I believe the Ramseys are innocent.

[BlueCrab]

Where is the proof that Chet Ubowski doesn't believe Patsy wrote the note, as you state?

Page 421 PMPT pb: "The police had hung their hat on the Ramseys as culprits, but they were still unable to provide the DA's office with enough evidence to warrant an arrest. Neither Alex Hunter nor the police were ready to admit that the case was unsolvable, however. Knowing that the ransom note was the best piece of evidence they had, Hunter hoped that the CBI's handwriting experts would find something solid, but Chet Ubowski would not take the leap and say Patsy had written the note. The CBI expert refused to tailor his conclusions to the needs of the police and the DA."

It's true that Ubowski had a "gut feeling" that Patsy wrote the note, but he was professional enough to follow the objective analyses of the handwriting examinations, including his own.

Patsy may have written the note, but the professional analyses of the CBI's six examiners concluded it was a very low probability that she did.

JMO

 

[Cherokee]

Page 421 PMPT pb: "The police had hung their hat on the Ramseys as culprits, but they were still unable to provide the DA's office with enough evidence to warrant an arrest. Neither Alex Hunter nor the police were ready to admit that the case was unsolvable, however. Knowing that the ransom note was the best piece of evidence they had, Hunter hoped that the CBI's handwriting experts would find something solid, but Chet Ubowski would not take the leap and say Patsy had written the note. The CBI expert refused to tailor his conclusions to the needs of the police and the DA."

It's true that Ubowski had a "gut feeling" that Patsy wrote the note, but he was professional enough to follow the objective analyses of the handwriting examinations, including his own.

Patsy may have written the note, but the professional analyses of the CBI's six examiners concluded it was a very low probability that she did.

JMO

No, they did not.

BC, you know I respect you as a poster, but I don't understand why you continue to beat this dead horse of an absolute falsehood.

The CBI examiners DID NOT conclude "it was a very low probability" that Patsy wrote the note. Nowhere in ANY document does it say that.

Just because the examiners would not say with 100% feeling Patsy wrote the note, DOES NOT mean it was a low probability. They were willing to say it was probable she wrote the note, but they couldn't verify it by 100% for a court of law.

BC, you have GOT to quit posting this misinformation, or so help me, I shall have to strangle you on the spot.



IMO

 

[less0305]

Does Blue Crab know that the author of that book he/she is quoting from is nothing more than that....just an author? The author of the book can interpret and word things ever how they want to, but that doesn't make it a fact. It's just like the bible....every minister out there can interpret the writings in different ways. I would have to see a signed verified document from the CBI that says these words exactly, "We find a very low probability that this PR's handwriting," and although I'm new at this JBR forum, I don't think there is such a document that spells it out and is signed and certified by the CBI.

 

[Britt]

Just because the examiners would not say with 100% feeling Patsy wrote the note, DOES NOT mean it was a low probability. They were willing to say it was probable she wrote the note, but they couldn't verify it by 100% for a court of law.

Exactly, Cherokee.

It's a loooooong way between very low probability and can't say 100% for sure. For instance, BlueCrab, you couldn't say for 100% sure that I'm a fake blonde, but that's nowhere near saying there's a very low probability that I am.

Just as I thought, Chet Ubowski DOES believe Patsy wrote the note and he never said otherwise. The fact that he wasn't willing to sign it in blood or let LE put words in his mouth doesn't change his basic opinion.

I'm with Cherokee. Please, BCrab, this spin undermines your otherwise viable theory. Instead, why don't you share the deleted portions of the interview tapes? Please, pretty please?

 

[Shylock]

Patsy may have written the note, but the professional analyses of the CBI's six examiners concluded it was a very low probability that she did.

BC, why do you keep repeating this "SIX" number? Two of your six were not hired by the CBI, but bought and paid for opinions by the Ramseys. Their opinion is worthless--just like that of John Douglas who was hired to develop a profile of an intruder.

That leaves you with "FOUR" examiners working for the CBI. Out of those FOUR, we know Ubowski believes patsy wrote the note, (even if he is not sure enough about it to testify in court to that effect). And Speckin has stated the unusual position that while he can't identify Patsy as the author (due to the disguised writing), the chances of anyone else breaking into the house and matching that many exemplars is virtually impossible.

So that leaves only TWO experts working for the CBI, both of which cannot eliminate Patsy as being the author no matter how low they put the possibility that she wrote it.

