IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #26

Status
Not open for further replies.
Just a thought I've been kicking around.

What if there were two perps at the lake. On the trail/bike path area they could have easily stopped the girls. Each perp gets hold of one and tells them if the try anything the other dies. The perps then leave the lake in different directions, with their own transportation, each with their own girl. Everyone is looking for two girls, not an adult/older teen with one girl. This would stop the girls from fighting back/trying to get help even if they passed someone. The perps have agreed to meet back at 7 Bridges.

/moo
 
Smock didn't say the team was interviewing sex offenders. According to the article, he said that

http://www.kwwl.com/story/20351247/...chief-squashes-rumors-of-arrest-in-girls-case

That's what I was thinking too. :rocker: Not just sex offenders are being interviewed. YEAH!!:great: It could be ANYONE at this point.

I (personally) think there was evidence of a sexual offense is why that team is involved. (Why else would they use a sexually specific team vs. a "standard' investigator?)
 
Dogs, wolves, coyote and fox all instinctively track from oldest to newest scent. Any animal that hunts for food does so because if they don't, they aren't likely to eat. A fairly common newbie training mistake to make is to teach the dog to track backwards. It isn't that dogs cannot track backwards, it's just that they have a strong instinctive desire to track forwards. I think we can rule out that sort of newbie training error in the case of the FBI dogs.

Now, imagine that the dog is looking for scent and moving along a path that is perpendicular to the scent trail. The two paths make a shape like a capital T (dog's path the vertical stroke, target scent the horizontal stroke). There's a chance that the dog will initially start tracking backwards. But an experienced, well trained dog will reverse within 10 feet if they find themselves going backwards. A normal, healthy human can cover 10 feet in 1-2 seconds at a brisk walk. So that means that a dog can tell the difference between scent that is 2 hours old and scent that is 2 hours 2 seconds old.

Pretty amazing!

A very common LE task for dogs is to figure out if a certain item was placed by the target person or if that item got into the environment in some other way. So the dog will be given the target scent from an item known to have been handled by the target person. Then they take the dog to where the item was found in the environment and the handler does the equivalent of asking the dog "did the target person go anywhere after this item was left here?"

The dog will check out the item and indicate "yeah, the target person was definitely here." Then the dog starts searching to find out where the target person went next. Most dogs will start making a loose spiral centred on the item. If they can't find any newer scent, they will go back to the item and then resume casting for newer scent.

Depending on the dog, they will circle the item 1-4 times before checking back at the item. Usually by the second time the dog checks back to the item, they are giving off definite signals of "ain't no newer scent here, partner." The handler usually encourages the dog to try again but at some point, the dog makes it clear that they are simply not finding newer scent. Some dogs will bark at their handlers in a very annoyed tone, as if they were saying "what part of this are you choosing not to understand???" Dogs are willing workers and remarkably tolerant but they don't have infinite patience.

I am purely speculating here: I think that when dogs are in an environment that they perceive it very differently from humans. For a human, it would probably be like being able to see a type of ghost of everyone who had moved through that environment in the last 2-4 weeks plus seeing the solid form of anyone who is actually present in the environment.

As a general guideline, if a scent question can be phrased in such a way as to require a yes/no answer, then a dog can be trained to answer the question.

Thank you! This is so fascinating. Really reality is so much more than humans or any one species can experience because of differences in sensory capacity...like parallel universes.

(And no I'm not high lol.)
 
Just a thought I've been kicking around.

What if there were two perps at the lake. On the trail/bike path area they could have easily stopped the girls. Each perp gets hold of one and tells them if the try anything the other dies. The perps then leave the lake in different directions, with their own transportation, each with their own girl. Everyone is looking for two girls, not an adult/older teen with one girl. This would stop the girls from fighting back/trying to get help even if they passed someone. The perps have agreed to meet back at 7 Bridges.

/moo

Not sure if I could totally wrap my mind around this one, personally, at first. But the more I think about it...wow... what if? What if the reason noone seemed to see anything
was because it wasn't what LE and investigators were specifically asking for, like you said. I appreciate your perspective!! Very original & all I know is that something happened and noone can say for sure that something along these lines did not.

Please keep sharing your thoughts!
 
I hope they do have evidence. No one should get away with abducting & murdering two beautiful girls.

I am worried about the evidence though. At this point we don't seem to know the true abdution site. If it was Meyers lake the only evidence may be the bikes & purse. Which could have been been touched & compromised by several people for various reasons.

