IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[superbee]

As I said before he probally knew the house across the lake was empty and probally knows his neighbors habits. It was very hot that day and homes have windows shut and air on. It was during the time people are normally working.

So the weather was hot that day.....I don't have a quote, but for some reason thought it was cloudy and had rained that morning.

 

[SapphireSteel]

The "Bump and Run" method seems to be the MO dujour. See Shunick case.

Vehicle knocks Lyric off bike. Driver gets out. Offers to take Lyric to the hospital and Elizabeth goes along for the ride. UNSUB says he doesnt have enough room for the bikes. Leaves the bikes where found.....

BTW: Did the bikes have any sign of damage?

A couple of things -

The bikes were not damaged.

Where exactly did he "bump" them? Vehicles are not allowed on the bike path?

tia.

 

[cindersoot]

But you went AFTER the abduction right?

People would be keeping their kids away now.

On that Friday, the lake was full of people hanging out and relaxing.

How do you know for sure the lake was full of people hanging out and relaxing?

 

[GrainneDhu]

WebSleuths: Excusing Homemakers From Housework Since 1999

Well, it's not like you lose your chance to do housework if you put it off for a day... or 60. It will be there when you're ready to do it.

 

[cindersoot]

Random question, no theory or suspicion behind it... do people have vacation homes on this lake? Or is it mostly residents who are there full time?

Residents.

 

[krimzen]

I just wanted to pop in real quick & introduce myself to ya'll too-I lurk a lot, but I'm not a creeple. LOL I am a gramma of 3 Blessings and mom of three awesome adult kids.
Been a midwesterner all my life, hometown girl. I live next door to the house I was raised in. Because I like to live in a house & eat, etc., I work full time. I found this forum & began following Baby Lisa. It is very scary that missing people are becoming an epidemic in this country. I worry for my grandbabies having to grow up in these times. It is amazing the wealth of knowledge that comes together in these forums. My prayers for ALL the cases covered here.

 

[GGE]

Just throwing spaghetti at the wall here..

What if:

2) The girls in the video are not the girls *SBM*

I'm just thinking about that comment made in that article about LE investigators not wanting to "tip their hat". Would LE do something like that to make the abductor(s) think they were looking at something/somebody else while they wait for concrete evidence? Also, while commenting on the kids being at the lake, MCM said something like "if they were indeed there"...and also, LE backed off by saying they were not sure they were ever at the lake.

Far-fetched I know...but I got nothin' else right now. MOO

Your post gave my brain a jumping off point going into a direction I hadn't thought of before.

The videos show SOMEONE on two bicycles going by really fast.

Almost everyone here finds it nearly impossible to believe that someone could identify the girls as being the people on the bikes, however LE came out and said early on that the people on the bikes were DEFINITELY the girls.

You said perhaps the police don't want to tip their hand... which got me to thinking... maybe that's why they said they were certain it was the girls on the bikes. Maybe they didn't want to tip their hand.. their "hand" being that they can see on the video that it's definitely NOT the girls on those bikes, racing away.

Just another thought to throw into the mix..

 

[cindersoot]

So the weather was hot that day.....I don't have a quote, but for some reason thought it was cloudy and had rained that morning.

Cloudy rainy and yes hot, very humid.

 

[SK_Hunter]

Where is the boy that was seen fishing with a man? Was that rumor? IDK

Weird thoughts after reading your post:

Dad pretending to be a young boy befriends Lyric on Social Media. Invites Lyric to going fishing with him and his "DAD". The agreed upon meeting place is Meyers lake. Girls arrive and "DAD" is a predator.

Do we have an age on the boy seen?

IMO

 

[Pensfan]

Welcome to Websleuths, Krimzen!
:welcome:

 

[cindersoot]

Your post gave my brain a jumping off point going into a direction I hadn't thought of before.

The videos show SOMEONE on two bicycles going by really fast.

Almost everyone here finds it nearly impossible to believe that someone could identify the girls as being the people on the bikes, however LE came out and said early on that the people on the bikes were DEFINITELY the girls.

You said perhaps the police don't want to tip their hand... which got me to thinking... maybe that's why they said they were certain it was the girls on the bikes. Maybe they didn't want to tip their hand.. their "hand" being that they can see on the video that it's definitely NOT the girls on those bikes, racing away.

Just another thought to throw into the mix..

Im pretty sure one of Lyrics family member said they recognized the bikes that they had actually given Lyric the bike.

 

[GrainneDhu]

The "Bump and Run" method seems to be the MO dujour. See Shunick case.

Vehicle knocks Lyric off bike. Driver gets out. Offers to take Lyric to the hospital and Elizabeth goes along for the ride. UNSUB says he doesnt have enough room for the bikes. Leaves the bikes where found.....

BTW: Did the bikes have any sign of damage?

When I was a kid running with the kid pack, there were a few jokers (mostly boys but I remember one girl) who thought it was funny to ambush others when we were riding on a relatively narrow path through a patch of woods.

