Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

[pineapple23]

If she slipped and fell as seems to be the conclusion police have made, it still doesn't seem logical to me she'd go under and drown without trying to climb / scratch the side or yell out for help. Perhaps she fell and was knocked unconscious upon landing or was injured to the extent she couldn't keep herself above water.

I'm sure she would have struggled but she might have taken in water and her clothes would have been weighing her down. Plus someone more expert than me posted earlier about the impact of cold water.

 

[karakuchi]

Such a sad story, like you all I've been following it closely as it really is bizarre.

Can I just emphasise as others have, a lot of you are SEVERELY underestimating falling unexpectedly into cold water. It was 2 degrees celsius at night, so the water was probably close to freezing. You fall in that fully clothed, you can't scream, you can't move and you will sink. In addition, this is not a pool, there are weeds, undergrowth and currents to contend with.

I live in London, and people regularly fall into the canals and die all the time (which are actually very shallow, but full of undergrowth & junk) - in fact a young fit man, only 30 years old, fell off his canal boat, simply misplaced his step, 100m from where I live and never came back up - and this is with people seeing it occur!

It took the police and rescue days to find him. Eventually, he was found at the bottom of the weir only 15/20 metres away.
Again, you have no chance when falling into freezing water wearing winter clothing/boots/jackets etc.

To add to this, I've actually experienced this myself supervised in a pool for a life-saving course in New Zealand. I went in wearing jeans, sneakers and a shirt - it's absolutely terrifying, and that was supervised and knowing what was about to happen.

My theory is the call/meeting was coming to an end, it was boring small talk.
She put the phone on speaker, and placed it beside her.
Perhaps she threw a ball or the dog was distracted and about to go into the water.
Knowing she was about to leave, and didn't want a wet dog in the car, she walked over to the dog to attach the harness.
As others have said, she was wearing essentially a sleeping bag.
As she has knelt down to attach the harness she's lost her balance and fallen in.
The shock has set in, and her clothes have weighed her down, pulling her to the bottom.

<modsnip>

 

[SpursGyal]

I read Willow is stuck to her ball. If NB has fallen in then I can see a scenario where she has thrown the ball, it has rolled down the bank, Willow has barked agitated to tell NB her ball is in the water. Willow may not have wanted to jump in cos cold etc or prefers going from the shallow. NB is trying to listen to call but can't, concentrate cos Willow barking, goes down embankment, sees ball in water and leans over with a twig etc to bring it to her. Willow excited gets under her feet as dogs do and loses her footing and falls in.

You you climb down that bank to retrieve a ball? At the end of a walk?

I wouldn’t.

If Willow is a ball lover, like many spaniels are, she’ll have plenty, and won’t be attached to one ball. They were presumably at the end of the walk and there would have been other balls at home.

 

[wens67]

I fell in some water by accident in Devon a couple of years ago and went under. It was the height of Summer but the water was on dartmoor and even though it was a boiling hot day I still remember gasping as I came back up with the shock of the coldness.

It has been icy etc and that ice and snow has been melting bit by bit so I would imagine the water would be unbearable, also if she went head first she could have hit her head on the bottom.

 

[JumpingFrog]

Something that is bugging me - police not giving public photos of NB's clothing... obviously we sleuthers have found the items.

The thing that's twisting my swede!:

If the gilet coat, engulfed with water, became a heavy weight like a soaked duvet, this would have happened instantly. Therefore, as much as my brain would let me understand - NB would still be around where she entered, surely?

The river was said to be low and calm that morning. The SAR were in the water for 7 hours that day, searching 1 mile up, 3 miles down.

Yes the police officer states today that after the weir the river becomes tidal. But...

The gilet would act like a weight?

 

[PandaMarch]

Which is kind of the exam question. If the police know exactly where and when she fell in the river a week ago, why haven't they found her yet?

It's tidal and around 15km down to the sea. Probably a good idea to read the link that has been posted about the challenges of searching in water

 

[DFR3217]

I wasn't referring to not having hope. Of course we all hope she is alive and well. But I'm just not sure an alternative scenario involving a third party leads to much hope unfortunately. JMO

This is true, but from my perspective if there was a third party then I'd like whoever they were to be caught. It's not so much about preferred options, as we have no control over what actually happened, it's just that whatever actually happened should be correctly identified.

 

[Edinlass]

Something that is bugging me - police not giving public photos of NB's clothing... obviously we sleuthers have found the items.

The thing that's twisting my swede!:

If the gilet coat, engulfed with water, became a heavy weight like a soaked duvet, this would have happened instantly. Therefore, as much as my brain would let me understand - NB would still be around where she entered, surely?

The river was said to be low and calm that morning. The SAR were in the water for 7 hours that day, searching 1 mile up, 3 miles down.

Yes the police officer states today that after the weir the river becomes tidal. But...

The gilet would act like a weight?

I agree 100% BUT in regards to the gilet, I have one albeit I don’t know if it’s the same make/material/lining but when wet it is very light, I was even surprised how quick it dried.

 

[kittythehare]

Something that is bugging me - police not giving public photos of NB's clothing... obviously we sleuthers have found the items.

The thing that's twisting my swede!:

If the gilet coat, engulfed with water, became a heavy weight like a soaked duvet, this would have happened instantly. Therefore, as much as my brain would let me understand - NB would still be around where she entered, surely?

The river was said to be low and calm that morning. The SAR were in the water for 7 hours that day, searching 1 mile up, 3 miles down.

Yes the police officer states today that after the weir the river becomes tidal. But...

The gilet would act like a weight?

She had a coat on under the gilet too though..

 

[heatherc]

Something that is bugging me - police not giving public photos of NB's clothing... obviously we sleuthers have found the items.

The thing that's twisting my swede!:

If the gilet coat, engulfed with water, became a heavy weight like a soaked duvet, this would have happened instantly. Therefore, as much as my brain would let me understand - NB would still be around where she entered, surely?

The river was said to be low and calm that morning. The SAR were in the water for 7 hours that day, searching 1 mile up, 3 miles down.

Yes the police officer states today that after the weir the river becomes tidal. But...

The gilet would act like a weight?

This is what is bothering me. The response and search were pretty much instant, I wouldn't have thought she would have travelled far especially if it was said to be low and calm that morning. But again I don't know much about that, it is just an uneducated assumption.

 

[JumpingFrog]

This is true, but from my perspective if there was a third party then I'd like whoever they were to be caught. It's not so much about preferred options, as we have no control over what actually happened, it's just that whatever actually happened should be correctly identified.

Much rather be wrong and annoying if there's any chance we could find truth and justice IF someone's been the victim of a crime or miscarriage of justice, that's why WS is on Netflix etc!

 

[PandaMarch]

If she slipped and fell as seems to be the conclusion police have made, it still doesn't seem logical to me she'd go under and drown without trying to climb / scratch the side or yell out for help. Perhaps she fell and was knocked unconscious upon landing or was injured to the extent she couldn't keep herself above water.

others have posted numerous times about shock response in v cold water, her clothing etc

 

[JumpingFrog]

She had a coat on under the gilet too though..

It's really confusing me kitty!

 

[Edinlass]

Much rather be wrong and annoying if there's any chance we could find truth and justice IF someone's been the victim of a crime or miscarriage of justice, that's why WS is on Netflix etc!

Yup, 100%. The alternative is we just all discuss the one and only avenue the police have presented us with, not much help imo. Also, that won’t only be the avenue they are exploring, we just aren’t privy to it for obvious reasons.

 

[Themac101]

It's tidal and around 15km down to the sea. Probably a good idea to read the link that has been posted about the challenges of searching in water

It’s not tidal above the weir.

 

[Grouse]

Something that is bugging me - police not giving public photos of NB's clothing... obviously we sleuthers have found the items.

The thing that's twisting my swede!:

If the gilet coat, engulfed with water, became a heavy weight like a soaked duvet, this would have happened instantly. Therefore, as much as my brain would let me understand - NB would still be around where she entered, surely?

The river was said to be low and calm that morning. The SAR were in the water for 7 hours that day, searching 1 mile up, 3 miles down.

Yes the police officer states today that after the weir the river becomes tidal. But...

The gilet would act like a weight?

I'm pretty sure in one of the earlier threads someone said they had one of these type of gilets and it was extremely light when wet when they washed it. The coat underneath might have been heavy when wet.

It's a shame in the presser that no one asked about the delay from phone and dog being found at 09:33 and alarm raised at 10:50. Unless that was a mistake and it was 09:50, then that's a long time in the water to potentially take her downstream to the weir and beyond . The dark clothing wouldn't help either in terms of being spotted in the water.

 

[PandaMarch]

It’s not tidal above the weir.

but we don't know that she is above the weir

 

[Firstsnow4]

I'm pretty sure in one of the earlier threads someone said they had one of these type of gilets and it was extremely light when wet when they washed it. The coat underneath might have been heavy when wet.

It's a shame in the presser that no one asked about the delay from phone and dog being found at 09:33 and alarm raised at 10:50. Unless that was a mistake and it was 09:50, then that's a long time in the water to potentially take her downstream to the weir and beyond, and with the dark . The dark clothing wouldn't help either in terms of being spotted in the water.

Did you hear it as 10.50 aswell then? Does seem like a long time. JMO

 

[Edinlass]

I'm pretty sure in one of the earlier threads someone said they had one of these type of gilets and it was extremely light when wet when they washed it. The coat underneath might have been heavy when wet.

It's a shame in the presser that no one asked about the delay from phone and dog being found at 09:33 and alarm raised at 10:50. Unless that was a mistake and it was 09:50, then that's a long time in the water to potentially take her downstream to the weir and beyond, and with the dark . The dark clothing wouldn't help either in terms of being spotted in the water.

It was me, and yes mines is very light when wet. I also wear a coat underneath it sometimes as it’s really more a fashion accessory the gilet rather than warm protection.

 

[JumpingFrog]

I'm pretty sure in one of the earlier threads someone said they had one of these type of gilets and it was extremely light when wet when they washed it. The coat underneath might have been heavy when wet.

It's a shame in the presser that no one asked about the delay from phone and dog being found at 09:33 and alarm raised at 10:50. Unless that was a mistake and it was 09:50, then that's a long time in the water to potentially take her downstream to the weir and beyond, and with the dark . The dark clothing wouldn't help either in terms of being spotted in the water.

Not disagreeing and value your response - just finding it hard to understand it's as simple and easy as being stated, plus reports and theories have all been difficult to follow this week - wellies weigh a person down, gilet is heavy, gilet is light...where's the wellies anyway? And Fitbit? They'd come off surely?