Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #17

[badgersmythe]

Coronavirus: How many coronavirus cases are there where you live?


For those of us in U.K.

 

[Amonet]

Coronavirus live updates: stock markets plunge on global recession fears
''China’s excessive coronavirus public monitoring could be here to stay
Over the last two months, Chinese citizens have had to adjust to a new level of government intrusion.

Over the last two months, Chinese citizens have had to adjust to a new level of government intrusion. Photograph: Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.

Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.

State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures.''

Someone said on here about a week ago "get back to me when oil gets to $30"

I just saw that Brent is at $31. Didn't check WTI but recently Brent has been higher than WTI.

 

[Amonet]

100 in 2-3 weeks? People are so optimistic that this virus is slow moving.
13 cases today should be about 35 in two days, 80 in about 5 days.

However, following the rule of "no testing" will help keep numbers down.

Low rates of testing won't keep the fatality rates down, they're more likely to make them appear inflated.

We're going to find out the figures eventually when the epidemiologists can see the bigger picture in the rear view mirror.

 

[Amonet]

What IS the real mortality rate ? Most of the countries are reporting confirmed cases, not counting those on a waiting list for testing. It's a numbers game, governments are afraid of business and economic impact.

No one can know what is the 'real' mortality rate as right now it's based mostly on hospitalised cases who have then gone on to die in hospital. So the numbers are probably missing a lot of people who never got hospitalised/tested, and maybe some deaths at home weren't correctly attributed as Covid-19 related.

The apparent fatality rates are going to differ in different places and at different points on the curve, imho. If a country gets millions of cases and their hospitals can't cope, I think that will lead to temporarily higher death rates until the cases come back down.

The Diamond Princess ship has had about 1%, and it's easier to see the fatality rate there as it's a closed number of people, so you reach a fixed maximum number of cases for that particular outbreak, and then three or four weeks later you have your final fatality count, and you can get a fairly solid set of numbers the overall fatality rate within that group of infected people.

But anywhere else right now we don't have that closed group. We've got cases still rising, and we don't know how many of today's confirmed cases are going to turn out, and some of that is going to depend on whether there's a large outbreak in a hospital or elder care home, or if it's in a university with 18-25 year olds dominating the count, and whether a hospital has 5 confirmed infections or 500 to treat at one time.

They can do cohort studies as this goes on, but we have to wait for the entire cohort to reach the conclusion of their illness, which means waiting about 4 to 6 weeks for the results to make it into the journals.

 

[margarita25]

“Public Health – Seattle & King County urges King County residents to follow guidance to reduce the risk of COVID-19 in our community. Together, we may potentially impact the spread of the disease in our community. Public Health is reporting 12 new cases today. The official case count is 83.”

Update: King County COVID-19 case numbers for March 8, 2020 - King County

—/

King County has confirmed cases of novel coronavirus and more cases have been identified in the U.S. It's important that everyone take steps to reduce the spread of novel coronavirus. Find out more about COVID-19 and our ongoing response.”

 

[margarita25]

They say what doesn’t kill us only makes us stronger...

 

[margarita25]

Current numbers for WA state from: Novel Coronavirus Outbreak 2020 :: Washington State Department of Health

Total Tests

Negative 1,100
Positive 136

Age of positive cases
0 to 19 years 3
20 to 29 years 6
30 to 39 years 13
40 to 49 years 17
50 to 59 years 19
60 to 69 years 27
70 to 79 years 13
80+ years 27
Unknown 11

Sex at Birth
Female 70
Male 51
Unknown 15

Note: This data is changing rapidly as labs conduct tests and discover new cases. Labs will then assign those cases to a county. At that point, counties or the Department of Health determine the appropriate county of jurisdiction. Those don’t always match initially. We’re currently working to reduce the “unassigned” number to 0.

136 is x percent of 1100, subject to change at any time of course

%/100= is/of

Ps I recommend this frozen fruits thing...zzz goodnight

 

[zecats]

Richard Engel is On Assignment covering the story of the coronavirus. It is on MSNBC. An hour program.....well done.

I watched him on Morning Joy as she simultaneously did a story with him. He’s in London I believe. Good reporting by them both. IMO

 

[zecats]

It was stupid. But I really had to go and didn’t realize someone was in there. Or that the toilet would have those high powered flushers.

When ya gotta go, you know?

I used a porta-potty yesterday for same reasons. I did carry my Lysol wipe with me and did not touch the door or a single thing inside. I considered it a successful, quick- moving mission.

 

[badgersmythe]

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson to hold emergency Cobra meeting PM to hold emergency coronavirus meeting

I’m anxious to hear what these measures may be.

 

[Amonet]

I just had a great idea, not sure if being implemented, maybe/surely it is, (don’t call me Shirley), mobile labs...