It's not difficult at all for a 7-10 year old child to pull another child off their bike, simply by grabbing an arm or handful of hair and pulling sideways.

I am certain that if a 40 pound kid could do it, an adult could do it.

No vehicle needed.

 

[cindersoot]

Weird thoughts after reading your post:

Dad pretending to be a young boy befriends Lyric on Social Media. Invites Lyric to going fishing with him and his "DAD". The agreed upon meeting place is Meyers lake. Girls arrive and "DAD" is a predator.

Do we have an age on the boy seen?

IMO

I don't know if it was a rumor or not? No idea.

 

[GrainneDhu]

How do you know for sure the lake was full of people hanging out and relaxing?

In one of Ollipop's first posts to this case, he said that when he and his kids do the lake trail, they might pass 2-3 people or child/parent clusters in the 45 minutes it takes them to get all the way around the lake.

Assuming an even distribution of people in both directions, that would work out to 6-10 people using the trail in an hour.

This was from before the girls disappeared.

So, lightly used and the use pattern that would be perfect for a predator wanting to set a trap. Enough people going by to make a reasonable assumption that one or more that fit the perp's mental profile would go by but not so many people that the perp would need to worry about witnesses. Stretches of 4-6 minutes between people would be perfect for hunting.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I'm leaning towards something happening near the house and the bikes being left where they fell at that time, and some other kids riding off with them to the secluded part of the bike trail, where they felt they could take the time to stop and look through the purse. Finding nothing of value, they left the bikes there and tossed the purse over the fence and found some other mischief to get into. That mischief kept them from talking to police about anything that happened that day, because they already are known troublemakers.

All just conjecture on my part.

Great post, IMO, because it's very similar to one I posted a couple of threads ago. Great minds do think alike:rocker:

 

[nikb]

So the weather was hot that day.....I don't have a quote, but for some reason thought it was cloudy and had rained that morning.

I remember that too. There was some question about why someone would be out watering when it had rained followed by a local's reminder that there's been a pretty bad drought so it made sense to water even though it had rained. I can't find it in MSM so maybe it was just discussion on here. I'll keep looking.

 

[elepher50]

Great post, IMO, because it's very similar to one I posted a couple of threads ago. Great minds do think alike:rocker:

I, too, do not think that the two girls even made it to the lake..moo.

 

[katydid23]

There were plenty of people about, exercising at the lake, I live in a very hot environment and the streets are deserted on hot days...this was not the case here.

Indeed, the girls wouldn't have gone on a ride at all, if it was extremely hot IMO.

It was also school holidays so there were quite a few people about who normally would not be about.

We have reports of people cycling, people jogging, paddling and fishing. Lots of folk at the lake that day.

So...exactly how would a single perp get two girls (one of whom was adult sized) to drop their bikes, surrender their purse, and walk without sound to a house that has already been searched and cleared, past fishermen, cyclists, joggers and paddleboaters, all unseen?

Not dismissing your opinion, just trying to see in my minds eye, how you think it could be done?

:moo:

I think the most likely scenario is if he had the girls help in doing so. If the girls were groomed by him and were being lured, then he could have told them a story that made them WANT to quietly sneak to a yard or a house with him.

If they had talked to him a few times previously because he is a fisherman, cyclist, ice cream man, jogger, father of a friend, paddle boater, etc, then he may have offered them something fun to do that day.

"Hey girls, I have a bunch of ice cream left over from my truck, it's in that cooler in the yard....sshhhhhh...don't tell anyone or I'll get in trouble. But we can sneak over and you can have as much as you want...it's going to all melt if we don't eat some now...."


"Hey girls, I borrowed my neighbors paddle boat... they never use it anyway...let's take it out for a ride...It's over there in the yard.... let's be quiet though until we get to the other side of the lake...Leave your bikes and stuff here and we will go the back way through the woods..."

" Hey girls...you want some fishing poles and bait? ... It's in my truck, over here...follow me, leave your stuff here. We have to be quiet so we don't scare the fish away..."

 

[craftybatchy]

Kienan Hebert was taken from his own bed with his brother sleeping just a few feet away. Randall Hopely later told LE that he had been inside the Hebert home
twice that night (while the rest of the family slept). Kienan was returned to his family safe and unharmed several days later - by the perpetrator, under the cover of darkness.

My point is, Randall Hopley has a significant intellectual disability and serious deficits in executive functioning. Yet he was able to sneak into a family home, TWICE, while the family slept, abduct a very young child, evade LE for several days, and return that child to a home across the street from where the family was staying - all undetected.

WC is reported to have said that MCM is neither smart nor devious enough to pull something like 'this' off. As in the case of Randall Hopely a perpetrator does not have to be of exceptional intellect to execute a daring, brazen crime. As complex and seemingly impossible as it was for a perp to have whisked these girls away and left no trace - perhaps it is a lot more simple than we would like to believe.

 

[Darcyline]

I am still confused by the lake being described as packed with tons of people and kids. The descriptions and locals seem to describe it as being much less packed than that?