sheriff is being quoted verbatim.
But the sheriff was also suggesting early that this might be a criminal matter, which doesn’t seem to be on the table now. Note, too, “belief at the time”, per the journalist, as you are quoting.
Also, the sheriff here, if this is being reported correctly, is contradicting the fact that his instinct and priority was to send SAR and the helicopter to the switchbacks, and not to the ORV trail, or down to the river….

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

"In the years 2010 through 2014, 192 SARs were hiking-related fatalities. And the reasons for injury and death are noteworthy. The largest percentage of deaths for years have been consistently attributable to three things: lack of knowledge, lack of experience, and poor judgment. In fact, deaths related to lack of knowledge and experience by far outnumber deaths attributed to falls." from What's Killing America's Hikers?

This quote is from an excellent article by a SAR professional regarding the rise in hiking rescues and deaths. The statistics the author uses are based on National Park data but the trend she sees is probably accurate in all wilderness and hiking areas. It's as if SAR crews know this, but the rest of the world, including LE and me, did not.