Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[Firstsnow4]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623620264910110720

 

[sriraaacha]

My OH is 5'0, slight build and is 62kg.

Why do you say it's not relevant to the case? I thought the whole point of this forum is to raise, consider and discuss theories? How on earth can you suggest that something is not relevant?

Maybe the fact that no one was around to hear something large making a splash in the water?
What about the wash created?

Again, it makes you think that maybe she didn't go into the water at all?

If she went in and was struggling to get out then why did no one hear any shouting? Surely people at the campsite would've heard?

Unless she was unable to shout!

Maybe your OH is full of muscle then. I was just saying her weight wouldn't be very relevant to the case because her weight could be 10kg minus or plus what we suggested lol... that doesn't mean if she was heavier she wouldn't have been abducted or vice versa!

As has already been spoken about before, if you fall into the water that also doesn't mean you'll be able to shout. What if Nicola hit her head and knocked herself out? What if the cold shock got to her straight away? Or what if she had such a fall that she went straight down into that supposed 15ft of water and just never came back up for whatever reason... getting hooked on something under there or maybe she couldn't grab hold of something to get out? It's not as simple as people seem to think it is. If you've got a fishing angler who goes there telling you it's deep and that they wouldn't want to fall in themselves, that's worth listening to imo!

 

[DazN]

A sad read but again another extensive search in a nearby location that proved fruitless until months after.

https://www.lep.co.uk/news/nicola-bulley-we-know-her-familys-pain-say-preston-family-who-lost-a-son-in-the-same-stretch-of-river-on-the-same-day-45-years-ago-4019028

People keep posting this article, which also mentions that the river was in flood at the time. It was also 5 miles away on a tributary of the Wyre so not really 'the same stretch' the article claims by quite a way. IMO

"It was 3am before police were alerted that someone was missing and returned to the bridge which was over a fast-flowing stream in flood."

 

[cottonweaver]

Amateur sleuths looking for Nicola Bulley stopped from searching house

More on the the story about a group searching for NB at the abandoned house last night.

cc @mrjitty re the irresponsible reporting comments, yesterday ...?

 

[Cluella DeVille]

None we have.

But we can infer the phone's location data will show it travel to the bench, because it remained continuously connected to the teams meeting.

Maybe someone was with her, we don't know, but it would be hard to abduct her and take her phone to the bench.

Speculation of course, but she could have had a brief conversation with someone (known or unknown to her) during her walk who suggested they meet over by the bench at 9.20 to continue their chat. She could have walked back to the bench area with Willow, the 'other' person getting there via an alternative route?

 

[Karin1974]

Not entirely sure this is entirely factual. On the article where her Fitbit was mentioned regarding Tuesday, it was her friend that has stated it hadn’t been synced and LE stated they had 3rd Party Apps that could access the Fitbit data. So, we do not categorically know that data has obtained from the Fitbit or related phone app.

IMO I agree with you & I’m not trying to deliberately be argumentative with other people, however, I’ve owned Fitbits for nearly 15 years. At one stage, after a couple of years of use, I had one that I could not charge, I tried everything the Fitbit website told me to do, I couldn’t get it to charge. I contacted Fitbit & within a day they called me & whilst it had a completely flat battery, they somehow remotely accessed my Fitbit data & told me when I had last synched it & the last time I had charged it successfully. They were able to do something to it that fixed it so that it started charging again & it was done over the phone. I’m in Australia & there are no Fitbit shops in this country to take them to for fixing. MOO

 

[MsBetsy]

IMO the intense land/air scrutiny and intent focus on that river since day one, a floating or partial floating body would very likely have been spotted at some point over the course of almost 2 weeks. The fact that the river has remained calm and still, little or no rain to raise the levels or to cause a surge will have surely advantaged the search

Yes, it's probably more likely that the rate of decomp is so slow that the body settled on the bottom in deep water.

That's probably why many drowning victims are found once the weather gets warmer in the Spring.

