CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[Auntie Cipation]

What month and year were they taken?

And are the photos from the mainstream Merced or from the South Fork Merced?

 

[Quiet Time]

I can't really see how there would be a marijuana grow on steep (and recently burned) ground so near to the popular (when it's not 110*) trails and to the river which I presume to be popular for recreating except for the algae issue -- (which raises the question: is this year the first time the algae blooms have been an issue? Or is it a regular thing now?)

In any case I would expect any illegal mj grows to be in the backcountry away from formal maintained and popular trails. Somewhere with a small unknown side creek they can suck water from without anyone knowing, not the South Fork Merced River.

I really don't know how big a problem that is or isn't (frankly I expected illegal grows on federal land to disappear altogether once mj became legal but apparently it hasn't so I am clueless about these details). But this area just doesn't seem like a probable spot to me personally.

And in addition, I don't think a passing encounter with applied herbicide/pesticide runoff would cause instant death? I think it would be a much more subtle or cumulative problem if there was frequent repeated exposure. Unless they literally drank a bottle of it straight? Which makes no sense in this case. MOO

I agree. I doubt anyone would be growing weed in that area.

Too hot, bad soil, algae in the water.

jmo

 

[woods]

The 8.5-mile loop between Hites Cove and Savage Lundy trails is steep and challenging, and mostly popular during the cooler spring months, said Assistant Recreation Officer at the Bass Lake Ranger District.
Feds close trails near mysterious Mariposa County family death for 'unknown hazards'

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

Here's one

What month and year were they taken?

The Ecological Angler - Fly Fishing the South Fork Merced River (ecoangler.com) is one. No one is fishing in that river right now, access is closed, no?

 

[SpideySense]

MOO - A fish kill, which I think is what you’re referring to, is a completely different occurrence. It’s caused by plant-like algae (not blue-green algae) using up all the dissolved oxygen in the water, thereby suffocating all the local fish. That’s not what causes an algae warning for dogs and humans. And I haven’t seen any documents indicating a fish kill in the South Fork Merced, or any water tests indicating toxic algae upstream from Hites Cove.

MOO - I need to correct what I wrote in this post because I made a distinction that’s not warranted. Fish kills are caused by algae blooms of all kinds, including blue-green algae. But again, it’s not because of cyanobacteria toxins. It’s because these blooms must eventually die, and when they do, the microbes that decay them deplete the water of oxygen, suffocating fish in large numbers.
MOO

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

And are the photos from the mainstream Merced or from the South Fork Merced?

There are past photos from both.

South Fork Merced River - Fly Fishing the Sierra

When Can I Fish the Merced River? - The California Outdoors

Merced River - South Fork - Hite Cove Fish Report - Mariposa County, CA (Mariposa County) (norcalfishreports.com)

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

MOO - I need to correct what I wrote in this post because I made a distinction that’s not warranted. Fish kills are caused by algae blooms of all kinds, including blue-green algae. But again, it’s not because of cyanobacteria toxins. It’s because these blooms must eventually die, and when they do, the microbes that decay them deplete the water of oxygen, suffocating fish in large numbers.
MOO

The toxins that were found in that river can also kill fish, I posted an academic article elsewhere.

 

[HMSHood]

The severe drought likely contributed to toxic algae bloom.

California’s Drought Response Will Worsen Harmful Algae

 

[everybodhi]

And in addition, I don't think a passing encounter with applied herbicide/pesticide runoff would cause instant death? I think it would be a much more subtle or cumulative problem if there was frequent repeated exposure. Unless they literally drank a bottle of it straight? Which makes no sense in this case. MOO

If they are using pesticides that are so lethal that it would kill a family walking by, I would expect the growers to all be dead as well.

 

[SpideySense]

The toxins that were found in that river can also kill fish, I posted an academic article elsewhere.

“The dose makes the poison,” as they say. Anything can kill if the dose is high enough, including water and oxygen. The study you posted described baby fish in a laboratory aquarium being artificially exposed to freeze-dried anatoxin-a for a period of time until they died. It’s not a study of what fish are exposed to in a natural setting. I’m not aware of any fish kill caused by anatoxin-a. In fact, most algae warnings say don’t eat the fish because they might bioaccumulate the toxin rather than die from it. MOO

 

[woods]

The SF Chronicle journalist received recent pictures of the south fork of Merced River and the toxic bacteria bloom on banks.
https://twitter.com/mgafni/status/1428903681483710464?s=21

“Spoke to biology professor who said freshwater bacteria likely Anatoxin-a, also known as Very Fast Death Factor (seriously), that can kill dogs & possibly humans, although very rare.”

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

“The dose makes the poison,” as they say. Anything can kill if the dose is high enough, including water and oxygen. The study you posted described baby fish in a laboratory aquarium being artificially exposed to freeze-dried anatoxin-a for a period of time until they died. It’s not a study of what fish are exposed to in a natural setting. I’m not aware of any fish kill caused by anatoxin-a. In fact, most algae warnings say don’t eat the fish because they might bioaccumulate the toxin rather than die from it. MOO

Obviously how significant the exposure is and for how long would matter. For those super interested in this point you could contact local authorities to check on the well being of the fish, I suppose and report back to the class.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

I agree. I doubt anyone would be growing weed in that area.

Too hot, bad soil, algae in the water.

jmo

Good points, too public too it would seem. That trail is used more in spring and fall, and the area on the switchbacks is so open. Seems they would want something a bit more secluded or less obvious.

