What Is Your Theory?

[Holmes2016]

Another victim just found in Nashua NH. A very mysterious death Just two days ago.

 

[carolann0308]

Another victim just found in Nashua NH. A very mysterious death Just two days ago.

It is not mysterious. He was walking home at night during a severe thunderstorm, there was flooding throughout southern NH that night. He fell into an open storm drain and was drowned. His body found in the nearby river.

They knew he was walking down that street as it was the most direct way home from a friend's house. Police discovered items identified by his parents near the open storm drain the night he disappeared. Police feared from the beginning that he had fallen in because the manhole cover was found a few feet away from where it should have been. Water on the streets on Nashua was 3 feet deep in certain places that night. The storm drain empties directly into the river.

No mystery just a tragic loss.

 

[macrauchenia]

I think the great majority of these deaths are accidents. Many men like to pee in rivers and lakes for some reason, no one pees more often than people who've been drinking (especially those who're drinking beer!), and it's easy to slip and fall when you're unsober. Reports revealed that several drowned men were found with nothing unusual about them besides the fact that their flies were unzipped; apparently they'd fallen in while peeing!

I also suspect that some unsober people are irresistibly drawn to sparkling water, in the same way as severely autistic children (who when missing are commonly drawn to water and sadly often end up drowned). Everyday things can become abnormally profound and fascinating with chemical influence: have you ever stared transfixed at the night sky or even the pattern of the ceiling when you were just DRUNK?

When this happens in the summer or in some place like Florida, it's easier to get out and so hardly anyone dies this way; whereas with the supposed "Smiley Face Murders" it is so cold in these areas at these times of year that hypothermia sets in VERY QUICKLY.

Hypothermia, actually, is what I suspect is behind the bizarre behavior of some "victims." They could hallucinate that people are after them, and then do illogical things like break into buildings to hide from the imaginary pursuers. Hypothermia would also explain the fact that some "victims" were found in various states of undress, because hypothermia paradoxically makes you feel overheated. That would certainly explain wading into the frigid water: what better way to cool off to a delusional mind?

Several "victims" might still be alive, had not the bar security kicked them out in cold weather without their coats. In these cases, the bouncers are criminally negligent or something, certainly at fault, though likely not murderous or in cahoots with the real killers (as many on The Internet have suggested).

A handful of these cases are certainly murders, like Patrick McNeill. He didn't fall in while peeing! The disappearances that are possibly connected with vans MIGHT be a serial killer thing, but if so, they are far from the prolific ingenious murderers some people say they are.

"Muggings gone bad" is a more logical explanation in absence of good evidence that the Definitely-Not-Accidental-Drowning deaths are the work of the same killer(s).

Several of the suspicious deaths seem to me to be cover-ups by friends and/or acquaintances after the victim had died accidentally from alcohol poisoning or overdose. Especially when you're into illegal drugs or even underage drinking, it might seem like a better idea (at the time) to dump a body in the river to be blamed on the SFK, rather than to be honest and call the authorities.

Reasons that the "victims" are all men include
1) We women are much stricter adherents of the "buddy system" because of the real threat of rape (PARTICULARLY in situations involving alcohol and other drugs). Typically we do not let our drunk friends stumble down to the water's edge for any reason, nor do we leave each other black-out drunk at the mercy of male strangers.
2) Women are more reluctant than men to pee outdoors, but when we have no choice a river or lake is the last place we'd pick. Whereas in my experience, men will pee into creeks and on trees for the sheer joy of it.
3) Because rumor has it that the "Smiley Face Killers" only kill college age men, if you're looking to cover up a woman's accidental death, it wouldn't work as well to dump her in the river and let it be attributed to the SFK.

Anyway, the smiley faces are almost POSITIVELY irrelevant. That symbol is everywhere! I also expect that the bulk of the smiley faces were really drawn by bored/mischievous kids AFTER a drowning hit the news.

If the smiley faces were painted or carved into the corpses, it'd be a different matter! But they're not, they're merely found as graffiti on buildings, trees, and/or rocks near where the body was found AND/OR they're near where the body MAY HAVE entered the water. Or they're found some place even more obscure, like in the bar on a guitar-player's T-shirt!

Likewise, the NUMEROUS "connections" or "codes" or "clues" or "messages" or whatever concerning the names of streets and the names of cities and the names of the dead are all UTTERLY MEANINGLESS COINCIDENCES. The human brain automatically looks for patterns and for meaning, but if we're not careful to respect logic, we can end up "seeing" patterns where there are none and meaning in nonsense. (I mean no disrespect to the people with pages-long "hidden clue" analysis; they clearly worked very hard at it!)

