Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

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gitana1 said:
Why on earth would the American media downplay this? It makes no sense. If anything they like to hype things up. It's totally illogical.
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A couple of weeks ago the media here was full of articles downplaying it and insisting the flu was worse or it was no riskier than the flu. This was despite the known risks at the time. I've certainly seen my share of articles that are hyping it more. But I did notice that for a while they were absolutely downplaying it and not updating the readily available information we in this thread were following.

I remember how much they have hyped up other things like Ebola and found it downright odd the lack of deliberate hysteria induced in the news. That's what made it seem even more concerning to me. And I know for a fact in my own state they till very recently were not updating what was going on. Total silence. No discussion of anyone being monitored or exposed until suddenly one day we are told it's at least 200 people. Huge Asian community here, international airport and there was no update on anything till about 2 days ago.

That's not how the media normally works here either. So call me paranoid I'm ok with that.
 
beatrixpotter said:
A couple of weeks ago the media here was full of articles downplaying it and insisting the flu was worse or it was no riskier than the flu. This was despite the known risks at the time. I've certainly seen my share of articles that are hyping it more. But I did notice that for a while they were absolutely downplaying it and not updating the readily available information we in this thread were following.

I remember how much they have hyped up other things like Ebola and found it downright odd the lack of deliberate hysteria induced in the news. That's what made it seem even more concerning to me. And I know for a fact in my own state they till very recently were not updating what was going on. Total silence. No discussion of anyone being monitored or exposed until suddenly one day we are told it's at least 200 people. Huge Asian community here, international airport and there was no update on anything till about 2 days ago.

That's not how the media normally works here either. So call me paranoid I'm ok with that.
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My read on the situation is communist countries don't play well with media outside their own sources. Because its occurring in China and there are less than 20 cases in the U.S., not much to work with. Once it begins to escalate elsewhere, we will see more sensationalism.
 
Japan next up?????....

_____________________

Taxi driver in Japan tests positive for coronavirus

From journalist Isaac Yee in Hong Kong

A taxi driver in the Japanese capital Tokyo has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, Japanese state broadcaster NHK reported on Thursday.

According to NHK, the taxi driver said he had driven one customer that appeared to be Chinese. Japan's health ministry is currently investigating how the taxi driver was infected.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases spike as China sacks senior officials - CNN
 
What if... said:
“Of 102 confirmed cases in the city, at least 33 patients worked or shopped at a department store in the Baodi district, or had close contact with employees or customers, according to the Tianjin health authorities. Many of them had no history of travel to Wuhan, the city where the outbreak emerged.”

^^^THIS^^^

I’ve stated a few times that, IMO - there’s an anomaly with the numbers. The anomaly isn’t with the mortality rate - I really haven’t seen enough trustworthy data to even venture a guess at the true mortality rate. I believe the mortality rate IS MUCH HIGHER IN HUBEI, and I don’t believe excluding their numbers are going to paint the real picture. The mortality rate needs to take into consideration the entire circumstance. I would expect the confirmed cases outside of China are receiving intense study and treatment with the best facilities and doctors that money can buy. But overwhelm any healthcare system to the point of collapse, and the mortality rate will sky rocket.
To me, the anomaly lies within the incubation period, and/or the R0 factor. Watching the way this virus spreads is like looking at a delayed time bomb - a Trojan horse so to speak.
I’ve seen estimates ranging from R2 to R5. The difference between those two numbers is HUGE when you consider the fact that they are multiples of the rate of transmission.
1 person infects 2, those 2 infect 2 more each, etc,...

So six generations at R2:
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32
Six generations at R5
1, 5, 25, 125, 625, 3125

The R0 is really a variable - it will be different based on a multitude of factors. Density of population, quarantine procedures, access to healthcare and early diagnosis, etc

If we look at the figures from the excerpt above, and assuming there was only one person passing the infection at the mall - this would equate to an R33 !!!

The situation in Hubei, as well as the number of infected being reported on the cruise ship would also indicate a VERY HIGH R0 factor.

So the anomaly that I see that hasn’t made much sense thus far, is why haven’t we seen these high numbers from the return flights? Why haven’t we seen an explosion of cases around the areas where people in the US or UK have been with the general population prior to being tested and confirmed?

Those R0 numbers seem to be extremely low by comparison, at least so far.

My question is why??? I still believe we’re missing a large part of the whole picture.

We need to better understand why so many can get infected at one mall, why there’s such a rapid spread on the cruise ship, and why that apparently didn’t occur on long flights with recirculating air???

What variable is missing in this equation?

All MOO
Click to expand...

Excellent summary and questions.

JMO
I know they try to determine an "average" R0 factor, but I especially like this description you gave about R0 which rings true to me because the spreading can be greater in places that have large concentrations of people in small places.....

"The R0 is really a variable - it will be different based on a multitude of factors. Density of population, quarantine procedures, access to healthcare and early diagnosis, etc"

One thing I have been wondering about that may explain a missing variable is if its possible that this Virus affects a certain gene pool more than others or not?

