What incredible luck this guy had to plop right down into an uninhabited room and take out the first victim who couldn't put up a struggle. Do you think he had been in the house before?
For my money, no. He seems to have struck at random, going to whoever is closest to him. I would think if he knew his way around the house, he'd have been way more methodical in his approach (wait for them in their rooms before surprise attacking them). But I absolutely do believe he knew the house by observing it from outside. That may be because he scouted it or because he knew the house and the general area rather well. His entry of choice, his boldness, his nonchalant attitude afterwards suggests he had a very good idea of what he was getting himself into.
I appreciate your thoughts on this, even if we disagree on a lot. You raise many good points and I'll do my best to answer each one. You'll see in my responses, I'll raise a lot of questions. To be clear, they're rhetorical. No need to reply. At any rate, as I'm facing a deadline, even if you had further responses, it's unlikely I'll have further comment for you on this.
The skatepark is across from the house. The playground is for kids which is directly behind it. Could you use that for skating? I suppose so but that's something I've never seen on any of the occasions I went there / never heard of in the conversations I've had. The first image below is of the skatepark. The second is its relation to the Miyazawa home:
That's what we're here for - exchange ideas. Otherwise this would be very boring if we all agreed on everything
. Anyways, yes I know the skatepark to the side of the house, but the playground directly behind the house looks like a perfect ground for skating, as well:
The stairs, higher ground boulders, etc looks perfect for skating. Now I have no idea which ground is preferred now, much less 23 years ago, but both are suitable enough for not only skating, but teens and other delinquents gathering around and making noise
"It couldn't be that many."
Why not? Based on what? With all respect, I believe you're wrong. Obviously, I can't tell you the total figure of skaters the TMPD have questioned. But I can tell you that I've spoken to a number of them that were interviewed and they told me the same story: the detectives wanted only two things. 1) their fingerprints to eliminate them. 2) Names, names, names. Detectives came with print-outs from skating videos and skate magazines, they came with long lists. Do you know X, do you know Y, tell us where we can we find Z. So, clearly, it could be that many.
To date, the TMPD has fingerprinted over 1 million men. They've had 280,000 personnel on this case in the last 24 years. Why couldn't they have chased down many skaters? Why not thousands, if they felt like it? The TMPD is the largest and, as I understand it, best-funded metro police force on earth. What conceivable reason could there be for them NOT chasing down skaters? Tokyo being big or there being other skate parks doesn't seem like a factor to me. Of course, I'm not saying they interviewed every skater in Tokyo. But I strongly and respectfully disagree with "couldn't be that many."
Because I think it is next to impossible to chase down random individuals except if you actually have their tracks recorded or have others who give you the tip on them, especially over the years. Hell, for all we know the killer might have already been interviewed. So long as they don't have any concrete evidence against that individual they can't do anything about it, they can't even take his DNA or fingerprints. And the longer this case takes, the harder it is to track down the people who might have been in the vicinity of the house in the months, weeks prior to the murder. Hell, even in modern day we often have killers directly and perfectly captured on CCTV and still be unable to find them
Obviously I am not saying Mikio could never have been in a bad mood. As I have said many times, we hear different things about him. Obviously I am not suggesting I am able to vouch for every single day in his life. What I am trying to relate, perhaps poorly, is the testimony of the skaters who used that park on a frequent basis in the 90s/2000. Skaters who were interviewed by the TMPD. They referred to the Mikio incident as singular. Maybe they were lying to me? But, as we know the TMPD fingerprinted them, clearly none were responsible for the murders. I would hope you would give me enough credit to assume that I am not claiming absolute certainty on events 24 years ago. I am talking about what I have been able to ascertain. Clearly, the possibility of Mikio saying the wrong thing to the wrong person is still on the table.
And I absolutely agree with you. But correct me if I'm wrong, isn't the information that we have is that Mikio not only argued with skaters but bikers hanging in the area, as well? And the police have had witnesses coming forward and giving those testimonies that it was a somewhat of a regular occurrence?
Sure. Where do I assume the killer is normal? Given that he murdered four human beings for no immediately obvious reason, I think the word "normal" can be quite comfortably discounted here.
All I'm saying is that even if Mikio asked them in the most polite way possible, that still doesn't discount someone taking an issue with it.
