"I'm not convinced DB is guilty" - Post your theories here.

[marlame]

But do we know that was the first cadaver dog to be brought in? We know that at least three dogs were brought in on Oct. 5th. Do we know that one of them wasn't a HRD dog? Was the dog on the 17th just a verification dog? I don't think LE was obligated to disclose that on the affidavit.

The dog that was brought in on the 17th was an FBI "cadaver" dog and it was this dog that made the 'hit'. Unfortunately, there has been no report or info from LE that any other dog brought in by LE in the first days made a hit. Nor has it been reported another dog confirmed a hit.

Please know I have great respect for the use of dogs as an investigative tool. I have a dear friend that owned such a dog years ago. There is extensive training that goes into developing a dog to do this kind of work but it all depends upon the specific training methods used. You are correct...LE is not obligated to disclose that on the affidavit. But in a trial it is thoroughly disected.

 

[hambirg]

Good point! But it appears LE can't rule out either way.

If Jersey was involved he may not have ever intended to abduct Baby Lisa but in the midst of an attempted burglary the baby woke up and was crying. He may have suffocated her as he was trying to keep her quiet. After, he killed her he realized he had to take her to conceal what he did.

I just am not convinced either DB or JI are guilty of murdering their daughter. Maybe it is wishful thinking on my part? It is just so sad...

JMHO...

I am waaaay to skeptical to be convinced that JI or DB aren't guilty of murdering BL. Sad but true. There are too many inconsistencies. Behavioral analysis raises issues. People lie with their words, but behavior is rarely wrong. It's figuring out what someone's motives are that are driving their behavior that is the tricky part. Once that is determined, people are fairly predictable. You can run, but you can't hide, so to speak.

I don't believe that a "burglar" would pick a house that people are obviously in to rob. I don't believe that if a burglar was so bold as to do that, that they would take nothing but some broke phones and a baby. I don't believe that a "burglar" would be looking for expensive goodies, that a "burglar" would be looking for (motivated by money remember? ) in a baby's nursery. Expensive stuff that can be sold or pawned would be in a garage, master bedroom, or possibly computer room where people keep those types of items. . .NOT in a baby's room. They would be the first "burglar" in the history of crime that was looking for diapers and Desitin.

MOO

 

[hambirg]

The dog that was brought in on the 17th was an FBI "cadaver" dog and it was this dog that made the 'hit'. Unfortunately, there has been no report or info from LE that any other dog brought in by LE in the first days made a hit. Nor has it been reported another dog confirmed a hit.

Please know I have great respect for the use of dogs as an investigative tool. I have a dear friend that owned such a dog years ago. There is extensive training that goes into developing a dog to do this kind of work but it all depends upon the specific training methods used. You are correct...LE is not obligated to disclose that on the affidavit. But in a trial it is thoroughly disected.

Yes, but there IS video of dogs, FBI dogs, being brought in on the 5th. I have NO idea what kinds of dogs they were. BUT we can't say that they weren't HRD dogs. We simply don't know. And yes, it will come out in trial if that is the case. BUT as of right now, we just don't know.

JMHO, the dog on the 17th was probably the "world renowned" dog. That was a back-up. If they did get a "hit" on the 5th, wouldn't it make sense that they would bring in one of the best dogs out there to confirm it? That way when it does go to trial, it makes it that much more valid.

 

[TxLady2]

Yes, read the summary at the top. . .

There is approximately one child abduction murder for for every 10,000 reports of a a missing child.

The murder of a child that is abducted by a stranger is a rare event. . . .less than one-half of one percent of the murders committed.

The statistics posted above are qualified with the statement. . .

The family members or intimates who are killers in this study differ from the typical parent murderer in that they are implicated, somehow, in the actual or fraudulent abduction.

I'm not sure LE is convinced there was ever an abduction in this case.

MOO

Respectfully, I'm pretty sure that LE was convinced from the first day that Lisa was killed and her body disposed of to make it appear an abduction, and if what DB said initially is true, they set out to prove that and to intimidate her into confessing to the crime. And that is what bothers me. I know for a fact that when LE doesn't have a lot of evidence, they will try to sway the public's opinion of a suspect by leaking out (mis)information that paints that person in a bad light. They may have enough circumstantial evidence at this point to arrest her, but it's certainly not enough to convict her, and that is why they tried to get a confession. OR if they can persuade the public she is guilty, then they'll get a jury that will convict. (Unless, of course, they bring one in from Pinellas Co., FL.) :what:

I agree with Jacie, statistics don't mean a thing to me, because guess what... things come along to alter those statistics periodically. Statistics don't stay the same, they're constantly changing. And that one hit by a cadaver dog doesn't mean much to me, either. It would not hold up in court, IMO. Too much depends on how the dog was trained, so many of them are cross-trained to hit on bandages, urine, feces, etc. and not really reliable.

