CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

[Speculaytor]

This is a while ago, but....
Coroner cites algae in teen's death

 

[katydid23]

Possible, but not probable, in my amateur speculation and opinion.

Why is it not probable?

People have posted articles upthread showing that dogs and infants are HIGHLY vulnerable to heat stroke. Much more susceptible than the adults would have been at first. [linked below]

The heat climbed to 102 and up to 107, part way thru their strenuous hike. So what would they do if their furry dog and vulnerable baby began to suffer symptoms of heat stroke? What could they do other than stop, try to cool them down with water and shade?

But then what? The phone has no cell reception. There were no other hikers present. And very little shade available due to recent fires. And the air was smoky from current wildfires nearby.

So even if they stopped to try and treat the baby and dog's symptoms, it would probably not work. There was no shade available. Only the blazing sun overhead---w/blistering temps.

They had some water, but even if they poured it over the baby, it would do little to lower her core temperature. She and the doggie would likely go unconscious before too long.

At that point they would be nearly out of water, the temps are climbing, and they still had at least 3 miles of a strenuous hike in total sun, no shade, to complete before help can be summoned.

Why does it seem unlikely , in your opinion?

https://reverehealth.com/live-better/heat-stroke-in-children-and-babies/
Children are more susceptible to heat exhaustion and heat stroke than healthy adults, which is why it’s essential for parents to know how to recognize the signs and symptoms of heat stroke and how to prevent it.
Heat stroke is a dangerous and life-threatening condition, and it should be treated as a medical emergency.

How To Prevent Heat Stroke in Dogs
Dogs can be more prone to overheating than humans because canine bodies are not as efficient at releasing excess heat as human bodies. While humans have the ability to sweat from head to toe to cool their skin, dogs only do their version of sweating through their paw pads

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

I plotted on map with distance where they hiked and their car was parked.
Earlier news articles showing the overall map were quite out of proportion.
I used google map and hope it's more accurate presentation than previous ones.
Overall distance of finishing the loop trail would be much longer than 8~ 12 miles than previously estimated.

trailsmapped

No, the Hites Cove Trail extends to where their truck was parked. So according to the sheriff, who found foot and paw prints, they went due north to the river on the southern end of the Hites Cove Trail, then east along the river to the Savage Lundy Trail, and southwest on that back toward their truck. If you look with Google Maps Satellite View, or Google Earth you can see the two trails converging where their truck was parked. MOO.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

This is a while ago, but....
Coroner cites algae in teen's death

Thank you for finding and posting that. It’s the first I’ve heard of a confirmed death due to algae. What a tragedy for such a seemingly harmless activity.

“Carmichael's lab studied blood and tissue samples from Rogers and his friends. Tests showed high levels of anatoxin-a, a powerful neurotoxin produced by several species of toxic algae capable of sending the heart into arrest and causing severe abdominal distress.

The results surprised Carmichael, because indications from animal deaths were that lethal levels of anatoxin-a would be almost immediately fatal.

A second round of tests had the same results. Carmichael said the anatoxin-a found in Rogers could only have come from blue-green algae.”


FLORIDA LAX ON ALGAE RISK, EXPERTS SAY

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

This is a while ago, but....
Coroner cites algae in teen's death

Good find. I had searched and been unable to find any solid evidence of a human death in the USA from toxic algae, while locally the deaths of at least two dogs have been positively confirmed to be due to ingesting toxic algae. It seems it's common in dogs, very rare in humans. I think the reason is that dogs aren't particular about water, where humans are grossed out by scum.

 

[Lex Parsimoniae]

When in direct sun it can feel like around 15*F warmer than the actual/shaded temperature. MOO but I can find the official source if requested.

This is common sense- when it's cold, it sure feels good to sit in the sun, and when it's hot, it feels good to move into the shade.

 

[RickshawFan]

Perhaps there was bad water at home, and not just in the river?

Acute Non-viral Hepatitis Illnesses – “Real Water”

 

[rosesfromangels]

Why is it not probable?

People have posted articles upthread showing that dogs and infants are HIGHLY vulnerable to heat stroke. Much more susceptible than the adults would have been at first. [linked below]

The heat climbed to 102 and up to 107, part way thru their strenuous hike. So what would they do if their furry dog and vulnerable baby began to suffer symptoms of heat stroke? What could they do other than stop, try to cool them down with water and shade?

But then what? The phone has no cell reception. There were no other hikers present. And very little shade available due to recent fires. And the air was smoky from current wildfires nearby.

So even if they stopped to try and treat the baby and dog's symptoms, it would probably not work. There was no shade available. Only the blazing sun overhead---w/blistering temps.

They had some water, but even if they poured it over the baby, it would do little to lower her core temperature. She and the doggie would likely go unconscious before too long.

At that point they would be nearly out of water, the temps are climbing, and they still had at least 3 miles of a strenuous hike in total sun, no shade, to complete before help can be summoned.

Why does it seem unlikely , in your opinion?

https://reverehealth.com/live-better/heat-stroke-in-children-and-babies/
Children are more susceptible to heat exhaustion and heat stroke than healthy adults, which is why it’s essential for parents to know how to recognize the signs and symptoms of heat stroke and how to prevent it.
Heat stroke is a dangerous and life-threatening condition, and it should be treated as a medical emergency.

How To Prevent Heat Stroke in Dogs
Dogs can be more prone to overheating than humans because canine bodies are not as efficient at releasing excess heat as human bodies. While humans have the ability to sweat from head to toe to cool their skin, dogs only do their version of sweating through their paw pads

What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.

amateur opinion and speculation

 

[rosesfromangels]

Perhaps there was bad water at home, and not just in the river?

Acute Non-viral Hepatitis Illnesses – “Real Water”

Good thinking; excellent post.
Alternate scenarios should be explored IMO.

 

[DCA58]

What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.

amateur opinion and speculation

I agree

 

[lotus777]

What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.

amateur opinion and speculation

Here's why the fact that all of them succumbed doesn't make heat stroke a less likely culprit. We know that at a body temperature of 104, internal organs start to shut down (no idea of the "danger zone" body temp for dogs, but they're more susceptible to heat anyway). This danger zone body temp, and what happens when it's reached and exceeded, is just a law of nature and biology. Past a certain body temp a person's system will begin to break down. No ifs, ands, or buts.

The idea that they wouldn't all have succumbed to heat stroke doesn't take this into account. The implication seems to be that heat stroke is something that happens by chance. But it occurs as a result of very specific conditions. All it would take would be severe enough conditions to push everyone's body temp into the danger zone, with the baby and dog more susceptible anyway.

Under the right conditions, 20 people in the same location would all get heat stroke. Nothing to do with chance, just the limits of the human body.

I also think being on this hike could be categorized as "trapped." Trapped in the heat and sun.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Dang! So if it was 109 that day at 1:00 pm, it could’ve been up to 124 degrees on the trail going up?

Well, the temperature of the air would be more or less the same in both the sun and in the shade, but how it feels to a creature is much hotter (~15* hotter) because the sun is heating the body mass of the creature perceiving the heat, in addition to experiencing the hot air itself. If I've said that in an understandable way.

The shade temperature today is 97 degrees so I just put the thermometer in the sun on the ground outside and within 10 minutes it was registering 123.5 degrees!

Good experiment! What you saw was not 123.5* air temp in the sun, but 97ish degree air combined with the direct sun heating up the thermometer itself!

And since heat stroke is oriented around the core body temp of the sufferer, rather than the air temp alone, you can see how staying out of direct sun makes a difference.

And also how once body temp is elevated and rising, merely going into cooler-but-still-hot shade is generally not going to reverse it. For all I know even going into 70* air conditioning might not be enough. As others have reported, cold water or ice packs are generally needed to cool the body mass before brain damage and organ failure happen. MOO

 

[rahod1]

I plotted on map with distance where they hiked and their car was parked.
Earlier news articles showing the overall map were quite out of proportion.
I used google map and hope it's more accurate presentation than previous ones.
Overall distance of finishing the loop trail would be much longer than 8~ 12 miles than previously estimated.

trailsmapped

That's off. This is the trail that they likely hiked. It's about 7-8 miles. MOO.
Map

 

[rahod1]

Here's why the fact that all of them succumbed doesn't make heat stroke a less likely culprit. We know that at a body temperature of 104, internal organs start to shut down (no idea of the "danger zone" body temp for dogs, but they're more susceptible to heat anyway). This danger zone body temp, and what happens when it's reached and exceeded, is just a law of nature and biology. Past a certain body temp a person's system will begin to break down. No ifs, ands, or buts.

The idea that they wouldn't all have succumbed to heat stroke doesn't take this into account. The implication seems to be that heat stroke is something that happens by chance. But it occurs as a result of very specific conditions. All it would take would be severe enough conditions to push everyone's body temp into the danger zone, with the baby and dog more susceptible anyway.

Under the right conditions, 20 people in the same location would all get heat stroke. Nothing to do with chance, just the limits of the human body.

I also think being on this hike could be categorized as "trapped." Trapped in the heat and sun.

Excellent points. I think many people can't process the TEMPORAL aspect of this tragedy>>> How could they all die at once??<< They didn't, but the clock was ticking for all victims. We'll never know what transpired out there, but ALL were in dire jeopardy at some point. We KNOW EC was somewhat ahead separated (100ft) from the rest. This is significant in that it tells us she may have taken some action independent of the rest. However, they were a FAMILY, so they would naturally stay together....thus, we have them in proximity as they perished. This is MOO.

 

[katydid23]

Here's why the fact that all of them succumbed doesn't make heat stroke a less likely culprit. We know that at a body temperature of 104, internal organs start to shut down (no idea of the "danger zone" body temp for dogs, but they're more susceptible to heat anyway). This danger zone body temp, and what happens when it's reached and exceeded, is just a law of nature and biology. Past a certain body temp a person's system will begin to break down. No ifs, ands, or buts.

The idea that they wouldn't all have succumbed to heat stroke doesn't take this into account. The implication seems to be that heat stroke is something that happens by chance. But it occurs as a result of very specific conditions. All it would take would be severe enough conditions to push everyone's body temp into the danger zone, with the baby and dog more susceptible anyway.

Under the right conditions, 20 people in the same location would all get heat stroke. Nothing to do with chance, just the limits of the human body.

I also think being on this hike could be categorized as "trapped." Trapped in the heat and sun.

Exactly---it is 'cause and effect.' It is not a random event when someone gets heat stroke. Things happen for a reason: there is a cause for every effect. >>>the Cause explains why something happens. The Effect is the description of what happened.

So it would be even more strange if only one person came down with heat stroke during that inauspicious family hike. The fact that they all perished makes more sense, imo, because of the heat and lack of shade, while they were trapped on the steep portion of the switchback.

 

[gitana1]

I plotted on map with distance where they hiked and their car was parked.
Earlier news articles showing the overall map were quite out of proportion.
I used google map and hope it's more accurate presentation than previous ones.
Overall distance of finishing the loop trail would be much longer than 8~ 12 miles than previously estimated.

trailsmapped

How many miles do you figure if they did the whole loop? (I’m bad at math).

And do you think there are any shortcuts? Could you map that out?

 

[gitana1]

This is a while ago, but....
Coroner cites algae in teen's death

Interesting. Two days later she died! From algae. Crazy!

 

[gitana1]

Why is it not probable?

People have posted articles upthread showing that dogs and infants are HIGHLY vulnerable to heat stroke. Much more susceptible than the adults would have been at first. [linked below]

The heat climbed to 102 and up to 107, part way thru their strenuous hike. So what would they do if their furry dog and vulnerable baby began to suffer symptoms of heat stroke? What could they do other than stop, try to cool them down with water and shade?

But then what? The phone has no cell reception. There were no other hikers present. And very little shade available due to recent fires. And the air was smoky from current wildfires nearby.

So even if they stopped to try and treat the baby and dog's symptoms, it would probably not work. There was no shade available. Only the blazing sun overhead---w/blistering temps.

They had some water, but even if they poured it over the baby, it would do little to lower her core temperature. She and the doggie would likely go unconscious before too long.

At that point they would be nearly out of water, the temps are climbing, and they still had at least 3 miles of a strenuous hike in total sun, no shade, to complete before help can be summoned.

Why does it seem unlikely , in your opinion?

https://reverehealth.com/live-better/heat-stroke-in-children-and-babies/
Children are more susceptible to heat exhaustion and heat stroke than healthy adults, which is why it’s essential for parents to know how to recognize the signs and symptoms of heat stroke and how to prevent it.
Heat stroke is a dangerous and life-threatening condition, and it should be treated as a medical emergency.

How To Prevent Heat Stroke in Dogs
Dogs can be more prone to overheating than humans because canine bodies are not as efficient at releasing excess heat as human bodies. While humans have the ability to sweat from head to toe to cool their skin, dogs only do their version of sweating through their paw pads

And dogs wear fur coats. And are closer to the hot ground. And they have more surface area exposed to the sun.

It irks me but I see people hiking with dogs and they’re drinking water themselves but aren’t giving any to their dogs. It’s ignorance. Not cruelty. They just don’t think. I always have a collapsible dog bowl in my pack so I say their dog looks hot and ask if the dog would like some water. I give my own supply for the dog rather than let the poor thing suffer.

I also then tell them how I worry because I saw a dog die of heat stroke once. (Semi-true. I saw the dog being carried out of the park. I learned later that he died).

 

[gitana1]

No, the Hites Cove Trail extends to where their truck was parked. So according to the sheriff, who found foot and paw prints, they went due north to the river on the southern end of the Hites Cove Trail, then east along the river to the Savage Lundy Trail, and southwest on that back toward their truck. If you look with Google Maps Satellite View, or Google Earth you can see the two trails converging where their truck was parked. MOO.

I’m so confused. Again.

That's off. This is the trail that they likely hiked. It's about 7-8 miles. MOO.
Map

Can you mark where they parked and the loop they did?

 

[rahod1]

What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.
amateur opinion and speculation

Why weren't they trapped? They were all subject to the same HELLISH conditions going back up the switch backs. A 2000Ft climb with no shade and 100F. The infant and pet dog were certainly trapped (most vulnerable). So that leaves JG and EC. They were subject to the same conditions as their dependents AND had the added burden of keeping them alive. There *lies the rub*>>>>how did they cope with that? They would have given everything they had to save them...no doubt in my mind. That's what makes this so tragic. This is MY OPINION ONLY.