CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

[gitana1]

Well, I've done it in the pouring rain, snow, the humidity of a NY summer, and just about everything in between (and the last six years was pre-and post-total hip replacement and I'm a smoker...) Our mountains aren't nearly as large as those out west, but they aren't anything to sneeze at, either. I was only saying that he has a larger frame than I do, so I wouldn't think that weight would be so very taxing.

I'm fully in the camp of this being a heat-related event, but I don't think it was exclusive to the added weight of carrying the baby.

Agreed. I don’t think what happened was exclusive to any weight. But carrying weight does make it more difficult.

 

[gitana1]

Based on the information described (quoting LE) in news articles, it appears their footprints went DOWN the Hites Cove trail, but not back UP it. No mention was made of footprints heading DOWN the Savage-Lundy trail.

I do not equate "searching the trail on his phone" with "planning to hike that trail" necessarily. It's consistent, but it's not conclusive evidence of his intent. He may have searched the trail, then looked at other topo maps, and decided to try the loop. He may have searched multiple trails shortly before the hike, but we've only heard about the one search.

I can't see how we can rule out them hiking on SL since that's where they were found. MOO

I thought I was going nuts! Thanks for the clarifications.

 

[gitana1]

While I agree it was certainly hot enough for a heat related medical episode, I can't come to this conclusion for a couple reasons. First, all of them expiring. And second, the dog. Dogs are smarter than humans when it comes to this sort of thing, despite their loyalty. The dog would have laid down and refused to carry on, IMO. Still not adding up for me, and all explanations offered still don't compute for me.

Amateur opinion and speculation

If the dog lay down they may have stayed by the dog hoping she would revive or tried to carry the poor dog, either of which could have caused more time to pass on the super hot, exposed trail, leading to the adults themselves becoming overcome.

But it is certainly mysterious. Two adults, an infant and a dog, all found dead, super close to one another. It’s confusing. Couldn’t they have gone back down to the river if things started to go wrong? It’s hard to understand the sequence of events.

 

[gitana1]

Here's video of the South Fork Merced taken in June 2021 to get an idea of what the upstream water looked like earlier this year not far from where they were. Starts at about :58 and ends about 2:20.

It’s beautiful. Hard to imagine it’s toxic there. I would love to hike there. There are no beautiful rivers like that where I hike!!! Mostly dry washes and in some places tiny streams.

 

[SophieRose]

Photos of the cleanup of the South Fork, including the Savage Lundy Trail, after the fire

https://photos.google.com/share/AF1...?key=bXc4cVZkeGlOZGtUWFhvN0tqYmJGbVNxb0dFcGtB

https://www.yosemite.ca.us/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4439#p17024

(from the photographer)
What was most impressive to me were the huge holes where large trees had not only burned to the ground, but also left myriad tunnels snaking underground where the roots burned up below the soil. Some of these were directly under the trail, and we had some fun filling them in to prevent future hikers from falling into the depths of hell...

 

[gitana1]

I've had dogs all my life, they don't all behave the same so it's quite possible this dog laid down and refused to go on. Then what? The humans would have a choice to make- leave the dog, carry the dog, or stop and try to coax it into continuing. An overheated dog lying in 100F/38C+ heat, with no shade would quickly go from refusing to continue to being unable to continue. The humans just climbed ~1000'/305m in extreme heat with no shade, and they have only a small amount of water left. Their dog is dead or dying, and the gravity of their situation is sinking in. They take off the backpack so they can both take a close look at their baby. They're feeling the effects of incipient heat stroke, and need to sit down. According to the National Weather Service "It surprises many people to learn that the heat index values in the chart above are for shady locations. If you are exposed to direct sunlight, the heat index value can be increased by up to 15°F (8°C)." It computes for me. That's my own opinion of roughly what happened.

I never knew that. So whenever I see a temp. reading it’s for conditions in the shade? What’s the difference between shade temps and full sun temps? How much would we add?

 

[rahod1]

Here's video of the South Fork Merced taken in June 2021 to get an idea of what the upstream water looked like earlier this year not far from where they were. Starts at about :58 and ends about 2:20.

Where on the South Fork was this taken? The South Fork is 43 Miles long!
South Fork Merced River - Wikipedia

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/Mercedmap-new-01.png

 

[rahod1]

I thought I was going nuts! Thanks for the clarifications.

It was also mentioned that another SR team was sent down the OTHER trail that completes the loop .. Savage Lundy...where the bodies were discovered. IN MY OPINION, what @Auntie Cipation has said strongly points to the family attempting the loop from Hites Cove (where prints were found) to Savage Lundy. I can't see any other interpretation. MOO

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I never knew that. So whenever I see a temp. reading it’s for conditions in the shade? What’s the difference between shade temps and full sun temps? How much would we add?

When in direct sun it can feel like around 15*F warmer than the actual/shaded temperature. MOO but I can find the official source if requested.

 

[Newsjunkiejen]

I never knew that. So whenever I see a temp. reading it’s for conditions in the shade? What’s the difference between shade temps and full sun temps? How much would we add?

