AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

[Nvgirl]

So do know if blue chip computer had cameras?

 

[Dr. Know?]

What angle was Office Max's camera facing the area? I never heard from the local who was going that way...2 or so weeks ago.

I'll check tomorrow.

 

[cluciano63]

I don't think LE has ever officially named Lisa Irwin's case a homicide, have they? If so, I missed it. I know the warrants said they the cadaver dog hit in the bedroom. So if they didn't/don't call it a homicide, I guess the same could be going on here. JMO

 

[johnQpublic]

So do know if blue chip computer had cameras?

even without a camera just standing outback while waiting for a pc to runs diags or something a person could peer over in that direction... no I don't know if they have a cam or not but After just watching the NG clip of moore security its interesting to note the Office Max does have a camera that can see the Celis' property fairly well also.

 

[Pensfan]

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15


I was told this in the previous thread by AZlawyer. I specifically asked how long the no contact orders were for. 90 days unless he wants to fight it.

In my state CPS doesn't give the parent a specific time. Arizona's CPS may be similar. When the parent completes their safety plan, CPS will review their progress, parenting class attendance, drug screens, psych evaluations and THEN decide if it is safe for that person to be around the child again. CPS can randomly decide (no set rules) if they want that parent to get supervised visits, unsupervised visits, or zero visits when the safety plan is in place.

Pensfan
verified psychiatric mental health nurse

 

[Nvgirl]

I thought somebody said office max was closed down on another thread. Not sure but it just has to happen to be probably NO CAMERAS on that night on that house. Sad story!

 

[Prof]

THe best camera view would be from the OM about 50 yards (a guess) from the Celis backyard?

Here's a possible scenario...(albeit a late night scenario) Maybe someone from that OM mall next door was watching Isa on surveilance, watching her for weeks play in her backyard. The week before the perp planned to take her, the perp befriended the dogs letting them loose, and the perp made sure to have changed the cameras' view just enough to not capture what perp was about to do the next week. Then, the night before Isa went missing, the perp stayed late a few hours after the store (any store) closed to scope out just who might be walking around or awake by around 1:30 am, the time he planned to take her the next night. This perp would be the shadowy figure in the mistaken date surveilance we were given. This perp made sure that the closest cameras, the ones that would show the Celis backyard, were pointed elsewhere for the night in question. I really don't think this is what happened, but it is a possibility.

The odd thing is that there were cameras in the church parking lot, cameras in the mall directly next door's parking lot, and then of course Moore Security a block away, and none of them seem to have caught the crime taking place.

 

[Prof]

I thought somebody said office max was closed down on another thread. Not sure but it just has to happen to be probably NO CAMERAS on that night on that house. Sad story!

No, the OM is not closed down.
It is still open.
They have cameras that run after store closes for the day.

 

[johnQpublic]

Alrighty Folks... unfortunately for me it's that time again to get some sleep... So time to do that one really productive thing that can help break this case wide open and aide in finding Isabel and thats get my prayers done. I have faith she is gonna be found alive, no matter how much digging we see or how bad it looks... This could all be a wild goose chase... Night Folks

 

[GrainneDhu]

ok, have to ask - has the neighbor that "heard the male voices" been backed up by anyone else? Have there been any other neighbors that heard the barking dogs?

From the google shot - looks like there are 4 houses pretty close together. I can hear dogs barking WAAAYYYYY down the street from me and pretty much pick out which house it's coming from during the night when it's quiet. Do we have any other neighbor corroboration on the male voices or dogs barking other than the neighbor who seems to know all about the Celis'?

It concerns me that the majority of theories here are based on statements from 1 neighbor who seems to be really interested in getting her 15 min of fame. Correct me/forgive me if I'm wrong and there is corroboration, on screen or off from someone else to support all these. It'd make me feel better about things.

What if there were no male voices, no barking dogs, no speculation of cartels? Where would we start our theories?? Could be we're not getting anywhere because we've veered way off course by going the way some lady pointed down the road instead of reading the signs...

:couch:

just looking for Isabel lease:

I'm confused as to why this neighbour seems to have so much credibility.

For one thing, sound bounces around in an environment with lots of hard surfaces like concrete, adobe and masonry.

I know someone in Santa Fe whose neighbours kept making complaints about her dogs barking. The person I knew was absolutely certain that it wasn't her dogs but the neighbours insisted the barking came from her yard.

My friend was facing big fines (hundreds of dollars), so she ran a little experiment. She smuggled her dogs out of the house and to a boarding kennel for two weeks. She had the boarding kennel keep track of her visits and verify that she never took her dogs off the grounds.

The neighbours kept right on complaining.

When she went to court, she introduced the boarding kennel receipt and the statements of the kennel operators. She was found not guilty.

Then the neighbours accused her of recording her dogs barking, then playing it through her stereo at top volume with the speakers pressed against her windows facing them. These people were relentless.

The person I knew finally sold her house and moved to an acreage outside of town, which had been her dream anyway.

The very first offer on her property? A laughable low ball offer from the very same neighbours! She immediately raised the asking price on the house by $20K and got it (from someone who was not the neighbours).

