IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[otto]

We used to ride our bikes to scary remote woodsy areas too. We had a little creek that we all played in. Pretty remote actually.


I am wondering if maybe the girls rode there, and left their bikes and went into that area to explore, play, hide, hunt for flowers/stones/bugs.

And then they came across some trouble.

That would not explain why the purse was found 20 feet east of where the bikes were found. The fact that the bikes and purse are so close together suggests to me that this is the location where they ran into trouble.

 

[otto]

Folks who know more about this sort of stuff than I do:

Is it in any way possible the girls ARE in the lake and they FBI missed them? I've heard of searches of bodies of water where deceased were not found, even though the folks were known to be drowned.

The lake was searched, dragged, side-sonared and then drained. This was done to completely rule out the possibility that they drowned ... that has now been ruled out and it is an abduction.

 

[Thinkzerz]

Folks who know more about this sort of stuff than I do:

Is it in any way possible the girls ARE in the lake and they FBI missed them? I've heard of searches of bodies of water where deceased were not found, even though the folks were known to be drowned.

But wouldn't at least one body come to float by now?

 

[iamnotagolem]

I just wanted to provide another perspective...

It's been mentioned that the area is "scary" but that is all in the perception of the poster or the person there at the time. I think it really depends on who you are and to what you've been exposed. We hike in remote forest areas, to us they are not scary in the least. To me, gas stations are scary, big cities are scary, dark alleys are scary, there is much more crime in those areas and with so many people and so many unknowns it is harder to protect yourself and your family.

The other thing I wanted to mention is that I think it was ollipop (btw, you are awesome thanks for all the info you've provided) said he's lived there for 5ish years and didn't know maiden lane existed. While he might not have, that doesn't mean thousands of other people don't/didn't. Even people that aren't locals. My example, we moved to this area 8 months ago, I've found when I talk to people who have lived here all their lives they are very unaware of various roads, waterfalls, hiking trails, etc. My best example of this is I was with a friend and we went to someone's house that is about a mile from where I live. I related a story of how we had gone down that particular road all the way until it dropped out over the mountains into another town. She has lived here her entire life and had no idea that the road went all the way through, she had no idea where it came out.

I could go on and on relating experiences of how some people just don't know what exists in their immediate area. A lot of it has to do with lifestyle choices. We are very outdoorsy people, we go off roading, we hike, we explore, but there are many people who do not enjoy those things and are not aware of the existence of various roads, trails, etc.

Hope all of that made sense.

 

[Pensfan]

But wouldn't at least one body come to float by now?

With the lake temperature above 80, the bodies would have floated around day 2 if they had drowned.

 

[SacreBleu]

I just wanted to provide another perspective...

It's been mentioned that the area is "scary" but that is all in the perception of the poster or the person there at the time. I think it really depends on who you are and to what you've been exposed. We hike in remote forest areas, to us they are not scary in the least. To me, gas stations are scary, big cities are scary, dark alleys are scary, there is much more crime in those areas and with so many people and so many unknowns it is harder to protect yourself and your family.

The other thing I wanted to mention is that I think it was ollipop (btw, you are awesome thanks for all the info you've provided) said he's lived there for 5ish years and didn't know maiden lane existed. While he might not have, that doesn't mean thousands of other people don't/didn't. Even people that aren't locals. My example, we moved to this area 8 months ago, I've found when I talk to people who have lived here all their lives they are very unaware of various roads, waterfalls, hiking trails, etc. My best example of this is I was with a friend and we went to someone's house that is about a mile from where I live. I related a story of how we had gone down that particular road all the way until it dropped out over the mountains into another town. She has lived here her entire life and had no idea that the road went all the way through, she had no idea where it came out.

I could go on and on relating experiences of how some people just don't know what exists in their immediate area. A lot of it has to do with lifestyle choices. We are very outdoorsy people, we go off roading, we hike, we explore, but there are many people who do not enjoy those things and are not aware of the existence of various roads, trails, etc.

Hope all of that made sense.

This is not directly entirely to you, but also to some of the other comments above: Ollie has said many times that he does not think the girls were on the lake side of the fence - the terrain is simply not conducive to playing. That, I suspect, is the reason for the fence. He also said that even HE gets creeped out riding through that part of the trail.

 

[Thinkzerz]

With the lake temperature above 80, the bodies would have floated around day 2 if they had drowned.

Yes i know i was meaning that when i was responding to someone post. Thanks

 

[LadyPirate]

There is a hole in the fence on the highway side of the fence, but that can be ruled out because the highway was busy with construction crews and backed up, single lane traffic on the day the children disappeared.

