CO CO - Kelsey Berreth, 29, Woodland Park, Teller County, 22 Nov 2018 - #5

[Deleted member 155000]

It all depends on the way they interpreted a ping I think. Cellular tower ping or IP ping. An IP would ping off of a server.

Agreed.

 

[The Night Watchman]

Keep in mind the phone ping was in Idaho where her mothers lives, and on the way to relatives in Washington.

Not Nevada, Arizona, or Iowa. It’s specific location greatly reduces the chance of a false ping.

Who had Kelsey ‘a phone in Idaho. I wait.

 

[MsBetsy]

The first press conference is such an excellent example of LE using the media as a tool. The undercurrent was exactly as you stated, LE hands are tied, meaning they had strong suspicions but not probable cause. Then the media engaged their unspoken role, to hound the identified target. I am so pleased they are executing a SW at the property.

Yes! I really liked it when he said, "that's a good question. We would really like to know that too." They said some variation of that several times.

 

[Cardinal47]

Who was the caretaker of Kelseys baby while she worked! She must have been gone long hours with a 70 minute commute each way?

 

[MsBetsy]

Keep in mind the phone ping was in Idaho where her mothers lives, and on the way to relatives in Washington.

Not Nevada, Arizona, or Iowa. It’s specific location greatly reduces the chance of a false ping.

Who had Kelsey ‘a phone in Idaho. I wait.

Yes, I would really like to think it was accurate. What would help is if they can track PF to that area on that day. Or at least his not being able to account for his whereabouts on that day.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

My problem with this is some aren't merely throwing it out there, they are stating it as fact. <modsnip - discussing other posters>

<modsnip - discussing other posters>

And I fully agree that no suspicion or outcome should be stated as fact. To me, internally, we all probably assign a weight to the possibilities out there based on the amount of information we have at the given moment.

For me, I am at about 75% leaning toward fiancé being involved due to statistics and difficult to explain behavior etc.

I’m about 20% in on the idea it could be a third party that we don’t know about yet, bc Idaho is a long way to go to ping, there’s no sign of struggle or contradictory surveillance footage released at this time, and even some relatives have said “it’s a long story” or asked truckers on the road to keep their eyes open for Kelsey.

I’m willing to leave 5% to the idea that this is an independently motivated disappearance that could be explained by any number of things including—hypothetically—accident, mental stress, substance abuse, another relationship etc. I could think of very minuscule reasons why I don’t rule these out, but assign them only a very low percentage due to the lack of details that make these likely.

What about you all? What kind of percentages do you assign to the different possibilities?

 

[MyBelle]

Keep in mind the phone ping was in Idaho where her mothers lives, and on the way to relatives in Washington.

Not Nevada, Arizona, or Iowa. It’s specific location greatly reduces the chance of a false ping.

Who had Kelsey ‘a phone in Idaho. I wait.

ITA. It was intentional placement to buy more time to cover the evidence. JMO

 

[Deleted member 155000]

Keep in mind the phone ping was in Idaho where her mothers lives, and on the way to relatives in Washington.

Not Nevada, Arizona, or Iowa. It’s specific location greatly reduces the chance of a false ping.

Who had Kelsey ‘a phone in Idaho. I wait.

This is a factor in why I hold out other possibilities as well.

 

[BRRI]

Yes, I'm still hoping someone can give an explanation for "false pings" and other discrepancies regarding that kind of data, as well as its accuracy. I have become very curious about that.
There was a poster or two who was able to explain how all that works in the Mollie Tibbetts case but I can't remember all that technical stuff for the life of me.

Yes this was the poster I was hoping would join but couldn’t remember their user name!

 

[AgeofAquaruis]

You should ask him how a "false ping" can occur. I asked about it earlier but we need some tech people to share their knowledge.

I think for legal reasons it would best to have the Verizon spokesperson to clarify. I only know enough to say they know their stuff. How they know is far beyond my understanding.

 

[Beamer15]

KB had a 70 mile one way commute to work. Not unusual to have a family vehicle, and another for commuting. I do.

Yes, Pueblo, where she is a flight instructor is about 2 hours south of Denver. I was just there, beautiful little city. As you say, not unusual to make that drive, it is an easy one straight down 25 south.

 

[Kapua]

<modsnip - discussing other posters>

And I fully agree that no suspicion or outcome should be stated as fact. To me, internally, we all probably assign a weight to the possibilities out there based on the amount of information we have at the given moment.

For me, I am at about 75% leaning toward fiancé being involved due to statistics and difficult to explain behavior etc.

I’m about 20% in on the idea it could be a third party that we don’t know about yet, bc Idaho is a long way to go to ping, there’s no sign of struggle or contradictory surveillance footage released at this time, and even some relatives have said “it’s a long story” or asked truckers on the road to keep their eyes open for Kelsey.

I’m willing to leave 5% to the idea that this is an independently motivated disappearance that could be explained by any number of things including—hypothetically—accident, mental stress, substance abuse, another relationship etc. I could think of very minuscule reasons why I don’t rule these out, but assign them only a very low percentage due to the lack of details that make these likely.

What about you all? What kind of percentages do you assign to the different possibilities?