Your view on these clothes are as valid as anyone else's. You aren't the first person to view them as in-line (see what I did there) with the clothes of a skater. Though I think you are the first to take this view that has said they skated too? I can't recall. But I skated in my youth, too. Personally, from the very first time I saw those clothes, it felt wrong that a skater label was applied. JMO, of course. Then again, he's wearing tennis shoes and there's a tennis court right there. Why can't he be a tennis player? People wear tennis shoes to cycle around. Why couldn't he be a cyclist etc? In the end, this goes nowhere. I can only repeat what every single person on the scene in Soshigaya Park in the year 2000 I spoke to told me -- those aren't skater clothes. Sometimes, I asked them directly. Many times they gave me this opinion unprompted. Of course, they could be wrong. But seeing as they were there 24 years ago, I'm inclined to take their view on board.
Because tennis players or football players don't line up with the facts of the case because they didn't hang there. We know that this was an area that was frequented by motorbike gangs, various delinquents and skaters predominantly. So far the killer's clothes most closely match that of a skater, but that doesn't necessarily exclude the other groups either. He might have been part of all 3. My point is that there is a connection with the killer's clothes to the people hanging around the house who would have been familiar with it. And the closest connection to that would be the skaters. Bikers would wear jeans, leather jackets and definitely wouldn't wear a bucket hat or a fanny pack. All I know is that the killer wore clothes that something a teen or a guy in his early twenties would wear. Does that mean that there wouldn't be an exception? Hell no, he might have been a 40 years old guy for all we know. But given we don't know who the killer is we can only work with what is most probable and not what is possible. Because otherwise anything is possible.
Short of that, we're left with likelihood. Is it likely he had just been skateboarding before the murders? Is it likely he decided on a whim to murder the occupants of that house while on the half-pipe? Or is it more likely he would choose his clothes appropriately to hide his identity rather than adhering to 'skater style'? We know he covered his face with a handkerchief and wore a low-brimmed hat. If anything at all, this tells me he didn't want to be seen / recognised.
I never implied he murdered on a whim. Quite the contrary, this was a planned killing of someone familiar with the house and its residents. Him taking basic precautions prior to the murders doesn't mean anyone in the house knew him personally or anything for him to hide his identity (and what would be the point when he was planning to murder them all?), more so that he didn't want others to recognize him on his way and away from the crime scene. Using these 'skater style' clothes is quite frankly horribly inconvenient for a killing which leads me to believe these were his actual clothes given that we can somewhat deduce (by the dates produced, sold, etc) that he didn't purchase these clothes in the span for a few months.
Mabori Beach is not literally a skate park, no. It's an area of coastline in Yokosuka where there happens to be a US naval base -- coincidentally, or not. But I also don't know if there was a skate park there in the year 2000.
I worded that wrong. I didn't mean it was literally a skater park, but that skating can be done there. You say it happens to be a US naval base, but is it more likely that the killer visited the area around Mabori Beach or that he was a US serviceman given the clothes, killer being able to read kanji (one of the most difficult languages in the world to read), his DNA being that of a Japanese (whether you believe in the theory he might have Korean ancestry or European ancestry), he still had majority Japanese DNA. Everything seems to point to him being a native of Japan.
I am not suggesting he vanished into thin air, I am suggesting there is a chance he left the country. And I do not say this simply because he wasn't caught. Not all crimes are solved in Japan. Obviously, that doesn't mean that every single criminal fled the country. I have stated by reasons for believing he left Japan so many times, you'll forgive me for not repeating myself. It's all there up-thread.
But he didn't have to be Jason Borne or even remotely competent to disappear into Tokyo. All he had to do, which he did, is to just go home.
Let's not get into Jack the Ripper because I have my own views on that and I
don't believe he disappeared
That would be an even longer topic, indeed.
We know the killer left in the early in the morning, yes. I too think he went home, covering his hand. Where else would he have realistically gone? However, the idea that a witness wouldn't pay attention to someone walking home bleeding due to them being Japanese - am I understanding that correctly? If so, I disagree. You asked if I'm aware of the Namiko Takaba case. Yes, I've actually just made a thread on it. In that case, there is no suggestion the killer isn't Japanese. Yet she was also bleeding and seen by witnesses. And I'm not wholly sure where your point about the police not tracking him down meaning he didn't disappear like JtR leads. Do you mean the TMPD overlooked him? Or he's living in plain sight? At any rate, we disagree. I don't say it's impossible he slipped past them. Only that for me it's more likely he left. End of.
Would a witness pay attention to that in the middle of the night knowing how hard to see anything would be? The killer more than likely wore Mikio's clothes after undressing. Nobody would pay attention to him or even pay attention to his arm. And even if someone saw the killer, in the middle of the night he'd just be another guy. I mentioned the Takaba case because it is very similar. But we have a description of that killer because the murder was done in broad daylight on top of people noticing the killer's bloodied hand, something that would be hard to do in the night (especially if Miyazawa's killer took his time to wash his hands and cover &treat his wound/s which we know he did). You bring JTR who we know had experience in getting away given what we know about Eddowes and his other victims (had to kill and dispose of their organs in a matter of mere minutes). This killer had all the time in the world to escape his crime and go home. And once he went home, it'd be like searching a needle in a haystack.
I'll accept your point about the TMPD Homicide detectives having less experience
compared to US or European murder detectives -- on the numbers alone. And I too see the parallels between the Miyazaws and Namiko Takaba (as per my thread). But if we are going to get into cases where the police have lots of evidence but fail to find a murderer, then we are going to be jumping all over the Atlas.
The homicide rate in Japan is, as you say, incredible low. You are statistically more likely to die taking a selfie in Japan than you are to be murdered. And the conviction rate there is 99.99999%. Now there are problems with the judicial system in Japan as anyone with a passing knowledge will know. But you could also spin these facts as the TMPD being far, far superior, therefore, to any other police force in the world. I do not. I think this would be a gross simplification.
I have openly spoken against the TMPD
in some regards. I have also praised them in many others. My knowledge of their work is limited but, from what I have seen, I think you're characterisation is unfair. My view is that they are incredibly hard-working and, on the whole, deeply respectful. I also reject the view that any kind of comparative inexperience in the TMPD explains the lack of a result in this case. That's just my personal view. You have yours.
As for the
Nagoya Police, I have zero experience so I take no view. Nagoya Police and the TMPD are two separate forces -- I have been guilty in the past of saying or repeating the phrase "Japanese police". I mention this seeing as you don't like people so speak in monoliths
But the conviction rate is 99% because Japan persecutes cases that they are 100% sure they have all the evidence about. Think that speaks a lot about the judicial system than the police itself. Furthermore, you yourself criticized that in terms of DNA profiles and other police procedures that Japan was heavily outdated in your podcast. There is no doubt in my mind that in terms of homicides the Japanese police is inexperienced. That is a fact (and an absolutely great thing). Hell, the public was led to believe for a decade or more that the killer left in 10 AM. We only learned just recently that this wasn't the case and that one miniscule information might have confused people into not giving information about suspicious guys leaving the area in the early hours of the morning. I am in no way saying the Japanese police is bad (and I do put them in a 'monolith' whether it is Nagoya or Tokyo's PD, they work on virtually the same policies and guidelines unlike the States were there's different rules and all of that), I'm simply saying they're inexperienced when it comes to violent crimes. For example, you might know everything about fighting in theory, but unless you actually spar, you're always going to be handicapped.
Thank you for explaining this to me. Respectfully, I am not ignoring it. But as I say, I don't know what the killer's DNA make up is. Nor do you. However, Dr. M has a fair idea seeing as he analysed it and his opinions are out there. He, too, will be aware of Japan's history. Is he wrong? I don't know, it's possible. As I say --once again-- I am going off only what is known so far. I'm not going to repeat my points above but clearly, there is a chance the killer was foreign. There is a chance he was Japanese. Dr. M, the only person to be quoted on this subject who's actually seen the killer's DNA, says the former is more likely than the latter. I'll go with it until better information comes to light.
Ok, sure. But nobody has actually argued that the killer isn't of Japanese admixture. The question is whether he has traces of Korean DNA or not, not that his DNA is foreign. Even if we presume he has an American nationality, he'd still be of Japanese descent. We also have more clues of him being Japanese such as were he brought his clothes, him being able to read kanji and his height
Yes. There is a chance the killer is ethnically Korean (yes, I'm aware there is some genetic overlap). But the chance of him being from, or having ever visited, Korea is essentially zero. We know this thanks to the words of the Chief and his collaboration with the Korean authorities. This has been ruled out. This in no way infringes on my theory the killer is an American who left Japan shortly after the murders.
But if your suspect was a foreign international traveling in and out of Japan, they'd already have his fingerprints in the database. Yet they don't.
Why am I putting too much credit in it? How can it be vital but also too much credit be put in it? Frankly, I have answered this so many times. I am yet to see one single, solitary solid reason as to why this isn't important. What other clue in this case tells us where the killer was definitively before the murders? Not only that, it tells us he was able to access a closed world. Not open to Japanese, or casual tourists, or even most American citizens. I would like to hear how exactly I have been misled by this.