Elizabeth's purse was found on the lakeside side of the fence, 20 feet east of where the bikes were found. One officer said that the bikes were leaning against the fence. Since the bikes were leaning on one side of the fence and the purse was on the other side, we have two possibilities:

1. Elizabeth went over the fence where the bikes were found
2. the perp threw the purse over the fence to prevent Elizabeth from using the phone, and then he or they took the children to where the double fenced area ended.

If we keep it simple, then we have Elizabeth going over the fence with the purse and then dropping it or having it taken from her. This makes the most sense to me, as I highly doubt that a perp would walk down the trail with the girls when someone could come along at any moment. I think the first thing a perp would want to do after gaining control of the girls would be to get them off the trail as fast as possible - over the fence to where the purse was found.

But how did they get over the fence? I was under the impression the fence was 8 ft high. Is this where the gate is and maybe they went through the gate?

 

[iamnotagolem]

This is not directly entirely to you, but also to some of the other comments above: Ollie has said many times that he does not think the girls were on the lake side of the fence - the terrain is simply not conducive to playing. That, I suspect, is the reason for the fence. He also said that even HE gets creeped out riding through that part of the trail.

I understand that, that is why I was trying to provide another perspective. While HE might get creeped out there doesn't mean that everyone would. KWIM?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just trying to offer other opinions.

 

[lishac23]

There is a hole in the fence on the highway side of the fence, but that can be ruled out because the highway was busy with construction crews and backed up, single lane traffic on the day the children disappeared.

Elizabeth's purse was found on the lakeside side of the fence, 20 feet east of where the bikes were found. One officer said that the bikes were leaning against the fence. Since the bikes were leaning on one side of the fence and the purse was on the other side, we have two possibilities:

1. Elizabeth went over the fence where the bikes were found
2. the perp threw the purse over the fence to prevent Elizabeth from using the phone, and then he or they took the children to where the double fenced area ended.

If we keep it simple, then we have Elizabeth going over the fence with the purse and then dropping it or having it taken from her. This makes the most sense to me, as I highly doubt that a perp would walk down the trail with the girls when someone could come along at any moment. I think the first thing a perp would want to do after gaining control of the girls would be to get them off the trail as fast as possible - over the fence to where the purse was found.

Going along with your theory (which I find highly plausible by the way). If they intentionally went over the fence in that area...is there anything of interest to them besides that drainage pipe thing? Allegedly the dogs followed their scent to the lake, which would at least indicate they went over the fence. I can't imagine a perp being able to force two girls (one being a pretty solid girl) over a fence.

 

[Thinkzerz]

I want to know why everything is quite. Even <modsnip> Tammy has been quite.

 

[JaimeInLA]

The last several pages of the previous thread had me thinking more than any other previous conversations we have had. I think I have a much clearer vision of what happened now, after examining Otto's map overlaid with Ollipop's pictures, and debating the location the bikes were found.

I now think the ONLY way the bikes would have been staged, is if the perp lives in a house very close to there, and had to get the bikes away from his house.

But I'm setting that possibility aside, and going with Occam's razor:

12:11-12:15: The girls are circling the block near Lederman's, passing time until they can go down to the lake and meet a friend

12:20-ish: They arrive at the lake. The speed at which they arrive suggests that they were on a mission, not taking a leisurely ride. They park their bikes by the gate, and decide walk through the fence.

My gut keeps sending me back to the request for info on the paddle boat. It is literally the only specific request that has been made of the public in this case. I now think that the FBI must KNOW that the girls did not climb the fence (no trace evidence, scent or fingerprints) and that they did not walk down the thin strip of land between the fence and the lake (no trace evidence, scent, or fingerprints). If their trail ends at the water's edge, then they HAD to have gone into the lake. Hence, the draining of the lake. But we know they aren't in the lake. This means they HAD to have gone onto a boat. TG would have heard a motor boat.

So boarded a paddleboat, which took them over to west side of the wooded area, just off of maiden lane. We also know they were in the wooded area, because their scent was detected there too (per Aunt Tammy). They thought they were going on a fun ride, but as soon as they got into the boat, the perp pulled out a weapon, told them to be silent and tossed the purse. They are just off shore, behind the trees, when TG rides by them and swerves around their bikes.

The kidnapping had to have happened by 1:00, because Lyric knew she was supposed to be back by then.

I always thought the bikes were found on the east end of the double fence section. Now that I see on the map, and using DM's and Abben's statements that they were found BY THE GATE, this has to be what happened. Without getting into WHO did it and WHY, I really believe with 90% certainty, that is WHAT happened.