Key word, “mobile”.

I’m going back to the empty street of Wuhan videos as I visualize this..

Doc T’:...we must take this opportunity to really learn what we can from China...

I think it’s very important to post videos of early days, because really it is like “evidence” we normally long for as websleuthers, furthermore cont.,

Iirc, there’s a quote about Wuhan, going back for quote...and NY and a London I posted in thread 1..noting

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Yes population density

Can we please for reference have comparison on population density for

W vs LA
W vs Seattle
W vs NYC
ETC

Cont

—-

Lemme get on that.


—

Editing typos

—-
Okay, this may sound alarmist, but jumping off what I was trying to say earlier:

We as WSers, this is where we have “our evidence”. It is what has happened to date around the world. We have China, Italy, S. Korea to study...as WHO leaders said about Wuhan they are the sacrifical data.

The difference is we have had a lot of time to prepare, and this is the United States...

Before we go into that,

How are our British friends doing? I suspect numbers aren’t looking good right now, let’s take a look.

I completely agree with you on this. I already worked out that for population the sizes of Wuhan to Hubei are fairly equivalent to London to UK. So I fail to see why what happened with Wuhan under extreme quarantine measures is not a reasonable scenario for the UK under more moderate social distancing measures.

I think the government is going to be looking more into which measures China took that might have the most effect on reducing the R0 and trying to quantify the effects of various measures as to their potential effect on the R0 vs disturbance to lives and livelihoods.

I'm also very concerned about the stories coming from hospitals in Italy, especially considering they haven't peaked yet and are currently nowhere near the peak numbers in Hubei.

I am curious how much of a model for the UK that Washington State might be as their seeding event seems to have occurred earlier than any in the UK, so I am concerned that their figures might be our figures in a week or two.

 

[Amonet]

Anxiety in an aging Congress as coronavirus marches across U.S.

Not sure if this has been posted. As expected, Congress is getting nervous given their wide exposure to the public.

Exacerbated, I’m sure, with the announcements that Sen. Cruz and Rep. Gosar are isolating due to exposure to the same positive patient.

I wonder what they will do if staff start refusing to come to work. Every office I know of has open door policy so constituents can access their Members of Congress

Perhaps it's time for cross-party agreement on no more shaking of hands at events with either other politicians or with the public?

 

[Henry2326]

It does feel surreal. I can’t believe this is happening to the world.

Even worse, some in the world don't know its happening.

 

[Amonet]

What’s up with Texas? Noting to go back to San Antonio...how’s Houston doing? Any cases in Dallas.

Note for reference purposes, there has been so much posted in the early threads, which I think is going to be valuable reference going forward..of course, right now I’m in real time and had to skip a million posts but do know the data exists.

• It is to be noted that CV to my knowledge can be definitely traced back to early Dec, we are are 3.5 months out.
Dec. 1st is the date I’m issuing... @dixiegirl1035?

Noticeable outbreaks started in Wuhan on X date...

Guys what are the earliest reports from Dr. WL? What are the dates in those.

There was an in depth YT video I posted and mentioned that had a lot about the “chats”....

Some answers could lie in things we have posted to date as far as looking ahead.

Thankfully we have preparedness, certain containment measures but judging from some reactions so far, it IS going to be hard to control the US public as we anticipated moo.

So “quarantine”, “containment”, these recommended and required measures aren’t going to work.

So...

After weeks of listening to Doc T and Dr. Mike talk about “Containment vs. Mitigation”...I recall Doc T using the word “balance”...

“Containment & Mitigation”. This has been a few chapters in WHO conferences.

Please excuse typos / correcting

—-

Musing:
Maybe Mexico should build wall against us and I’m not even kidding.

I'm sorry for not knowing the exact position or name, but I read today of a US 'political' person, high up, saying that the US has it contained.

Contained in what sense? My understanding of containment of an epidemic is that you have falling numbers and just a few pockets where you can do the ring containment contact tracing.

I don't interpret a rising epidemic as 'contained'. Using that word is something I think might lead to a false sense of security. I know it's not the time for panicking, I know that even in Washington State or NYC each individual still has a fairly low likelihood of coming into contact (within 2 metres for 15 minutes or more) with a person who is infected and infectious. I totally agree with politicians putting that across to the public.

I also don't think they should make out that it's 'contained' if it is still likely to spread for a while and the numbers continue to increase for a while.

I would say the rest of the world would be shocked if they were reading here about the Covid-19 related happenings in the US. We all assumed that the wealthiest country on the planet, the number 1 country on the planet, would be ahead of the rest as regards testing. The UK seems to have started testing pneumonia patients who haven't been abroad or in direct known contact with a confirmed cases. The USA seems to be weeks behind all this.