When I think of 7 bridges I can't help but think of how hot it was this summer in the midwest. Growing up on a farm I'm very aware of what extreme heat & animals can do. If the girls have been there since July 13/14th I'm not really sure what would be left. I am hopeful thatthey were more preserved then what I can imagine. I hope the hunters who found them are doing ok.

Most communties never believe this could happen in their town. I would assume that several things went unnoticed that day. I hope this doesn't go cold & they have a lot more evidence then we know about.
 
So do you think there is no DNA or forensic evidence then from the bodies?

They would be able to match that up pretty quick I would think.

I imagine there is, but they probably don't have it yet. He said that not long after the girls were found. It takes time to get those results at the best of times; the holidays quite likely slowed things down. And a good investigator is not going to jump to conclusions in public before they have the evidence.
 
That's what I was thinking too. :rocker: Not just sex offenders are being interviewed. YEAH!!:great: It could be ANYONE at this point.

I (personally) think there was evidence of a sexual offense is why that team is involved. (Why else would they use a sexually specific team vs. a "standard' investigator?)

Yeah, there have been a bunch of things like that pointing toward the possibility, haven't there? Nothing definite, nothing real obvious, but always there.
 
So, for those of you who are certain that LE isn't stumped, have their ducks in a row, and are just waiting for....

What?...

The autopsy results/forensics?

Someone to run their mouth to ensure another "slam dunk" (like the Evelyn Miller case)...

What is stopping LE from making an arrest?

The reason I ask is because for one, if any fingerprints were on the bikes AND the perp/perps had been arrested before, then their prints would have been in the database.


I'm only asking because I'm curious as to what other sleuthers are thinking is holding things up. What is missing to bring justice to these two beautiful girls?
That of course is assuming prints were able to be lifted.

If it was a family member or the girls prints only there would be a valid explanation to their prints being on the bike.

I am going to have to assume that since it was back in July when the bikes were found, it's safe to say that either they weren't able to lift prints or the people's prints that were on the bike didn't produce enough evidence to warrant an arrest.

What is LE waiting for??

Or a family friend. Or someone whose never been fingerprinted. And even if they were fingerprints from a known criminal, they still have prove murder. Prints alone aren't enough.
 
DNA can be matched within days, as was seen in the case of Chelsea King in CA. DNA from her killer, who was in the system, came back as a match within about 48 hours, before her body was even found a few days later. (Her panties were found and tested ASAP during the search.) So it CAN be done quickly.
 
Just a thought I've been kicking around.

What if there were two perps at the lake. On the trail/bike path area they could have easily stopped the girls. Each perp gets hold of one and tells them if the try anything the other dies. The perps then leave the lake in different directions, with their own transportation, each with their own girl. Everyone is looking for two girls, not an adult/older teen with one girl. This would stop the girls from fighting back/trying to get help even if they passed someone. The perps have agreed to meet back at 7 Bridges.

/moo

It could be.

That would take care of the problem of controlling the girls during transport. Just tell each girl that if she makes a fuss, a call will be made to the other perp and the other girl will be hurt.

I can't imagine a young girl taking that risk. I can't imagine most adults taking that risk either. Even knowing intellectually that the best strategy would be to forget the threats and try to get help, I'm not sure I could do it. The instinct to protect those we love is so primal.
 
They have to have evidence that will hold up in a court of law. We may end up waiting a long time for someone to be arrested. :banghead:

:please: that the reason no one has been arrested is that they are just building a strong case.
 
I
There was absolutely profit here. This happened the DAY BEFORE Dan was supposed to go to court and surrender his freedom. He was being sentenced to FIVE 20-year prison sentences. He would likely never see the outside of a jail cell ever again. And since his daughter disappeared, he is still walking around a free man.

There is also a very large fund sitting in the bank for the families to use. To date, it has not been drawn from, but it is there for them to use in the future.

I am not saying that Dan or Misty did this. But you can't make a statement like "nobody profited" when some people clearly did.

It was Dans choice whether he pleaded guilty or not guilty. He decided at the last minute to change his plea to not guilty.

I don't think that anyone schemed and thought "hey, I betcha if Elizabeth and Lyric went missing, people would feel sorry for us and give us a lot of money. " I know people do this kind of thing for money, but for them to have know how big this would become, they couldn't have known. JMO...
 
