IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[Pensfan]

The last several pages of the previous thread had me thinking more than any other previous conversations we have had. I think I have a much clearer vision of what happened now, after examining Otto's map overlaid with Ollipop's pictures, and debating the location the bikes were found.

I now think the ONLY way the bikes would have been staged, is if the perp lives in a house very close to there, and had to get the bikes away from his house.

But I'm setting that possibility aside, and going with Occam's razor:

12:11-12:15: The girls are circling the block near Lederman's, passing time until they can go down to the lake and meet a friend

12:20-ish: They arrive at the lake. The speed at which they arrive suggests that they were on a mission, not taking a leisurely ride. They park their bikes by the gate, and decide walk through the fence.

My gut keeps sending me back to the request for info on the paddle boat. It is literally the only specific request that has been made of the public in this case. I now think that the FBI must KNOW that the girls did not climb the fence (no trace evidence, scent or fingerprints) and that they did not walk down the thin strip of land between the fence and the lake (no trace evidence, scent, or fingerprints). If their trail ends at the water's edge, then they HAD to have gone into the lake. Hence, the draining of the lake. But we know they aren't in the lake. This means they HAD to have gone onto a boat. TG would have heard a motor boat.

So boarded a paddleboat, which took them over to west side of the wooded area, just off of maiden lane. We also know they were in the wooded area, because their scent was detected there too (per Aunt Tammy). They thought they were going on a fun ride, but as soon as they got into the boat, the perp pulled out a weapon, told them to be silent and tossed the purse. They are just off shore, behind the trees, when TG rides by them and swerves around their bikes.

The kidnapping had to have happened by 1:00, because Lyric knew she was supposed to be back by then.

I always thought the bikes were found on the east end of the double fence section. Now that I see on the map, and using DM's and Abben's statements that they were found BY THE GATE, this has to be what happened. Without getting into WHO did it and WHY, I really believe with 90% certainty, that is WHAT happened.

bbm
The name of the killer is “likely to be in the investigative file within the first week” of the murder investigation—often during the neighborhood canvassing stage—and that half the time, police had contact with the killer well before they first suspected him of being involved.
http://thealphabetkiller.com/portrait-of-a-child-abduction-murder/

 

[Jules71]

Jamie we pretty much just typed the same thing!!!

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[iamnotagolem]

Several posters on here have been to the area and they all say the same thing. It creeps them out!! Haven't heard anyone that's been there say anything positive about it.

I realize that but different things creep different people out. I'm not saying I'm super brave or anything. I get creeped out but typically not by densely wooded areas. Someone dressed up as Santa Creeps the HELLo kitty out of me!

If the girls routinely rode their bikes there, they probably weren't creeped out, weren't afraid probably not concerned for their safety. If TG rides his bike through there every day, he probably isn't scared either.

I certainly wasn't trying to start an argument, I just wanted to provide some perspective that some might not have considered. I find that talking about various possibilities generally gets me thinking about things I hadn't considered before.

 

[craftybatchy]

I recognize this may come across as offensive, but it is in no way intended to cause upset

I too doubt that the girls were playing near the waters edge. Lyric's BMI appears to be higher than average, leading me to believe that she would have had some difficulty climbing an 8 ft fence. It has been implied that Lyric was the leader in the relationship with Elizabeth, an instigator of sorts. It could be that Elizabeth was not so keen on exploring in a 'creepy' area. Perhaps they were arguing, goofing around, when Lyric threw Elizabeth's purse over the fence.
This is, IF the girls were the ones who left the bikes there in the first place ...

Does anyone remember that case in New York ( I think it was NY) where 3 young boys were missing for well over a week and were eventually located in the trunk of a nearby vehicle, deceased ? Given that the initial search undertaken by LE appears to have been sloppy, what are the chances that something of a similar nature was missed in this case ?

 

[Considering]

Im not sure where the idea that they went over the fence came from? That seems so highly unlikely to me because the fence is very high. Why is so hard to believe they went around the fence? If they did? Which I doubt. My personal opinion is Elizabeth tryed to run away and dropped her purse on the lake side. They retreived her and went on their way. But..JMO

I don't rule out the possibility of them climbing the fence. We used to climb over a fence exactly like that one all the time when I was growing up.

