Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

[Amonet]

Wow. So she was spreading it around for WEEKS and only tested because she was in critical condition. So how many have mild flu and cold symptoms who never get tested? I have a feeling this is way way more widespread than recognized. Japanese taxi driver who can recall only driving one person who appeared to be Chinese?

I'm glad that the WHO briefing addressed this question today as it's something I have been wondering about, too.

This is from dixiegirl's post above:

re iceberg analysis, how big is the iceberg? A. In the absence of serology testing in ER's they have been testing thousands of samples and at the moment we are not seeing COVID in samples in Singapore and China. It's speculation, but therefore we think we are knowing of where cases are and it's not so more widespread. If we look outside China, over 400 cases and 4-5 weeks... only 22% evolved from local transmission. All of those cases, only 8 are not linked to our identified chains. Without serology test, we cannot say without absolute certainty how wide in communities.

So this is good news to me that they've been doing these random tests in patients who have presented with respiratory problems but not really suspected of Covid-19.

We obviously don't know if it's going to stay this way, but it's a good sign for the present.

 

[sloane7777]

Why? These people are in quarantine. The person they’re talking about is under isolation in the hospital. I mean I think we’ve learned from Ebola which is super contagious. No one has both contracted and died from Ebola in the states.

We were lucky with Ebola Thomas was headed to a party after his first release only he didn't feel like it so he skipped it (thank goodness) my company services the hospital in SA and I just don't trust it , Ebola got out to the nurses very quickly I'm glad they survived but we don't know about this one and I'm a worry wort

 

[asyousay]

If one cases of Covid-19 in the capital is reason to not carry on as normal for the time being, what are 10,000 cases of flu per year in London (I made up that number, I have no idea what the actual yearly flu figures are, but logically I know it's far more than 1).

I would think that after one gets off the tube, or a bus, is a good time to use hand sanitiser, especially if you've been holding the poles.

The flu may kill but when I last checked up about the flu they didn’t Quarantine 50 million people. I also have elderly parents who I don’t want them to catch it and they have the flu jab so again not concerned about Flu.


IMO

 

[Amonet]

how in the hell would the app. know if people start off asymptomatic??

I can only imagine that the government app would be tied into the contact tracing for official cases? And then it would have to hold memory for where people have traveled and then cross-reference the two data sets to see if there's been close contact between the individual using the app and a confirmed case since the presumed point of infection.

So let's say I download a similar app (that I have designed, because I don't know exactly how their app works).

You download my app and your phone GPS keeps a track of where you go each day. Then I get the info from a confirmed case on where they've been since their presumed infection day and upload that data. You then look at your app and say that last Monday you were sitting in the same doctor's surgery as the person who later tested positive. You then self-isolate and call an official health helpline, start taking your temperature daily, etc.

 

[Medstudies]

I’ve got nothing to add to this....
https://chinaheritage.net/journal/2019-ncov-a-teaching-moment-spring-term-2020/
2019-nCoV — A Teaching Moment, Spring Term 2020



“When only a single ash in an age of conflagration alights on the head of a single person it feels as though the whole weight of a mountain is bearing down on them.’ [This is a quotation from Fang Fang, the pen name of Wang Fang, a well-known writer based in Wuhan, Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak of the coronavirus. See: 方方, ‘時代的一粒灰，落在個人頭上，就是一座山‘, 10 February 2020]“
...

‘Lies written in ink can’t hide truths recorded in blood.’

I would also note:

‘Some people strain in their efforts to hold onto worldly wealth and power although they know full well they can’t take it to the grave. To that greedy end they devour their own hearts and conscience. As the lies come easier and faster, they are even will to cast family, friends, as well as compatriots, into the yawning chasm.’

History will not disappear simply because you chose to ignore it; nor can you slough off responsibility simply by avoiding things. In his novel The PlagueAlbert Camus wrote:

‘There’s no question of heroism in all this. It’s a matter of common decency. That’s an idea which may make some people smile, but the only means of fighting a plague is — common decency.’

...
The reason for this is that [as Lu Xun wrote shortly before he died]:

‘…all that infinite space, those countless people out there — they are linked in some way with me.’

 

[Amonet]

The flu may kill but when I last checked up about the flu they didn’t Quarantine 50 million people. I also have elderly parents who I don’t want them to catch it and they have the flu jab so again not concerned about Flu.