DNA can be matched within days, as was seen in the case of Chelsea King in CA. DNA from her killer, who was in the system, came back as a match within about 48 hours, before her body was even found a few days later. (Her panties were found and tested ASAP during the search.) So it CAN be done quickly.

I believe it depends on what DNA testing they are doing. Matching an unknown sample of body fluid to a known sample is the simplest and takes 48 hours to run.

Doing a test on an unknown sample to compare to the various databases takes longer because it requires more data from the unknown sample.

Doing a test on low count DNA ("touch" DNA) or on degraded samples takes the longest, up to 8 weeks. Just running a low count sample through the PCR process takes up weeks and weeks of time.

Just based on the circumstances, I would expect any DNA testing to take a long time. Any relevant sample has probably been out there since 13 July.
 
I try not to forget cases where they have arrested someone and they are sitting in jail only not charged with murder yet. Once they get them in jail with a big charge like drugs, sex offense etc...the LE & the prosecution have plenty of time to build a case for murder. Black Hawk has been doling out some big bonds for the drug manufacturers & dealers lately. They may have been doing that all along & I didn't notice but a $50K to $100K & up, a surety or cash bond is hard to come by somedays.

At least in the back of my mind I can always hope that might be the case. The perp is arrested, not charged yet & he's off the streets.
 
I hope they do have evidence. No one should get away with abducting & murdering two beautiful girls.

I am worried about the evidence though. At this point we don't seem to know the true abdution site. If it was Meyers lake the only evidence may be the bikes & purse. Which could have been been touched & compromised by several people for various reasons.

When I think of 7 bridges I can't help but think of how hot it was this summer in the midwest. Growing up on a farm I'm very aware of what extreme heat & animals can do. If the girls have been there since July 13/14th I'm not really sure what would be left. I am hopeful thatthey were more preserved then what I can imagine. I hope the hunters who found them are doing ok.

Most communties never believe this could happen in their town. I would assume that several things went unnoticed that day. I hope this doesn't go cold & they have a lot more evidence then we know about.

Great post! It makes me wonder. I am not up to speed on exactly what happened after the girls' bodies were found.

Does anyone know if that site was examined as meticulously as say, Caylee A's? Sorry if it's a dumb question.
 
In the Evelyn Miller case, though, LE made it clear who the top suspect was from almost the very beginning. They would talk about Casey Frederickson's version of events but in such a way that the holes in his story were made glaringly obvious.

The police aren't doing anything of the sort in this case.

But that's because he was the obvious suspect from the beginning. In this case, whoever it is,is not someone that we've been made aware of publicly.
 
:floorlaugh: I believe me and you are on the same :rollercoaster: I know we are :deadhorse: but the "facts" in this case are driving me to :needdrink: The more I think about it, the less I understand. Before I throw in the :whiteflag: I'm not going to :panic: I'm going to let the good :nurse: give me a :chillpill: and I'm going to ride the :bananalama: before I have a :laughcry:

Too funny! !!!!
 
I believe it depends on what DNA testing they are doing. Matching an unknown sample of body fluid to a known sample is the simplest and takes 48 hours to run.

Doing a test on an unknown sample to compare to the various databases takes longer because it requires more data from the unknown sample.

Doing a test on low count DNA ("touch" DNA) or on degraded samples takes the longest, up to 8 weeks. Just running a low count sample through the PCR process takes up weeks and weeks of time.

Just based on the circumstances, I would expect any DNA testing to take a long time. Any relevant sample has probably been out there since 13 July.

They had no idea who they were looking for at the time they sent the DNA, as far as I can recall, in Chelsea's' case. They were lucky he was an ex-con and in the system.
 
I try not to forget cases where they have arrested someone and they are sitting in jail only not charged with murder yet. Once they get them in jail with a big charge like drugs, sex offense etc...the LE & the prosecution have plenty of time to build a case for murder. Black Hawk has been doling out some big bonds for the drug manufacturers & dealers lately. They may have been doing that all along & I didn't notice but a $50K to $100K & up, a surety or cash bond is hard to come by somedays.

At least in the back of my mind I can always hope that might be the case. The perp is arrested, not charged yet & he's off the streets.

I would love for this to be the case!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
78
Guests online
3,512
Total visitors
3,590

Forum statistics

Threads
593,193
Messages
17,982,191
Members
229,050
Latest member
utahtruecrimepod
Back
Top