 

[Jules71]

But why go thru the gate when all you have to do is go around the fence.:banghead:

To get on the boat. Open the gate and walk right thru. No need to go into the scary woods. The girls thought they were just going for a ride. MOO

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[lishac23]

Im not sure where the idea that they went over the fence came from? That seems so highly unlikely to me because the fence is very high. Why is so hard to believe they went around the fence? If they did? Which I doubt. My personal opinion is Elizabeth tryed to run away and dropped her purse on the lake side. They retreived her and went on their way. But..JMO

I can't speak for anyone else, but the theory is based on where the bikes may have been found and the fact that there is a fence on both sides. According to family, the girls scent went from where the bikes were found, through that wooded area, to the lake shore. There's only one way to get there that way...and that's up and over. An 8-9ft fence is not unclimable IMO. I can't see someone forcing them to climb it, which would give me the impression they went over willing. IFFFF, this is what happened. Its just a possible theory.

 

[elmomom]

I realize that but different things creep different people out. I'm not saying I'm super brave or anything. I get creeped out but typically not by densely wooded areas. Someone dressed up as Santa Creeps the HELLo kitty out of me!

If the girls routinely rode their bikes there, they probably weren't creeped out, weren't afraid probably not concerned for their safety. If TG rides his bike through there every day, he probably isn't scared either.

I certainly wasn't trying to start an argument, I just wanted to provide some perspective that some might not have considered. I find that talking about various possibilities generally gets me thinking about things I hadn't considered before.

I totally get what you are saying. People seeing this spot for the first time now, are going to of course be creeped out because of the possibility if what they think may have happened there. But heavily wooded areas never creep me out. I am a former city dweller and believe me city streets and apartment buildings can creep me out. I live in an isolated wooded area now and feel so much safer. But judging by peeople who come to visiting from the city, some can understand and some get so creeped out by the isolation and darkness... Everyone is different.

Apologizing for any typos this iPad typing really bites...

 

[Wishbone]

I realize that but different things creep different people out. I'm not saying I'm super brave or anything. I get creeped out but typically not by densely wooded areas. Someone dressed up as Santa Creeps the HELLo kitty out of me!

If the girls routinely rode their bikes there, they probably weren't creeped out, weren't afraid probably not concerned for their safety. If TG rides his bike through there every day, he probably isn't scared either.

I certainly wasn't trying to start an argument, I just wanted to provide some perspective that some might not have considered. I find that talking about various possibilities generally gets me thinking about things I hadn't considered before.

You certainly have a right to your opinion and since I've never been there myself I have to rely on what other posters on here have experienced.

 

[Thinkzerz]

Maybe it was a woman that offered the girls a boat ride? If this is what happened. The girls would go with a female unknown before an unknown male. JMO No matter what i believe these girls were watched for a few days.

 

[cindersoot]

I don't rule out the possibility of them climbing the fence. We used to climb over a fence exactly like that one all the time when I was growing up.

But why go thru all that trouble, when all you have to do is go around it? A tall chain link fence is hard to climb.

 

[Jules71]

But why go thru all that trouble, when all you have to do is go around it? A tall chain link fence is hard to climb.

And why go around it when you can just go thru the unlocked gate?

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[Pensfan]

From this article:
http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

The child is usually abducted in a place very close to where he/she was last seen.
The child killer usually takes the abducted child more than 1/4 mile* from where he was abducted, but the distance between the murder site and where the body is later dumped is less than 199 feet in most cases.
There are unknowing witnesses to child abductions in 33% of cases.



