Motive...or not

[sreshowtime]

Dysfunction in most every adult closely connected with Hailey, very true HB..............

Boy you cans say that again. I have to say I don't trust a one of them. Every which way you turn there is a 'could a' ....of possible guilt or associated to guilt in some manner. It is like a never ending story with a tons of scenarios.
I feel like whatever happened, happened Monday afternoon/night....but by whom is the 64 million $ question. Who surrounding her had the most to 'gain' by her disappearance.....or was it a random act? Is there even a motive?
:banghead:

Merely thinking- in regard to SA and his 'depravity'....do you think he would really act on his possible inner desires with the child of the woman he is shacked up with? Wouldn't it be less incriminating to go after a stranger?? If he was wanting to kill someone? Putting more distance between himself and the victim?

Could someone connected to Clint's family have helped to disappear Hailey? Would have been so easy to get her in that car headed to Oklahoma, ya know, and then on to where ever.......wishful thinking

Grrr , where is Hailey.

 

[Tugela]

Dysfunction in most every adult closely connected with Hailey, very true HB.

Clint was far from a perfect Father. Would he put his own welfare before Hailey's well being? I would say he did, yes. But I would be surprised if he had anything to do with her disappearance.

Hailey spent the night with Clint on the 25th. It is very reasonable to think Clint used Hailey's (BD) phone to call Connie on the morning of the 26th.

Except that she is talking about the following day, not the 26th. If HD had gone over there that morning no one is saying so. And if she did, then there is no chance that SA did anything to her the evening before, or that morning (his location is constrained by the pings). That leaves a window of about 45 minutes to do the deed and get rid of all evidence in the afternoon.

 

[Knox]

I don't think CD would have done anything to harm HD, ( I hope my gut is right) but I feel he could be involved in her disappearance...for some strange reason. This group wouldn't do anything legally if they could get away with it "under the radar", imo. It's cheaper in many respects....and not questioned. If he did send her away...who to? Who would take on the financial responsibility...and the legal ramifications? Would he use the uncle and aunt from OK for the transportation? I'm not jumping into this theory...just sticking my toe in for probabilities. I just don't trust CD as much as you do Knox and can't discount him any longer.

I've even contemplated HD taking off on her own or in hiding somewhere with someone she trusted?; thinking CD's gf, Nx? may have seen HD as a threat and/or liability to her new relationship/family with CD. (Melissa Huckabee) Maybe even financially. HD wanted to be with her father...and N knew that. If she didn't want HD there, she could have fed her a litany of lies and negativity to make her feel it just wasn't going to happen. ie: "Your father would be embarrassed for you to know." bs. If Hailey was so unhappy and distressed with being around SA...she may have decided to just leave..even for good. (I hated typing that) But, after seeing the hatred her mother spews (and the apple doesn't fall far from the tree), I wouldn't put her past it one bit. They are both "ugly", imo, and I think the only reason CD is around is PT's $.

As grammie use to say...They can't chop wood! The axe was left out and became rusted and dull, but it was the rain's fault. JMO

I like your Grammie's saying HB, it applies well

I guess we are just looking at Hailey's disappearance very differently. In my heart of heart's I don't think Hailey was secreted away and is alive today. I don't believe she ran away either. It would be wonderful to be wrong though.

 

[sreshowtime]

I know Know- It would be wonderful...look at Elizabeth Smart, Jacie, and who was the boy found that was living with his abductor for a number of years? I guess until someone IS found there is always HOPE.

 

[Tugela]

One more thing, if her leaving was a planned thing, it is possible that whoever she left with gave her another cell phone to coordinate things. That would explain the neighbor seeing her speaking on a cell phone, but there being no record of that. It would also explain why she left with nothing. When SA arrived home unexpectedly, she had to leave ASAP and couldn't take anything with her, because that would be too suspicious and he would ask why.

 

[sreshowtime]

Hmm Tugela- that is an interesting thought....considering there WAS a family member heading to OK.........and didn't someone go to the beach in Texas, like Galveston?
hmm and her room was kind a a mess in the earliest pics, whether from LE picking thru it, or whomever, or Hailey digging for stuff...or just a teenage girl messy room.

Certainly food for thought. Thanks,
and thank you all for continuing to think about Hailey.

 

[Tugela]

But what would be the motivation for leaving like that? I think the most likely one would be pregnancy where she and/or the person she went with did not want everyone to know about. At 13 it is not like she could just go and get an abortion, there would be questions and LE would come looking for the father. So it would have to be kept quite, even to the point of not telling BD about it. Alternatively, the people she left with may have placed moral blame on BD for the situation. Either way I think BD is in the dark about it all.

That scenario would also explain a few loose ends regarding SA's LE interview and polygraph. While he might not know exactly what happened, he probably has strong suspicions. And hence the suggestion of promiscuity and the polygraph result suggesting they should look for her in the next town.

 

[sreshowtime]

Well it seems like Clint was trying to get her at some point ( if you can believe anything that has been said in all this) but something about , what was it...the school said she was doing good...something- basically 'don't rock the boat'. And then her telling the aunt? Grandma? that SA was creepy.... but would Dad's side of family be able to pull that off.
I know, just grasping at straws hoping beyond hope she is alive somewhere

In spite of everything , I still think something may have happened to Hailey Sunday night, possibly stashed somewhere in the wee hours, and then taken and 'hidden' during the hours after SA 'quit' work and arrived back in Ccty. AND IMHO, I don't think he is the only one that knows what happened...maybe the only one that knows specifically where she is.

 

[hollyblue]

A local reported seeing Shawn at Billie's house( in C-City) Friday afternoon on the front porch and a red camaro sitting under the carport ! Assuming billie was here on the weekend along with Shawn !

I wonder if this has anything to do with DD and school starting up again?
So much for the trespassing restriction.

 

[TxLady2]

But what would be the motivation for leaving like that? I think the most likely one would be pregnancy where she and/or the person she went with did not want everyone to know about. At 13 it is not like she could just go and get an abortion, there would be questions and LE would come looking for the father. So it would have to be kept quite, even to the point of not telling BD about it. Alternatively, the people she left with may have placed moral blame on BD for the situation. Either way I think BD is in the dark about it all.

That scenario would also explain a few loose ends regarding SA's LE interview and polygraph. While he might not know exactly what happened, he probably has strong suspicions. And hence the suggestion of promiscuity and the polygraph result suggesting they should look for her in the next town.

If she tried to get an abortion, LE's first priority would be trying to contact her parents, rather than looking for the father, and if she didn't want to tell them who it was, or said she didn't know who the father was, there wouldn't be much they could do about it anyway. Do these clinics have to have both parents' consent to perform an abortion? Or will some of them do it anyway? I don't know how that works these days.

I'm not set on one theory, but I think if there was evidence that connected Shawn or Billie to her disappearance, they would have been arrested by now. I know it's been ample time for them to have gone over all those tapes, and believe me, if Hailey was in any of them, Shawn and possibly Billie would be behind bars right now. I don't know what happened to her, but it just as easily could have been a predator or even someone she knew who saw her walking and picked her up. It can happen in the blink of an eye, in a matter of seconds with no witness, in broad daylight.

I really hope LE hasn't had tunnel vision and are not focusing entirely on the two of them and ignoring other possibilities. That happens in some cases, where all the signs point to one person, yet it turns out that LE has overlooked other clues pointing away from them because they didn't fit the pattern. Yes, Shawn's actions drew suspicions, but it could be he is innocent of harming Hailey and the other stuff is just not connected. IDK, but if he has been the main suspect for all these months, and no arrest, WTH are LE doing? Nothing, apparently.

 

[SmoothOperator]

In following these exact in nature type cases many who've done so for any length of time truly know just how much of your most basic intuitions and flat-out gut instincts are a very relevant and accurate factor in a case.. Anyone and everyone has this most basic of abilities..if only able to listen to what your instincts are alerting/alarming you to..who or what that is concerning and how is that specific detail or specific person/individual connected in any way to the crime or suspected crime due to a disappearance..

You cannot over think it, attempt to amplify it's particular "natural" level, or make the error of putting the entire weight of a case or subject based on instinct/intuition, alone.. I am in no way speaking about any "special" senses, abilities, or God given talents such as seers, psychics, clairvoyants, etc..Nooo..nothing even remotely the same IMO those who have those God given abilities are in an entire league of their own.. I am just talking what I, too see as a God given mechanism that IMO is available us all and all of us capable of sharpening and honing in that mechanism and skill..

When used and gauged correctly I have found it to be more than a "HIGH" rate of accurate success.. but most importantly is how it is interpreted and ensure it is not over weighted in any detail of any case..

Sorry If I'm coming off as "preachy" or in some way I am "gonna teach you something" with a ridiculous, droning-on lecture..lol.. That is not my intention at all but much rather just wanting to state what I have personally found[and have come to learn that many others as well]to be a very relevant part of following along with a case from the sidelines and can be any extremely accurate "tool" , skill, or mechanism when used in appropriate moderation and truly are in tune with one's self and our own, unique instincts and intuitions that we all have readily available to us..

Of course, used alone IMO could and likely in most instances would be highly INaccurate..that's why IMO not only is it key to be able to be in fine tune with one's own unique instincts/intuitions, but to properly distribute the weight of it's significance with the other key importances such as the ALWAYS, MOST IMPORTANT THE COLD, HARD "FACTS" OF THE CASE.. Of course with great emphasis on the actual word FACTS..Meaning true facts..not speculation, opinion, or rumors.. Which this key element to all cases you most often will find, IMO 99.9% of the time, to be actually very little and usually few and far between.. But none the less and no matter how few they are..they are always the MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF WEIGHT SHOULD BE GIVEN.. So, with the perfectly proportioned and measured out precisely ingredients of Cold, hard facts combined with being in tune and able to listen to one's own, unique instincts and intuitions.. you proceed to the final steps as follows:

Of course, then adding in a dash of drawing logical conclusions[not far fetched "straw men" wild, off the chart conclusions..lol].. Mixed in with a couple heaping Tablespoons of common sense.. With all of these aspects of a case you continue to mix on medium speed until perfectly blended...and..voila... You truly do have a damn good recipe that yields a high percentage of accurate results..

I know.. I know.. really corny..and who really cares??..lol..maybe no one.. or may be even just one person.. a person who already can feel and sense their instincts perking up, setting off warning bells, or maybe even at times a full fledged 5 alarm fire with all the bells and whistles.. but have been told repeatedly by naysayers that "don't let your heart lead you".. don't base any of your views on an instinct, etc, etc..and on down the lines with the thousands of other ways we're told by many to blatantly and fully disregard and ignore those "feelings"..they're not what solves a case, nor do they even have a place at all when unfolding a case, disappearance, or murder...

And imo that could not be more wrong, incorrect, and misleading.. It was those unique instincts of my own that little by teensy, tiny little that I slowly, ever so cautiously began to in tiny modicums of amounts began to incorporate into my personally following a case from the sidelines.. and with it taking on a natural course of its own it tempered and evened itself out in those appropriate amounts.. Of course varying from case to case..suspect to suspect..or from victim to victim..

Pretty much on a case by case basis and there being no handbook, rulebook, or easily googled webpage for reference or guidance on how to use these skills, or distribute the appropriate weight case by case..and detail by detail.. In time and with the kindness and willingness of some of those with those Super-Dooper God given talents of truly being gifted in ways my little my mind cannot even comprehend and that I have the utmost respect for their abilities.. a few offered me a few nudges here or there of guidance, tips, and sometimes just reminders of keep it "chill"..as in don't go on overboard with the instinct/intuition aspect..zooming in and purely focusing on it..as I said that will often lead to an opposite effect of a high fail rate, INaccuracy as well as a helluva lot of frustration and wasted time..

I humbly apologize for my veering off topic and my intention is not to derail this thread but instead for all of us who do become so frustrated and at times even feeling lack of determination due to there being so little recent movement in Hailey's case.. That we are ALL able to use ALL of our brain power and abilities to brain storm:idea: TOGETHER and to help or aid in any way that we can to bring closure and resolution to this precious, young girl's most likely IMO death and those many who love her and had her stripped from their lives much, much too soon...

All in ALL these are nothing more than my very own personal opinions and ZERO more..

raying: My continued prayers for Justice and Hope for Hailey as well as the many who love her.. raying:

 

[hollyblue]

If she tried to get an abortion, LE's first priority would be trying to contact her parents, rather than looking for the father, and if she didn't want to tell them who it was, or said she didn't know who the father was, there wouldn't be much they could do about it anyway. Do these clinics have to have both parents' consent to perform an abortion? Or will some of them do it anyway? I don't know how that works these days.

I'm not set on one theory, but I think if there was evidence that connected Shawn or Billie to her disappearance, they would have been arrested by now. I know it's been ample time for them to have gone over all those tapes, and believe me, if Hailey was in any of them, Shawn and possibly Billie would be behind bars right now. I don't know what happened to her, but it just as easily could have been a predator or even someone she knew who saw her walking and picked her up. It can happen in the blink of an eye, in a matter of seconds with no witness, in broad daylight.

I really hope LE hasn't had tunnel vision and are not focusing entirely on the two of them and ignoring other possibilities. That happens in some cases, where all the signs point to one person, yet it turns out that LE has overlooked other clues pointing away from them because they didn't fit the pattern. Yes, Shawn's actions drew suspicions, but it could be he is innocent of harming Hailey and the other stuff is just not connected. IDK, but if he has been the main suspect for all these months, and no arrest, WTH are LE doing? Nothing, apparently.

IDK, what are the chances of her being grabbed by a perp while crossing a field? Not saying it couldn't happen, but stats say it's someone within the circle of family or acquaintances. The dynamics of the family/friends is ripe for her abduction or running away. I think PT should be put under the microscope and take a poly. She talks too much. CJ thought it could have been her because she had made threats when her bf...(CD's brother) got into trouble because of something HD told BD. Plus the fact that CJ stated it was known that PT was hanging around BD/SA's house again prior to her going missing. Knowing how PT and her daughter think and their prior actions.....I wouldn't discount them. Has PT ever been questioned by LE regarding HD's disappearance? Knowing PT's past romantic endeavors and if she had vengeance for BD/HD maybe she was entertaining the idea of SA...or already was? ****thought*** I wonder if SA had taken off from work before and BD didn't know? Other women or Hailey.

 

[hollyblue]

Smooth, so what are your instincts/feelings on HD's case?

I know my brain tells me S Koecher is alive and well. Yet, when I had been focusing on another case, I had a dream of SK out of the blue that he had met with foul play...because he had some kind of knowledge. It was very real...so at this point...... I'm believing he is alive and well and has knowledge he doesn't want to share. lol It could be knowledge of something he felt was nefarious...or it truly was...or it could be something as simple as his sexual preference and not wanting to come "out".

My experience/belief in dreams is my own and know others may feel it's bunk...which is ok and I totally understand their skepticism; but, to me most dreams are just the minds way of filing/sorting thoughts out unconsciously. Others are too vivid and like a slap up side the head and should be paid attention to. Especially when family is involved.

I view my instincts as fear related to the old part of the brain still functioning from my ancestors thousands of years ago. My gut telling me to question CD is basically the final decision and resolve after using knowledge gained from various sources...and prolly an analogy I shouldn't have used. IMO, psychics are given a gift to use (very, very rare, imo) while all of us are given the "touch" of the gift at times...that we can't truly explain. A little miracle or blessing. Maybe it's someone letting us know they are in control? And yes, I do believe we are capable of tapping into that grace. JMO

 

[yllek]

8 months ago today, Hailey was last seen by her big brother.

Where is Hailey Darlene Dunn?