Would there be something unique about a certain group of people that would be more susceptible to the Virus. I am not sure they know enough about it to determine if all humans can catch it equally or are certain groups of genetics more prone to it.
 
Japan confirms 1st coronavirus death as more infections reported

Japan confirms 1st coronavirus death as more infections reported

A Japanese woman in her 80s infected with the new coronavirus died Thursday, becoming the country's first confirmed fatality, the health minister said, as more cases of infection were reported besides hundreds on a quarantined cruise ship near Tokyo. The woman from Kanagawa Prefecture near the Japanese capital, who had not traveled overseas recently, was found to be infected with the virus after she died, health minister Katsunobu Kato told a press conference. She had been diagnosed with pneumonia and hospitalized since Feb. 1, the health ministry said, adding her breathing deteriorated on Feb. 6.....

In Wakayama Prefecture, a surgeon in his 50s became the first doctor in Japan to be infected with the virus, the local government said. It was not known whether he had close contact with visitors from China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

Dead woman found infected with coronavirus | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

The woman in her 80s, living in Kanagawa Prefecture, near Tokyo, visited a hospital on January 22 as she was suffering from fatigue. Her health conditions had been monitored until she was diagnosed with pneumonia and admitted to the hospital on February 1. Her respiratory condition deteriorated on February 6 and she was transported to another hospital. On Wednesday, her respiratory condition became worse and she underwent a test for the coronavirus. The test result that showed she was positive came out on Thursday after she died earlier in the day. She had no record of overseas travel.

OK, this begs a question. Did they not do scans on her to see the ground glass appearance etc before the test?
 
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Or maybe Hong Kong.....really?!?!? Takes 3 attempts at doctor before they figured it out?!??!
__________________________

Hong Kong now has 51 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus, according to the city's health department.

The latest patient is a 43-year-old man who lives in the northern Tuen Mun district, in the New Territories, Dr. Chuang Shuk-kwan of the Center for Health Protection, said at a news conference on Thursday.

Chuang said the man had eaten at a group dinner together with 12 other people, one of whom was the city's 47th confirmed case.

He had developed a cough on January 29 and then diarrhea two days later. According to Chuang, the man had visited a doctor three times -- on January 31, February 5 and February 8 -- before being admitted to Tuen Mun hospital on February 10.

Health authorities are examining 10 of the man's colleagues and three clients.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases spike as China sacks senior officials - CNN
 
Henry2326 said:
Japan next up?????....

_____________________

Taxi driver in Japan tests positive for coronavirus

From journalist Isaac Yee in Hong Kong

A taxi driver in the Japanese capital Tokyo has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, Japanese state broadcaster NHK reported on Thursday.

According to NHK, the taxi driver said he had driven one customer that appeared to be Chinese. Japan's health ministry is currently investigating how the taxi driver was infected.

Coronavirus live updates: Cases spike as China sacks senior officials - CNN
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I read this morning that the Olympic games held in Tokyo are still on for July. In the article below, it was apparently written before the new information, also I had read they have a death in Japan today. I know they are looking at big dollars spent and lost, but I hope this does not put more people at risk. I realize it's five months away, but they said the torch run will be in a month.

Tokyo, IOC officials reiterate that the Olympics are on

Japan records first coronavirus death, two taxi drivers test positive
 
WHO briefing starts in 12 minutes - I'll try to do ETA updates as usual, but in another post when it starts so I can ETA for 60 minutes.

Coronavirus outbreak: WHO to provide update on COVID-19 as cases soar | LIVE

 
LaborDayRN said:
If we're judging by the numbers, at this point you are FAR more likely to die from influenza than COVID-19.
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
Burden of Influenza
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But having a vaccine available makes it less scary for many of us.
 
JaneEyre said:
But having a vaccine available makes it less scary for many of us.
Click to expand...

JMO
Right. Besides the fact there is no actual preventative vaccine developed yet, the other important thing that I cringe about when I see a comparison saying the flu kills more each year is this new virus is.....well.....New. And still growing. We are nowhere near having it establish what its eventual overall worldwide impact will be.

The Flu has been around for years and there is much data available for it. With this new virus, we are nowhere near able to tell where this thing is headed. It may end up fizzling out (i hope) or after a few years, we may find the yearly deaths exceeding the flu deaths. We just have no idea yet because its, well, "New".
 
Hatfield said:
JMO
Right. Besides the fact there is no actual preventative vaccine developed yet, the other important thing that I cringe about when I see a comparison saying the flu kills more each year is this new virus is.....well.....New. And still growing. We are nowhere near having it establish what its eventual overall worldwide impact will be.

The Flu has been around for years and there is much data available for it. With this new virus, we are nowhere near able to tell where this thing is headed. It may end up fizzling out (i hope) or after a few years, we may find the yearly deaths exceeding the flu deaths. We just have no idea yet because its, well, "New".
Click to expand...
plus SO MUCH MORE CONTAGIOUS I don't know the stats and have no facts to back that up, but I'm not blind :)
 
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