IMO

The flu's been going around for so long that we just accept that it will affect people every year, and health services/hospitals plan for those numbers every year.

As you point out, the flu vaccine has been a fantastic development. That might have even led to hospitals reducing bed numbers over the past 20 years due to more at-risk people getting vaccinated for flu and pneumonia and not needing a week or two in a hospital bed or ICU.

This one is new, unexpected, unknown, unprepared for. So they're taking extra precautions that they don't take with flu.

 

[MJPeony]

I am increasingly interested in the veracity of the claimed “14 day incubation period”. This seems to me to be CRUCIAL to ending this virus as an epidemic (or possible pandemic).

IF the 14 day incubation becomes inaccurate, we have a huge problem, as everyone who has been exposed and then released after only 14 days will be huge risks to general population.

That’s how this would really take hold. IMO.

Accurate confirmed incubation period is crucial!




MOO.

 

[Tadpole12]

Body bags: it would be a concern if there was a new demand for x number of body bags or if the Chinese government ordered textile factories to begin manufacturing body bags.

(Saw some youtube footage of three deceased children being transported in one body bag.)

ETA there is the r0 graph somewhere on WHO site?

 

[Amonet]

I worried a bit when I saw this headline, as I thought it said "self-immolate" instead of "self-isolate"!

'Many more' may self-isolate over UK coronavirus

Anyway, this is a worthwhile quote to take from it, from Prof Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer:

He said: "We basically have a strategy which depends upon four tactical aims: the first one is to contain; the second of these is to delay; the third of these is to do the science and the research; and the fourth is to mitigate so we can brace the NHS."

Prof Whitty added: "If we are going to get an outbreak here in the UK - and this is an if not a when - then putting it back in time, into the summer period away from the winter pressures on the NHS, buying us a bit more time to understand the virus better, possibly having some seasonal advantage, is a big advantage."

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Today's Dr. video. NOTE: He is also a sleep specialist, so for the last two days, and next two days, he's focusing on what he knows as it relates to fending off coronavirus infections and sleep in general for your health... take it with a grain of salt but he's been so educational I'm still following him.

Today he speaks to potentially better if you have had good sleep habits (hours and efficiency) prior to an immunization. Yesterday's video he went into physiology of sleep and how your body heals and fights infections better during sleep.. just like my gramma said, "you heal when you sleep". Who knew gramma was so knowledgeable.

I am increasingly interested in the veracity of the claimed “14 day incubation period”. This seems to me to be CRUCIAL to ending this virus as an epidemic (or possible pandemic).

IF the 14 day incubation becomes inaccurate, we have a huge problem, as everyone who has been exposed and then released after only 14 days will be huge risks to general population.

That’s how this would really take hold. IMO.

Accurate confirmed incubation period is crucial!

MOO.

The one person that did 24 days was in one study, and it was one person out of 1,000 that was the outlier (Ha! Ben even speaks to such in his video earlier this morning, posted upthread). Also, some think it was a reinfection... 14 days seems to be working so far... we shall see though! Also, most of the folks brought back from Wuhan had already been isolating prior to plane trip iirc.

 

[sloane7777]

I am increasingly interested in the veracity of the claimed “14 day incubation period”. This seems to me to be CRUCIAL to ending this virus as an epidemic (or possible pandemic).

IF the 14 day incubation becomes inaccurate, we have a huge problem, as everyone who has been exposed and then released after only 14 days will be huge risks to general population.

That’s how this would really take hold. IMO.

Accurate confirmed incubation period is crucial!




MOO.

YES!!! and I DON'T KNOW AND DANG IT YOU DON'T KNOW ! (THEM) right!

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Body bags: it would be a concern if there was a new demand for x number of body bags or if the Chinese government ordered textile factories to begin manufacturing body bags.

(Saw some youtube footage of three deceased children being transported in one body bag.)

ETA there is the r0 graph somewhere on WHO site?

There are papers out with different R0's we have discussed upthread, and most are higher than the flu is. WHO said previously much more studies need to be done and would take time to know this.

 

[coastal]

I cant find any interviews from recovered victims etc , 6800 in China supposedly recovered per CNN but why aren't we hearing from any and I know this is DM but its scary

Does this satellite image show the scale of China's coronavirus cremations? | Daily Mail Online

I've been reading all the posts in this thread, and I am not usually prone to panic, but this image sure does make me want to hide under the bed! Are people just dropping dead in the streets in Wuhan?! (The caption reads: Health workers in protective suits stand by the body of a man wearing a face mask who died in Wuhan. China has decreed that virus victims be quickly cremated.)

Thank you all who are trying to make sense of this terrible thing.

From your link:

 

[asyousay]

No idea if Fox News is reliable

North Korea 'clearly lying' about coronavirus cases, expert says

 

[beatrixpotter]

This is awesome. Thank you. I guess I better get back to focusing on my sleep. This has been something I've been working on for a while. (harder with small children) I feel night and day better when I get truly good sleep.

Today's Dr. video. NOTE: He is also a sleep specialist, so for the last two days, and next two days, he's focusing on what he knows as it relates to fending off coronavirus infections and sleep in general for your health... take it with a grain of salt but he's been so educational I'm still following him.

Today he speaks to potentially better if you have had good sleep habits (hours and efficiency) prior to an immunization. Yesterday's video he went into physiology of sleep and how your body heals and fights infections better during sleep.. just like my gramma said, "you heal when you sleep". Who knew gramma was so knowledgeable.

The one person that did 24 days was in one study, and it was one person out of 1,000 that was the outlier (Ha! Ben even speaks to such in his video earlier this morning, posted upthread). Also, some think it was a reinfection... 14 days seems to be working so far... we shall see though! Also, most of the folks brought back from Wuhan had already been isolating prior to plane trip iirc.

 

[beatrixpotter]

No idea if Fox News is reliable

North Korea 'clearly lying' about coronavirus cases, expert says

Probably as reliable as the next unless they are talking about something deeply divisive or partisan.

 

[Tadpole12]

There are papers out with different R0's we have discussed upthread, and most are higher than the flu is. WHO said previously much more studies need to be done and would take time to know this.

Theoretically, how long could you extend the period of quarantine,
given the possibility of double exposure to the virus within a time frame?
Ie there is the known of 14 vs 28 days.

Chinese press note the case of a woman who did not exhibit symptoms till day 42? iirc although they continue to investigate her possible contacts.

 

[margarita25]

Coronavirus face mask shortage threatens UK dentists

From the above link:

Coronavirus: London COVID-19 patient took Uber to A&E

All staff who came into contact with the patient have been traced, Mr Travi added, while Uber has suspended the account of the driver after liaising with Public Health England (PHE).

"We received a request from Public Health England for information about a passenger who has now been confirmed as having coronavirus," said an Uber spokeswoman.

"Out of an abundance of caution, we temporarily suspended the account of the driver who transported the individual to hospital and we remain in close contact with Public Health England.

"We have a dedicated online portal for public health authorities to contact Uber for information about riders and drivers, and we will take action on any user accounts on the recommendation of those authorities."

PHE consultant Rachel Thorn said: "We are in contact with Uber to ensure the driver receives advice and information on what to do should they feel unwell in the coming days.

"As the journey was less than 15 minutes, the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and are not considered high risk."“

 

[Tadpole12]

This is awesome. Thank you. I guess I better get back to focusing on my sleep. This has been something I've been working on for a while. (harder with small children) I feel night and day better when I get truly good sleep.

I know, uninterrupted sleep is precious.

 

[asyousay]

From the above link:

Coronavirus: London COVID-19 patient took Uber to A&E

All staff who came into contact with the patient have been traced, Mr Travi added, while Uber has suspended the account of the driver after liaising with Public Health England (PHE).

"We received a request from Public Health England for information about a passenger who has now been confirmed as having coronavirus," said an Uber spokeswoman.

"Out of an abundance of caution, we temporarily suspended the account of the driver who transported the individual to hospital and we remain in close contact with Public Health England.

"We have a dedicated online portal for public health authorities to contact Uber for information about riders and drivers, and we will take action on any user accounts on the recommendation of those authorities."

PHE consultant Rachel Thorn said: "We are in contact with Uber to ensure the driver receives advice and information on what to do should they feel unwell in the coming days.

"As the journey was less than 15 minutes, the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and are not considered high risk."“

it is winter and no open windows in the car you would assume considering the storms we have had in London so they may not of had sexual intercourse but still close enough to catch it if they sneezed or coughed.

IMO

MOO