And the grand tally still remains: When you all up ALL the experts, 4 from Darnay, 4 from the CBI, and 2 from Team Ramsey - you have TEN HANDWRITING EXPERTS that can't eliminate Patsy as being the author of the note.

 

[Sprocket]

I've always appreciated what this site has to say about the statistical probabilities of the matching letter combinations.... it's not handwriting analysis, it's a bit different.... Helps to understand those winning powerball odds....

http://gemart.8m.com/ramsey/note/index.html

 

[BlueCrab]

BC, why do you keep repeating this "SIX" number? Two of your six were not hired by the CBI, but bought and paid for opinions by the Ramseys. Their opinion is worthless--just like that of John Douglas who was hired to develop a profile of an intruder.

That leaves you with "FOUR" examiners working for the CBI. Out of those FOUR, we know Ubowski believes patsy wrote the note, (even if he is not sure enough about it to testify in court to that effect). And Speckin has stated the unusual position that while he can't identify Patsy as the author (due to the disguised writing), the chances of anyone else breaking into the house and matching that many exemplars is virtually impossible.

So that leaves only TWO experts working for the CBI, both of which cannot eliminate Patsy as being the author no matter how low they put the possibility that she wrote it.

And the grand tally still remains: When you all up ALL the experts, 4 from Darnay, 4 from the CBI, and 2 from Team Ramsey - you have TEN HANDWRITING EXPERTS that can't eliminate Patsy as being the author of the note.

Shylock,

First of all, the handwriting was obviously disguised, so NO ONE can technically be eliminated as the author of the note, including YOU (unless, of course, the opportunity to write it didn't exist). Only experts, after examining the exemplars and the note in general, can take educated guesses as to who likely could have written the note and who likely can be eliminated as the writer of the note. Many of the 73 suspects examined by the CBI couldn't be eliminated either.

The six examiners used by the CBI had far superior exemplars to examine than did Hoffman's four examiners. And only the CBI's examiners had the ORIGINAL note to examine -- an important factor. They concluded that Patsy COULD have written the note (just as YOU could have), but the probability of Patsy writing it was very low.

You continue to attack the two experienced professional examiners hired by the Ramseys, so lets take a look at them. Howard Rile was a former handwriting analyst for the CBI and was working as a professional in California. Lloyd Cunningham was a retired San Francisco police handwriting expert who had worked on the Zodiac serial killings. The two experts examined the original ransom note on May 18, 1997. They were observed by Steve Thomas, Tom Trujillo, and evidence technician Pat Beck as they worked. Later that day Rile and Cunningham made their presentation:

Page 296, PMPT pb "They had noted resemblances to some of Patsy's lettering as well as some variances. Their verdict: Patsy didn't write the note. The variables outnumbered the similarities. Hofstrom and DeMuth listened carefully. The experts' presentation seemed to have some merit."

JMO

 

[Afton]

I posted this on the DNA thread, but I think it is applicable here as well.

FROM THE NEW YORKER MAGAZINE

January 11, 1998

excerpt: see url below with full article

Hunter: "The public may be seeing the Ramseys more as prime suspects than we are. I've never before seen anything like the battery upon these people who, wealthy or not, are not receiving the presumption of innocence. And I am troubled by that."

"The cops became so convinced that the Ramseys did it," Hunter says, "that they've never been able to look at the evidence objectively."

On his to-do list is re-interviewing John and Patsy Ramsey and formally interviewing their son, Burke. There are several clues that were
apparently not pursued on Eller's watch, and some of them could point to an intruder scenario , that is, that someone from outside the house killed the child.

DNA that is not from the parents was found on the body, and police are now taking swab samples from the inside of people's mouths. "Even though it's a long shot," Hunter says, "if a swab sample did provide a DNA match to the DNA taken from JonBenet's body then police would be able to connect a second person to the murder." Such a connection might disclose the origin of another clue that has remained a mystery since the autopsy.