Something I'd like to know about the neighbour is how often is she woken by barking dogs? How often does she hear male voices outside her window? And does she know that neighbourhood rumour has it that she's involved with the cartels?

 

[liz b.]

Logical, intelligent post. Thank you.



By accident, do you mean accident in the course of abuse? Because it is not that easy to unintentionally kill a child that age via negligence, at least when compared with a baby or toddler. Kids that age don't get rolled over on during the night, or drink tons of drain cleaner, or fall of a changing table, etc., ya' know?



:fireworks::welcome::fireworks:

About the proof of income thing. That is common. The actual term on the docket is "failure to provide evidence of financial responsibility". That simply means he was uninsured and thus cannot show that he has the financial ability to cover injuries or damages to another person or vehicle he may be involved in an accident with. That's all that means.

Sergio's criminal history is mostly just driving violations. Nothing too major. He did get a DUI but the "drugs,vapors" thing doesn't mean he was guilty of all. It is just a general label that means he was pulled over and assessed by LE to be under the influence of alcohol, OR drugs, OR some kind of "huffing" substance like glue or whatever.

His DUI charge was dismissed which some think indicates something sinister. It doesn't. My law partner does hundreds of DUI cases each year. He gets loads of them dismissed. It can be easy to do, depending on the circumstances. (Blood alcohol levels being on the margin, timing of test, etc.).



I have no reason to think the neighbor is lying. But, she could be mistaken or what she observed meant little. She could be off on the time, as she was asleep when awakened by the noise and could have been groggy. Or, it could simply have been laborers in the alley.

I think Isa was gone before her mom woke up. I think Isa was taken from that house before then. The neighbor's info is important but may not be relevant. :moo:



I think that's standard practice. they want to know, did the child make any statements about someone bothering her? Did she make any weird statements about going on a trip? Did she or any of her friends notice someone staring or following? I don't see anything but standard practice in regards to that.



:fireworks2::welcome4::fireworks2:

Accident as in : either she got into someone's drug stash,and accidently overdosed.Or an accident caused by roughousing with her brother(s). There just has to be a good reason why LE concentrated on her bedroom,and the boy's room...MOO SC never said where Isabel actually went after she walked by him that night. He never said she went into her own bedroom.

But I don't think this was an accident.... JMO

 

[Okay then]

First accurate Headline I have seen to date RE: "Abduction".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ce-say-time-TAKEN-home.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Maybe the Press Conference will clear things up?

 

[pieper4]

I thought somebody said office max was closed down on another thread. Not sure but it just has to happen to be probably NO CAMERAS on that night on that house. Sad story!

Office Max is still open. Circuit City in the same strip mall is closed.

 

[GrainneDhu]

It's been hugely unpopular to post this, and I have received a smackdown for even suggesting it, but to me, it is far more likely that this was an inside job engineered as some sort of way to make money rather than an outside cartel abduction.

I'll repeat what was reported weeks ago: LE was interviewing the kids' friends to see what they might have been discussing in the week before Isa went missing. I thought that was interesting and potentially significant.

This is not intended as a smackdown.

I think it's standard operating procedure in cases of suspected child abduction for the child's friends and schoolmates to be interviewed. LE wants to know if there was anyone new or unexplained for the environment hanging around and children are part of the environment.

What would be potentially significant if LE were focusing on a particular vehicle or a particular time in the interviews. But one hopes that parents whose children were interviewed would be smart enough to keep their child out of the press and keep their mouths shut about the LE interviews, so as not to endanger the investigation.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Combining ideas from two different posters.

If one takes the odds on a particular investigative path via counting the number of officers involved in investigating that path, then it's clear that nonfamily abduction is rated 3-4 times more likely than a family abduction (4 officers investigating the family, 12-14 investigating nonfamily abduction).

 

[Prof]

Here is a video from JVM on surveilance in the neighborhood

Surveillance camera on Celis home? - YouTube!

 

[pieper4]

That clip is so spliced it's not useful to me personally. They keep showing another home; refer to a home with a camera, yet have nothing to prove the video they are showing is from that home (or anywhere else aside from a helicopter or LE or news teams).

Bombshell fizzles here, sorry. How I dislike that whole "news" approach. :-(

 

[Okay then]

Combining ideas from two different posters.

If one takes the odds on a particular investigative path via counting the number of officers involved in investigating that path, then it's clear that nonfamily abduction is rated 3-4 times more likely than a family abduction (4 officers investigating the family, 12-14 investigating nonfamily abduction).

Any math whizzes here? I am thinking 12-14 for all the external...verses 4 for Family, SC, RC, JM, and the kids... (did I forget a family member) is telling percentage/statistic wise. jmo

 

[Prof]

Which clip? nevermind...

Yeah, the media most likely do not know which house had the camera. LE is reallly not giving any source any exclusives in this case.
LE will not identify the house that has this camera...I do think I remember LE stating there was a house with a surveilance camera very close, though, so the media did not make up that part, anyway...erm.. as far as I know.

 

[Nvgirl]

One thing that keeps coming back to me is why did LE say "don't read to much into this" about cps? That is significant to me. Unless he is trying to redirect the public.