Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #58

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CharlestonGal said:
I feel sorry for us in the States, too. We should have been able to get this right, but that ship sailed back in February. It's like putting toothpaste back in the tube at this point.
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Sadly the United States has handled this pandemic like a third world country--
from barely testing to barely contact tracing-
 
CharlestonGal said:
Well, for those 737 people their chances of dying turned out to be 100%.

737 is not just an inconsequential number. It's 737 people. 345,600 people worldwide. To blithely minimize those people's lives is the height of insensitivity.
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737 deaths from anything at any time in any state over several months time doesn't prevent anyone from doing anything...ever. It is inconsequential except for the people who die and their loved ones. As amply demontrated by the fact we generally don't get all wound up about it...also, ever. As one can see by the attendance at the speedway, beaches, restaurants, etc. attempted shaming based on surreality isn't having the desired effect. jmo
 
CoverMeCagney said:
It would be encouraging to see double figure deaths for the UK today or tomorrow. Last weeks 'low' figures on Sun/Mon were 170/160, the week before 268/210, week before that 315/288. Double figures might be a stretch but fingers crossed.
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Self quoting. It was 118. Getting there but must be patient... must be patient...
 
firebird said:
737 deaths from anything at any time in any state over several months time doesn't prevent anyone from doing anything...ever. It is inconsequential except for the people who die and their loved ones. As amply demontrated by the fact we generally don't get all wound up about it...also, ever. As one can see by the attendance at the speedway, beaches, restaurants, etc. attempted shaming based on surreality isn't having the desired effect. jmo
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Different strokes. *shrug*

Some are concerned about hundreds of thousands of people dying of contagion and some are concerned about dining out and getting a haircut.
 
"This study found that the analytical approach shows that the widely variable observed fatality rate is a function of the testing rate or the average tests performed per case.

The authors believe the true case fatality rate has a fixed value between 1-3% in most of the countries - Although they mention the accuracy of this simple mathematical approach could be improved further with additional parameters in future studies."

https://www.researchhub.com/paper/817131/summary
 
Tillicum said:
Advise please! We've been invited to our son and fiancee's for a cook out tomorrow. We could see our grandson, granddaughter and 2 soon to be grandsons who we haven't seen since late January. Fiancee's parents invited too who we haven't met yet. It would be outdoors with plenty of space for social distancing. Everyone there has followed strict guidelines for social distancing and masking, washing hands etc. I want to go soooo bad! We can take our own plates, utensils and pop. What do you think?
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I say no.
 
"May 22, 2020 — Is COVID-19 more deadly than the flu? It's a lot more deadly, concludes a new study by the University of Washington published May 7 in the journal Health Affairs. The study's results also project a grim future if the U.S. doesn't put up a strong fight against the spread of the virus.

The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

"COVID-19 infection is deadlier than flu -- we can put that debate to rest," said study author Anirban Basu, professor of health economics and Stergachis Family Endowed Director of the CHOICE Institute at the UW School of Pharmacy."

[...]

"The COVID-19 death rate, the study adds, means that if the same number of people in the U.S. are infected by the end of the year as were infected with the influenza virus -- roughly 35.5 million in 2018-2019 -- then nearly 500,000 people will die of COVID-19.

However, the novel coronavirus is more infectious than the influenza virus, Basu noted. So, a conservative estimate of 20% of the U.S. population becoming infected by the end of the year -- with the current trends in social distancing and health care supply continuing, while accounting for those infected who will recover asymptomatically -- could result in the number of deaths climbing to between 350,000 and 1.2 million.

"This is a staggering number, which can only be brought down with sound public health measures," Basu said."

Study Reports 'Staggering' 1.3% Death Rate in U.S. Among Those Infected Who Show Symptoms
 
10ofRods said:
Yeah, but you're in polite-land. On our first outing to a pick-up restaurant, it was only men in line. All were obeying the rules - except one (unmasked, furthermore). Tried to cut in line, didn't follow the rule about phoning in the order, kept cutting in front of people picking up their food in this tiny lobby space. One man asked him to go outside. He did, then came back in (in front of my husband, who was in the lobby space paying). Husband asked him to leave. Then I noticed the looks on the faces of all four masked men. Angry. We managed to leave before the homeless guy (a fixture in that shopping center) decided to wander in between my car and the next one and into the middle of the 5 men, 4 of whom looked SO angry but no one was saying anything. What I saw was a potential for yelling, no polite reminders.

I guess when idiots can't read others' faces, they may not pay heed - but frankly, here in SoCal there are a fairly large group of people who are intentionally antagonising others. At our only public gathering place, near a public building, yesterday about 40-50 were out, unmasked, and forcing other people to walk through their huddle just to get to a nearby bus stop (the people forced to this were elderly and/or with other signs of risk). The "protesters" were, except for 2-3, all pretty young. I understand why they don't care/don't think they can get it (and it's unlikely anyone was exposed yesterday), but all the yelling! The rudeness!

(SoCal didn't used to be this way - and I may add that all of the protesters looked white and middle class, judging by skin tone and sneakers).
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I just would not go thru this for a pick up takeaway meal. No way.
 
CharlestonGal said:
Things are finally looking really encouraging in France, too. I hope these downward trends continue and remain down. *fingers crossed*
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Thank you. Glad to see Europe finally dropping out of the top 10 of new cases and new deaths (with the exception of Russia, but we don't really want to count them as European anyway, soz Putin).
 
CharlestonGal said:
"May 22, 2020 — Is COVID-19 more deadly than the flu? It's a lot more deadly, concludes a new study by the University of Washington published May 7 in the journal Health Affairs. The study's results also project a grim future if the U.S. doesn't put up a strong fight against the spread of the virus.

The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

"COVID-19 infection is deadlier than flu -- we can put that debate to rest," said study author Anirban Basu, professor of health economics and Stergachis Family Endowed Director of the CHOICE Institute at the UW School of Pharmacy."

[...]

"The COVID-19 death rate, the study adds, means that if the same number of people in the U.S. are infected by the end of the year as were infected with the influenza virus -- roughly 35.5 million in 2018-2019 -- then nearly 500,000 people will die of COVID-19.

However, the novel coronavirus is more infectious than the influenza virus, Basu noted. So, a conservative estimate of 20% of the U.S. population becoming infected by the end of the year -- with the current trends in social distancing and health care supply continuing, while accounting for those infected who will recover asymptomatically -- could result in the number of deaths climbing to between 350,000 and 1.2 million.

"This is a staggering number, which can only be brought down with sound public health measures," Basu said."

Study Reports 'Staggering' 1.3% Death Rate in U.S. Among Those Infected Who Show Symptoms
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So are they saying 1.3% of the population (which is 13,000 per million) or 1.3% of the cases will die? The deaths per million on worldometers are only 295 at the moment so I am a little confused at these figures. They are predicting 35.5 million cases of CV19 ????
 
CoverMeCagney said:
Thank you. Glad to see Europe finally dropping out of the top 10 of new cases and new deaths (with the exception of Russia, but we don't really want to count them as European anyway, soz Putin).
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US is approaching 16,000 new cases today and it's only 5 pm. I guess it's better than the 30,000+ per day we were wracking up. But still. Depressing.
 
tresir2012 said:
So are they saying 1.3% of the population (which is 13,000 per million) or 1.3% of the cases will die? The deaths per million on worldometers are only 295 at the moment so I am a little confused at these figures. They are predicting 35.5 million cases of CV19 ????
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Yeah, they're predicting 35.5 million cases of CV19 by the end of the year. 1.3% of SYMPTOMATIC cases will die; not 1.3% of the 35.5 million cases.

ETA: Scratch that. The 35.5 million number is the number of cases of flu. The authors state CV19 is more infectious than flu, though, so they are estimating 20% infection rate from CV19 this year, which is actually 66 million people as compared to 35.5 million cases of flu. They don't say how many of those 66 million people will be symptomatic though, which is the 1.3% death rate they are talking about.
 
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