 

[bringmeacupoft]

Amateur sleuths looking for Nicola Bulley stopped from searching house

More on the the story about a group searching for NB at the abandoned house last night.

This is absolutely ridiculous, you can’t just go into other peoples property.

Interesting from thr article

“Heather Gibbons, who has been speaking on behalf of the family, said she had personally spoken to the owner and he had searched the abandoned house and derelict outbuildings.

She said on Facebook: 'Here are some facts that need to be known.

'It's not abandoned. Its owned by a lovely family who have lived in this village for generations and would do anything they can to help in the search for Nikki.

'It has been searched, inside and outside, from top to bottom by the police. I have clarified this with the family themselves and also with the police. They have never refused entry to the police or told them they need a warrant to search'.”

Yet another family/friend spokesperson who ‘knows’ and this is in direct conflict to the other family/friend spokesperson who said it hasn’t been searched.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

I agree and I think the key missing piece is evidence of a slip or fall on the bank of the river. Even if she was on the edge and toppled over, you would expect footprints or signs of walking to be evident as it would not be an area with heavy footfall.

As such, and given it is now accepted an exit from the field unseen was possible, this means a third party involvement is just as plausible. To get up from the bench without taking your phone would require something urgent. Perhaps the dog was scrapping with a larger dog, someone was stealing the dog or she saw/heard someone in distress. If she ran off in the direction of the exit with no CCTV, it seems entirely plausible that an incident occurred and she then left the field in that 10 minute timeframe without anyone seeing. The puzzle then is the dog, it would have to have been distracted during the incident itself and returned to the bench expecting to find NB there

You’d expect something like a slip mark, pulled grass where she tried to break her fall, a footprint a glove, a hair band, a boot, house keys - on land or in the water - something.

To go in fully clothed, thrash around in a cold water shock panic - and not lose a single item from her person - (and your clothes sort of float upward in the water) and then sink completely without trace all within 13 minutes - seems extraordinary.

 

[NextSprint]

The flood monitoring/overflow station that's on the other side of the Wyre directly opposite Rowanwater, seems awfully over-protected. Look closely and you see at the very least floodlights, but possibly cameras as well? I guess a remote flood monitoring station ought to have cameras considering what it's for.

Just wondering, because of the height of those installation, could they be checked for useful footage of the 27th?

(Here's a link to the station in case anybody doesn't know where it is (zoom out from street level and you'll immediately recognise the location: Google Maps)

 

[Davieson]

One thing I have never understood is why did they ring the school when Willow had a tag on her collar which would have had her owners phone number/s on?

Wouldn't be much use if the number was that of the mobile sitting on the bench

 

[Fishwick]

Speculation of course, but she could have had a brief conversation with someone (known or unknown to her) during her walk who suggested they meet over by the bench at 9.20 to continue their chat. She could have walked back to the bench area with Willow, the 'other' person getting there via an alternative route?

She could - but what happened next? The police are fairly sure they have the exits covered apart from the one NB entered the fields from (albeit agree with others that an exit outside of paths is possible).

I'd encourage people to view the videos on this route - it's long and thin, with barely any places to exit and large parts of it fenced. Any abduction or similar going out via this path would be highly visible to anyone else along it.

 

[pineapple23]

If she went in and was struggling to get out then why did no one hear any shouting? Surely people at the campsite would've heard?

Unless she was unable to shout!

I've been close to drowning twice. One time was in the middle of a busy swimming pool. I went under and back up several times. I was fighting for breath and it was all totally silent because I couldn't breathe. On possibly my last surfacing, someone, totally unaware, happened to be going past with a life belt which I grabbed.
Another time I got swept out into the North Sea by an undertow. There was no point in shouting - was just trying to stay afloat and not swallow too much water. I was rescued after an hour.

 

[NextSprint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623620264910110720

Yeah we know the facts already, and they're annoyingly gnarly.

 

[Firstsnow4]

The police are so convinced that there is not a criminal element, add to that:
1. High risk missing person
2. Fast response by PA to call police
3. Very small window for foul play
4. Police now saying she could have exited Garstang path lane unseen

I revert back to my previous post. It may be harsh and sad but despite outwardly appearing happy, you just don’t know how people are really feeling. IMO.

Post in thread 'UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8'
UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

 

[mrjitty]

The kind of insights the digital forensics team might be able to get from the phone GPS and tower data:

* remember the phone is continuously streaming data over the tower to deliver the teams meeting *

1. When exactly was the phone at each location along the walk (lane, field etc) - this gives a near exact timing for the witnesses

2. When exactly did the phone reach the bench area

3. Did the phone 'walk' continuously in the upper field, or did it stop anywhere?

For instance, if the walk was fairly continuous until the bench, one might be able to infer that NB did simply do a circuit before ending the walk at the bench.

Not saying that is what happens but offering explanation as to why police might have confidence about certain aspects of the timeline.

 

[OrlandoJames]

There is no evidence to suggest NB put the phone on the bench. The last sighting of her was in the upper field.

If her phone was found on the bench, the bench was part of her usual walk and her dog was found close to the bench, it's reasonable to assume that Nicola was at the bench.

 

[thirdrateamywinehouse]

I have seen a lot of frustration on here, about the insistence "She fell in the water" I cannot believe how frustrating it must be for the family, I really hope that the police are just keeping things close, and not just wedded to the idea and have confirmation bias (although can it be confirmation bias if there's no evidence?)

MOO Theory: Anyway, have you seen the pictures on google maps of the field? There is a dog walker in one of the pictures, and when I was looking the thought occurred, I can see the dog pretty well, I can see the colour of the coat and trousers, but that's it. I don't know if I could recognise my own child at that distance. We know Willow, and the phone were in that field at 9.10, but all we know is someone who matched NBs description was in that field with Willow off the lead. I am no longer sure we can say NB was in that field at all. We know she sent a text message at 8.53, and there doesn't appear to be anything suspicious about the text, and we know she dropped the kids off at school. But that's actually it.

I get A LOT of teams calls/ meetings. It annoyingly bleeps when a call comes in, so the fact that she signed in to the meeting at 9.01, but if we have a 9am meeting, most of us sign in at 8.59am. (I would guess they have asked is it usual shes late?)

Speculation bit: What I'm saying is, if we extend the timeline to she dropped the kids off 8.43, walked towards her normal walk, met the other dog walker and sent a text and 8.53, the chance of something happening to her becomes a lot more possible. If it was planned, an accomplice wearing black clothing, maybe not even planned just incidental, walking the dog and the phone to the "edge of the water" to place the idea shes fallen in. Would be seen at a distance as NB. But CCTV would show a completed different person, not suspiciously leaving the field. I also speculate that if you were carrying someones phone to create an artificial timeline and a teams call started, you might after a few moments of indecision decide to "join" on mute and camera off to seem that the phone was with NB later than it actually was.

 

[mrjitty]

cc @mrjitty re the irresponsible reporting comments, yesterday ...?

This stuff annoys me so much!

Why do they keep publishing images of the house and describe it as 'abandoned'

 

[cottonweaver]

This is absolutely ridiculous, you can’t just go into other peoples property.

Interesting from thr article

“Heather Gibbons, who has been speaking on behalf of the family, said she had personally spoken to the owner and he had searched the abandoned house and derelict outbuildings.

She said on Facebook: 'Here are some facts that need to be known.

'It's not abandoned. Its owned by a lovely family who have lived in this village for generations and would do anything they can to help in the search for Nikki.

'It has been searched, inside and outside, from top to bottom by the police. I have clarified this with the family themselves and also with the police. They have never refused entry to the police or told them they need a warrant to search'.”

Yet another family/friend spokesperson who ‘knows’ and this is in direct conflict to the other family/friend spokesperson who said it hasn’t been searched.

Shocking and just a day after the last presser where Supt Sally Riley warned people to stop breaking into properties.
And, naturally it's the same 'newspaper' which 24 hrs earlier broadcast the erroneous information to an audience of millions.