Hi there,
Newbie here.
I have looked at this case for a while and I think the heat exhaustion/stroke is the strongest theory yet. I might be wrong!
I do feel for the family and their families.
My biggest thought is 'the incident pit' :
The Incident Pit – Outdoor Swimming Society
When small things start to go wrong...bigger things can start to pile up. It could be that they pushed through down to the river...ignoring any small signs that were showing up with the infant and the dog.
They may have been able to cool down there (at the river) and encountered more problems on the way back up.
My husband used to own a scuba diving centre in Egypt. A friend of a friend started to suffer from heat exhaustion and he was behaving as if he was drunk. My hubbie had not seen this before so rushed him off to the local doctor. The doctor advised him (hubbie) to cool him down immediately so cold water was poured over this friend's body until the guy came round. It was a lucky escape.
My husband was convinced that this guy was drunk but his friend's friend said that he had not touched a drop of alcohol. He had obviously not been drinking any water and had been sitting out in the sun (on the beach) all day.
As a scuba diver...the incident pit...is crucial. One small thing/problem can quickly snowball into a major incident.
I think the combination of intense heat (just as much as the intense cold) with hiking can be lethal. We have seen it with other cases...plus the commitment to keep on keeping on can be totally the wrong thing to do.
The key is being able to recognise the 'problematic' signs. I guess it is a good idea to always be mindful of your 'turnaround plan' - whatever your outdoor activity...we should always set out but always have a turnaround plan in (y)our back pocket or have it as Plan B.
I do feel for them as I know what it is like to be a new parent. You can be pretty well sleep deprived; you can be desperate to get out and have fun; you can be desperate to stay fit; you can be desperate to have adventures and use your adult mind. The opportunity to combine all of this with being a complete family must have been tempting.
Unfortunately I think they bit off more than they could chew...something I have done a few times and say...there for the grace of God go I.
There are also other elements I believe: living a life in air conditioning/the pressure of social media/posting new pictures on social media/trying out new baby equipment/a possible over-reliance on a hiking app or apps (perhaps).
That said, if I put my detective hat on. I would say:
1. A new trail...perhaps they could have researched it in a bit more detail and earlier than they did? Am I right in thinking they did this the day before the hike? (If they had done more research then I apologise!)
2. It's been years since I've scuba dived but we, as a club, were always encouraged to try out a new piece of equipment in a safe area like the leisure pool beforehand - just to get used to the new equipment/see its pros and cons before using it for real in more difficult conditions.
3. Always, always, always check the weather conditions before setting out. As my great uncle used to say...always know how you are going to get back before you set out. Have a Plan B if you start to encounter problems.
4. Personal locator beacons (PLBs) don't always work (rare but it happens), nevertheless, it is worth carrying one if there is no mobile/phone signal in the area you plan to hike.
5. Whether they had just set out on the trail or were coming back...the fact that Ellen was nearer the car than the group suggests that she knew something was wrong. She was going to get help and she had left baby and dog with dad for safety.
If I am right in thinking...Ellen did not have her mobile phone with her. Maybe she left dad with his phone in case she could get help to her family. Maybe a message could get through to them whilst she was away. Again, if I am right in thinking - sometimes SMS/text messages can slip through. (I live in the UK and this is possible in remote areas without reception - not sure what it is like in the US.)
6. It is possible that one by one they slipped away...Ellen left the group and succumbed herself. They may have carried the dog to that point plus the child...dad was exhausted by all the effort...yes...it does not bear thinking about.
Except that we have to. We have to try to learn from what went wrong.
I agree that we are going to have to start to build excess heat situations into our daily life as it is becoming, sadly, more and more common with global warming.
My tuppence or two dimes worth!