Malaysia airlines plane may have crashed 239 people on board #24

[SouthAussie]

Now that I can believe. Thanks.

Yes, we closely watch the northern borders due to asylum-seeker boats, and point radar in that direction. But we have a LOT of radar facing north .. and many do not believe that all of the Western Australian resources would also be pointed that way. (The asylum-seeker boats come from Indonesia to our northern shores, not west. West is too far and many of the boats capsize - we have rescued many people from capsized boats.)

Many Aussies do not believe that we would be spending the money that we are spending on this search without our own corroboration.

It is also a big ask for us to believe that we would leave our whole large western border unmonitored because we were solely focused on watching out for asylum-seeker boats to the north.

 

[SouthAussie]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight-370.html

Missing Malaysian Jet’s Crew Was Probably Unresponsive, Officials Say

There is no consensus among investigators, even within the Australian government, on the hypoxia or unresponsive-crew theory.

Other officials, who insisted on anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the issue with Malaysia and China — most of the flight’s passengers were Chinese — said some investigators still leaned toward the possibility that one of the pilots deliberately flew the plane to the southern Indian Ocean in a suicide mission that also killed everyone else on the plane.

Today's official ATSB report says ...

"Given these observations, the final stages of the unresponsive crew/ hypoxia event type appeared to best fit the available evidence for the final period of MH370’s flight when it was heading in a generally southerly direction:

- loss of radio communications
- long period without any en route manoeuvring of the aircraft
- a steadily maintained cruise altitude
- fuel exhaustion and descent

This suggested that, for MH370, it was possible that after a long period of flight under autopilot control, fuel exhaustion would occur followed by a loss of control without any control inputs.

Note: This suggestion is made for the sole purpose of assisting to define a search area.
The determination of the actual factors involved in the loss of MH370 are the responsibility of the accident investigation authority and not the SSWG. "

 

[Intermezzo]

Today's official ATSB report says ...

"Given these observations, the final stages of the unresponsive crew/ hypoxia event type appeared to best fit the available evidence for the final period of MH370’s flight when it was heading in a generally southerly direction:

- loss of radio communications
- long period without any en route manoeuvring of the aircraft
- a steadily maintained cruise altitude
- fuel exhaustion and descent

This suggested that, for MH370, it was possible that after a long period of flight under autopilot control, fuel exhaustion would occur followed by a loss of control without any control inputs.

Note: This suggestion is made for the sole purpose of assisting to define a search area.
The determination of the actual factors involved in the loss of MH370 are the responsibility of the accident investigation authority and not the SSWG. "

Thank You SouthAussie
I appreciate it
I just began to read the report, going back and forth between it and reading a professional pilots forum. an interesting and educational read

 

[geevee]

I can't believe the 'auto-pilot into the Indian ocean' theory being deployed now, for that to be true, wouldn't someone have had to change the plane's direction from it's original flight path, make those turns, get into a southward direction and then switch on the auto-pilot with a different flight path programmed into it...all the while having an 'unresponsive crew'? Whether they dreamed this up for 'search area purposes' or what, it makes no sense whatsoever. I call foul. And baloney.

 

[Intermezzo]

I can't believe the 'auto-pilot into the Indian ocean' theory being deployed now, for that to be true, wouldn't someone have had to change the plane's direction from it's original flight path, make those turns, get into a southward direction and then switch on the auto-pilot with a different flight path programmed into it...all the while having an 'unresponsive crew'? Whether they dreamed this up for 'search area purposes' or what, it makes no sense whatsoever. I call foul. And baloney.

This is how is understand it after reading the Australian report and other articles and video

They came up the assumption because it best fit the evidence they had as they were defining the search zone

Someone turned the auto pilot ON, so they believe the plane was being flown by someone until the final turn southward toward the Indian Ocean

The assumption, based on the evidence, was that the crew was 'unresponsive' from that point on during the final stage of the flight until it crashed

Malaysia, who is the investigating authority, has not come out and said this is what happened..this assumption was for defining and explaining the new search zone.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight-370.html?_r=0

At a news conference here Thursday, Martin Dolan, the chief commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, said someone on the plane had put it on autopilot, but he declined to speculate as to who might have done so and why. “If the autopilot is operational, it’s because it has been switched on,” Mr. Dolan said.

Hypoxia occurs when a plane loses air pressure and the pilots, lacking adequate oxygen, become confused and incapable of performing even basic manual tasks.