 

[pittsburghgirl]

People underestimate the lethal nature of moving water, whether it is in a river or is a flash flood. That said, some of these cases do not fit the pattern of "drunk guy falling into the river while peeing off a pier."

 

[bluesneakers]

People underestimate the lethal nature of moving water, whether it is in a river or is a flash flood. That said, some of these cases do not fit the pattern of "drunk guy falling into the river while peeing off a pier."

I agree - sometimes it's obvious and other times something is a bit off.

I feel like I would need a few giant bulletin boards ala Bobby Goren to even attempt to find a starting point.

 

[StacyW]

I disagree with your theory.. These men are being targeted and possibly drugged. So many men have died.

 

[StacyW]

The men are being stalked and possibly drugged...then taken. I want to see these cases solved. It is frustrating that others cannot see what is happening. The men are not being mugged. Their personal belongings are usually found. How do we solve and stop the deaths? i do not mean to sound crabby.

 

[StacyW]

I think the "smileyface killers" was created at SJU.

 

[Ashiva]

Honestly, I think we had better use Occam's razor on this one and call it for what it is: suicide. In the midwest, there aren't a lot of easy ways out. Most homes in Minnesota only have hunting rifles or BB guns, if any at all, and the midwest is flat with soft soil rather than rocky with jagged cliffs. That leaves train, suicide by cop, bridge, or overdose. In many of these cases, it appears to be bridge + overdose. Suicide by cop is far too dramatic for the modest, homogenous societies in the midwest, and train suicide happens often enough--at least it did in Fargo. However, train = bodily mutilation and potential pain (as some end up surviving, thankfully), whereas alcohol + drowning is relatively clean and seems less painful.

 

[Wolfounette]

I would agree with Ashiva on the fact that it can be suicide. But in some of the reported victims, there are forensic proofs that the body had stayed for some time before being dumped in the water later on. Also, the positioning of the victims is off. Of course I know sometimes disturbance in the water could make the body roll around and end up facing upwards, but drowned victims are usually found head down. The decomposition process could also, maybe turn the body around, but I am not sure.

Also, take everything else out of the equation, why go jump off a bridge in freezing temperatures? I live in Canada and honestly, I would not think about jumping off a bridge when it's -30°C outside. Also, there is no absolute certitude you will die when jumping off a bridge like that. Those young men were University students, come on with a almost unlimited amount of medical information available NONE OF THEM would of thought of a more certain way and painless way to end their days?

Oh and even if you don't have access to gun (like us canadians by example), there are still many ways to commit suicide: slashing your wrists/throat, hanging, carbon monoxyde poisoning, jumping off the top of a building, jumping in front of a moving vehicule, go crash your car into a wall or a tree, fire, prescription drugs, exposure to the elements (especially in the winter months), and more...

 

[Byte]

Now while I agree that the grand majority of these are probably accidents I'll write a few theoretical situations that homicide might be possible- at least from the perspective of a Wisconsin native.

Giving the party atmosphere drugs are definitely possible, guys are more likely to leave their drinks unguarded and are more likely to accept drinks from strangers due to most people associating date-rape drugs or similar drugs that cause for a lapse in memory, judgement or otherwise inability to control themselves (for the time I'll refer to these as knockout-drugs for a more generalized definition.) In addition cases in which a potential victim was drugged but not drowned would likely go unreported due to shame caused by being drugged or kids not yet old enough to drink being drugged thus making them more unwillful to report their own wrongdoing. In the scenario in which drugs are used there needs to be more than one perpetrator with the exception being if the victims were followed until they reached water and then in their weakened, drugged state, were directed to an area in which drowning would be possible. If we are going by the previously mentioned possibility of a van I'd guess anywhere from two to four people would be involved in the drugged abduction theories that have come up.
All in all not impossible but unlikely- it would also be easy to determine if a drug is at play by testing the hair of a victim. (which I believe can be done well after the individuals death)

The next possibility is forcing a victim into the water without the use of drugs. In order for this to work the perpetrator would need to not only know the area but also have enough strength to possibly lunge a victim into the water or to hold someone under for a great amount of time with minimal noise. This is another situation where I can only see it working with two people or more, one needing to commit the act and the other either assisting or assuring that there would be no one around. In a college city, on a night where there are drunkards wondering the street, it would be impossible to commit the amount of crimes believed without being caught without such help. The drowning area would also need to be scouted in advance due to even a minor slip up taking up more time. These would need to be fast and quiet killings if drowning in a public setting.

Finally, the one I believe in the most and also the one I find the most terrifying; the victim was run into the water by several perpetrators. The scenario would be easy and can be done in addition to the possible knock-out drug use I mentioned before. The victim wanders off alone or is in the accompaniment of someone they believe they can trust, an argument ensues or- if we are going under the assumption that this is the work of a serial killer or group- the perpetrators start make violent gestures unprovoked, causing the victim to feel the need to retreat or run. In a sense it works the same way you'd heard cow into a pasture except with the necessity of water. It may not even be an initially malicious group- see frats that push members into accidental suicide or murder as part of peer pressure, all you need is one person to start yelling and others to follow. In this scenario it could easily be a fellow college student who is the main perpetrator given their word would be more easy to spread among fellow youth. While I don't believe this could result in serial attacks within a short span it could work over the course of several years and easily rack up a body count. It would also be unlikely for people to come forward admitting to being apart of the crowd- drunken students may not even remember it as a harmful event or connect the subsequent drowning with their actions.

As for the suicide possibility- checking for drugs may confirm this as, for at least the few cases I know in my area (one literally a block from my house causing a week long road closure) many take drugs prior to self drowning in order to accept their fates easier.

 

[bluesneakers]

Survival is an instinct and I'd think not swimming or attempting to not drown, at the very least, would require effort.


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[Sailor Haumea]

Most are likely tragic accidents. But I don't doubt that a few are probably murders that have been disguised as accidents.

 

[Callie1027]

Is it possible that this group/gang of killers was formed or has evolved on the deep web? I personally do not think this is just one or two people committing these horrendous acts.

 

[OneParticularHarbor]

My theory. I think "roofies" of several drug varieties are a lot more common in the bar scene than we'd like to think. My male friend got roofied while with a group of people including me. It happens for sexual assault purposes, to make mugging easier, or just for *advertiser censored* n' giggles. So many people who have been roofied have no idea that they did. My friend is a BIG drinker, so him all of a sudden being on the ground and slurring after three beers made no sense. The girl who did it got busted with a purse that resembled a pharmacy, so who even knows what she put in his drink. Or why, as she wouldn't say.

I think at least some of these men who ended up drowning, did so due to an unfortunate combination of events. Roofies, intentional drug use, and/or excessive alcohol. Many colleges are near water, so many of these bars are near water. Male friends tend to not be as over-cautious with each other as female friends are. If my male buddy left a bar alone, I'd probably let him go. If my female buddy left a bar alone, I'd chase her down and keep her with me until I could safely get her home. Add winter time temps to the mix, and you have a deadly combination.

Some of these are undoubtedly suicide. And some of them are undoubtedly homicide. But I think the vast majority are going to be a combination of misfortunes.

 

[UnicornDragon]

My guess is there's one killer who is mobile who is taking advantage of the accidental nature of the drownings of many.

 

[leopardspots44]

I'd like to just throw out some information based on what I know. I have no theories, other than I do not think Dan Zamlen was victim to suicide or accidental drowning. I knew him, I knew his family, and this case has been troubling me for 10 years. My brother helped in his search for almost a month. Dan may have had something to drink, but was not obliterated. He was diabetic, he couldn't drink like that. He was the kind, quiet, dry sense of humor type that would rather walk away from a dispute than engage. I'm sure everyone has read what has been said and written, but I'll reiterate: the river was dragged after he disappeared so there's no way he just fell in that night. Had he been drowned or put in the river, it would have had to be after initial searches were complete. The bloodhounds followed his scent to a spot where it is suspected he disappeared, at the top of the bank of the river. This is indicative that he did not fall down the bank, walk down to pee, or move that direction for any reason. His mom wrote a very thorough account of what she has been able to find, and a second autopsy found GHB in his system. I read earlier about roofies and people being compromised... I could definitely see that being a factor. Who knows, for all I know he could have stepped out into the street, been hit and injured/killed, and dumped in the river days later.
I don't know if his case will ever be solved, but I hope to goodness, for his family's sake, and also friends that knew him, that someday justice will be served. I know other links from this site have been shared, so in case this one hasn't, here it is:

Footprints at The River's Edge: Setting the record straight about Dan Zamlen

 

[cds0902]

I live in Columbus Ohio and I remember the Brian Schaffer case, a medical student at The Ohio State University, he was never found.

 

[alexandermanes]

Generally speaking, I do see a plausible victimology within the case itself. All the victims are popular white college males. These men are the type of men who are easily envied; they have friends, they seem happy, and their life is made. This could lead to unsubs being someone who considers themselves a bit of a social Robin Hood; they take the life of the popular for the unpopular.

 

[alexandermanes]

You have a good point: at this point, the smiley faces do seem more like lore than they do an actual signature from a killer.