Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #58

[SoCalDavidS]

I hate being right. It's still possible I'm overreacting. One can hope.

Weeks ago, I had joked to myself that after being locked down for a long period, things were going to improve. Proving that the quarantine was effective. I said to myself that this would be the time people would start rushing out to try and get everything back to normal, which would make me want to quarantine at least a few weeks longer, until I could determine which way the wind would blow.

I feel like that period is just now beginning, so I probably will not change any of my habits too much through most of June, and perhaps it won't be as bad as projected on the sites I trust. For the moment I view it as a 1 in 3 chance things will improve. The other possibilities are the deaths remain consistent at their current levels (my prediction), or the more pessimistic outcome is they get worse, and the national #'s begin to rise towards a 2nd, higher peak than what we had in recent weeks.

 

[CSIDreamer]

You. said (to Mickey):

//I think you're just missing all the updates saying just that. Call the hotline.//

I took "call the hotline" to mean you were telling Mickey to, well, "call the hotline" while the two of you were discussing suicide.

Did I misunderstand? Why type that?

No one should just "call the hotline" unless in distress. Maybe you thought Mickey needed that advice? I guess I didn't see that kind of cry for help here.

You completely misunderstood, you may have missed an up arrow in the comments between Mickey and myself. I told Mickey I see the updates here. "Call the hotline".

For clarification "here" is referring to where I live, not WS. "Call the hotline" means that information and direction regarding mental health issues and emergencies is being given "here".

 

[Sundog]

My kids are NOT fine with on-line teaching. And neither am I fine with paying the bills for it at the regular tuition rate/salaries. jmo

Yes, this is the response by students across the country, and many of them are moving forward with class action lawsuits for partial refunds of their tuition and fees paid, as they didn't pay for online university.

Whether I agree with it or not, and I am at risk due to age and medical condition, plans are for most universities to move forward with opening campuses in the fall. At our university, the planning is for blended/hybrid models for classes that have over 50 students, and in-person classes if less than 50, with social distancing in those classes. For faculty who are not ready to come back to campus to teach in-person classes, the university is requiring that they apply for ADA reasonable accommodation if they have a medical condition that puts them more at risk for a more severe response to coronavirus infection, or they can go on FMLA for 90 days (Family and Medical Leave Act). Academic administrators can do the same, as can other professional staff and support staff.

I found it interesting that the president of California State University, Long Beach, in a letter to her campus, mentioned that 12% of faculty and staff at their campus are over 65. I thought it would be a higher percentage on most campuses, but if it is only 12%, then I see why they can't keep the campus closed for just those employees.

I am not happy with some of the directions campuses are taking to reopen, but I understand that students and parents who pay our bills have concerns about the academic experience they are paying for. Also, many universities wouldn't survive without students living in their residence halls on campus. Already they are facing huge budget deficits. Our university is doing partial furloughs and salary reductions right now to address a budget deficit of $20 million by June 30, 2020, due to coronavirus issues. For the next fiscal year which begins on July 1, 2020 and ends June 30, 2021, we are having to make permanent cuts as the projected budget deficit based on enrollments, etc., will be about $40 million. Our tenured faculty are represented by collective bargaining, so we are offering a voluntary early retirement incentive buyout. And we are not renewing contracts with our lecturers who are not represented by a union.
We are also laying off some professional staff, and really gutting our custodial staff. It's a very difficult situation for universities across the country.

 

[10ofRods]

I hate being right. It's still possible I'm overreacting. One can hope.

Weeks ago, I had joked to myself that after being locked down for a long period, things were going to improve. Proving that the quarantine was effective. I said to myself that this would be the time people would start rushing out to try and get everything back to normal, which would make me want to quarantine at least a few weeks longer, until I could determine which way the wind would blow.

I feel like that period is just now beginning, so I probably will not change any of my habits too much through most of June, and perhaps it won't be as bad as projected on the sites I trust. For the moment I view it as a 1 in 3 chance things will improve. The other possibilities are the deaths remain consistent at their current levels (my prediction), or the more pessimistic outcome is they get worse, and the national #'s begin to rise towards a 2nd, higher peak than what we had in recent weeks.

I predicted 96,000 deaths in the US by 5-23. That's tomorrow.

For whatever reason, many of the reporting sites have no data for today but yesterday was 97,456 (approximate). So I was just a touch optimistic.

But I do think, that unless new data show something different, we're going to be stuck at about 1000-1500 deaths a day for a while. Could go higher, unlikely to go below 900 for at least another month - probably longer.

 

[firebird]

I hate being right. It's still possible I'm overreacting. One can hope.

Weeks ago, I had joked to myself that after being locked down for a long period, things were going to improve. Proving that the quarantine was effective. I said to myself that this would be the time people would start rushing out to try and get everything back to normal, which would make me want to quarantine at least a few weeks longer, until I could determine which way the wind would blow.

I feel like that period is just now beginning, so I probably will not change any of my habits too much through most of June, and perhaps it won't be as bad as projected on the sites I trust. For the moment I view it as a 1 in 3 chance things will improve. The other possibilities are the deaths remain consistent at their current levels (my prediction), or the more pessimistic outcome is they get worse, and the national #'s begin to rise towards a 2nd, higher peak than what we had in recent weeks.

I was shocked to learn that, per the CDC today, there have been approximately 3500 covid deaths (counting the CDC way) out of of 39.5 million people in California. The odds of anyone dying of this in California are infinitesimal.

 

[firebird]

Yes, this is the response by students across the country, and many of them are moving forward with class action lawsuits for partial refunds of their tuition and fees paid, as they didn't pay for online university.

Whether I agree with it or not, and I am at risk due to age and medical condition, plans are for most universities to move forward with opening campuses in the fall. At our university, the planning is for blended/hybrid models for classes that have over 50 students, and in-person classes if less than 50, with social distancing in those classes. For faculty who are not ready to come back to campus to teach in-person classes, the university is requiring that they apply for ADA reasonable accommodation if they have a medical condition that puts them more at risk for a more severe response to coronavirus infection, or they can go on FMLA for 90 days (Family and Medical Leave Act). Academic administrators can do the same, as can other professional staff and support staff.

I found it interesting that the president of California State University, Long Beach, in a letter to her campus, mentioned that 12% of faculty and staff at their campus are over 65. I thought it would be a higher percentage on most campuses, but if it is only 12%, then I see why they can't keep the campus closed for just those employees.

I am not happy with some of the directions campuses are taking to reopen, but I understand that students and parents who pay our bills have concerns about the academic experience they are paying for. Also, many universities wouldn't survive without students living in their residence halls on campus. Already they are facing huge budget deficits. Our university is doing partial furloughs and salary reductions right now to address a budget deficit of $20 million by June 30, 2020, due to coronavirus issues. For the next fiscal year which begins on July 1, 2020 and ends June 30, 2021, we are having to make permanent cuts as the projected budget deficit based on enrollments, etc., will be about $40 million. Our tenured faculty are represented by collective bargaining, so we are offering a voluntary early retirement incentive buyout. And we are not renewing contracts with our lecturers who are not represented by a union.
We are also laying off some professional staff, and really gutting our custodial staff. It's a very difficult situation for universities across the country.

Thank you for all of that first hand information about the thinking going on at universities. Much appreciated

 

[jjenny]

I hate being right. It's still possible I'm overreacting. One can hope.

Weeks ago, I had joked to myself that after being locked down for a long period, things were going to improve. Proving that the quarantine was effective. I said to myself that this would be the time people would start rushing out to try and get everything back to normal, which would make me want to quarantine at least a few weeks longer, until I could determine which way the wind would blow.

I feel like that period is just now beginning, so I probably will not change any of my habits too much through most of June, and perhaps it won't be as bad as projected on the sites I trust. For the moment I view it as a 1 in 3 chance things will improve. The other possibilities are the deaths remain consistent at their current levels (my prediction), or the more pessimistic outcome is they get worse, and the national #'s begin to rise towards a 2nd, higher peak than what we had in recent weeks.

Trying to figure out what was the point of the quarantine if we just going to open everything up. We are going to end right back where we started. The numbers are going to take off.

 

[10ofRods]

CoVid Economy:

Hertz files for bankruptcy.

 

[10ofRods]

Trying to figure out what was the point of the quarantine if we just going to open everything up. We are going to end right back where we started. The numbers are going to take off.

Well, it was to slow it down. Give time for varied responses. The fact that so many are now eager to do things they didn't usually do before CoVid (flock in huge numbers to obscure trails and beaches, where I am) has not helped (so no real shutdown). Only businesses, small and large, hurt.

Meantime, we have to figure out what to do about nursing homes and education (on which we do not appear to making tons of progress).

My faith in fellow humans is now at a low ebb, and I won't be going back to regular retail or restaurants any time soon. We did not have a real plan and this is the result. No blame going particularly anywhere, just feeling bleak tonight.