Because it can be misleading for a number of reasons. He might have been a tourist, the fanny pack itself might have had the traces of sand when he brought it or it might be from the vicinity of Mabori beach. In the search for him being an American you're excluding a lot of the bigger picture. Frankly, given how rare the shirt he wore was and how few of it were sold, tracking that would be a much better lead, especially insofar as narrowing and eliminating the suspects
In the event that more information comes to light and it turns out the sand is not from Edwards, I will change my mind accordingly. My views must change as the evidence does.
I will not get into detail on this as I was told certain things off the record. But yes, we know one sand was from Edwards USAF base in California, the other was from the region around Mabori Beach. I've spoken many times about Lorna Dawson and IDing soil / sand. If you listened to FACELESS, you'll know what I'm referring to.
The bag was manufactured in Osaka. It had no DNA or fingerprints belonging to anyone but the killer. So, (as I've said on this same page of the thread I'm pretty sure), if he bought it from someone else or stole it, he cleaned it in such a way as to remove all forensic traces of a previous owner but somehow still leave sand in the bag. Perhaps this is somehow possible. Again, on likelihood, to me, it is not. As for the idea that the bag came brand-new with sand in it from Mabori and a US military base on the other side of world : I cannot say it's impossible. I just don't see how.
My problem is that focusing too much on the sand angle instead of the whole picture can be misleading. Yes, it is weird, but there are numerous possible explanations and questions. Japan imports sand from the US in great quantity. The sand itself might be from somewhere in Tokyo imported from California. The killer might have been a tourist and went to that area. Or the bag itself might be second hand. We can't know. It's a great lead, no doubt about it, but also not one I want to get pigeon holed in.
I do not say I think he had military training or experience in killing. But how do you know he started killing randomly?
Because the killer goes from the bathroom to the nearest room to him which is Rei's. This is certainly not an approach a calculated murder would take unless we are to believe that the 20 years old something killer would be mad at a 6 years old.
"So what?" Because perhaps he was thinking he had already bled all over the crime scene and now his fingerprints are there too. What difference would all the rest of the evidence make?
I am not saying this was smart. I am saying it's possibly what his thinking was. You not thinking it's a good explanation doesn't mean it isn't the explanation.
So you're telling me he chose to spend needless hours into the house instead of cleaning up the evidence which he had more than enough time to do? I don't buy that.
What the TMPD would do with his DNA / fingerprints if the killer has no criminal record in -let's say- the USA? As far as I know, the TMPD has never spoken with US authorities, though the killer's fingerprints are lodged with Interpol. However, when I spoke to Interpol, I was told: we cannot comment on a case about which we have no information. So, I leave you to decide what has happened there.
And where do I suggest that a country would harbour a murderer because they don't like Japan? Again, I am not saying that his thought process is good or logical. His carelessness doesn't have to make sense to you or me or anyone else.
Then wouldn't all of that suggest that the police force doesn't believe the criminal is a foreigner? My original point was to counter your argument that the killer escaping with all the evidence incriminating him is fine so long as he isn't in Japan. So what if the Japanese authorities hasn't contacted the USA about it? The killer wouldn't have any reason to risk it.
With respect, that's neither here nor there. Very little in this case is ordinary or quotidian. If it were, the killer would already be hanged by now. I'm unsure of your best theory. I've come to my own. It's led to a person of interest who is exactly the very thing you say you find far-fetched. So, again, while you may not find it credible. I do. That's fine.
Though, I must quibble with your characterisation of the house being in the middle of nowhere. It is not.
True. But again I must reaffirm what I said previously - we can only work on what is likely, not on what is possible. As for my description of house, it is quite desolate, with all due respect. There's barely any houses in the vicinity and apparently there were only 4 families in the entire area still remaining at the time of the murders. I mean, it's not in rural America or whatever, but insofar as Tokyo it is quite "hidden". Not something a guy unaware of Tokyo and how huge it is would randomly stumble on.
Why is the house very hard to find?
Because it is in a area where not many people lived, it is obscured from almost all sides via trees, a river and the house itself actually looks like a big house from the outside but is actually two houses that are "connected". It's not a house you would just randomly stumble upon walking. And even if you do, not a house you'd attack blindly.
Again, that's your view. And there areas in which I disagree with them too. But if your argument is that because they haven't solved the case, therefore they are inexperienced and their work deserves to be doubted: I strongly disagree. This is simplistic, in my view, bordering on disrespectful. Though perhaps I've misunderstood your characterisation.
I can only speculate on the amount of evidence we as the public have and what's been done for the past 23 years. I have no actual internal information. And it really wouldn't be a stretch to say they dropped the ball, would it? They have his DNA, fingerprints, blood, clothes, point of entrance, etc. A dreamlike scenario for any investigation. And we all here are still wondering whether it was skaters, some American foreigner or whatever.
