UK UK - Alistair Wilson, 30, murdered at home, Nairn, Scotland, 28 Nov 2004

[Keine Engel]

*The murder wasn't planned*- the guy expected to be paid as he had been before. He took the gun because it made him feel more powerful and safe. He panicked when AW refused him.

The whole case is very mysterious and no theory feels like a really good fit, mine included. I agree with others that his wife and LE likely know more but are holding back.

The thing that makes me question the murder being unplanned is that the gun was loaded? Why?

It can't be stressed enough how rare guns are in the U.K., I mean getting hold the gun would've (probably) been difficult enough but also the correct ammo as well??

It is possible the shooter hadn't known it was? That would fit with the whole panic scenario thou.

I so agree with how mysterious the whole case is. There's so many very different theories, most of which I could easily see fit.

 

[jambers]

I'll give it a try

I think it's possible the Wilsons were being blackmailed. For what I have no clue. Maybe only Alistair was but he had confided in his wife. They both decided not to pay any more. On the night of his death the man came to collect money. Alistair took the envelope and went to his wife saying "They want more money." "No. Enough is enough. Tell him we won't give him anything anymore." So he goes back down to tell the visitor that he won't comply with their demands anymore. Worried that AW might tell someone or even contact police the guy shoots him.

I think the shooter is a local petty criminal who found something out about AW that was bad enough that he could exploit it. I think the envelope was just an envelope lying around at his home and he grabbed it on his way out. Maybe he himself or one of his relatives is called Paul and recently had a birthday. A small sized envelope was large enough for the sum he asked for, for example 1000 Pounds.

The murder wasn't planned - the guy expected to be paid as he had been before. He took the gun because it made him feel more powerful and safe. He panicked when AW refused him.

Moo.

The whole case is very mysterious and no theory feels like a really good fit, mine included. I agree with others that his wife and LE likely know more but are holding back.

Two things confuse me with the blackmail / unplanned theory. A blackmail is only of any 'use' (information kind) provided the victim doesn't want the information 'out'. If they are not bothered there's no blackmail to be had and even if they are, once the information is out, that's it (you wouldn't get more money - unless you had dossiers I suppose!!!!) .

What purpose would there then be in killing AW? Only plausible one would be so as to not be visited by the cops for blackmailing someone - but then, what about AW's wife (who saw the killer, and no one can be sure whether she knows anything about a blackmail)?. Theoretically AW (or any person being blackmailed) would have more motive to get rid of the blackmailer (to save money and face)!

Planned or unplanned? Well, I am sure the killer knew exactly where they were going to place the gun (in the particular drain) - just outside the search zone (as noted by the Police); on their way away from the scene (perhaps murder wasn't the intent, but what they did afterward was not indicative of being in any particular rush/panic).

 

[dotr]

Just some thoughts for now..
Maybe something in AW's work life caused someone to lose something big, like a house or investments ect?
If true, maybe that person (Paul?) went on to commit suicide and the killer is a loved one exacting revenge on his behalf?

Maybe it was all just about something shallow like "settling" an old work, real estate, school or romantic grudge?
imo.

 

[jambers]

Just some thoughts for now..
Maybe something in AW's work life caused someone to lose something big, like a house or investments ect?
If true, maybe that person (Paul?) went on to commit suicide and the killer is a loved one exacting revenge on his behalf?

Maybe it was all just about something shallow like "settling" an old work, real estate, school or romantic grudge?
imo.

Although mentioned previously the fact there's not one iota of detail about the 'conversation' is problematic. Based on the much repeated 'No sense of alarm' at the time according to AW's wife, things get even more bizarre.

We don't know the nature of the first conversation (or the last); something made AW return to the door - surely more than simple curiosity? - and (if the reports are accurate) then at least another minute's conversation (as a low estimate) - 'something' was being talked about.

This theory could fit in that if the murderer did come for revenge, perhaps they spent some time 'working up' to the act (hence the 'conversation') - it would also explain the (in my view) apparent planning (calmly walking off, and placing gun in drain at a seeming predetermined point).

The problems however remain with the period AW was back in the house - with no guarantee he'd reappear - then the act of murder itself - not something the vast majority of people could do (even in the heat of the moment) -and the fact a weapon (gun) was sourced - not easy in the UK

 

[trendsetter]

It says here that Tommy Hogg (the man who believed he might have seen the killer traveling by bus to the scene of the crime) "was one of hundreds of local men who were swabbed and DNA-profiled to eliminate them from the case." I presume that this means that the police have a DNA profile of the killer. Is this actually the case? The police have said that there was no DNA on the gun. There was a dog-end found on the doorstep but it's far from clear that it had anything to do with the murder. Have I missed something?

 

[Elainera]

It says here that Tommy Hogg (the man who believed he might have seen the killer traveling by bus to the scene of the crime) "was one of hundreds of local men who were swabbed and DNA-profiled to eliminate them from the case." I presume that this means that the police have a DNA profile of the killer. Is this actually the case? The police have said that there was no DNA on the gun. There was a dog-end found on the doorstep but it's far from clear that it had anything to do with the murder. Have I missed something?

Thanks for pointing this out.

That is very odd. Where could they have retrieved dna from? Touch dna from the door or doorbell? Did someone here mention a cigarette butt was found in front of the door?

What is a dog-end? A leash?

 

[bluebird69]

A dog end is actually a cigarette butt often dropped on the street when the cigarette has been smoked

 

[Elainera]

A dog end is actually a cigarette butt often dropped on the street when the cigarette has been smoked

Ooooh! Haha! I never heard that expression before.

 

[Keine Engel]

Did someone here mention a cigarette butt was found in front of the door?

What is a dog-end? A leash?

British Slang 》 Dog-End​

 

[Elainera]

British Slang 》 Dog-End​

Lol! British English always has the best colloquial expressions. Who came up with this one?? Dog end? Huh?

 

[trendsetter]

It looks certain that the police have what they believe to be a DNA profile of the killer. I speculated a while ago about what happened to the 3 cases that were ejected from the gun. I suggested that the killer could have collected them from wherever they fell and taken them away. I now think this to be unlikely; he would have had to have both the presence of mind and enough time to do this. I doubt that this was the case - from what I've read it seems that there was very little time between Alistair's wife hearing the shots and seeing the assailant walking away. Also it was dark which would mean that finding them wouldn't necessarily be easy. I think it probable that at least one case was recovered by the police and this yielded a DNA sample. If this did not belong to the killer then whoever loaded the gun is clearly complicit in the murder. (If the DNA matched that on the cigarette butt then it would appear that the person who loaded the gun and the person who was at the front door of the Wilson's was one and the same.)

The police have named Shaun Douglas as someone who they want to speak to. They say he is not a suspect. At the time of the murder he was living with his father Keith in nearby Cumming Street. His father said he was at home with him at the time of the murder. Shaun moved to North America shortly after the murder and appears to have lost touch with his family (he has a brother: Craig). It is not clear if the police feel that talking to Shaun is as important as the press suggest (Nairn banker Alistair Wilson murder cops on trail of expat former neighbour) or it's just a loose end that they want to tie up. If interviewed, he would almost certainly confirm what his father had already told them, so that alone would not help the inquiry.

I suspect Keith "was one of hundreds of local men who were swabbed and DNA-profiled to eliminate them from the case" - if so, then the police's interest could have been piqued if there was an indication that Keith, although not a match, was possibly related to someone who was. If Craig also gave a sample then I suspect that when the two profiles (from first degree relatives) were compared with that of the killer then there would be two possible conclusions - either they were almost certainly related to the killer or they were almost certainly not.

 

[Taskforce88]

Cleary this former neighbour has no interest in helping with the investigation.

 

[dotr]

re-post rbbm.Nov 2018
Nairn banker Alistair Wilson murder cops on trail of expat former neighbour
"Officers have been trying to trace Shaun Douglas, who lived close to the tragic dad when he was gunned down on his doorstep 14 years ago.

He wasn’t interviewed by police at the time of the shooting and then moved to North America.

His elderly dad Keith, 82, and brother Craig, 53, urged him to get in touch with detectives who they claim frequently ask them for info on his whereabouts.

The pair say they were recently told he had been spotted in Inverness after being based in northern Canada and Alaska for seven years."

"Shaun is also named in a new book on the unsolved murder To Catch A Killer, written by former police detective Peter Bleksley."

''Bleksley, who is also a co-presenter on Channel 4 reality series Hunted, believes the killer went to “negotiate, not assassinate” Alistair.''

 

[Markybug]

Although mentioned previously the fact there's not one iota of detail about the 'conversation' is problematic. Based on the much repeated 'No sense of alarm' at the time according to AW's wife, things get even more bizarre.

We don't know the nature of the first conversation (or the last); something made AW return to the door - surely more than simple curiosity? - and (if the reports are accurate) then at least another minute's conversation (as a low estimate) - 'something' was being talked about.

This theory could fit in that if the murderer did come for revenge, perhaps they spent some time 'working up' to the act (hence the 'conversation') - it would also explain the (in my view) apparent planning (calmly walking off, and placing gun in drain at a seeming predetermined point).

The problems however remain with the period AW was back in the house - with no guarantee he'd reappear - then the act of murder itself - not something the vast majority of people could do (even in the heat of the moment) -and the fact a weapon (gun) was sourced - not easy in the UK

Although mentioned previously the fact there's not one iota of detail about the 'conversation' is problematic. Based on the much repeated 'No sense of alarm' at the time according to AW's wife, things get even more bizarre.

We don't know the nature of the first conversation (or the last); something made AW return to the door - surely more than simple curiosity? - and (if the reports are accurate) then at least another minute's conversation (as a low estimate) - 'something' was being talked about.

This theory could fit in that if the murderer did come for revenge, perhaps they spent some time 'working up' to the act (hence the 'conversation') - it would also explain the (in my view) apparent planning (calmly walking off, and placing gun in drain at a seeming predetermined point).

why would they place the gun deliberately there? W
The problems however remain with the period AW was back in the house - with no guarantee he'd reappear - then the act of murder itself - not something the vast majority of people could do (even in the heat of the moment) -and the fact a weapon (gun) was sourced - not easy in the UK

why do you think the gun was deliberately left in the drain? Was it meant to be found ?

 

[jambers]

why do you think the gun was deliberately left in the drain? Was it meant to be found ?

The gun was found at the drain nearest the main road on the left hand side of the road on Seabank Road. This proves (unless someone else placed it there) the killer was there. Seabank Road is 100 metres or so further from the scene of the murder than Albert Street (the natural 'get away quickest' route based on the direction the killer was seen heading). The killer therefore passed one drain about 120 feet before this and numerous others on the way there whichever route they took to get there. If the killer walked 'in' to Seabank Road then they had to have been on the main road, and 'closer' the the murder scene with the weapon. If heading out Seabank Road, this was the last drain before the traffic lights and junction on the main road. So the gun was certainly intentionally placed there, the killer - based on the circumstantial evidence, dropping the gun at the last possible chance before heading to the main road and off to wherever.

 

[Markybug]

The gun was found at the drain nearest the main road on the left hand side of the road on Seabank Road. This proves (unless someone else placed it there) the killer was there. Seabank Road is 100 metres or so further from the scene of the murder than Albert Street (the natural 'get away quickest' route based on the direction the killer was seen heading). The killer therefore passed one drain about 120 feet before this and numerous others on the way there whichever route they took to get there. If the killer walked 'in' to Seabank Road then they had to have been on the main road, and 'closer' the the murder scene with the weapon. If heading out Seabank Road, this was the last drain before the traffic lights and junction on the main road. So the gun was certainly intentionally placed there, the killer - based on the circumstantial evidence, dropping the gun at the last possible chance before heading to the main road and off to wherever.

do you think that means he was local and didn’t want to have the gun at home ? As if he wasn’t you would think you would dispose of it miles away ?

 

[jambers]

do you think that means he was local and didn’t want to have the gun at home ? As if he wasn’t you would think you would dispose of it miles away ?

Impossible to say.
I've attached another map. The gun was found where the green 'circle' is on the map. The killer was seen heading in the direction of the red arrow from the scene. Unless they crossed the fields/gardens etc they had two options. 1 - follow the Yellow arrows bringing them to the drain where the gun was found. They'd have passed literally dozens of drains prior to this point, as well as gardens/other points to get rid of the gun. The Green circle is just at some traffic lights to the main road. Turn right and you are 15-minutes from Inverness and the A9. Turn left and you head past the Police Station, scene of the crime, and on 'across the top' to Aberdeen via Elgin.
Alternatively, the killer could have followed the black arrows (that is turning right once out of Crescent road) - however, apart from meaning they'd be passing the end of the road they'd just killed someone on and the Police station, they would then be turning IN to Seabank road to deposit the gun. I recommend having a good look using Google street view from Crescent road, to where the gun was found to consider the situation of the gun. As I say it's hard to say if the killer was local, but (unless it was put there at some later time) where the gun was found does not indicate 'panic' (you'd want to hide it as soon as possible) - the actual location is the last possible location before the main road but not close to the crime scene.

 

[jambers]

Just as an aside: it is reported it took time to find the gun as it was "outside the search zone". Interestingly, the Police did search the beach which (depending on the tides) is a distance of up to 450 meters or so from the scene. That is more or less half way between Albert Road (the nearest route avoiding passing the scene) and Seabank Road (where the gun was found); we don't know if the Police operated a 'circle' search or if they just thought the gunman might have tossed the gun in the sea but perhaps it's of note!

 

[trendsetter]

In Dog Training for Law Enforcement (Eden 1985), the author says that some police dog handlers have noted patterns in the escape routes and movements of offenders fleeing from the scenes of their crimes. This predictability in the movements of those under stress has been observed in both actual trackings of suspects and experimental re-enactments using police dog quarries. Fleeing criminals tend to turn to the left if they are right-handed, move to the right upon encountering obstacles and discard evidentiary items to their right.

Jamber's map (reproduced below) shows a possible route (yellow) where the assailant repeatedly turns left and discards the gun in the road drain which would be on his right. This exactly matches the observations of Eden.

 

[dotr]

In Dog Training for Law Enforcement (Eden 1985), the author says that some police dog handlers have noted patterns in the escape routes and movements of offenders fleeing from the scenes of their crimes. This predictability in the movements of those under stress has been observed in both actual trackings of suspects and experimental re-enactments using police dog quarries. Fleeing criminals tend to turn to the left if they are right-handed, move to the right upon encountering obstacles and discard evidentiary items to their right.

Jamber's map (reproduced below) shows a possible route (yellow) where the assailant repeatedly turns left and discards the gun in the road drain which would be on his right. This exactly matches the observations of Eden.

Awesome, so glad you posted this link which i read once and could never find again, thanks!
Referenced in this book..
Geographic Profiling
graphic Profiling

D. Kim Rossmo
CRC Press, Dec. 28, 1999 - Law - 378 pages

"As any police officer who has ever walked a beat or worked a crime scene knows, the street has its hot spots, patterns, and rhythms: drug dealers work their markets, prostitutes stroll their favorite corners, and burglars hit their favorite neighborhoods. But putting all the geographic information together in cases of serial violent crime (murder, rape, arson, bombing, and robbery) is highly challenging. Just ask the homicide detectives of the Los Angeles Police Department who hunted the Hillside Stranglers, or law enforcement officers in Louisiana who tracked the brutal South Side rapist.

Geographic Profiling introduces and explains this cutting-edge investigative methodology in-depth. Used to analyze the locations of a connected series of crimes to determine the most likely area of offender residence, geographic profiling allows investigators and law enforcement officers to more effectively manage information and focus their investigations.

This extensive and exhaustive work explains geographic profiling theories and principles, and includes an extensive review of the literature and research in the areas of criminal profiling, forensic behavioral science, serial violent crime, environmental criminology, and the geography of crime. For investigators and police officers deployed in the field, as well as criminal analysts, Geographic Profiling is a "must have" reference."