So here's the thing about MO vs. signature. FBI profiling refers to signature when it comes to LISK picking women who are all the same size, the same look, the same profession, and then whatever the killer gets out of these murders, whatever drive exists to hurt these women. This is his signature. It has been said that he "choked" the Gilgo 4 victims, so this would be part of his signature. But how he disposes of bodies may be done out of convenience and isn't tied to the signature. So the MO can change rapidly, as in the case of Zodiac switching from shooting to stabbing and back to shooting (because his signature was harassing the media and police and creating panic, that's what he got off on).
So for LISK, the ritual and signature are who he is picking, what he does to them when they're captured, and any gratification he gets after the fact, such as the documented contact with Barthélemy's sister (which ended after news media revealed it was occurring). But the disposal wouldn't necessarily be part of it. There's no staging or posing so there's no ritualistic connection, as in the way Bittrolff apparently posed his victims. Which suggests Bittrolff is not connected to the Gilgo 4 or the dismembered bodies.
So if we believe all of the Gilgo/Manorville bodies are the same killer, we have two different MOs in play: dismembering (early victims only, all nude, no clothing, some jewelry included with Peaches and Baby Doe) and intact in burlap with Gilgo 4 (nude, no clothing, no jewelry). What unites them is they were all placed in the same areas, all identified victims were all known Craigslist workers, and in the case of VM and JT and the Gilgo victims, their similar ages and appearance are part of the signature. (Peaches, uniquely, does not match, which makes you wonder if Peaches could have been a witness rather than a target. The fact that a child was involved lends itself to that theory. Asian Doe is also uniquely disconnected from the signature and was found wearing clothing with blunt force trauma to the face. I am comfortable putting Asian Doe aside and not including them in the official list of LISK victims for now.)
For those thinking there are two separate killers, consider this: If all the dismembered victims plus Baby Doe (1996-2003) were a separate killer not linked to Gilgo 4 (2007-2010), then that, to me, would indicate their remains were placed by the dismemberment killer in the same location as the Gilgo 4 after the Gilgo 4 were discovered in December 2010. Because all of the dismembered remains around Gilgo were not found until April 2011, a few months later. So either it's the same killer for all, another killer who saw the news about the 2010 remains and moved remains to the same location to confuse police, or there were two killers who managed to pick the same 3-mile stretch of remote beach highway to dispose of bodies in all of Long Island. (The idea that two separate unlinked killers picked the same remote stretch of beach is just impossible to me. And I just can't imagine a killer would think, "I am going to move old remains nobody knows about to this location that police have been watching closely.") **I admit it's possible at least two killers know each other and are sharing the same dump site, but you would expect overlapping MOs at the same time, not separate MOs during completely different periods of time. My only allowance there is some kind of generational thing, like a weird father-son team. But again. That's a big leap in guessing.**
This is why I believe Peaches, Baby Doe, Jane Doe 7, VM, and JT were all killed by the same person who killed the Gilgo 4. My assumption is that the MO changed because it had to. Perhaps he no longer had access to a private space to dismember victims? Perhaps he discovered dismembering created too much evidence or was too hard to clean up? Or what if he knew after a while that remains he had placed at Gilgo Beach were not getting discovered as quickly as remains elsewhere, so he decided that area was remote enough to dispose of a whole victim? One body and one dump would be safer than finding places to leave multiple body parts. As FBI profilers learned from the criminals they spoke to, criminals learn to perfect what they do.
I don't think it's coincidence that the victims went missing in the summer months. Even police initially suspected that Valerie Mack's Manorville remains had been dumped in September of 2000. You could infer that the killer takes the same vacation time from work each year, or maybe their job is seasonal in some way and they only spend time in this area in the summer months. Could he be a teacher? A number of things could explain the summer pattern, but there is clear evidence among Gilgo 4 of ritualistic, anniversary-like killing. If anniversary killing was something they were trying to achieve, it makes you wonder if there are any missing sex workers from summer of 2008? That's a gap year in terms of victims. You might also ask the same question of 2004, 2005, and 2006.
Dismemberment suggests he had a private location or space in the mid-90s to 2003 where he would not be disturbed. There's also reason to suggest he was unattached romantically at the time, because anyone live-in would be a threat to discovery. From the change in MO, you could infer that the killer's life circumstances changed between 2003 and 2007. Perhaps he moved in with someone, had a child with someone, changed homes, or no longer had private access to a separate space/residence. This new MO of using Gilgo Beach as a single dump site was maintained over a period of three years: Brainard-Barnes went missing July 9, 2007; Barthélemy went missing July 10, 2009 (notice this is a two-year anniversary, which suggests ritual, reliving a previous crime, thus signature); Megan Waterman missing June 6, 2010 (one month and a few days shy of another anniversary); and Amber Costello went missing just a few months later on September 2, 2010.
The fact that he still hasn't been caught begs the question: What has he been doing since summer 2010? Presumably, the murders stopped because his primary dump site was discovered. Did he stop altogether out of fear of media and police attention or did he simply change his dump site again? Did he move? Has he been caught for a different crime? As of 2020, Peaches' skull has not been found. Jane Doe 7's skull and legs are all that have been recovered of her. This leads me to suspect he has another dump site that hasn't been found, or Hempstead Lake State Park and Fire Island haven't been searched well enough. I would want to know more about any sex workers gone missing between summer 2011 and now, where they have been found, and in what condition.
Now that it's 2020, it's been 13 years of getting away with his crimes after they were discovered. I would be concerned that a killer like this would be emboldened by not getting caught rather than anxious. Which leads me to believe he has killed since 2010 and we just don't know it yet.