 

[cindersoot]

This is not directly entirely to you, but also to some of the other comments above: Ollie has said many times that he does not think the girls were on the lake side of the fence - the terrain is simply not conducive to playing. That, I suspect, is the reason for the fence. He also said that even HE gets creeped out riding through that part of the trail.

I got creeped out riding between the fenced area because number one I knew what had happened there and number two, it is a shadowy secluded area. The foliage and time of day would make it darker there at times. It would be very easy for some one to abduct and leave at the end of the path. Very easy.

 

[Wishbone]

I understand that, that is why I was trying to provide another perspective. While HE might get creeped out there doesn't mean that everyone would. KWIM?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just trying to offer other opinions.

Several posters on here have been to the area and they all say the same thing. It creeps them out!! Haven't heard anyone that's been there say anything positive about it.

 

[cluciano63]

I am not feeling at all optimistic about the state of this case, or the fate of the girls...and would be delighted to be proven wrong soon.

 

[cindersoot]

Im not sure where the idea that they went over the fence came from? That seems so highly unlikely to me because the fence is very high. Why is so hard to believe they went around the fence? If they did? Which I doubt. My personal opinion is Elizabeth tryed to run away and dropped her purse on the lake side. They retreived her and went on their way. But..JMO

 

[Pensfan]

The name of the killer is &#8220;likely to be in the investigative file within the first week&#8221; of the murder investigation&#8212;often during the neighborhood canvassing stage&#8212;and that half the time, police had contact with the killer well before they first suspected him of being involved.

One of the more sobering statistics was the fact that in 34.7 percent of these child abduction murders, the police still had no primary suspect a month later.

Child abduction killers prefer to dispose of bodies in rural areas 53 percent of the time. Child abduction killers attempted to carefully conceal the victim&#8217;s body in 55 percent of the cases studied. In a quarter of the cases, police found evidence &#8220;deliberately discarded&#8221; by the killer within one mile of the body.

A good 36 percent of killers deliberately left the body in another jurisdiction (or county) from where the child was abducted, perhaps to hinder the investigation by creating a scenario in which coordination of services between counties would be required.
http://thealphabetkiller.com/portrait-of-a-child-abduction-murder/

 

[Jules71]

They could have dropped their bikes, opened the unlocked gate, walked thru and out onto the jetty, and got in a paddle or row boat. The perp could have been familiar to them. He could have tossed the purse back toward shore and said you can get that when you get back. He could have paddled/rowed just over to the wooded area and got them out and into a vehicle right there on maiden lane or by the pump/lift house. Maybe LE found a paddle boat there and that is why they asked for info. Maybe a neighbors paddleboat was missing and that is why it is now in their front yard. Perhaps LE returned it after doing testing on it. Maybe they got the girls fingerprints off the boat.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[Thinkzerz]

My gut keeps sending me back to the request for info on the paddle boat. It is literally the only specific request that has been made of the public in this case. I now think that the FBI must KNOW that the girls did not climb the fence (no trace evidence, scent or fingerprints) and that they did not walk down the thin strip of land between the fence and the lake (no trace evidence, scent, or fingerprints). If their trail ends at the water's edge, then they HAD to have gone into the lake. Hence, the draining of the lake. But we know they aren't in the lake. This means they HAD to have gone onto a boat. TG would have heard a motor boat.

So boarded a paddleboat, which took them over to west side of the wooded area, just off of maiden lane. We also know they were in the wooded area, because their scent was detected there too (per Aunt Tammy). They thought they were going on a fun ride, but as soon as they got into the boat, the perp pulled out a weapon, told them to be silent and tossed the purse. They are just off shore, behind the trees, when TG rides by them and swerves around their bikes.

The kidnapping had to have happened by 1:00, because Lyric knew she was supposed to be back by then.

I always thought the bikes were found on the east end of the double fence section. Now that I see on the map, and using DM's and Abben's statements that they were found BY THE GATE, this has to be what happened. Without getting into WHO did it and WHY, I really believe with 90% certainty, that is WHAT happened.

I agree with this part but LE never said if the paddle boat person talked to them yet or not. I assume the person has not come forward as you think we would have heard about it.

 

[cindersoot]

They could have dropped their bikes, opened the unlocked gate, walked thru and out onto the jetty, and got in a paddle or row boat. The perp could have been familiar to them. He could have tossed the purse back toward shore and said you can get that when you get back. He could have paddled/rowed just over to the wooded area and got them out and into a vehicle right there on maiden lane or by the pump/lift house. Maybe LE found a paddle boat there and that is why they asked for info. Maybe a neighbors paddleboat was missing and that is why it is now in their front yard. Perhaps LE returned it after doing testing on it. Maybe they got the girls fingerprints off the boat.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

But why go thru the gate when all you have to do is go around the fence.:banghead: