Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #56

[Sunny123]

Interesting timing as someone posted on our neighborhood Facebook questioning when it can be opened. They are going to have a board meeting to discuss. I'm staying away as I can see this is going to be such an issue and perhaps very divisive in the neighborhood!

The pool we have for villa residents was open and being used. However, there is a group of people using it whom weren't practicing social distancing, and now it has been closed again.

 

[Bravo]

We had a hand written letter arrive in our mailbox early today. Wanting to buy our House??? Claimed to have purchased 11 properties in our area and wanting 3 more. It was a lengthy letter. Will purchase without any kind of tour inside. It went thru the shredder and I washed my hands. Lordy!

 

[LadyL]

I'm not sure about this link? what does everyone think?

Austria Has 90% Drop in Coronavirus Cases After Requiring People to Wear Face Masks

 

[CSIDreamer]

Similar to when I was a kid and my mother wouldn’t allow us to ride our bikes on a dangerous highway. We would argue that other kids we knew were allowed to, and mom would say, “I’m sorry that their parents don’t care about them as much as I care about YOU.”

Unpopular nowadays, but sometimes parents just have to say, "like it or not, I AM the boss of you".

 

[imstilla.grandma]

 

[The Night Watchman]

I'm not sure about this link? what does everyone think?

Austria Has 90% Drop in Coronavirus Cases After Requiring People to Wear Face Masks

I would guess that Austria took about 10 preventative steps in that period, then assigned the successful drop in cases to masks, which was one of those steps.

Headlines are powerful.

 

[Simply Southern]

Thank you Nick !!!!

Combining Models, New Projection Puts U.S. Coronavirus Deaths At 110,000 By June 6

Enter Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at University of Massachusetts Amherst. Reich and his colleagues have developed a method to compare and ultimately to merge the diverse models of the disease's progression into one "ensemble" projection. The resulting forecast is sobering. By June 6, it projects, the cumulative death toll in the U.S. will reach 110,000.

Reich's approach builds on work he has done over the past four years for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, pulling together the many forecasts that U.S. experts create annually to predict how that year's seasonal influenza will play out.

 

[Fleur-de-lis]

We had a hand written letter arrive in our mailbox early today. Wanting to buy our House??? Claimed to have purchased 11 properties in our area and wanting 3 more. It was a lengthy letter. Will purchase without any kind of tour inside. It went thru the shredder and I washed my hands. Lordy!

As the quote goes, there are two times to make serious money - in the buildup to a crisis, and in the breakdown afterwards...People with some ready cash can really be sitting pretty if they use the opportunities coming up -- but it's sad...

 

[firebird]

I think that what is happening in the children's cases is terrifying. There are those who tested positive and there were others who have the antibodies - with that, we would assume they had recovered from Covid- but obviously not! The symptoms and seemingly cause of death sound horrific. The different symptoms which occur in different individuals is what is most strange. 1 man in the UK suffered 3 strokes before succumbing to a heart attack. It brings organ failure for some people, pneumonia for others and now the poor kids are experiencing a wide range of very serious symptoms. The sooner the experts can suss this virus out, the better for everybody! X

None of those children in the report cited in the OP died. And there were only 5 children involved in the first place. The point of the article was that children may present differently than adults who are Covid positive.

 

[MimosaMornings]

Unpopular nowadays, but sometimes parents just have to say, "like it or not, I AM the boss of you".

Mine grew up with some unpopular parenting decisions! They are just struggling with three younger ones and both working from home. Its far from a Hallmark card scene.

 

[24Roses]

Iowa opening up more: BREAKING: Reynolds announced the opening of some businesses statewide May 15

 

[mickey2942]

Mine grew up with some unpopular parenting decisions! They are just struggling with three younger ones and both working from home. Its far from a Hallmark card scene.

Telling kids that they can't go swimming, can't go for ice cream, no mall, no to everything, can't visit friends, on and on...seems to add a huge layer to parenting right now.

I have had this issue with my husband, who wants certain things from the store, like everything is "normal". He just doesn't seem to "get it".

Families are having some hard times now. It concerns me.

 

[gngr~snap]

Contact Tracing- on CNN
It sounds like if you if you go to a restaurant etc... you will have to "sign in" so if someone else tests positive they can contact you?
Did I hear that wrong?
Moo
Nope. That's correct, in Washington anyway.
Washington Restaurants Will Need to Track Diners’ Info As Part of Reopening Requirements [UPDATED]
And Louisiana
Customer logs will be kept under 'new normal' amid coronavirus in New Orleans, Cantrell says

 

[10ofRods]

BBM. On your question about Irish ICU bed numbers, the answer is: it's complicated! But yes that IHME figure of 50 you found is totally wrong.
Our pre-Covid number of ICU beds was 257. This was increased in March to 285, plus additional 'surge' capacity that would allow our healthcare system to care for up to 411 critical patients, according to this article.