I have criticism for the UK government, too. The testing numbers seem a lot better, but I wonder if the government is doing a good job of communicating the situation. I don't see how in a middling to worst case scenario the chancellor of the exchequer can hold up to his promise that the NHS can have anything it needs. Can it have a million more nurses and doctors, and 100,000 icu beds? No. All I ask is that he puts it in more realistic terms that they will give the NHS all the support that they actually can give, and that they will go the extra mile in taking this as a serious threat to try and make the effects be less than they otherwise might be. I believe they will try and do that, but I'd rather they said it that way rather than making promises they can't keep.

We made so many excuses as to why what happened in Hubei couldn't happen here (USA, UK). I don't believe those excuses hold water. They're comforting to tell ourselves but I don't see them being valid. China's hospitals aren't rubbish. Their doctors and nurses aren't rubbish. Our hospitals are great too, and awesome staff in them. I believe it's the same in Italy. And yet with cases still climbing they're trying to use corridors as ICU for seriously ill and infectious patients. This isn't just a bad evening in the ER in a bad flu season with icy roads and pavements, this is 24/7 for them until the peak is well down.

 

[Amonet]

Video about exponential growth. Easy to understand.

I don't have time to watch that right now (I should be doing other things!) I am really glad/grateful you found that.

Exponential growth makes it so essential to catch an epidemic and nip it in the bud early. If the contact tracing has been missing infected people with only 100 known cases, how many will it miss when there are 1000 case and contacts to track down? What about with 1000, or 10,000? If you still have the same number of staff doing the contact tracing, there's a limit on what they can do, and the effectiveness of their hard work is surely going to be reduced as the number of cases rises?

 

[Amonet]

I must admit, I haven't read every page. Does anyone know for certain if people are able to get it more than once, or do you have an immunity after you have it one time? Thank you very much to anyone who knows the official answer. MOO. Katt

I don't think anyone has a definitive answer to that yet. I think they will learn the answer over time but right now all they can do is watch what happens and make notes on it, and share the information in the medical journals as they collect it.

Some people seem to be testing positive for a long time after their fever and worst symptoms have gone, but they can test negative twice and then test positive again on the third attempt. Who knows if they have enough virus in them still to be about to spread the virus?

I've heard that with coronaviruses that cause colds, the body finds it hard to hold onto the immunity after recovering from the cold. No one knows if this particular coronavirus will be the same or if we can hold the immunity for longer. I think we have to hope that when vaccines are developed that we'll at least be able to hold the immunity for a year and then perhaps we'll end up needing a Covid-19 jab when we go for our yearly flu jab (those who have the flu jab).

 

[Henry2326]

SYDNEY, March 9 (Reuters) - Two Sydney high schools closed on Monday after three students tested positive for COVID-19 as health authorities ramped up preparations for a larger outbreak with the number of infections in Australia exceeding 80.
@Swatisays
Vincent Lee on Twitter

Reuters: St Patrick's Marist College Dundas in the city's northwest will remain shut on Tuesday after two year-10 students were diagnosed with coronavirus. Willoughby Girls High School in north Sydney also closed from Monday after a year-7 pupil tested positive.
Vincent Lee on Twitter

 

[Henry2326]

France bans large gatherings as coronavirus toll rises France bans large gatherings as coronavirus toll rises Reuters on Twitter

 

[Amonet]

"The new coronavirus causes little more than a cough if it stays in the nose and throat, which it does for the majority of people unlucky enough to be infected. Danger starts when it reaches the lungs.

One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications, while 6% become critical. These patients typically suffer failure of the respiratory and other vital systems, and sometimes develop septic shock, according to a report by last month’s joint World Health Organization-China mission."​

Coronavirus symptoms: The progression from moderate to severe can occur 'very, very quickly'

That seems to make sense, and maybe younger people don't have as many of the ACE2 things lower down so it's less likely to go down to their lower lungs? Maybe?

But respiratory things that hit the nose and throat seem to be infectious? So I think there's a big question in whether those with milder symptoms like those can spread the virus while they're carrying on with normal life and not feeling very bad at all? I guess that will take more studies of households and what symptoms each person has, along with which one started feeling even mild symptoms...whether the mild cases were always getting it from the more severely symptomatic or if it was sometimes the mildly affected person in the household who got it first and then other people in the household got more severe cases?

I really think this is something that governments need to know so that they can make better decisions about school closures and whether or not it's okay to combine classes into larger groups if there's a staff shortage due to teachers in self-isolation or actually infected.

 

[Henry2326]

US oil prices have crashed as much as 27% to a four-year low of $30 a barrel, as traders brace for Saudi Arabia to flood the market with crude in a bid to recapture market share. Oil prices crash by most since 1991 as Saudi Arabia launches price war - CNN