I really don't follow this. Because it happened 24 years ago, they can't chase the skater link? Why?
Do you remember what you did more than 23 years ago? And even if you do, do you remember the details?
Your post is lengthy and, again, I appreciate your thoughts. But from here on in, anything that I've answered many, many times, I'm going to simply refer you back to my earlier answers.
With respect, they are up-thread time and again. You are free to look them up if you wish!
I've read the thread and the previous ne. And your information is great and enlightening but I didn't see you discussing why you think the killer was prepared
Fair point, sure. It's been 24 years and if you accept that 280,000 TMPD personnel have gone over this case frontways and backways then perhaps you'll have an explanation for why some personal connection with the killer and the family has been overlooked? I'm yet to hear one. Of course, it's possible he knew them. I just think it's unlikely given what we know.
You misunderstand. I'm not saying the killer was a friend or a family member, all I'm saying is that the killer knew them, he didn't just pick them at random. A skater who had an argument with Mikio would be just that. He knew who was in the house and he was full of rage. He wasn't a random guy who accidentally stumbled upon the house and just decided to enter it for the hell of it and suddenly found himself in a weird situation of having to kill an entire family, including the children.
Why would a random killer be more or less cautious? Also, are random killers fine to be spoken of in monoliths? Once again, thank you for your ideas
@femto. Those are mine. I'll wrap this up here.
What drives serial killers? The urge to kill. Serial killers don't care about their victims. Killing is rarely personal for them, they just do it because they want to. They kill quick and fast and try not to get caught in the process. Even in cases such as the Original Night Stalker (if we want to look at the very definition of an organized serial killer), the torture is mental, not physical. In this case we have a killer who emotionally, without much thought went hacking and slashing in a house full of people along with other stuff he did post crime that shows extreme disrespect to the house and its occupants. This screams 'personal', not something a random guy would do.
Because if a random guy would want to kill, why would he attack such a weirdly complex house? Why would he plunge himself with nowhere to go and attack an entire family with a simple knife? Why would he put himself in such a risk doing nonsensical stuff post-crime? Nothing in this scenario gels.
Do you believe that a skateboarder must have their own skateboard to gain acceptance within the skating group? I'd venture to say it's uncommon for skaters to share their boards. If that's the case, the guy in question could be a novice or simply someone who attends the skating spot, watching but not yet fully integrated. This might explain why no one has identified him to the police.
I think the killer might have known people in the area, but probably wasn't a big regular in that specific park. I think he might have visited it from time to time but skated all over Tokyo. But the problem with 'identifying' him is that the guy might be completely normal to the outside world. People are not gonna randomly point at their friend or acquaintance and say 'hey, this guy might be a crazed psychopath' unless he seriously raised these red flags which I doubt he did because he'd be caught by now.
I'd like to emphasise the significance of every clue in this case, even the smallest details like a few grains of sand, especially if that sand is uncommon and of foreign origin. However, what puzzles me is how we determine how the foreign sand ended up in the killer's bag. One possibility is that the bag travelled to the US and picked up the sand there. Another possibility is that the sand travelled to Japan in another bag through importation, as Japan imports sand from the US. Specifically, when discussing sand from the Mojave Desert, it's important to note that at least six silica sand mines are located in Kern County, very close to where Edwards AFB is situated: Silver Queen Mine In Mojave, Taft Pit In Taft, Sand Ridge Preserve Silica Mine Near Di Giorgio, Chalk Cliff Prospect Near Oildale, Kern River Pit In Bakersfield, Great White Way Deposit Near Onyx. Japan uses silica sand in industries such as glassmaking, foundry work and other. Additionally, I believe some glass beads were also found in the bag or pockets. This case is incredibly complex, but I hope the police will soon make progress and bring the perpetrator to justice.
I think the grain of sand is a very integral clue, but I feel focusing too much can lead us to missing the bigger picture. Because there's numerous way a sand can get in that bag. The killer could have travelled there as a tourist, brought the bag second hand, the sand imported to Japan, as you suggested, or the killer being an American expat/military. All of these are possible but I find the last one least possible simply because all of the other things about the killer point to him being a native to Kanto. Him being able to read kanji, his clothes all being brought from Japan and more specifically the Tokyo region, him choosing to drink tea (a very Japanese and Asian drink of choice) instead of soda and finally his estimated height which would be on the very short side of a white man and especially for an American military officer.
zh.wikipedia.org
