Bug bite or ear infection?

[redheadedgal]

sorry-- stats tutorial is over for the day. teacher needs to go watch grey's anatomy. i posted links for you to read. if you don't want to read them, that's your choice. it'd be nice if you'd try though. i posted non-complicated links that i specifically searched for (unlike the complicated wiki one lol)

 

[melissasmom]

If someones behavior is way outside of the norm, it should be obvious for all to see. Would the graph tell you why the behavior was abnormal?

That is my main problem with the bell graph. Like hambirg said, you need a large sample size. But there is NOT a large sample size of cases where a baby went missing from her home in the middle of the night. There may be a large sample (unfortunately) of parents of missing children, but cases are so different. I think it would be interesting to see such a thing, but this case is just so ODD. I would have to say, and no disrespect to those who really like statistical data, that this case probably is going to fall ouside that bell curve. But just because it does, that doesn't make it a FACT that the parents are responsible. It will just reinforce the opinion of those who feel that DB had something to do with Lisa's disappearance. Maybe if there was a curve that included EVIDENCE, I would trust that more than behaviors, I think.

 

[highflyer]

Reminds me of Ross Perot and the "looky here at this chart" quote.

 

[melissasmom]

Reminds me of Ross Perot and the "looky here at this chart" quote.

:floorlaugh:
Ahh, good ole Ross Perot. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[RANCH]

That is my main problem with the bell graph. Like hambirg said, you need a large sample size. But there is NOT a large sample size of cases where a baby went missing from her home in the middle of the night. There may be a large sample (unfortunately) of parents of missing children, but cases are so different. I think it would be interesting to see such a thing, but this case is just so ODD. I would have to say, and no disrespect to those who really like statistical data, that this case probably is going to fall ouside that bell curve. But just because it does, that doesn't make it a FACT that the parents are responsible. It will just reinforce the opinion of those who feel that DB had something to do with Lisa's disappearance. Maybe if there was a curve that included EVIDENCE, I would trust that more than behaviors, I think.

Evidence is a dirty word. You need to talk about "hinkey meters", "gut feelings" and now "bell curves" to get to the truth.

What happened to looking at the evidence and then coming to a conclusion. What happened to there's not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. JMO.

 

[melissasmom]

Evidence is a dirty word. You need to talk about "hinkey meters", "gut feelings" and now "bell curves" to get to the truth.

What happened to looking at the evidence and then coming to a conclusion. What happened to there's not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. JMO.

*sigh* Yes, I know. That is why I get so very frustrated on this case. I cannot, in good faith, say someone committed a murder or participated in covering up an accidental death, when I don't see any PROOF of it. I don't really know how others can, but we are all different I guess.

 

[Truthwillsetufree]

That is my main problem with the bell graph. Like hambirg said, you need a large sample size. But there is NOT a large sample size of cases where a baby went missing from her home in the middle of the night. There may be a large sample (unfortunately) of parents of missing children, but cases are so different. I think it would be interesting to see such a thing, but this case is just so ODD. I would have to say, and no disrespect to those who really like statistical data, that this case probably is going to fall ouside that bell curve. But just because it does, that doesn't make it a FACT that the parents are responsible. It will just reinforce the opinion of those who feel that DB had something to do with Lisa's disappearance. Maybe if there was a curve that included EVIDENCE, I would trust that more than behaviors, I think.

In all reality, these missing children cases are not that different or odd. It happens every single day.
800,000 children younger than 18 are missing each year, or an average of 2,000 children reported missing each day.
200,000 children were were abducted by family members.
58,000 children were abducted by nonfamily members, and
115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. These crimes involve someone the child does not know, or knows only slightly, who holds the child overnight, transports the child 50 miles or more, kills the child, demands ransom, or intends to keep the child permanently.
http://www.missingkids.com/missingkids/servlet/PageServlet?LanguageCountry=en_US&PageId=2816

 

[vlpate]

In all reality, these missing children cases are not that different or odd. It happens every single day.
800,000 children younger than 18 are missing each year, or an average of 2,000 children reported missing each day.
200,000 children were were abducted by family members.
58,000 children were abducted by nonfamily members, and
115 children were the victims of “stereotypical” kidnapping. These crimes involve someone the child does not know, or knows only slightly, who holds the child overnight, transports the child 50 miles or more, kills the child, demands ransom, or intends to keep the child permanently.
http://www.missingkids.com/missingkids/servlet/PageServlet?LanguageCountry=en_US&PageId=2816

Three to four children are killed by a parent every day.

Babies actually being kidnpped from their cribs is rare. Parents faking a missing child because they've killed them is not.

 

[vlpate]

*sigh* Yes, I know. That is why I get so very frustrated on this case. I cannot, in good faith, say someone committed a murder or participated in covering up an accidental death, when I don't see any PROOF of it. I don't really know how others can, but we are all different I guess.

The key is to relax and reach your own conclusions or theories - don't worry what others might be speculating or concluding. Most especially, don't worry about what they think of your speculations or conclusions ... it doesn't matter - stick to your guns and call it a day. What I think is worse than "gut feelings" is someone who only complains about everyone's opinion but never has one of their own. I respect that you at least have one, whether it agrees with mine or not

Sleuthing is based on fact, and, at least in part, "gut feeling" and "instinct". There'd be no need for this forum if we only expressed theories based on cold hard facts because we are rarely privy to them in an on-going case.

 

[vlpate]

Evidence is a dirty word. You need to talk about "hinkey meters", "gut feelings" and now "bell curves" to get to the truth.

What happened to looking at the evidence and then coming to a conclusion. What happened to there's not enough evidence to come to a conclusion. JMO.

By it's definition, a sleuth is a "sense" detective - and thus, our name, Websleuths. I hope this helps.

 

[vlpate]

I never had a "stats class" in high school. Maybe that's why this bell curve stuff leaves me a bit confused. Is it really possible to graph out with data points whether someone is telling the truth or not?

Based on normal distribution, yes. It's really not that complicated.

 

[vlpate]

If someones behavior is way outside of the norm, it should be obvious for all to see. Would the graph tell you why the behavior was abnormal?

BEM: Of course not. Does the Census tell you why there are more whites than Hispanic in the US? No....but common sense and remedial history would.

 

[highflyer]

By it's definition, a sleuth is a "sense" detective - and thus, our name, Websleuths. I hope this helps.

Really. Are you sure?

 

[vlpate]

Hey, I admit I'm only a high school grad so when I see posts about bell graphs and whatever I feel a bit lost. I'm more of a down to earth kind of guy. You know a KISS "keep it simple stupid" type of person.

I get ya, there are some really intelligent people on here that I secretly wish would dumb it down for me sometimes....then I research the subject and voila - much of what they are talking about suddenly makes sense. One's education should never stop - heck, if I thought I learned all there was to know in high school, I'd have lost my job to someone in another Country by now! JMO.

But this is all off topic which I'd love to return to.....what is the significance of the bug bite, a cold, and the ear infection? Benedryl as treatment or coincidence that all three COULD BE treated by Benedryl? Was Lisa given Benedryl?

 

[vlpate]

Really. Are you sure?

Positive of it's origin. Back to topic?

 

[redheadedgal]

gut feelings help solve crimes:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1309879/Gut-feelings-help-solve-crimes.html

 

[Dewey2Me1MoThyme]

Maybe it's not necessarily a bug bite vs infection, but an infection from a bug bite (or sting)

 

[vlpate]

Maybe it's not necessarily a bug bite vs infection, but an infection from a bug bite (or sting)

I tend to believe she had a bug bite, and it must have been sizable enough to mention on the amber alert (I think, I know on the posters), so maybe it was infected - or maybe she was allergic to whatever bit her. The bug bite never bothered me until she mentioned the ear infection.

She reminds me a lot of Stacey Barker. Her story was filled with inconsistencies as well - today she sits in prison. LE questioned her hard on the day her baby went missing - she also said it was a kidnapping. By the end of 11 hours, Stacey Barker showed cops where the baby was thrown on the side of the road. She said it was an accident. It was four months before LE arrested her. Fortunately, the baby gave LE and the coroner the clues they needed.

ETA: Just a note on the above - the first person Stacey called was her brother, not 911.

 

[Dewey2Me1MoThyme]

If the bug bite caused the infection I don't see how that is inconsistant. MOO

 

[melissasmom]

If the bug bite caused the infection I don't see how that is inconsistant. MOO

I think Lisa probably DID have a bug bite, and I don't think it had anything to do with an ear infection. When an Amber Alert is issued, what they want is a PHYSICAL description of the child. The parents are probably asked to include ANYTHING they can remember about the child's physical appearance up to and including any scars, scrapes, cuts, or yes, a bug bite. Maybe it was a fresh bite so it was still kinda red so DB included it.
However, I have to ask, again. WHY are people talking about the ear infection? What relevance does it have? And I don't want to hear about oh Lisa probably had a raging ear infection, she cried all night becuase DB was outside, and it probably was turning into pneumonia, or burst ear drums. etc, etc. etc. That is not answering the question I have. For those who think that DB purposely didn't mention the ear infection on the Amber Alert, WHY would she have done this?