I also believe in the IUPG concept, and I try to keep an open mind. That said, I do not believe Deb or Jeremy had anything to do with Lisa's disappearance but I don't have any theories of who did.

 

[melissasmom]

I am waaaay to skeptical to be convinced that JI or DB aren't guilty of murdering BL. Sad but true. There are too many inconsistencies. Behavioral analysis raises issues. People lie with their words, but behavior is rarely wrong. It's figuring out what someone's motives are that are driving their behavior that is the tricky part. Once that is determined, people are fairly predictable. You can run, but you can't hide, so to speak.

I don't believe that a "burglar" would pick a house that people are obviously in to rob. I don't believe that if a burglar was so bold as to do that, that they would take nothing but some broke phones and a baby.don't believe I that a "burglar" would be looking for expensive goodies, that a "burglar" would be looking for (motivated by money remember? ) in a baby's nursery. Expensive stuff that can be sold or pawned would be in a garage, master bedroom, or possibly computer room where people keep those types of items. . .NOT in a baby's room. They would be the first "burglar" in the history of crime that was looking for diapers and Desitin.

MOO

I completely agree with this. However, if the door to this room was shut, how would a burglar know it was a baby's room? Someone could have opened the door to Lisa's room, not realizing it was a nursery, and maybe she was already awake or the act of the door opening woke her up. If DB was "passed out", sleeping heavily plus had her fan on high, I can totally see her not hearing Lisa wake up, even if she DID have the monitor on.

Though I don't think it was a random "burglar". Someone knew JI was not home and possibly that DB had been drinking.

JMO

 

[vlpate]

As far as infant abductions, this profile is just wrong. See NCMEC WEBSITE ... does not fit Jersey in the least. I've asked before, to no avail, where us the info that Jersey was ever arrested for B&E?

I posted some of this on another thread but just saw this topic thread and wanted to share...

I think Jersey would be the most likely abductor, based upon what we know thus far and the criminal profile of a child kidnapper/murderer. I sure hope the police have completely investigated him and his actions and whereabouts leading up to and following Baby Lisa's abduction.

Here is some info from my research notes on the criminal profile involving child abduction that I compiled for a research project while in college...

Non family abductions are motivated by sexual gratification, retribution, financial gain, desire to kill, or maternal desire. The most common type non family abduction is sexually motivated and poses the highest risk of victim mortality.

Based upon info from US National Center for Missing and Exploited Children...non family abductions of infants (1 month - 12 months of age) tend to be carried out by white males between the ages of twenty and forty. They are typically not married, are loners, and have difficulty interacting with adults. They are a transient worker or day laborer with marginal social skills. Profit based offenses (drug related or ransom) are rare. Infants are usually abducted by a male who is an acquaintance or stranger of the victim/family, commonly a neighbor with a history of sexual misconduct. Race of victims and perps is consistently same. And most are victims of opportunity. Interesting to note also is the abductor's prior crimes are similar in M.O. (i.e. Jersey likes to set fires and a fire was discovered the night baby Lisa went missing).

This link is a MUST read: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/pr/201316.pdf

In the above linked Handflan research report it states: 64% of non family female infant/toddlers (ages 1-5) abductions tend to be killed by family friends/acquaintances, 28% by strangers, and ONLY 8% tend to be killed by a family member (See Table 7 page 23). The primary reason for child abduction is sexual assault. All that is needed is an opportunity for the killer/abductor to act.

Everything about Jersey/John Tanko fits with the crime profile data!
He was in the neighborhood at time of abduction, is known to break into peoples homes through windows (similar M.O.), has a criminal past, and was experiencing personal crisis & stressors (break up with girlfriend, homeless, financial problems, etc.). All of which are consistent with the criminal profile of child kidnapper/murderer! Add that there could be a link to cell phone call to his ex-Megan Wright...it sure doesn't look good for baby Lisa.

If I lived in the area I would be searching a 200ft radius of where Jersey was last seen and also where the last reported sighting of man walking with baby. Especially, wooded or secluded areas. Anywhere that would be a good place to conceal a body.

This case is so sad...I sure hope the police find Baby Lisa! lease:

JMHO~ MarlaMe

 

[hambirg]

I completely agree with this. However, if the door to this room was shut, how would a burglar know it was a baby's room? Someone could have opened the door to Lisa's room, not realizing it was a nursery, and maybe she was already awake or the act of the door opening woke her up. If DB was "passed out", sleeping heavily plus had her fan on high, I can totally see her not hearing Lisa wake up, even if she DID have the monitor on.

Though I don't think it was a random "burglar". Someone knew JI was not home and possibly that DB had been drinking.

JMO

1:3 odds. Are you a betting person? If a "burglar" opened BL door, against the odds, why wouldn't they just shut it and flee the house? There are LOTS of other houses in that neighborhood. Some of them even had absent homeowners. That would be a much easier target for an observant burglar.What is the random petty thief going to do with a baby?

You know who knew JI was supposedly at work and that DB was going to get drunk on a box-o-wine? JI :what:

 

[hambirg]

As far as infant abductions, this profile is just wrong. See NCMEC WEBSITE ... does not fit Jersey in the least. I've asked before, to no avail, where us the info that Jersey was ever arrested for B&E?

Yep, and where is the evidence that Jersey was ever involved in any sexual crimes? Any crimes against children? What did the study say again? In something like 70% of these random stranger abduction murderer cases the guilty party has a history of crimes against children.

I'm just not seeing it.

 

[hambirg]

Respectfully, I'm pretty sure that LE was convinced from the first day that Lisa was killed and her body disposed of to make it appear an abduction, and if what DB said initially is true, they set out to prove that and to intimidate her into confessing to the crime. And that is what bothers me. I know for a fact that when LE doesn't have a lot of evidence, they will try to sway the public's opinion of a suspect by leaking out (mis)information that paints that person in a bad light. They may have enough circumstantial evidence at this point to arrest her, but it's certainly not enough to convict her, and that is why they tried to get a confession. OR if they can persuade the public she is guilty, then they'll get a jury that will convict. (Unless, of course, they bring one in from Pinellas Co., FL.) :what:

I agree with Jacie, statistics don't mean a thing to me, because guess what... things come along to alter those statistics periodically. Statistics don't stay the same, they're constantly changing. And that one hit by a cadaver dog doesn't mean much to me, either. It would not hold up in court, IMO. Too much depends on how the dog was trained, so many of them are cross-trained to hit on bandages, urine, feces, etc. and not really reliable.

I also believe in the IUPG concept, and I try to keep an open mind. That said, I do not believe Deb or Jeremy had anything to do with Lisa's disappearance but I don't have any theories of who did.

That's your prerogative. There is a multi-billion dollar business banking on just that exact same thing.

 

[norest4thewicked]

I am waaaay to skeptical to be convinced that JI or DB aren't guilty of murdering BL. Sad but true. There are too many inconsistencies. Behavioral analysis raises issues. People lie with their words, but behavior is rarely wrong. It's figuring out what someone's motives are that are driving their behavior that is the tricky part. Once that is determined, people are fairly predictable. You can run, but you can't hide, so to speak.

I don't believe that a "burglar" would pick a house that people are obviously in to rob. I don't believe that if a burglar was so bold as to do that, that they would take nothing but some broke phones and a baby. I don't believe that a "burglar" would be looking for expensive goodies, that a "burglar" would be looking for (motivated by money remember? ) in a baby's nursery. Expensive stuff that can be sold or pawned would be in a garage, master bedroom, or possibly computer room where people keep those types of items. . .NOT in a baby's room. They would be the first "burglar" in the history of crime that was looking for diapers and Desitin.

MOO

I completely agree. Why wouldn't he go to the Watson house and burglarize it? He KNEW the Watson's were out of town. He could have done the burglary and then taken and hidden the stuff or sold it. He could wait until the next day and say that he saw that a window was broken when he went to water the lawn.

I think that, again, too many complicated scenarios that just don't work.

 

[norest4thewicked]

I thought that Jersey was in jail on a parole violation.

 

[annalia]

I am waaaay to skeptical to be convinced that JI or DB aren't guilty of murdering BL. Sad but true. There are too many inconsistencies. Behavioral analysis raises issues. People lie with their words, but behavior is rarely wrong. It's figuring out what someone's motives are that are driving their behavior that is the tricky part. Once that is determined, people are fairly predictable. You can run, but you can't hide, so to speak.

I don't believe that a "burglar" would pick a house that people are obviously in to rob. I don't believe that if a burglar was so bold as to do that, that they would take nothing but some broke phones and a baby. I don't believe that a "burglar" would be looking for expensive goodies, that a "burglar" would be looking for (motivated by money remember? ) in a baby's nursery. Expensive stuff that can be sold or pawned would be in a garage, master bedroom, or possibly computer room where people keep those types of items. . .NOT in a baby's room. They would be the first "burglar" in the history of crime that was looking for diapers and Desitin.

MOO

I agree. Lights on, not knowing if someone was still awake inside, not knowing when JI would be pulling in the driveway.

Petty burglars go for easy in and easy out, grab the stuff and go. And why weren't other things taken if it was a burglary?

Do we know if any outside lights were left on, like by the front door? If DB left inside lights on and left the front door unlocked I doubt she turned off the outside lights.
JMHO

 

[In da Middle]

I thought that Jersey was in jail on a parole violation.

He was previously wanted for a parole violation prior to this. He is now in custody for stealing a van. A van that was stolen just before he was arrested the last time. They still have time to charge him with many more things as they see fit, but for now he is not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Jacie Estes]

He was previously wanted for a parole violation prior to this. He is now in custody for stealing a van. A van that was stolen just before he was arrested the last time. They still have time to charge him with many more things as they see fit, but for now he is not going anywhere anytime soon.

jersey has shown, by his criminal record, his squatting in houses and his arson proclivities that he does not follow the rules. It is easy to see him wandering through a house just to scr*w with those living inside the house. Taking the phones? Yeah, I can see this. Taking Lisa? Yeah, I can see this too. jersey is a sociopathic CRIMINAL, not a choir boy. No one can ascribe statistics, trends or anything else to him. He is a f-up who does what he pleases. Remember he is thought to have set Megan W.'s car on fire in the neighborhood...or did she set it on fire herself? IMHO

THIS is one of the many reasons why I think Deborah is innocent.

 

[marlame]

64% of non family female infant/toddlers (ages 1-5) abductions tend to be killed by family friends/acquaintances, 28% by strangers, and ONLY 8% tend to be killed by a family member

I'm pretty sure that's saying that out of all NON-FAMILY abductions, 8% are killed by a family member. I don't think it's saying that 92% of murdered victims between the ages of 1-5 are killed by a non-family member.

Yes, you are correct. The research data I referenced is specifically related to children ages 1-5 that are reported "abducted" to LE. Of those reported as "abducted" 8% are killed by a family members. Baby Lisa was reported as abducted. Based upon this data, it is rare that a parent/family member falsely claims their child is abducted when in fact they actually killed them.

 

[vlpate]

He was previously wanted for a parole violation prior to this. He is now in custody for stealing a van. A van that was stolen just before he was arrested the last time. They still have time to charge him with many more things as they see fit, but for now he is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Tanko was not arrested, ever, for stealing a motor vehicle - van or otherwise - he was charged with Tampering with a motor vehicle - 1st degree felony.

The parole violation, from what I've read, but can't confirm, was for leaving the approved area of his halfway house.

He's never been charged with breaking and entering in the neighborhood where Lisa went missing.

 

[In da Middle]

Tanko was not arrested, ever, for stealing a motor vehicle - van or otherwise - he was charged with Tampering with a motor vehicle - 1st degree felony.

The parole violation, from what I've read, but can't confirm, was for leaving the approved area of his halfway house.

He's never been charged with breaking and entering in the neighborhood where Lisa went missing.

Tampering with a motor vehicle is the way stealing a vehicle is stated in Missouri. He was sentenced for stealing the grey van he was driving when he was arrested. Jim Spellman, I think it was, confirmed this charge was for the van theft.

 

[RANCH]

Tampering with a motor vehicle is the way stealing a vehicle is stated in Missouri. He was sentenced for stealing the grey van he was driving when he was arrested. Jim Spellman, I think it was, confirmed this charge was for the van theft.

I never heard of "Tampering with a motor vehicle" until this case. In California it's "Auto theft".

 

[SyraKelly]

In this video-SY is TO ME pretty adamant that Jersey is NOT involved with this case!!
I mean-he did not even want to give out the guy's name!!! He even says-he is not a suspect!!!
http://www.kmbc.com/r-video/29498238/detail.html

 

[In da Middle]

Info on the THEFT of the van.

- Jim Robert, spokesman for the Clay County Prosecutor’s office confirmed by phone Monday that John Tanko aka "Jersey" remains incarcerated at the Missouri Department of Corrections and is scheduled to be arraigned this week on a felony one charge; he is held on $10,000 bond. Missouri Department of Corrections Public Information Officer, Angie Morfeld, said during a phone call Monday that Tanko was arrested on Oct. 14 for violation of parole and was later charged on a felony one count of Tampering with a Motor Vehicle.
“He was charged with felony one after operating a Chrysler van without the owner’s consent,” Robert said.

http://216.18.223.213/missing-perso...rsey-tanko-felony-charges-arraignment-hearing