Pilots are trained to put on oxygen masks immediately if an aircraft suffers depressurization; their masks have an hour’s air supply, compared with only a few minutes for the passengers.

The plane, which left Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, bound for Beijing with 239 people aboard, made its turn south toward the Indian Ocean about an hour after it stopped responding to air traffic controllers.

 

[Intermezzo]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/26/world/asia/australia-missing-malaysian-plane/

With VIDEO

Australia: MH370 likely on autopilot with unresponsive crew in flight's final stage

"It is highly, highly likely that the aircraft was on autopilot, otherwise it could not have followed the orderly path that has been identified through the satellite sightings," Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss told reporters in Canberra.

Australian authorities suggested that Flight 370's crew may have been in an "unresponsive" state, possibly caused by a lack of oxygen.

But it cautioned that the assumption was "made for the purposes of defining a search area and there is no suggestion that the investigation authority will make similar assumptions."

The Australian officials declined to talk about the causes behind Flight 370's errant flight path, saying those are questions for the Malaysian authorities in charge of the overall investigation. And they said they weren't sure exactly when the autopilot had been turned on.

 

[Amee]

June 27 8am
INVESTIGATORS believe someone in the cockpit of MH370 turned on the plane’s autopilot before it disappeared, as Australian search chiefs announced a new phase in the hunt for the missing airliner.

Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss said it was “highly, highly likely” the missing


Malaysian Airlines flight was on autopilot when it crashed into the southern Indian Ocean on March 8, becoming the “greatest aviation mystery in global history”.

The revelation that autopilot was activated raises further suspicion the plane’s disappearance was a mass atrocity committed by either the captain or copilot of the plane.

And investigators had yet another revelation, telling reporters it is believed the missing jet likely plunged into the ocean further south than the current search area.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...-begin-in-august/story-fniztvng-1226967783002

 

[ElleElle]

My opinions only, no facts here:

The First Officer's cell phone supposedly did a handshake with a mainland tower, about 30 minutes after the plane supposedly turned west. I do not consider this an official report, and I have previous posts that explain why this event may not have occurred.

To save you time searching for my earlier posts, here is the conundrum. If the First Officer's phone handshaked with a tower, every other phone device on the plane that was not turned off would probably have handshaked with the tower too. It is almost impossible to believe that only one device on the plane was turned on (or left on by accident) at that point in time.

So, maybe the handshake was a full connection and a call was made and completed.

 

[ElleElle]

You missed the point ... this plane was ONLY 2 km away from the Australian coast
... & they didn't find it for 70 years !
NOW they are looking for a plane that MAYBE went down 2000 km away from the Australian coast.
Doesn't matter WHY the plane ended up in the ocean.
Either way it is still a search for a plane on the ocean sea bed.

Right, but 370 is way more sophisticated with titanium and different metals.
It should be easier to find, IMO. Unless it shattered into a billion pieces.

 

[ElleElle]

Wouldn't autopilot constitute control inputs? If an engine flames out, I would assume that the AP would correct for the yaw and the plane would straighten but burn fuel at an increasing rate.

I can't believe the 'auto-pilot into the Indian ocean' theory being deployed now, for that to be true, wouldn't someone have had to change the plane's direction from it's original flight path, make those turns, get into a southward direction and then switch on the auto-pilot with a different flight path programmed into it...all the while having an 'unresponsive crew'? Whether they dreamed this up for 'search area purposes' or what, it makes no sense whatsoever. I call foul. And baloney.

I second that. This theory was hashed out months ago with WSers.

However, this theory is on my top 5 list of what happened to 370.
:seeya:

 

[2rose]

Right, but 370 is way more sophisticated with titanium and different metals.
It should be easier to find, IMO. Unless it shattered into a billion pieces.

Is Australia searching for different metals ?
I thought that was only the Georesonance company who proposed the
new metal theory when they said they found a plane in the Bay of Bengal ?
That company is not part of the offical search team.

By the way, my memory was faulty about the pilots.
The story I was thinking about was what came to me later
... that they had not asked to fly together.

 

[2rose]

I was also not aware that the satellite base station tried to call the plane twice during the time it was only receiving hourly pings.

That was in the Inmarsat data release on May 27 & I saw the scientists on the Duncan Steel website discussing it.

 

[christee]

There is a post at Cruisers Forum that includes a post copied from this forum. I think that's a WS :nono:

Post #545
http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f108/i-think-i-saw-mh370-127132-37.html#post1572893

 

[Elainera]

Is Australia searching for different metals ?
I thought that was only the Georesonance company who proposed the
new metal theory when they said they found a plane in the Bay of Bengal ?
That company is not part of the offical search team.

By the way, my memory was faulty about the pilots.
The story I was thinking about was what came to me later
... that they had not asked to fly together.

Meant to ask: what happened to the Bay of Bengal 'find' ? I dropped out of the news as fast as it was reported. I must have missed what they did or didn't find.

 

[Mr. Noatak]

So, maybe the handshake was a full connection and a call was made and completed.

My opinions only, no facts here:

From the sum of the reports about this purported incident with the First Officer's cell phone, I interpret that no actual voice call is claimed. Of course, regarding the lack of handshakes with all other devices on the plane, any activity at all by the First Officer's phone only, makes no logical sense. My gut tells me this incident did not occur, OR there are other details that we are not yet privy to.

If I could somehow sensibly explain away the existence of the Inmarsat satellite pings, I would do it in a moment, and conclude that everyone and every device and all operating systems on MH 370 were silenced at the same time (around 1:30 AM local). I like this theory the best. Secondly, I would favor a westward track to the Maldives area. Thirdly, I would choose the currently-popular "incredible journey" to the southern Indian Ocean (I cannot ignore the evidence for this possibility).

But let's move way down my theory list to a provocative scenario. It would be a good plot for a novel. This theory allows for the Inmarsat pings, but requires that their interpretation is in error. This theory also allows for the military radar detection of MH 370 after it crossed the Malaysian Peninsula into the Malacca Strait. This theory explains the lack of debris at sea. This theory neither claims nor disclaims the cell-tower handshake with the First Officer's phone, only there may have been other device handshakes that were missed or not officially reported. With this theory the plane was hijacked, turned west across the Malaysian Peninsula into the Malacca Strait. It then fairly soon turned south-southwest and made a bee-line for one of the NNW Regencies of Aceh Special Territory of Indonesia, including islands off the NW tip. The electronic systems were left on after landing and the Inmarsat satellite could continue to ping it. BUT, the plane was on the ground and not flying for most of these hours. The main point I want you to take away from this dubious scenario is that a plane parked on the ground with electrical systems active could handshake with the Inmarsat satellite.

 

[SouthAussie]

That was in the Inmarsat data release on May 27 & I saw the scientists on the Duncan Steel website discussing it.

Did they say what the phone calls would have been? Was it an IFE modem trying to connect or something?


(Sorry, not trying to be lazy .. but not able to locate the convo on the website.)

 

[2rose]

Meant to ask: what happened to the Bay of Bengal 'find' ? I dropped out of the news as fast as it was reported. I must have missed what they did or didn't find.

http://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/2014...ngal-again-for-mh370-after-georesonance-claim

After the claims by GeoResonance, the Bangladesh Navy resumed search operation with 2 frigates & 2 maritime aircrafts. But after a 12-day-long search, they returned empty handed. This was back in early May.

The thing I find strange about this is that GeoResonance had a photo of what was supposed to be a plane underwater. So I am curious why a statement wasn't made either identifying which plane it actually was OR a statement saying that it was NOT a plane at all, but a rock formation or illusion or whatever ...

GeoResonance seemed so sure it was a plane & I thought they said they were going to follow through on it even if the Australian search team didn't ... but I have not read any followup from them. In fact, the words MH370 & Malaysia do not appear anywhere on their website ???

 

[2rose]

Did they say what the phone calls would have been? Was it an IFE modem trying to connect or something?
(Sorry, not trying to be lazy .. but not able to locate the convo on the website.)

Well the scientists discuss it over a string of emails &
all I remember right now is that it was 2 unanswered calls.
However I can tell you how to find something on a specific site.
If you go to a search engine "advanced page" for example ...

http://www.google.com/advanced_search?hl=en&authuser=0
http://search.yahoo.com/search/options?fr=fp-top&p=

where it says "site or domain" enter the "main address" which in this case is ...
www.duncansteel.com

Then you can go up to the search box & enter the words you want to find anywhere on ONLY that site.
If you enter "ground station" you might get too many possibilities, so try something less common
like your "IFE modem". If it was me I would try the the 2 unanswered times "18:39" or "23:13".
Hope that helps

 

[marlywings]

Long overdue for a new thread. I'll close this one shortly...

Please move on over to thread #25...

[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=247961"]Malaysia airlines plane may have crashed 239 people on board #25 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community[/ame]