 

[jjenny]

Depends on how you define relevant, imo. I certainly think it is.

Covid is 20 times deadlier than the flu.
"New research shows that counted deaths from COVID-19 in mid-April were about 20 times greater than seasonal influenza counted deaths recorded during peak weeks of the past seven flu seasons."
Study Shows COVID-19 Body Count 20 Times Higher Than Seasonal Flu Deaths

 

[jjenny]

Well, it was to slow it down. Give time for varied responses. The fact that so many are now eager to do things they didn't usually do before CoVid (flock in huge numbers to obscure trails and beaches, where I am) has not helped (so no real shutdown). Only businesses, small and large, hurt.

Meantime, we have to figure out what to do about nursing homes and education (on which we do not appear to making tons of progress).

My faith in fellow humans is now at a low ebb, and I won't be going back to regular retail or restaurants any time soon. We did not have a real plan and this is the result. No blame going particularly anywhere, just feeling bleak tonight.

We did slow it down a bit, but we still have no vaccine, no nearly enough medication for everyone (remdesivir), and yet people seem to think that because lockdown is over, covid is over. All we did is to slow it down for a couple of months, with all the openings going on, many people refusing to wear masks, etc.

 

[firebird]

You can sue anybody for anything.

My daughter's sorority is refunding a proportionate share of her dues (for food and facilities as she doesn't live in the house this year) and insurance companies are voluntarily giving premium credits for miles not driven, just for example. They're not doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. They're doing because ...unjust enrichment.

 

[10ofRods]

I imagine you’ll lose your job. Schools won’t be doing online learning this fall. If you’re under 50 without medical conditions live your life. If your older shelter but the entire economy doesn’t need to be destroyed because people older than 50 have FOMO.

Nope - the entire system is going online (this is in California). And fall is already fully online and spring is likely to be as well.

Plus, I have a union. And tenure. And am the highest in seniority in my college.

Not to mention that I am 65, cannot be forced to retire and already have a disability.

So no, I won't be fired. Most teachers over 50 cannot and will not be fired. In California, anyway.

I am sheltering. But my point is that I also have a lot more income than an 18 year old. Or a 30 year old. I know what the disposal income stats are. And I won't be going to restaurants or retail.

"The entire economy" is not just retail and restaurants. It's also education.

As to K-12, it won't be much different. As I have posted many times, teachers whose kids have leukemia- they won't be in the classroom and they can avail themselves of various means to remain employed.

Believe it or not, doctors, nurses, teachers, therapists - we're all part of the economy too. About half of it.

 

[Sundog]

Trying to figure out what was the point of the quarantine if we just going to open everything up. We are going to end right back where we started. The numbers are going to take off.

In Ohio, the Governor made it clear that the stay-at-home order was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospital system. Now with the opening up, the goal is to quickly identify outbreaks/hot spots that develop within the state, and to isolate and do contact tracing. In addition, the "safer-at-home" order which we are now under in Ohio, is that just about everything has reopened, but people should continue to social distance when they go out, preferably wear a face mask or covering, and take care of their business and then go home. For people over 65 and/or with high risk conditions, they should self-isolate.

 

[jjenny]

In Ohio, the Governor made it clear that the stay-at-home order was to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the hospital system. Now with the opening up, the goal is to quickly identify outbreaks/hot spots that develop within the state, and to isolate and do contact tracing. In addition, the "safer-at-home" order which we are now under in Ohio, is that just about everything has reopened, but people should continue to social distance when they go out, preferably wear a face mask or covering, and take care of their business and then go home. For people over 65 and/or with high risk conditions, they should self-isolate.

And in OH, the numbers are going up. Do people really have to bowl at the time of coronavirus? All of the sudden state is acting as if everything is back to normal.

"With Ohio’s halting steps toward normalcy advancing amid an untamed pandemic, state health officials reported a higher-than-usual 731 coronavirus infections and an additional 55 deaths on Thursday."
Coronavirus in Ohio: Daily cases jump markedly as bowling alleys, banquet halls get OK to reopen

 

[10ofRods]

We did slow it down a bit, but we still have no vaccine, no nearly enough medication for everyone (remdesivir), and yet people seem to think that because lockdown is over, covid is over. All we did is to slow it down for a couple of months, with all the openings going on, many people refusing to wear masks, etc.

I couldn't agree more. Including the medicine (although there's one other anti-viral I've bookmarked).

The fact that there are no permanent changes in behavior is very troubling. No contact tracing (and I can think of so many ways that could be implemented).

My students, in February, after we started exploring viruses and pandemics in class, were extremely concerned and respectful about social distancing. I've had all my lectures up on line in text for 20 years. And all the tests are online too. But the ability to ask questions in person and the structure that goes into a college day are essential. We were studying mutations, so the virus fit right in. I think they will suffer from the lack of interaction with each other, especially - but we'll find ways to do that online.

I don't think all industries are going to go back to regular. Twitter et al., = work from home indefinitely. I have been told I can work from home for the rest of my employment days (age + already verified medical issues). I'm not worried about myself.

But, by gosh, I won't be support any businesses that don't require masks or social distancing and my little online boycott platform is a small effort (totally apart from WS of course), but it has been surprisingly effective. I'm just sad I may never be able to travel where I'd like to go - but we'll see. If Europe ever lets Americans back in, I think I'll continue to work on my research.

You take care, JJenny. I love your posts, we're kindred spirits.

 

[10ofRods]

And in OH, the numbers are going up. Do people really have to bowl at the time of coronavirus? All of the sudden state is acting as if everything is back to normal.

"With Ohio’s halting steps toward normalcy advancing amid an untamed pandemic, state health officials reported a higher-than-usual 731 coronavirus infections and an additional 55 deaths on Thursday."
Coronavirus in Ohio: Daily cases jump markedly as bowling alleys, banquet halls get OK to reopen

Yes - yes, they do "have" to bowl. And I get it, to a degree. Since this is a disease that isn't killing people until they're 50-60 and upwards, younger people have every reason to want to get antibodies right now. I hope it works out well for them. It's not an easy disease to have, even if you don't die.

But people go sky-diving and now they go bowling during CoVid. Ultimately, this may result in a real dip in people who go bowling and the bankruptcy of bowling alleys (because getting over CoVid takes so long, they won't feel as much like bowling and tons of bowlers are older people).

Several studies predict an average loss of 8 years of life expectancy for women and 9 for men. This includes predictions based on lasting health consequences of getting CoVid while under 50.

In the US, the average age isn't yet completely known, but looks to be 69. 55+ is where the curve starts to rise. The rest of the population is relatively safe.

In UK, Weatherspoons (Spoons) is going to require daily testing for employees, install plexiglass, social distance, require gloves and have hand sanitizer. Good for them. At least that's a response (from someone whose business tanked even before it was shut down by government).

Businesses don't realize that they can't survive without consumers (J.K. Galbraith - all of his work, as a citation, as well as Adam Smith).

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Apparently things are really starting to deteriorate in Brazil. Like REALLY beginning to fall apart.

They've now passed the other country doing a spectacular job, Russia, and are 2nd in cases Worldwide, behind the U.S. of course.

There are no masks to come by, hence, very few are wearing them. Poor living conditions, and a leader who is pushing for a return to normal, while the country is supposedly still weeks away from a peak.

There is no justice in the world.

 

[katydid23]

If there is no hope of recovery, there is no reason to give an unproven drug with known dangerous cardiovascular side effects. And by the way, read the article. Patients given the drug died at a higher rate than patients not given the drug. That CAN NOT be blamed on the virus alone.

There is always a slight hope of recovery, which is why last ditch efforts are often taken.

What about the many people who survived, and have sworn that this drug saved their life? Do you think it was a good thing they were given a chance by using this drug?

 

[Reasonable & Just]

80,000 flu deaths in 2018. 948.678 people have died in America this year. Why don’t the other 800K get a nightly count?

Could be because 96,329 dead in just about 2.5 months is more than 80,000 in about 3 months. Could also be because first responders and medical staff are in danger. I assume you know there is a flu vaccine, and that right now, there is not a vaccine for the virus that causes Covid-19. It is a novel virus. That's why people are making such a big deal about it. It's new, and we don't have a handle on vaccines or therapeutics just yet. I'm thinking there is a reason why the military originally banned (then rescinded a ban) on recruits who had been hospitalized. To my knowledge, they don't ban people hospitalized for the flu. And even with rescinding it, they are careful to state that they will screen for serious lung damage in these candidates.

So why all the fuss? It's not about drama. It's because it is new, seems to do some real damage to those who get it, and because we don't know all of its effects on the body, including what immunity to this particular virus looks like. We don't know how to treat it and we don't have a vaccine for it. It is not the flu.

Pentagon Rescinds Ban on COVID-Hospitalized Recruits
The ban on COVID-19 survivors joining up has lifted, but some cases could still be denied