Ireland’s hospital system can deal safely with just 411 patients requiring intensive care facilities, critical care specialists have maintained.

(...)

The representatives of various organisations in the critical care community in Ireland warned that recent surge capacity, which has been developed in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, represented “a short-term solution” and was “not sustainable”.

It said the surge capacity was “provided by staff who are redeployed working with the support of intensive care unit staff”.

(...)

“Recent funding in March of this year from HSE/Department of Health brought our base adult critical care bed numbers from 257 adult beds (197 level 3 and 60 level 2) to 285 (239 level 3 and 46 level 2), still far short of the HSE own recommendations (by 145 beds)..."

Ireland's ICU facilities can deal with just 411 patients, warn critical care specialists

Thank you! (I just remove IMHE from my main dashboard due to this - it's not the only area, and there are now much better projections than theirs - ironically, their only purpose was to analyze health resource use around the globe, they get an F from me - it's not the only error in their data).

It seemed really odd to me that there would be so few ICU beds in Ireland (although, I suppose, if the Irish are super-healthy, it could be the case). I've never been to Ireland and really want to go. Your data show that Ireland has more per capita beds than many other places I've been, and way more than enough to deal with CoVid as you've dealt with it.

We have 7400 ICU beds in California. Half of those are in or near Los Angeles (10 million people). We worried that would not be enough (it was enough - L.A. has approximately 3200 ICU units).

Ireland has really good life expectancy to begin with, but therefore more older people, which probably helps explain the overall mortality rate.

 

[KALI]

# PRAYING #

Vaccine Maker Moderna Moves to Next Phase of Testing

May 12, 2020

n May 12, Moderna Therapeutics, based in Cambridge, Mass., received fast-track approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273. Days earlier, the FDA gave the company the green light to proceed to Phase 2 testing of the vaccine, which is expected to begin shortly. The company plans to launch the final stage of human testing, Phase 3, this summer, assuming the Phase 2 studies are complete, says Dr. Stephen Hoge, president of Moderna.

Fast-track designation boils down to a more expedited review process by the FDA. In particular, it means the agency can review data on a rolling basis so an entire application for approval isn’t held up until the final piece of data is collected and analyzed. “It’s validation that the FDA believes this is a very credible exercise,” says Hoge.

[..]

Moderna’s vaccine relies on a relatively new technology based on the mRNA of the virus; it involves injecting fragments of the viral genetic material into the body, which then stimulates the body’s immune system to fight the novel coronavirus.

[..]

Currently, there are around eight vaccines being tested in people, using different technologies. Public health experts believe that multiple vaccines may be needed in order to meet global demand to immunize and protect as many people as possible from COVID-19 in coming years.

Moderna's experimental coronavirus vaccine gets FDA's 'fast track' status | Daily Mail Online

May 12, 2020

Moderna Inc said on Tuesday the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted 'fast track' designation to its experimental coronavirus vaccine to speed up the regulatory review process.

The company has been racing to develop a safe and effective vaccine against the novel coronavirus that has killed more than 285,000 people globally. It expects to start a late-stage study of the vaccine in early summer.

It's up against competitors like Johnson & Johnson and Novavax, which yesterday received more funding than any other vaccine maker from the epidemic preparedness group CEPI.

However, Moderna had a leg up in the race to create a coronavirus vaccine.

Along with it's NIH and Vaccine Research Center partners, Moderna started developing a vaccine against SARS amid the 2003 outbreak of that virus, the closes cousin to the one that causes COVID-19.

[..]

There are no approved treatments or vaccines for the COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, though some drugs are being used on patients under an emergency-use authorization.

The agency's fast track status is designed to expedite the review of treatments and vaccines meant for serious conditions.

A vaccine or treatment that gets the status is eligible for more frequent meetings with the FDA.

[..]

Moderna, using the platform it had created to develop a SARS vaccine, was able to create a candidate vaccine in January.

By February, it shipped its vaccine to the US government.

Now, there are two Phase 1 trials the shot underway, and on May 6, Moderna's stocks shot up after the FDA greenlit its Phase 2 study.

A Phase 3 trial is set to start late this spring or early this summer.

Moderna CEO says no single drugmaker can produce enough coronavirus vaccine doses for the planet

May 12, 2020

Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said he hopes U.S. and international regulators approve several coronavirus vaccines from multiple companies, because no single manufacturer will be able to meet global demand.

“The odds that every program works are really low, obviously, but I really hope we have three, four, five vaccines, because no manufacturer can make enough doses for the planet,” Bancel said during CNBC’s Healthy Returns Virtual Summit.

Moderna has developed one of the leading coronavirus vaccine candidates in the world. The company is currently wrapping up phase one human trials on it in Seattle and is about to start phase 2 two trials, it announced last week. If it’s effective and safe to use, it could be ready for market in early 2021, the company said.

Bancel said Moderna is working closely with Dr. Anthony Fauci’s team at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to determine the best plan to distribute the vaccine, which could be ready in 12 to 18 months within the U.S.

 

[Mo Thuairim]

Thank you! (I just remove IMHE from my main dashboard due to this - it's not the only area, and there are now much better projections than theirs - ironically, their only purpose was to analyze health resource use around the globe, they get an F from me - it's not the only error in their data).

It seemed really odd to me that there would be so few ICU beds in Ireland (although, I suppose, if the Irish are super-healthy, it could be the case). I've never been to Ireland and really want to go. Your data show that Ireland has more per capita beds than many other places I've been, and way more than enough to deal with CoVid as you've dealt with it.

We have 7400 ICU beds in California. Half of those are in or near Los Angeles (10 million people). We worried that would not be enough (it was enough - L.A. has approximately 3200 ICU units).

Ireland has really good life expectancy to begin with, but therefore more older people, which probably helps explain the overall mortality rate.

We're definitely not super healthy as a population alas. Lifestyle illnesses are on the rise here but yes overall we have a high life expectancy of about 82 on average. Most of our Covid-19 deaths have been in nursing homes and the vast majority of those elderly people would never have made it as far as a hospital or ICU. It's very sad.
Coronavirus: Care facilities have more than 62% of overall deaths

 

[Trino]

So 3 months from May isn't August?

(Response to another part of post.)
Second wave will gradually come IMO.
Interesting what Australia did. No travel between provinces. They had people stationed to stop travel. There, obviously, are too many roads in the US vs going across Australia, but the US made no attempts to really stop domestic travel.

 

[10ofRods]

Interesting timing as someone posted on our neighborhood Facebook questioning when it can be opened. They are going to have a board meeting to discuss. I'm staying away as I can see this is going to be such an issue and perhaps very divisive in the neighborhood!

My daughter sits on the Board of her HOA, and has set up a pool reservation system, so that only one household unit at a time can be there, for one hour slots. They're going to remove all the pool furniture and ask that people bring their own. My input was that pools have chlorine in them anyway, so not such a bad environment for kids and of course, everyone needs the sun.

They haven't voted on it yet, but as she's the only one who has taken an interest in trying to open it, I suspect this system will be the one they use.

We do live in a place where the overall case rate is just 4 people in 10,000, and only 2 new cases in the last 5 days (in nursing homes). There are a lot of older people in the complex, but in an informal survey of them, it turns out they are aware of risks and unlikely to want to use the pool, but would be able to reserve a time just for themselves, which they appreciate.

 

[musicaljoke]

I strongly have to agree here since there's no data that I'm aware of to predict whether infected children could have longterm health problems after contracting the virus.

My best childhood friend had strep throat (streptococcal bacteria) when we were about age 9-10 that developed into Rheumatic Fever. It caused permanent damage to her heart and onset of cluster headaches and she was never the same after that.

Unlike strep throat, I know Rheumatic Fever is not contagious but my point is that we don't know enough about this virus that's affected the entire world to put children at risk when delaying entry for 90+ more days could make a big difference. MOO

Right on. You need to hang your message from a flag pole. Let's figure this out before sending kids into the line of fire.

 

[tresir2012]

Glad to see Gov Inslee promoting a controversial inquiry, but I'm disappointed that he's been silent on several clinical trials at Univ of WA where enrollment plummeted when volunteers were scared off coronavirus drugs first promoted by the President -- although the fears are unwarranted. MOO

Fewer than 260 volunteers, out of a target of 2,000, have signed up for a $9.5 million UW study being conducted in Seattle and six other sites across the country. Another multi-site project coordinated by the UW has only about 30 patients enrolled. [..]

Barnabas and other researchers say the potential risks of the drugs have been exaggerated in the heated political controversy ignited when Trump first began promoting them. Critics of the president blasted him for touting unproven medications, while his supporters have accused scientists of cover-ups and conspiracies. [..]

“We have decades of experience with this drug,” he said. “It’s one of the few drugs approved for use during pregnancy and for lactating women.” [..]

Enrollment has also slowed in O’Neill’s study, which is focused on testing hydroxychloroquine’s ability to protect people who work in high-risk settings, like hospitals, nursing homes and prisons, from infection. The project was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which is interested in inexpensive drugs that might be used to fight COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, in developing countries.

O’Neill’s team has given hydroxychloroquine to about 1,700 people so far, with no serious side effects, he said.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/clinical-trial-enrollment-plummets-as-volunteers-are-scared-off-coronavirus-treatment-pushed-by-trump/

<modsnip: removed political commentary> This was not an unsafe, untested drug by the sound of it.