Dark fibers found on JonBenet's labia may not be consistent with anything owned by the Ramseys. Similarly two types of shoe prints, one found near the body on the first day of the investigation, do not match any footwear known to belong to the Ramseys.

http://www.cnn.com/US/9801/11/jonbenet/

 

[Shylock]

You continue to attack the two experienced professional examiners hired by the Ramseys, so lets take a look at them. Howard Rile was a former handwriting analyst for the CBI and was working as a professional in California. Lloyd Cunningham was a retired San Francisco police handwriting expert who had worked on the Zodiac serial killings. The two experts examined the original ransom note on May 18, 1997. They were observed by Steve Thomas, Tom Trujillo, and evidence technician Pat Beck as they worked. Later that day Rile and Cunningham made their presentation:

BC, you still are saying SIX examiners hired by the CBI, but there were only FOUR.

And you are totally missing the point about Rile and Cunningham. They might have been given a look at the actual ransom note but who cares! All they saw of John and Patsy's handwriting examples were what John gave them. They saw NONE of the samples the BPD had collected from the house which were written before the crime.

Donald Foster proved that Patsy completely changed her writing style after the crime, and that's all Rile and Cunningham saw, Patsy's post-crime manipulated writing. I'll bet Rile and Cunningham never even got to see a "manuscript a" that Patsy wrote for comparison.

That's why the conclusions of Rile and Cunningham are worthless--garbage in, garbage out.

 

[Toth]

Donald Foster proved that Patsy completely changed her writing style after the crime.

The only thing that Don Foster proved is that he is an utter idiot who is available to the highest bidder.

 

[Shylock]

The only thing that Don Foster proved is that he is an utter idiot who is available to the highest bidder.

Sorry Toth, but Foster presented cold hard facts which are not dependent on the person presenting them in any way, shape, or form. Regardless of what you, me, or anyone else thinks of the man, those facts can't be denied.

 

[Toth]

You are perhaps referring to the 'absolutely certain of Patsy's innocence' until he learned that the Ramseys were not paying their experts and then he offered his services to the BPD with 'absolute certainty of Patsy's authorship'.

 

[Shylock]

You are perhaps referring to the 'absolutely certain of Patsy's innocence' until he learned that the Ramseys were not paying their experts.

No I'm refering to his "absolutely certain of Patsy's innocence" until he SAW THE EVIDENCE, Toth.

And please keep lies at the Swamp where they belong Toth--The Ramseys paid ALL their experts, including John Douglas and the handwriting experts Rile and Cunningham. They might have been hired by the Ramsey lawyers, but those costs were past right on to Uncle Johnny Boy and his "do anything to keep us out of prison" checkbook.

 

[BlueCrab]

Shylock,

Please don't try to revise history with respect to how many handwriting examiners were professionally employed to study the ransom note.

Regardless of who hired them, there were six examiners under the auspices of the CBI during the criminal investigation, and four used by Darnay Hoffman in the Wolf v Ramsey civil lawsuit. The BPD and the DA all accepted the credentials and the results of the six examiners used by the CBI -- who concluded there was only a very low probability that Patsy wrote the note.

It was Hoffman who hand-picked four anti-Ramsey examiners, at least two who had personal bones to pick, and used their reports to make it appear Patsy wrote the ransom note. They failed miserably and were shredded.

Shylock, please try to accept the results as reported by respected professionals who had the original note and all of the exemplars to study: Patsy could have written the note, but it was highly unlikely that she did.

JMO

 

[Spade]

Gideon Epstein, who I consider the dean of American document examiners, stated in his Wolf case deposition that he was 100% positive that Patsy wrote the fake ransom note. Here is Epstein's response to LinWad's questions:

15 Q. Now, you gave a Rule 26 report to

16 Mr. Hoffman containing a conclusion of yours
17 that Patsy Ramsey authored the ransom note; did
18 you not, sir?
19 A. I did.
20 Q. What is your degree of certainty
21 yourself as you sit here today that Patsy Ramsey
22 wrote the note?
23 A. I am absolutely certain that she
24 wrote the note.
25 Q. Is that 60 percent certain?
0127
1 A. No, that's 100 percent certain.
2 Q. You are 100 percent certain that
3 Patsy Ramsey wrote the ransom note in this case;
4 is that your testimony?
5 A. Yes, it is.
6 Q. And the word 100 percent came out of
7 your mouth, not mine; correct?
8 A. That's correct.

