CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

[Lex Parsimoniae]

I’m so confused. Again.



Can you mark where they parked and the loop they did?

Sure. Here's a map. X is roughly where they were found. This imagery is from before the 2018 fire, the switchback area was totally burned to bare earth at that time.

 

[rahod1]

Sure. Here's a map. X is roughly where they were found. This imagery is from before the 2018 fire, the switchback area was totally burned to bare earth at that time.

That should eliminate any confusion!!!

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I made a map too.

Part of the problem is that there are [at least] TWO trails known as Hite Cove/Hites Cove. The one that @jonjon747 marked on his map is not where they were.

Here you can see in the upper left the trailhead of the wrong Hite Cove trail, starting at Highway 140. But that's not where they were -- the red rectangle shows the area where they were actually hiking.



Now zooming in to that red rectangle area, you can see where they were.



Blue dot = where truck parked.

Yellow line = first leg, down (the other) Hites Cove trail

Green line = trail along the SF Merced River. This might be called part of Hites Cove trail as well, I'm not sure.

Red line = Savage-Lundy trail, they were hiking back up.

Black dot = roughly where they were found.



MOO

 

[Bodhi]

It isn't only shade from a tree that lowers air temperature underneath a tree. Evapotranspiration from trees does also. Evapotranspiration has its greatest effect on temperature in the early afternoon. The effect of shade is greatest then too.

"Trees and vegetation lower surface and air temperatures by providing shade and through evapotranspiration. Shaded surfaces, for example, may be 20–45°F (11–25°C) cooler than the peak temperatures of unshaded materials.1 Evapotranspiration, alone or in combination with shading, can help reduce peak summer temperatures by 2–9°F (1–5°C)."​

Using Trees and Vegetation to Reduce Heat Islands | US EPA
Using Trees and Vegetation to Reduce Heat Islands | US EPA
​

I am reminded that trees lower the air temperature significantly every day in the summer when I go to get the mail. Our house is in the woods. The driveway is 100 yards long. Our mailbox is across the street, and the yards on that side of the street are open. When I step out from the treeline on a sunny day, it feels like hitting a wall. The sun feels blinding. And the heat feels like a physical barrier. The difference between sun and shade feels incredible.

 

[Seattle1]

Sure. Here's a map. X is roughly where they were found. This imagery is from before the 2018 fire, the switchback area was totally burned to bare earth at that time.

Thank you @Lex Parsimoniae - adding my own MSM notes to use your map for reference.

Mariposa residents John Gerrish, Ellen Chung, their daughter, Miju, and family dog, Oski, were found dead Tuesday on the Savage-Lundy Trail in Devil’s Gulch near Hites Cove.

Briese said the deceased family was found a couple miles from the south fork of the Merced River.


Briese said the family was found about 1.5 miles from their vehicle, a gray truck. It was parked at a trailhead down Hites Cove Road past the Jerseydale Sierra National Forest station and community of Mariposa Pines.

That remote trailhead along a dirt road is north of Highway 49 and east of Highway 140. It’s different from another popular trailhead to the Hites Cove area along Highway 140 in the river canyon closer to Yosemite.

A Mariposa County Sheriff’s Office official stopped some media Wednesday afternoon along Hites Cove Road near the Hites Cove Helipad, past Apperson Mine Road, stating the scene ahead was closed. Search and rescue crews took the bodies of the Mariposa family out later that afternoon.

The Savage-Lundy Trail – described by Briese as a steep, established and popular trail – was also closed around where the family was found.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/local/article253642528.html

 

[Seattle1]

I made a map too.

Part of the problem is that there are [at least] TWO trails known as Hite Cove/Hites Cove. The one that @jonjon747 marked on his map is not where they were.

Here you can see in the upper left the trailhead of the wrong Hite Cove trail, starting at Highway 140. But that's not where they were -- the red rectangle shows the area where they were actually hiking.

View attachment 312593

Now zooming in to that red rectangle area, you can see where they were.

View attachment 312594

Blue dot = where truck parked.

Yellow line = first leg, down (the other) Hites Cove trail

Green line = trail along the SF Merced River. This might be called part of Hites Cove trail as well, I'm not sure.

Red line = Savage-Lundy trail, they were hiking back up.

Black dot = roughly where they were found.


MOO

Brilliant @Auntie Cipation -- I could hug you! x

 

[Bodhi]

"Even more dramatically, the temperature difference between shaded and non-shaded ground can be as much as 36°F, based on some studies described below. While the studies measured temperature of the ground surface, heating differences also occur at the surface of an animal’s fur or a person’s skin."
From: "Trees and Local Temperature", Climate, Forest, and Woodlands. Trees and Local Temperature – Climate, Forests and Woodlands
​

The sun increases surface temperatures substantially. Without vegetation, the temperature of the ground and rocks on the trail would have been substantially higher. Depending on the color and geology, the rocks might be radiating heat. Sitting to rest on the trail would have been brutal. IMO, it'd force a hiker to stay on their feet as long as they were able and keep moving.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

"Even more dramatically, the temperature difference between shaded and non-shaded ground can be as much as 36°F, based on some studies described below. While the studies measured temperature of the ground surface, heating differences also occur at the surface of an animal’s fur or a person’s skin."
From: "Trees and Local Temperature", Climate, Forest, and Woodlands. Trees and Local Temperature – Climate, Forests and Woodlands
​

The sun increases surface temperatures substantially. Without vegetation, the temperature of the ground and rocks on the trail would have been substantially higher. Depending on the color and geology, the rocks might be radiating heat. Sitting to rest on the trail would have been brutal. IMO, it'd force a hiker to stay on their feet as long as they were able and keep moving.

Wow to the ground being as much as 36* higher in direct sun!

Now I think we are starting to see how even people who recognized they were heading for "a hike on a very hot day" might still have been entirely unprepared for these kinds of conditions.

A perfect storm of heat, fire-barrened slopes, vulnerable family members, and a river dangerous to drink or cool off in. MOO

 

[MsBetsy]

What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.

amateur opinion and speculation

I don't think it's improbable. I can't imagine them surviving an entire day in that kind of heat. I doubt any of them made it through the first night.

 

[rahod1]

57-Year-Old Woman Found Dead on Arizona Trail After Being Separated from Her Husband on Hike (msn.com)

 

[jonjon747]

I made a map too.

Part of the problem is that there are [at least] TWO trails known as Hite Cove/Hites Cove. The one that @jonjon747 marked on his map is not where they were.

Here you can see in the upper left the trailhead of the wrong Hite Cove trail, starting at Highway 140. But that's not where they were -- the red rectangle shows the area where they were actually hiking.

View attachment 312593

Now zooming in to that red rectangle area, you can see where they were.

View attachment 312594

Blue dot = where truck parked.

Yellow line = first leg, down (the other) Hites Cove trail

Green line = trail along the SF Merced River. This might be called part of Hites Cove trail as well, I'm not sure.

Red line = Savage-Lundy trail, they were hiking back up.

Black dot = roughly where they were found.



MOO

Ok, maybe I got the whole hiking trail name mixed up.
It's not really clear which trail he was looking at when he searched on his mobile app.

Anyone know which hiking trail was JG searching on his phone the night before?
because I can't find the Hite Cove trail in Alltrails.com site.
I only see Hites Cove trail there.

 

[jonjon747]

No, the Hites Cove Trail extends to where their truck was parked. So according to the sheriff, who found foot and paw prints, they went due north to the river on the southern end of the Hites Cove Trail, then east along the river to the Savage Lundy Trail, and southwest on that back toward their truck. If you look with Google Maps Satellite View, or Google Earth you can see the two trails converging where their truck was parked. MOO.

IDK but that's not what Alltrails.com site indicates about the route of this trail.
Anyone know which mobile app JG used to search for this trail?

 

[jonjon747]

How many miles do you figure if they did the whole loop? (I’m bad at math).

And do you think there are any shortcuts? Could you map that out?

Right now, I'm confused as to which trail JG was actually aiming for. I just thought he'd used smartphone app from Alltrails.com.
If they turned right and went toward that downslope switchback trail to reach for Merced river, I mean to go all the way around and hike beside the Devil's Gulch to arrive at SL trail seems a little farther than previously estimated.
it looks like at least a 12 miles of total in distance to me.
I may be wrong here because I'm not certain about the topography and terrains including the trail designs on the right part of the semi-circle.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

57-Year-Old Woman Found Dead on Arizona Trail After Being Separated from Her Husband on Hike (msn.com)

Here's another: A third hiker in four weeks has died in Death Valley National Park, most likely due to causes related to the extreme heat conditions.

 

[Curious_in_NC]

This is a while ago, but....
Coroner cites algae in teen's death

This link seems like a pretty dubious source since it comes with a disclaimer at the top.

But at any rate, that coroner's conclusions were later disputed. Here's the link to that report in a peer reviewed journal.
Strategies to avoid the mis-identification of anatoxin-a using mass spectrometry in the forensic investigation of acute neurotoxic poisoning - ScienceDirect

Here's the gory details:
"Forensic investigations of suspected anatoxin-a (AN) poisonings are often troubled by problems in detecting this toxin in biological and environmental matrices due to its rapid decay. Also, there have been two recent incidents highlighting where possible confusion can occur in forensic investigations of suspected AN poisonings due to the presence of the amino acid, phenylalanine (Phe) (Fig. 1B.). The death of a young adult in the USA in July 2002, following exposure to lakewater, was ascribed to AN poisoning in the coroner's report. This conclusion was reached based mainly on evidence of the identification of AN using liquid chromatography–single quadrupole MS (LC–MS). This identification has since been shown to be incorrect and was the result of a confusion between Phe and AN which are isobaric and have similar LC retention times"

 

[Curious_in_NC]

Right now, I'm confused as to which trail JG was actually aiming for. I just thought he'd used smartphone app from Alltrails.com.
If they turned right and went toward that downslope switchback trail to reach for Merced river, I mean to go all the way around and hike beside the Devil's Gulch to arrive at SL trail seems a little farther than previously estimated.
it looks like at least a 12 miles of total in distance to me.
I may be wrong here because I'm not certain about the topography and terrains including the trail designs on the right part of the semi-circle.

The switchback trail IS the Savage-Lundy trail and it's the one not even listed on AllTrails. Neither of the other trails (Hite's Cove and Hite Cove Rd.) show substantial elevation changes on their AllTrails map profiles. This doesn't make sense to me as it should be nearly a 2000 ft descent down to the river.

Of about a dozen sports and hiking apps I have used, AllTrails is my least favorite. The information doesn't seem that reliable and the reviews often sound more like the ones you find on Googlemaps or Yelp. If you look at some of JG's recorded activities, portions of some "hikes" seem to have been recorded from a vehicle. It's an easy mistake to make if you forget to stop your app or watch from recording. I've done it several times.

 

[willyengland]

Here you can see a map with contour lines:
OpenTopoMap

 

[happyday]

What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.

amateur opinion and speculation

It does seem crazy for all of them to succumb like that, but I just keep coming back to the VERY high temperatures on that exposed trail and really all that had to happen IMO is for the dog to become incapacitated. Carrying a fur ball along with a baby in a pack up that hot steep trail could prove to be impossible. Then all it takes is for the two adults to pass out while trying to figure out what to do. I don’t see that as unlikely or improbable—I think that could easily happen if it was 109+. Then nature would take over taking them one by one if neither adult was conscious to do something to fix the situation. No cell service… their only way out is if one of the adults could make it up 1 1/2 miles out of the canyon. IMO EG was trying to do just that when she passed out.

I think my point is that they didn’t all have to be struck dead just like that to be found where they were. Just two people passing out…Hiking in 109 degrees up a steep canyon could easily make one pass out IMO.

 

[MsBetsy]

The switchback trail IS the Savage-Lundy trail and it's the one not even listed on AllTrails. Neither of the other trails (Hite's Cove and Hite Cove Rd.) show substantial elevation changes on their AllTrails map profiles. This doesn't make sense to me as it should be nearly a 2000 ft descent down to the river.

Of about a dozen sports and hiking apps I have used, AllTrails is my least favorite. The information doesn't seem that reliable and the reviews often sound more like the ones you find on Googlemaps or Yelp. If you look at some of JG's recorded activities, portions of some "hikes" seem to have been recorded from a vehicle. It's an easy mistake to make if you forget to stop your app or watch from recording. I've done it several times.

If that trail isn't listed on Alltrails, I can see why they wouldn't know how strenuous the hike was going to be. Once they reached the switchbacks, it really does sound as if they were trapped.

 

[starviego]

Does anybody know if the Autopsy Report will eventually be made public? I think only then will we get any clear answers.