Elisa Lam - What Happened?

[findinganatta]

Here is something I'd like to have some feedback on... it's one of the basic facts of the case, but I'd like to hear if anyone disagrees with my take on it, or if I'm getting any of these facts wrong...

Yesterday was the first time I remember reading for certain that the water tank lids are hinged. I knew people said they were, but I had seen pictures of the tank without its lid (which I now presume was removed from the tank by the firefighters), so I wasn't positive. And I had a tendency to believe very few of the little facts people espoused, especially early on, because so many were false. So it was only yesterday when I happened to come upon police quotes that confirmed the hinge thing. Then I went and looked at pictures and realized you could make out the hinges on the other tanks if you look at close up shots.

Anyway, the reason I bring this up is because to me the closed lid was one of single biggest pieces of info the public has to help determine the likelihood of EL getting inside the tank herself versus being put in by someone else. When I was under the impression the lids were not hinged, it was very difficult to imagine it would be closed from inside, especially if you're in water. That was the single biggest thing that kept me on the fence about whether it was even possible she got in herself.

However, now the whole conflict between the possibility of her getting in herself and the lid being closed doesn't seem like much of a conflict at all. It becomes much easier to accept that someone could climb in without opening the lid all the way, and then letting it or having it slam closed behind them.

Regarding the idea of whether she would have wanted to close the lid behind her--which was another contentious aspect when people were theorizing about her climbing in--I personally feel that if someone was getting into a water cistern in the first place, they definitely aren't using normal logic. So in the context of that theory, their decisions are pretty much rendered non-factors in determining the likelihood of something like leaving the lid open or closed.

I'm bringing this up because it seemed to be one of the biggest points of contention regarding the possibility of her climbing in, but now I don't really see why that ever was (unless other people were also working off the idea that there weren't hinges).

The other major factor that was a problem for me with the climbing-in theory was her lack of clothes. Well, not so much the fact that she wasn't wearing clothes--anyone can remove their own clothes. It's more the issue of where the clothes are. But I've come to realize that the police have never said they didn't find them... or at least I've never read/heard them say that. There was a barrage of information in the beginning, much of it misinformation, so I've had to go back and sort of sort things out for myself. And while I've not necessarily cleared it all up yet, I'm pretty sure the clothes thing has never been outright verified, and I can imagine reasons why they might keep it secret even if they did find them somewhere... for instance, to help weed out any false confessions, or even to cover their own asses if they were found somewhere that was obvious enough that they should have been found earlier.

 

[findinganatta]

This is a crime sleuthing forum. If there are posts that someone feels are offensive or in violation of TOS, please notify a Mod and let them deal with it.

I agree. I was just getting concerned about when sleuthing turns away from reality and toward fantasy, and the potential implications of that. But that's not my call to make, and I don't believe any rules have been broken in that regard.

 

[noodled1]

findinganatta I've put the clothes out of my mind because we have no answer. The police have never said one way or the other so it's just speculation.

I've gone around with myself on the lid, could be hinged, could have been hinged but the hinge broke at some time or another, could have never been hinged. The one pic shows the lid completely off the tank how it ended up that way is more speculation.

One thought I always tell myself is that we know the roof had some traffic. The beer bottles and spray painting tell us the roof was no stranger to visitors. With that in mind a security guard could have been doing a roof top sweep and closed an open lid never thinking to investigate. Elisa could have closed it herself, if she was killed then obviously we'd have a good idea who closed it.

I've never had a problem with Elisa closing the lid herself, climbing into that tank for giggles would have been something I'd have done easily at her age. I did much worse all in the name of adventure...lol

 

[findinganatta]

snipped
With that in mind a security guard could have been doing a roof top sweep and closed an open lid never thinking to investigate. Elisa could have closed it herself, if she was killed then obviously we'd have a good idea who closed it.

I've never had a problem with Elisa closing the lid herself, climbing into that tank for giggles would have been something I'd have done easily at her age. I did much worse all in the name of adventure...lol

Very true about the variety of possibilities, such as the security guard thing. It's easy to hear a fact and make a mountain out of its implications, but real life is so complex and often arbitrary that you just don't know how relevant certain things really are.

As for climbing in for fun, I personally cannot fathom doing such a thing... especially not knowing if there is something dangerous inside, like a suction pipe. But I'm wimpy about those kinds of things. I was adventurous with drugs as a kid, which are just as dangerous, but I was a huge wimp when it came to heights, small spaces, etc Obviously Elisa had a much different personality, so there's no way of determining much other than either method of her getting into that tank is possible... by her own actions, or by someone else's.

I just can't wait for the tox results, because at least it will be some answers, and it could even lead to more public answers from investigators. I search Elisa on Google news every damn day.

 

[MissedItByThatMuch]

You touched on some of these points, but it seems to me that if the video is edited/pixelated for nefarious reasons, then a) multiple people (including higher-ups) at the hotel would have to be aware of it due to it's blatant nature (even if they were informed by the police after turning it in), and b) the police would have to be either going along with a cover-up or actively investigating the reasons why it's edited.

The police would notice, period. And they would also recognize that in the modern era, many others would notice if it is released to the public. So if they were involved, then releasing either a much shorter segment or stills from the video would have been the logical thing to do.

Which leads me to believe that the most reasonable explanation is that there are legitimate investigative reasons why it is edited, and we probably won't know what those are until the active investigation is complete (if ever).

I completely agree. This is a person's life, and it often feels like people online (not just on this site) are using it as part of an amateur detective role playing game that gets more and more and more fantastical as time goes on.

Your first paragraph is exactly what comes to mind in anyone's mind, which is what confused me from the start. That's one of the driving forces that led me here to get some help. I was hoping someone would start to lay out some possibilities, as well as some potential solutions, and, yes, the underlying implications do happen to oppose the ideas of some here, for example that she wasn't murdered, or that it wasn't an inside job, or whatever. <modsnip>

 

[Newton]

This is a crime sleuthing forum. If there are posts that someone feels are offensive or in violation of TOS, please notify a Mod and let them deal with it.

I agree. I haven't read all of the snuff stuff or the more outlandish conspiracy conjecture but I don't think it was written with the intent to malign EL's character. Because the forum asks, "What happened", it reasons that speculation and suggested possibilities would follow. Maybe I skipped over the posts where the alleged victim blaming was expressed? If that is going on, then the mods should be alerted to it.

 

[MissedItByThatMuch]

You touched on some of these points, but it seems to me that if the video is edited/pixelated for nefarious reasons, then a) multiple people (including higher-ups) at the hotel would have to be aware of it due to it's blatant nature (even if they were informed by the police after turning it in), and b) the police would have to be either going along with a cover-up or actively investigating the reasons why it's edited.

This is a very good point of discussion. First, we need to discover who was responsible for the pixels. It may or may not be possible to discover it, but that doesn't mean it can't be discussed with the intent.

Second, you are right, that the finger is pointing, not just to a hotel staffer that may have been part of the murder, but to the hotel manager if it was decided to cover for the staffer. Or it could be worse for the manager. It just goes to show how profoundly the revelations can be from the condition of this timestamp. Instead of viewing it as too unlikely that the manager / owner are involved in some way, I would rather entertain them as suspects, until it proves otherwise. That's my personal position.

I'm not so sure that the police are going along with the cover-up, as that would require something like covering for a family member. There is such a thing as a high-lever brotherhood in California called Bohemian Grove, but for the time being, I would rather not include such ideas in trying to interpret the timestamp. The Grove is where presidents and other world-class politicians and corporate leaders meet for a bash that reportedly includes prostitutes, homosexuals, and even a mock human-sacrifice to a Moloch idol. In ancient times, Moloch was a human-sacrifice cult.

 

[noodled1]

Very true about the variety of possibilities, such as the security guard thing. It's easy to hear a fact and make a mountain out of its implications, but real life is so complex and often arbitrary that you just don't know how relevant certain things really are.

As for climbing in for fun, I personally cannot fathom doing such a thing... especially not knowing if there is something dangerous inside, like a suction pipe. But I'm wimpy about those kinds of things. I was adventurous with drugs as a kid, which are just as dangerous, but I was a huge wimp when it came to heights, small spaces, etc Obviously Elisa had a much different personality, so there's no way of determining much other than either method of her getting into that tank is possible... by her own actions, or by someone else's.

I just can't wait for the tox results, because at least it will be some answers, and it could even lead to more public answers from investigators. I search Elisa on Google news every damn day.

the tox results and other findings will answer a lot of questions. Probably create more also...lol

 

[Simply Caustic]

<modsnip>

In regards to the subject of this thread - What happened to Elisa - IMHO I believe she was in some form of a temporary psychosis, a mental break, a manic episode, what have you - and that she placed herself in the water tank. That is MOO and I base it upon the known facts (admittedly, few) in this case.

Looking forward to tox results... (Oh, and I think to suggest the police guilty of any impropriety is a bit illogical and without any basis in fact/reality).

 

[Wee B.]

In regards to the idea that a perp went into security and edited the footage- as a former editor, who also has access to my current company's security videos, you are assuming a lot the there are edit capabilities in the security room, and that a random employee would just know how to edit. Both highly unlikely.

 

[findinganatta]

This is a very good point of discussion. First, we need to discover who was responsible for the pixels. It may or may not be possible to discover it, but that doesn't mean it can't be discussed with the intent.

Second, you are right, that the finger is pointing, not just to a hotel staffer that may have been part of the murder, but to the hotel manager if it was decided to cover for the staffer. Or it could be worse for the manager. It just goes to show how profoundly the revelations can be from the condition of this timestamp. Instead of viewing it as too unlikely that the manager / owner are involved in some way, I would rather entertain them as suspects, until it proves otherwise. That's my personal position.

I'm not so sure that the police are going along with the cover-up, as that would require something like covering for a family member. There is such a thing as a high-lever brotherhood in California called Bohemian Grove, but for the time being, I would rather not include such ideas in trying to interpret the timestamp. The Grove is where presidents and other world-class politicians and corporate leaders meet for a bash that reportedly includes prostitutes, homosexuals, and even a mock human-sacrifice to a Moloch idol. In ancient times, Moloch was a human-sacrifice cult.

I agree that all options in any case should not be ruled out completely, but since we have absolutely zero reason to believe the hotel or its staff (or anyone in the LE) are involved in perpetrating or covering up anything in this case, I can't imagine spending much time going down those rabbit holes without further information. In my opinion, that just becomes an exercise in imagination that is much more subject to the personality of the person doing the imagining than it is to facts.

As for the Bohemian Grove, I'm fully aware of it, as well as the supposed "connections" between EL's death and various other events. The internet is overflowing with places to speculate on the Illuminati, but that kind of stuff could easily derail every single crime discussion on this site, IMO.

 

[findinganatta]

In regards to the idea that a perp went into security and edited the footage- as a former editor, who also has access to my current company's security videos, you are assuming a lot the there are edit capabilities in the security room, and that a random employee would just know how to edit. Both highly unlikely.

I've thought this exact same thing. Although the editing is relatively minor, it would require knowledge and time. On top of that, it appears to me that the security footage was captured on analog tape, not on a digital drive. So the tape would have to be converted to digital (requiring an extra device), edited on a computer, and then recorded back onto a tape if the police were to be deceived (which of course they wouldn't be, anyway, because the editing is obvious).

the tox results and other findings will answer a lot of questions. Probably create more also...lol

Very true. If something is in her system, it still doesn't answer how it got there.

I actually think it would more telling if nothing suspicious was in her system, because it would narrow down the possibilities regarding whether a chance mental episode occurred. If we accept that she expressing some form of psychosis or bizarre behavior in the video (unrelated to events happening off-camera), then personally I would feel safe in accepting that she was experiencing mental illness. In that case, I would be significantly more likely to assume that no foul play was involved. Of course, it could be argued that someone else killed her regardless of her mental condition, but to me it would seem much less likely than if she had drugs in her system.

 

[Nickfalzone]

In regards to the idea that a perp went into security and edited the footage- as a former editor, who also has access to my current company's security videos, you are assuming a lot the there are edit capabilities in the security room, and that a random employee would just know how to edit. Both highly unlikely.

Same, I worked in tv production for 5 years along with several years doing docs and short films. I also have significant experience setting up home security/cctv systems. The one at the Cecil appears to be an old style VHS recording system. In order to edit it and then output it, you would have to have do quite a bit of work and have relatively expensive equipment. The missing seconds, imo, are simply the result of the motion detection shutting off the camera for brief periods. A motion detection algorithm, particularly an older one, will go into standby mode even if someone is in the shot, but standing very still. And again, the youtube video is a poor way to determine dropped frames and any other details in the video - the only satisfactory way to make these determinations is to watch the actual master tape, on an interlaced television. A lot is lost in the transfer/compression from tape to youtube.

 

[Nickfalzone]

I've thought this exact same thing. Although the editing is relatively minor, it would require knowledge and time. On top of that, it appears to me that the security footage was captured on analog tape, not on a digital drive. So the tape would have to be converted to digital (requiring an extra device), edited on a computer, and then recorded back onto a tape if the police were to be deceived (which of course they wouldn't be, anyway, because the editing is obvious).

Exactly. Way too much work, and as you said, the re-output to tape would call attention to itself just by the change in video quality from the rest of the security footage.

 

[findinganatta]

snipped
The missing seconds, imo, are simply the result of the motion detection shutting off the camera for brief periods. A motion detection algorithm, particularly an older one, will go into standby mode even if someone is in the shot, but standing very still. And again, the youtube video is a poor way to determine dropped frames and any other details in the video - the only satisfactory way to make these determinations is to watch the actual master tape, on an interlaced television. A lot is lost in the transfer/compression from tape to youtube.

I've wondered about the motion detection part, because I know nothing about how that works, especially on older systems. But it's always appeared to be motion detection to me. And on top of that, I've always wondered if there aren't other inherent glitches in their system, especially given its age. I know frames can drop and video performance can be corrupted due to a number of perfectly logical reasons.

 

[nerdy]

Same, I worked in tv production for 5 years along with several years doing docs and short films. I also have significant experience setting up home security/cctv systems. The one at the Cecil appears to be an old style VHS recording system. In order to edit it and then output it, you would have to have do quite a bit of work and have relatively expensive equipment. The missing seconds, imo, are simply the result of the motion detection shutting off the camera for brief periods. A motion detection algorithm, particularly an older one, will go into standby mode even if someone is in the shot, but standing very still. And again, the youtube video is a poor way to determine dropped frames and any other details in the video - the only satisfactory way to make these determinations is to watch the actual master tape, on an interlaced television. A lot is lost in the transfer/compression from tape to youtube.

If the original video is VHS and subsequently transferred to digital, then the missing frames can be explained purely by the movement of the heads on the original tape as the motion detectors stopped and started. Especially with a machine that would get heavy use, the mechanisms get worn out and there's a lot of slippage. If there's any place on the video where there is nothing at all recorded, there's no time code and the digital transfer would either fill in with the last frame or put some type of black or grey in between.

And that would hold true no matter what tape format, be it S, hi8, 3/4, anything. All analog tapes will have head slippage, need something laid down on the tape in order to not lose timecode/frames, and lose quality with every generation. And every time you reuse a tape, there's physical deterioration to the magnetic surface that holds the image.

 

[MissedItByThatMuch]

In regards to the idea that a perp went into security and edited the footage- as a former editor, who also has access to my current company's security videos, you are assuming a lot the there are edit capabilities in the security room, and that a random employee would just know how to edit. Both highly unlikely.

Thank you Wee. B. You can be of help here if you tell how much or little your security system can be altered. I had wanted to call the company that made the cameras for Cecil, but was unable to find what brand the camera is. I asked myself whether history has yet come to the point where security cameras for private business are mandated by government to be tamper-proof. I'm sure that if government and police had their way for crime purposes, they would like to see tamper-proof cameras.

If we were the police investigators and knew that someone at the hotel tampered with the video, the fewer the people with access to the video room, the better. So, if you'd like to enlarge on that topic, please share. I include the manager(s) as a suspect exactly due to the accessibility issue.

 

[BlueShoe]

In motion-detecting cameras, does pushing elevator buttons or the motion of the elevator itself between floors keep that camera activated. I'm particularly interested if pushing the floor buttons keeps the camera going. Anyone know?

 

[MissedItByThatMuch]

Same, I worked in tv production for 5 years along with several years doing docs and short films. I also have significant experience setting up home security/cctv systems. The one at the Cecil appears to be an old style VHS recording system. In order to edit it and then output it, you would have to have do quite a bit of work and have relatively expensive equipment. The missing seconds, imo, are simply the result of the motion detection shutting off the camera for brief periods. A motion detection algorithm, particularly an older one, will go into standby mode even if someone is in the shot, but standing very still. And again, the youtube video is a poor way to determine dropped frames and any other details in the video - the only satisfactory way to make these determinations is to watch the actual master tape, on an interlaced television. A lot is lost in the transfer/compression from tape to youtube.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're saying that the camera stops taping after even one or two seconds of inactivity. However, we can see the camera continuing to roll with several seconds of inactivity. If you're saying that the three snip areas, each about two seconds long, are due to the camera ceasing to tape, that idea needs to be off the table. <modsnip> In other words, there are three snips in there, according to the face value of the timestamp. The evidence suggests that the camera does not stop rolling after merely two seconds of inactivity. I aplogize if I am misunderstanding your statement.

<modsnip>

So, I have a correction to make in my next "My fellow" post, and will ask the moderators to delete the last "My fellow" post because it's misleading.

 

[MissedItByThatMuch]

Exactly. Way too much work, and as you said, the re-output to tape would call attention to itself just by the change in video quality from the rest of the security footage.

To put forward the argument that the tape could not have been tampered with, due to the difficulty or impossibility of getting away with it in the eyes of the police, is to be coupled with the argument that the staffer may have had little choice but tamper as best he could... because not tampering would have shown more guilt. In other words, the staffer was between a rock and a hard place, but that doesn't necessarily suggest that there was no effort to tamper.

It's not a minor tampering if frames are added to the video in a murder case. It would be a very big deal to the police, having the potential to identify the culprit.