I agree!
I am 99% leaning toward fiancé being involved, 0.9% on it being someone other than the fiancé, but close enough to know who he is and where KB worked, and 0.1% in on she walked away after giving the child to PF, taking only her purse.

ETA: I am 75% on phone being driven to Idaho and 25% on false ping.

 

[Deleted member 155000]

Because her mother and LE continue to refer to PF as the fiance and there is a sealed search warrant ordering the search of the fiance's property. JMO

I agree on a couple things. It does seem obvious the mother believed they were in a relationship, although I am not sure she had the full story. And I don’t think we should take PF’s word for anything. Did you hear LE refer to PF as the fiancé in the press conference yesterday? I only remember them referring to him as the parent of their shared child but I might have missed this. Please feel free to send me a link.

 

[JRAIG]

Are there any attorneys out there who could speak to the probable cause needed to search PF’s property and vehicle?

Would the fact that he was the last one to see her via the “custody exchange” be enough for that search or would they need more to go on to obtain the search warrant?

 

[sun16]

I found an article when we were back on page 1 that talked about a glitch that occurred a few years ago, where the cell phone company recorded the data from the incoming, rather than the outgoing phone whenever the call went to voice mail. Unfortunately, I can't find it now. Otherwise, I don't know how a "false ping" could occur, but I personally don't want to rule it out just yet.

ETA: found it; it was an AT&T glitch.

More AT&T Cellphone Ping Drama : serialpodcastorigins

Now this that you mention is interesting to me. Maybe the ping was a false in reverse. I still am not convinced that Kelsey left her town. I think she is there, somewhere.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I could see the attempt to set a scene by having her phone send texts to work and to BF saying she's off to see family in N ID, then setting up for her phone to ping at a place the guilty party faultily assumed (not knowing the normal routes) would be along the way. Or maybe she was "supposedly" going to E WA or someplace where Gooding actually is along the way.

In any case, he might have hoped that the focus of the search would be up near the ping. Looking for a car over the side, etc.

No text to Mom because mom is up in the vicinity and would know there was no plan for a visit.

Maybe he asked a buddy or family member to take a drive with her phone, turn it on at x point, then turn off destroy/dispose of phone nearby.

Problems with this: he didn't disappear her supposed vehicle. Why not? I got nothing...

Also it would seem to have been a better plan to leave the phone on after it was tossed, so it would keep pinging there.

All 100% opinion and speculation.

 

[Cardinal47]

<modsnip discussing other posters>

And I fully agree that no suspicion or outcome should be stated as fact. To me, internally, we all probably assign a weight to the possibilities out there based on the amount of information we have at the given moment.

For me, I am at about 75% leaning toward fiancé being involved due to statistics and difficult to explain behavior etc.

I’m about 20% in on the idea it could be a third party that we don’t know about yet, bc Idaho is a long way to go to ping, there’s no sign of struggle or contradictory surveillance footage released at this time, and even some relatives have said “it’s a long story” or asked truckers on the road to keep their eyes open for Kelsey.

I’m willing to leave 5% to the idea that this is an independently motivated disappearance that could be explained by any number of things including—hypothetically—accident, mental stress, substance abuse, another relationship etc. I could think of very minuscule reasons why I don’t rule these out, but assign them only a very low percentage due to the lack of details that make these likely.

What about you all? What kind of percentages do you assign to the different possibilities?

I'm at 50%, 25% and 25%. The 50% is only because of the three day warranted search of the property. Do they know something or is this harrassment?

The first 25% is because there are a lot of unknowns. Friends, boyfriends, wanderlust!
The third 25% is She could wander in at any time!

 

[chihuahua]

I know we are all suffering from CWatts *disgust* and that makes sense.
We can "black swan" this disappearance as long as we keep hope alive. Betting against strong odds.
I'm with Kelsey and her loved ones who are just hoping she makes it home to Emma.
Got nothing else right now.
Until someone is officially named a suspect or POI we can only sleuth and speculate.
Chi

 

[Thinker22]

I'm going to muse a bit here. As a flight instructor for folks who will become "tomorrow's warfighters" she would have come into contact with numerous young men and women in the course of her duties. I sure hope there's been a thorough screening of those contacts.

I don't know a LOT about pilots, but I do know that many of the prefer to fly rather than drive when taking a trip of several hundred miles. What are the chances she hooked up with someone (coworker, friend, Craigslist Rideshare) flying to the Pacific NW and took the opportunity to split fuel cost, flying time, etc. Maybe Idaho was a refueling stop.

 

[bestill]

To me many of the answers to what may have happened to Kelsey lie in what PF didn't do, not necessarily what he did do. Questions I'm sure LE have or are looking for answers to:
1) Did he use his phone normally from 11-22 to 11-25 or did he go silent? What is his online activity like?
2) What does the GPS on his truck say about his activity, was he driving around locally or was it sitting in his driveway?
3) Did he miss the time he was supposed to return the baby to her mom and no one knew?
4) Why did he not report her missing and show concern immediately?
5) What did he tell his family about having the baby only with him and not sharing custody?
6) Did his family have a Thanksgiving dinner planned and he didn't make it or he showed up only with the baby?

So many questions! I hope the search is going to answer several of them for us.