IF what JL claims is true, and my sense is that at least part of it is true, here are my thoughts at a high level:
First possibility in my mind is JL and NB did get in touch over craigslist, but it was to purchase drugs or sell JMs gun for drug money. These posts are often written in code so they wouldnt flag any TOS. JL has a desire to kill and has his own fantasies and found NB as an easy target. She left her phone in her apartment (that part we still dont know for sure) because she was planning on jumping in JLs car to make the transaction and be done with it. Later, JM realized his gun was missing and called in the missing persons report. Due to NBs past suicidal tendencies and her RO on SS, LE took it seriously very quickly. In this scenario, it was a thrill kill.
Second possibility IMO is that JLs claims are at least somewhat true. In this scenario, I speculate that NB desperately wanted to get away from her current situation, whether that included Domestic violence or not, and either didnt believe in suicide or simply couldnt bring herself to do it. She posted a CL ad, likely in code to avoid getting the post flagged. They texted a lot to get the details of what NB actually wanted done and why, and what payment would entail (my guess is the gun, but who knows). NB may have used her own phone but IMO JL likely used a burner phone or an easy-to-access app that allows you to change your number so he could have some level of security in moving forward with this plan. NB numbed herself with drugs and the rest unfolded.
Then, when LE had brief access to NBs phone before it died (according to affidavit), they saw some (if not all) of the text messages and/or the CL ad. They determined from that that this was an isolated incident and informed the public they werent in danger. They then took some time to go through all of NBs texts with JL (plus allllll the other social media data) and worked to identify JL through this fake number. It took some time.
The last two possibility Im working on right now are definitely the furthest stretch. Keep in mind this is all speculation.
Someone in NBs life texted as her (they do not have to physically have her phone to do so, there are apps where you can type in any number and send texts as if its from that number, when someone replies it goes to the app user, not the person who owns that number). This person made sure NB was heavily drug induced before telling her to meet JL outside to get some drugs, telling her to bring the gun for protection. Being so out of it, NB did as she was told and once in the car, JL started driving, thinking she was in on the plan. Perhaps it was even part of the plan that NB would act as if she didnt know what was going on, like a kidnapping - some people get off on sick fantasies like this.
Last possibility, again highly unlikely, is that NB wanted to frame/punish people in her life by setting up this plan (very Gone Girl). She wanted to use her boyfriends gun (this hasnt been confirmed) and she wanted it execution style - hoping LE would immediately suspect him.
This is all my own opinion given what we know right now. MOO. What other theories do you guys have? What are your thoughts on any of the above?
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