 

[BlueCrab]

Gideon Epstein, who I consider the dean of American document examiners, stated in his Wolf case deposition that he was 100% positive that Patsy wrote the fake ransom note. Here is Epstein's response to LinWad's questions:

15 Q. Now, you gave a Rule 26 report to

16 Mr. Hoffman containing a conclusion of yours
17 that Patsy Ramsey authored the ransom note; did
18 you not, sir?
19 A. I did.
20 Q. What is your degree of certainty
21 yourself as you sit here today that Patsy Ramsey
22 wrote the note?
23 A. I am absolutely certain that she
24 wrote the note.
25 Q. Is that 60 percent certain?
0127
1 A. No, that's 100 percent certain.
2 Q. You are 100 percent certain that
3 Patsy Ramsey wrote the ransom note in this case;
4 is that your testimony?
5 A. Yes, it is.
6 Q. And the word 100 percent came out of
7 your mouth, not mine; correct?
8 A. That's correct.

Spade,

I'm not a fan of Judge Carnes' reasoning she used in dismissing the Wolf v Ramsey lawsuit because she relied almost totally on Lou Smit's side of the "inruder/no intruder" issue, but there's some useable information in her opinion. With respect to Gideon Epstein's claim that he is 100% certain that Patsy wrote the ransom note, this is what she had to say:

"First, Epstein did not consult the original ransom note nor obtain original exemplars from Mrs. Ramsey. Second, as noted by defendants, Epstein deviated from the very methodology that he has previously asserted was necessary to make a reasonable judgment. Most significant to the Court in its determination that Epstein's conclusion cannot carry the day for the plaintiff, however, is the unanimity of opinion among six other experts that Mrs. Ramsey cannot be determined to have been the writer of the note. The Boulder Police Department and District Attorney's Office had consulted six other handwriting experts, all of whom reviewed the original ransom note and exemplars.

"Mr. Epstein may sincerely believe that Mrs. Ramsey wrote the note and the jury may well credit his sincerity. Nevertheless, no matter how earnest Mr. Epstein may be, the fact remains that he has not explained his basis for reaching absolute certainty in his conclusion."

JMO

 

[Shylock]

Shylock,
Please don't try to revise history with respect to how many handwriting examiners were professionally employed to study the ransom note.

Trying to revise history? - Hardly, BC. The FACT that you want to ignore is that TWO of the 6 experts (you keep refering to) were bought and paid for by Team Ramsey. That's a fact that can't be ignored.

I'm surprised at you being such a hypocrite, BC. You want to ignore the hired opinions of Rile and Cunningham, but I sure as heck bet you'll be one of the first to point out that John Douglas' opinion was a purchased commodity because it blows your whole BDI+ theory right out the window.

The only important thing about the Rile and Cunningham opinion(s) worth noting, is that even after they WERE PAID to find the writing didn't match Patsy's, they STILL wouldn't put their reputations on the line and say she could be completely eliminated as the author.

Imagine hiring a plumber BlueCrab, and when the job is done you still have leaky pipes, which the plumber refuses to completely fix to your satisfaction, because doing so may lock him out of future job considerations... Rile and Cunningham were no fools, just smart business men.

 

[Spade]

Tom Miller, another of Darnay's handwriting experts, did have original samples of Patsy Ramsey's handwriting. He acquired these samples from his wife Judith Phillips. Miller is also 100% positive that Patsy wrote the fake ransom note.

 

[BlueCrab]

Tom Miller, another of Darnay's handwriting experts, did have original samples of Patsy Ramsey's handwriting. He acquired these samples from his wife Judith Phillips. Miller is also 100% positive that Patsy wrote the fake ransom note.

I agree that Tom Miller's 1997 affidavit that outlined his methodology in arriving at his conclusion was the most impressive of Hoffman's examiners, but Miller was personally pissed off at the Ramseys. That attitude would be hard to be kept from unconsciously creeping into his conclusion. Handwriting analyses are subjective.

Please keep in mind that I don't eliminate Patsy as the writer of the note -- she may have written it. But I do think it most likely the note had already been written when the Ramseys got up very early that morning and found JonBenet dead. IMO Burke and at least one other child, perhaps one of them a teen, wrote the note. Even John Ramsey said the note sounded childish.

JMO

JMO

 

[Spade]

I disagree Bluecrab. Miller's analysis of a copy of the ransom note and several exemplars of Patsy's writing preceded his Haddon orchestrated run-in with the Jefferson County DA and his marriage to Judith Phillips. IMO he had no ake to grind when he determined Patsy was the author of the fake ransom note.