Since there isn't any new information to work with, I've started looking back at reports from the early phase of the investigation. This is related to our earlier discussion about LE watching the parent's emotions.
I wasn't closely following this case during the first few days, but now I think LE was giving us clues at that time. I think the implication that LE wanted to watch the behavior of the parents was one strong clue.
I think another clue is that FBI behavioral analysts were called in immediately. If LE was watching the parent's behavior, and there were no other actual suspects at the time, don't we have to assume that LE and the FBI were actually analyzing the behavior of the family?
On the Wednesday following the abduction, it was reported that "Her bedroom window was open and a screen was off" but Villasenor said police "have never said that was a point of entry."
This report continued with:
"FBI profilers have completed work inside the Tucson home of the missing 6-year-old, and police are switching from a search to an investigative phase, Villaseñor said Wednesday."
"Of the FBI search team, Villaseñor said, "I'M HOPING THEY SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY." He declined to disclose details of what the team found."
Villasenor said he hoped that the FBI saw things differently. That leads me to believe that local LE had a very definite opinion (even at that early date). IMO LE has continually directed public suspicion toward the parents, so I believe that the family was already the focus of this investigation.
I can't imagine that LE would immediately focus on the parents unless they believed that the abduction was staged or that the actual evidence did not match the Celis account.
If the window was not the entry point, that screen was removed for some reason. What other reasonable explanation would there be except some type of staging? By the time of the Today show interview, even Sergio seemed to be unsure that the window was actually the entry point (although the whole family directed attention to the window in the 911 calls).
http://azpm.org/news/story/2012/4/22/181-tucson-police-looking-for-missing-6-year-old/