Who fits this description?
FBI profile of a child killer
• His average age is 27.8* years old.
• 69.8% are white,* 19.1 black,
• He is usually unmarried and unattached at the time of the murder.
• 17.1% of child killers live alone, and 33.2% live with their parents.
• He usually either lives in the neighborhood where the abduction takes place or frequents that area during his everyday activities.
• 1/2 of child killers are unemployed or work in unskilled or semi-skilled jobs.
• 2/3 of child killers have prior arrests for violent crimes. 1/2 of those violent crimes were committed against children.
• The child killer’s most frequent past crime is sexual in nature, and the primary motive for a child abduction is sexual.
• The use of *advertiser censored* by killers as a trigger to murder has increased since the original study.
• The child is usually abducted in a place very close to where he/she was last seen.
• The child killer usually takes the child more than 1/4 mile* from where he was abducted,
• but the distance between the murder site and where the body is later dumped is less than 199 feet in most cases.
• 23.7 returned to the place they dumped the body
• 9.7 contacted the victim’s family
• 10% of the child killers interjected themselves into the actual murder investigation.
• Police usually have contact with the killer before he becomes a primary suspect.

 

[lishac23]

I recognize this may come across as offensive, but it is in no way intended to cause upset

I too doubt that the girls were playing near the waters edge. Lyric's BMI appears to be higher than average, leading me to believe that she would have had some difficulty climbing an 8 ft fence. It has been implied that Lyric was the leader in the relationship with Elizabeth, an instigator of sorts. It could be that Elizabeth was not so keen on exploring in a 'creepy' area. Perhaps they were arguing, goofing around, when Lyric threw Elizabeth's purse over the fence.
This is, IF the girls were the ones who left the bikes there in the first place ...

Does anyone remember that case in New York ( I think it was NY) where 3 young boys were missing for well over a week and were eventually located in the trunk of a nearby vehicle, deceased ? Given that the initial search undertaken by LE appears to have been sloppy, what are the chances that something of a similar nature was missed in this case ?

BBM...by no means did I find this offensive. But I would have to disagree.
My 12 year old is about the same height and weighs close to 130lbs. He's a solid boy. He runs like a gazelle, can do back flips with no hands, and I have no doubt could scale that fence faster than my nine year old who weights 60lbs in snow gear.

 

[BabyB]

I realize that but different things creep different people out. I'm not saying I'm super brave or anything. I get creeped out but typically not by densely wooded areas. Someone dressed up as Santa Creeps the HELLo kitty out of me!

If the girls routinely rode their bikes there, they probably weren't creeped out, weren't afraid probably not concerned for their safety. If TG rides his bike through there every day, he probably isn't scared either.

Also with remembering that kids don't always have that gut feeling, that alerts them to danger. We used to play in some pretty sketchy woods, and even in the back of a cemetery that was heavily wooded, and there's no way as an adult I would ever go hiking near there now even with someone else.

I was doing some volunteer work cleaning litter off the road, and had to remind a young girl that was with us, not to go to far into the treeline. People can make really unexpected places their shelter sometimes.

 

[cindersoot]

I can't speak for anyone else, but the theory is based on where the bikes may have been found and the fact that there is a fence on both sides. According to family, the girls scent went from where the bikes were found, through that wooded area, to the lake shore. There's only one way to get there that way...and that's up and over. An 8-9ft fence is not unclimable IMO. I can't see someone forcing them to climb it, which would give me the impression they went over willing. IFFFF, this is what happened. Its just a possible theory.

I give up. One more time, all they had to do is go AROUND the fence to the lake side. The double fence is only about 500 yrds long.

 

[hollyblue]

This is just the thorn in my side for this case but:


The bikes were found in the trail by the gate leading to a rock jetty and water outlet on the lake.

The gate wasn’t locked at the time, Abben said.

So....there would be no reason for anyone to throw the girls over the fence or the bikes; nor for the girls to climb over.

I feel better now.........thanks.

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_87408126-d217-11e1-aec0-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[JaimeInLA]

But why go thru the gate when all you have to do is go around the fence.:banghead:

Look at the fence in Otto's pictures. Notice how on the west side, it curves toward the water, and there are a LOT of trees around it. It would be WAY easier to just go through the unlocked gate, where the bikes were found. Why fight through trees and brush when you can just walk through a gate?

 

[nervous_nellie]

i wonder if the girls had been there before with a larger group of friends and thought they would find them there?

 

[Pensfan]

Who fits the post-offense behavior description?

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf