Hurricane Jose September 2017

[Henry2326]

Both EURO and GFS model hinting at development in the islands, see small marker in both models, end of next week. Only a hint...watching....

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[Henry2326]

Overnight models continue showing him skirting the North Atlantic coast early to mid next week.

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[Henry2326]

NHC expecting run off Africa again in the next week. Both models hint at it also.

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[Henry2326]

6:00 GFS model continues to forecast skirting the North Atlantic coast early next week.

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[Henry2326]

Watch for the possibility of Lee forming off the coast of Central Africa

Honey: here it comes.

Invest 96 and 97 on the way. 97 might be a tropical storm tonight but will probably curve North.
Invest 96 is the one to watch.

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[Henry2326]

Jose models continue to show skirting the coast. There is some thought that the high will drop back and block it causing the storm to move further West. Watching....

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[Henry2326]

Invest 96, one of the 2 African storms is expected to be over the Dominican Republic end of next week (Thursday). Both models pull it toward the North Atlantic similar path of Jose. Not in the 5 day cone yet, so forecast will continue to change.

Invest 97 is expected to curve north with no impact to land.

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[Spellbound]

One of our members previously posted ([FONT=.SFUIDisplay-Bold]Archangel85)[/FONT] their location as Puerto Rico. keeping an eye on this Jose. Stay safe there, Archangel!

 

[Henry2326]

One of our members previously posted ([FONT=.SFUIDisplay-Bold]Archangel85)[/FONT] their location as Puerto Rico. keeping an eye on this Jose. Stay safe there, Archangel!

Hope they are safe and vigilantly watching this one. NHC has it at 90% possibly development tonight. I've not yet seen an occurrence where it didn't happen after they had that high a percentage.

Most current models below.

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[Henry2326]

Recent EURO models of forecasted Jose path.....the ultimate pic of "spaghetti model". Too much confusion. We know from watching forecast for Irma that when it's this spread out, there is not an established agreed forecast path. Watching...could go east or west..

http://spaghettimodels.com

.

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[Henry2326]

Jose continues to strengthen forecasted to skirt the North Atlantic coast Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Hurricane watches could occur as far North as North Carolina. It is predicted to be a wide storm so impacts could be felt further inland although the storm center stays offshore. Both models predict Cat1/cat2 intensity.

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._uv850&runtime=2017091606&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=0

http://spaghettimodels.com

 

[CARIIS]

Same site

Number 15 thankfully, at this time, is not in conductive conditions to grow the future Lee should become Lee in the next 24 hours

 

[CARIIS]

tid bits

this season:

second most expensive season

most destructive since 2005

5th wettest hurricane on record Harvey

season began 6 weeks earlier than typical

second season in history with one starting in April

Harvey second fastest intnsifier in history

Wilma first birth to 5 in 54 hrs

Sandy biggest diameter

2005 busiest with 28

Most expensive at this time

Katrina

Irma

Sandy

Harvey

Ike

fatalties

1780 22,000

Mitch 1998 19,000

Ivan most tornados at 120

Fastest forward moving one 1938 70 mph --Henry (you prob have !) check this one out an amazing story. New England one.

longest lasting 27 days

Irma second longest (by three hours) duration at cat 5 37 hours at sustained winds of 185 (there criteria for sustained is one minute interval at that speed)

Biggest wave 95 feet (confirmed) 98 ft

Smallest Marco 11 miles wide

tightest eye Wilma

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Fastest_intensification

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

 

[Henry2326]

Invest 96 is expected to develop and be in the lesser antilles Monday/Tuesday of next week.

Although, as we know, its way too early to pinpoint US landfall, all 3 models, Euro, GFS, and Canada have a landfall on East Coast Tuesday, 9/26 with cat3 intensity level.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...uv850&runtime=2017091600&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[CARIIS]

Water temps ahead of Jose hot hot hot

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28;-67;2&l=temperature&t=20170906/21

 

[Henry2326]

Water temps ahead of Jose hot hot hot

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28;-67;2&l=temperature&t=20170906/21

Yep....expecting it to intensify but not beyond cat2. The surge from cat2 would significant though.

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[Henry2326]

Here is a better pic of ensemble forecast runs of Invest 96. A lot of uncertainty....although increasing assurance that it will affect the islands.....last thing they need right now.

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[Henry2326]

TS watches have been issued for portions of the eastern Caribbean as #PTC15 is expected to become #Maria and affect the area next week.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://spaghettimodels.com/


Wow....came faster than I though. These fine folks do not need this .

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[Henry2326]

PTC15 update from NHC

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

Started a Maria thread....

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=349624

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