I think the temperature differential between shade and full sun can be anything up to 15°F (8°C)

 

[SophieRose]

Where on the South Fork was this taken? The South Fork is 43 Miles long!
South Fork Merced River - Wikipedia

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/Mercedmap-new-01.png

Title of video says "Yosemite 2021 - Hites Cove - Tenaya Canyon."
First part in or near Hites Cove. If you have seen other pictures of Hites Cove, you will have seen that same equipment in the video.

Second part of video is not on South Fork Merced, but in Tenaya Canyon, located east of Yosemite Valley and Half Dome. NOTHING TO DO WITH STORY.

 

[rahod1]

Title of video says "Yosemite 2021 - Hites Cove - Tenaya Canyon."
First part in or near Hites Cove. If you have seen other pictures of Hites Cove, you will have seen that same equipment in the video.

Second part of video is not on South Fork Merced, but in Tenaya Canyon, located east of Yosemite Valley and Half Dome.

If that was near Hite Cove (where the South Fork originates), then the video relating to it is FAR NORTH of where this family (Garrish) would have taken the river.
Here's a map of where Hite Cove is and the South Fork origin:
You can scroll down the map to the Marble Point area to see where they would have come down to the River from Hite Cove trail. It's way South
Map

Here's The Marble Point area where they then would gone further down intersecting the South Fork

Map

 

[Deleted member 222031]

Where on the South Fork was this taken? The South Fork is 43 Miles long!
South Fork Merced River - Wikipedia

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/Mercedmap-new-01.png

Found a brochure that talks about Tenaya Lake, Hites Cove & Savage Lundy (Bass Lake Ranger District)


https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5344038.pdf

Google Maps shows Hites Cove & Tenaya Canyon to be about an hour from each other.

From the photos of S-L rehab, they might have found going back to the car via Hites Cove trail a better, if equally steep, route.

I am now leaning toward ground lightning strike on S-L. Terrain looks inhospitable after a day in/along the river.

JMO

 

[SophieRose]

If that was near Hite Cove (where the South Fork originates), then the video relating to it is FAR NORTH of where this family (Garrish) would have taken the river.
Here's a map of where Hite Cove is and the South Fork origin:
You can scroll down the map to the Marble Point area to see where they would have come down to the River from Hite Cove trail. It's way South
Map

Here's The Marble Point area where they would gone further down intersecting the South Fork

Map

Map at bottom
Hite Cove

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

Here's pictures taken in 2015 (bad drought year, hardly any rain) of a maintenance crew working on the Savage Lundy Trail. For more pictures swipe arrows.

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In 2018 the Ferguson Fire burned thru that area, incinerating the steep slope where they were found. It looks like the surface of Mars now. Here's a screenshot from Microsoft Bing Maps. Don't know the exact date of the image, but it's after the 2018 fire. Imagine hiking up thru that wasteland in searing heat. I labeled the switchbacks and very roughly where the family was found.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

If the dog lay down they may have stayed by the dog hoping she would revive or tried to carry the poor dog, either of which could have caused more time to pass on the super hot, exposed trail, leading to the adults themselves becoming overcome.

But it is certainly mysterious. Two adults, an infant and a dog, all found dead, super close to one another. It’s confusing. Couldn’t they have gone back down to the river if things started to go wrong? It’s hard to understand the sequence of events.

They could have gone back to the river, but they didn't. I think a logical explanation is that they knew they were running out of safe water and the whole family was suffering from the heat, some much more than others. That would be a powerful motivation to persevere in an effort to get their loved ones to the safety of their truck, only 3 miles away. But it was also 2000'/610m of elevation gain, in extreme heat with no shade. I'm surprised they made it half way. I'm certain I would have died sooner. IMHO.

 

[gitana1]

When in direct sun it can feel like around 15*F warmer than the actual/shaded temperature. MOO but I can find the official source if requested.

Thank you. That’s scary. But good to know.

 

[gitana1]

I think the temperature differential between shade and full sun can be anything up to 15°F (8°C)

Dang! So if it was 109 that day at 1:00 pm, it could’ve been up to 124 degrees on the trail going up?

 

[jonjon747]

I plotted on map with distance where they hiked and their car was parked.
Earlier news articles showing the overall map were quite out of proportion.
I used google map and hope it's more accurate presentation than previous ones.
Overall distance of finishing the loop trail would be much longer than 8~ 12 miles than previously estimated.

trailsmapped

 

[SophieRose]

I never knew that. So whenever I see a temp. reading it’s for conditions in the shade? What’s the difference between shade temps and full sun temps? How much would we add?

I first found out about sun temps when the French couple died of sunstroke in White Sands back in 2015. Here's what a new poster here at WS remarked (first comment):

NM - French tourists dead, child rescued at White Sands

What I first noticed when I read about this tragedy was no one ever said anything about the temperature in the sun. The 100 degrees was the temperature we were registering in the shade that day, not the sun. The shade temperature today is 97 degrees so I just put the thermometer in the sun on the ground outside and within 10 minutes it was registering 123.5 degrees!