 

[SophieRose]

Happened in July, died in Sept.

Local woman dies after suffering tragic hiking accident in Arizona

According to the family's page, 26-year-old Rebecca Rowan was hiking on a trail with her brother near Tucson, Arizona. The pair ran out of water during the hike and accidentally wandered off the trail when they became confused due to heat exhaustion and dehydration.

 

[wary]

Ah. I’m getting the theories mixed up. So we are talking about potentially being exposed to a toxin and then succumbing as a result? I suppose it’s possible. It depends on how long it would take to make them sick. Because it looks like they were halfway up the hill back to the car when they succumbed? Do I have that right?

Yes, from all I’ve seen, they were halfway between the river and their car, 1.5 miles away from their car.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

MOO - I need to correct what I wrote in this post because I made a distinction that’s not warranted. Fish kills are caused by algae blooms of all kinds, including blue-green algae. But again, it’s not because of cyanobacteria toxins. It’s because these blooms must eventually die, and when they do, the microbes that decay them deplete the water of oxygen, suffocating fish in large numbers.
MOO

If the concentration is significant enough the toxin can also kill fish per the study.

 

[Coquette]

Yes, @Rocky Mountain Hi, there are several viable theories, aren't there? And even more that are unspeakable.

As far as illegal grow ops, I am generally always concerned about pesticide contamination. But with regards to this case, my attention has zeroed in on the common use by grow operators of Carbofuran to intentionally poison animals who raid food and supplies in their camp sites and more recently, humans who threaten their operations / livelihood (e.g. LE). [see Audubon article ^^^.]

In addition to the Audubon article I posted early this morning, here is a wiki post on Carbonfuran that declares it "...is one of the most toxic pesticides still in use." and "has one of the highest acute toxicities to humans of any insecticide widely used on field crops... ). I ml (1/4 teaspoon) can be fatal to humans."
Carbofuran - Wikipedia

Per the Audubon article, IF the family was exposed to Carbofuran it could be Oski ate from a bait trap on the trail intended for coyotes, racoons, etc. and/or they splashed through contaminated water on the trail or a dump site and/or maybe they tripped a boobie trap that sprayed them...

I think all that sounds remote in terms of theory possibility for this case. But recall @Coquette who lives near this area has reported here LE has recently been cracking down on illegal grow ops so I wonder about heightened security and defenses around them.

@RedHaus I'm not in the area. I divide my time between Los Angeles and Joshua Tree, here in Southern CA. We have a lot of Illegal grows in the desert and raids are common. While Humboldt County is the perhaps the most well known grow county in California, illegal grows are popping up throughout the state. Thankfully, LE in cracking down on them. In many places they deplete water sources and/or contaminate them.

MOO.

 

[SpideySense]

Is this the smoking gun?

I just found these images in archived storm cell/precipitation maps on Radar from 08/15/2021, 08:20pm - Mariposa. And now I am incredibly, incredibly sad.

There was a storm cell over them that day. I’ve marked the family’s location on the switchbacks with a red dot to the best of my ability on the images, but I’m no cartographer.

As you can see, a rather large cell was approaching Wawona at 6:00pm PDT (the times on the images are CDT, so you have to subtract 2 hours). The center of that cell is about 12 miles from the family, as the crow flies.

It proceeded to move northwest, directly towards the family, over the course of the next hour, until it was nearly on top of them by 7:10pm.

At any time during that hour, out on the exposed set of switchbacks, they were in clear danger from cloud to ground lightning emanating from that cell. And the time frame matches the time that I at least would have waited to start heading up that god-awful trail.

I don’t need any more proof at this point, and I’ll just wait for LE to call it. Finding this data made me actually nauseous and depressed. God speed to them all.

 

[EndoraXplorer]

On the topic of illegal grows, in the Sheriff Briese "Inside the Office" video, at the 9:53 marks, he talks about "one of the largest marijuana operations" that the Sheriff's office has ever conducted in Mariposa with the help of "many allied resources and individuals." He describes what they did. They arrested 14 people, took 12 guns, there was meth/cocaine, child endangerment, animal cruelty, and more, including "environmental crimes."
Thank you again @Lexiintoronto for sleuthing the direct link to the video:

 

[Smokingun]

The point of the matter as to the toxic water IMO, at the very least, Oski, could’ve very easily been exposed. And we now know the possibility of exposure was well beyond ‘warning’ (given the fact 28 miles of river is now closed). The river near where the family was found, contained ‘high’ levels of anatoxin A (from the sheriff directly on his monthly live video update posted previously in this thread). As also detailed in this thread, Anatoxin A is a neurotoxin, which would’ve rendered Oski unable to function properly within a very short period of time (30 to 60 min), and ultimately caused death. If that’s the case, they would’ve been panicking and moving more quickly. Warming everyone up faster and uphill the entire way to the vehicle. Again, maps, elevations, etc have been provided in this thread.

Algae Poisoning
“The outcome with anatoxins is even bleaker. Signs of poisoning occur within 30-60 minutes of exposure and target the nervous system. The animals develop overactive secretions producing excess saliva (drooling) and tears. Muscle tremors occur and while some muscles become very rigid others are paralyzed. Decreased oxygen delivery causes mucus membranes and skin to take on a blue tint. Paralysis of the diaphragm (also a muscle) results in respiratory failure and death.’