Ugh, reflecting on our weather this weekend and today...I just took my dog for a walk in our woods and needed to wear my puffy jacket. It's 43 degrees F and breezy here. Yesterday's high was 46 degrees. Monday's high was 47 degrees. The lowest night temperature was 40 degrees over the past few days, so every night it was in the low 40s. (I have a digital weather system, so I can easily see this information.)
I now live in the Vermont mountains on the Canadian border, about an hour as the crow flies north of Bolton. Northern VT had heavy rain starting around 3 PM Saturday afternoon, and in some places, it was torrential. We're still in a moderate drought up here near Canada, so the rivers and brooks have been low but when it pours, they rise fast. Our brook was gushing Saturday evening and Sunday. The day started out mild by northern Vermont standards this time of year, in the low 70s (higher in the mountains it was chillier, but still low 60s). But the rain brought a cold front and temps at our house dropped almost 10 degrees in about half an hour, and it continued to get colder and also rain into Sunday morning. At our house, it was a high of 70 degrees at 3:19 PM, by midnight it was 55 degrees, by morning it was 47 degrees. It only reached a high of 57 degrees at 2 PM Sunday. Oh, and it was WINDY the entire time.
I'm guessing the weather in Bolton was similar over the weekend. It appears to be similar now, because NOAA is calling for a high today of 43 up at the resort, and 48 in the valley, and also some more rain. I can tell they had heavy rain like we did by looking at the NOAA's river forecast. The Winooski River at the bottom of the mountain rose about 1.25 feet between 10 AM Saturday and 10 AM Sunday. It actually continued to rise during the day Sunday, about 1.5 feet since 10 AM Saturday, and now is dropping to about a half-foot higher than it was Saturday morning. There isn't a water gauge on the brook that comes down the mountain, where the Bolton Potholes are, but it would have risen at least that much, if not more, since it's pouring down a steep mountain before emptying into the river. Many people have had to be rescued from the Bolton Potholes (aka swimming holes), and quite a few people have died, when they've underestimated the power of the water. People get flushed down the mountain. It would be hard to find a body. The Bolton Potholes are a big attraction for hikers even during fall foliage.
What was Emily wearing? Were they just driving for a foliage tour? Or had they done some hiking/planned on hiking and therefore dressed more appropriately for the weather? One thing we know for sure: if she got out of the car at 1 PM when the weather was still clear, within a few hours it was raining hard and she was getting soaked if she was still outside walking around. Even if she was dressed appropriately for fall hiking, she would be cold and wet about 2 hours after getting out of the car.
And given we had this rainstorm and drop in temperature, why wouldn't her husband report her missing if he looked and couldn't find her? She was certainly in danger of hypothermia in the weather. By Monday when the police started searching for her, she'd have been wet and very cold for about 2 days. Now it's been 3 days of being wet and very cold, if she's still outside and still alive.
People who come to this area for vacation have a ton of places to visit and a ton of places to get outdoors to hike, mountain bike, kayak/canoe, etc. Bolton provides quick access to many hiking options: hiking up at Bolton Valley Resort, hiking all over Stowe, hiking at Smugglers' Notch, hiking in Waterbury, hiking Camel's Hump, and more. There are mountain biking trails in all those places too. Fall foliage tours along back roads take you through remote valleys and over remote parts of mountains. There's even a popular drive through Smugglers' Notch where people park and wander around the boulder fields and forest (no hiking required, just easy walking, unless you want to access harder trails). Drive an hour north to the Canadian border and a popular ski resort, or drive an hour south to the Mad River Valley and two ski resorts, drive a half hour to Lake Champlain/Burlington, or drive an hour and a half into the Northeast Kingdom, which is the most remote part of Vermont.
So many awesome places to explore...and to disappear in. Certainly helps if you're searching for a person in the right place.
