Working Theories Thread

[RubyRed]

My question is-why did LE not give all or any of the things to watch for that Calliope has mentioned and requoted in post 94?

The lack of that kind of information and the lack of a profile really impact my thoughts.

As far as not clearing the family, people have mentioned other cases where no one in the family was the perp.

We do not know that in any of those cases, that LE was not able to clear the family because there were inconsistencies that meant that LE could not clear them.

I just turned out that the perp was someone else.

Instead of LE always saying "no comment" That list of things to watch for would have been very helpful for the people of that area to hear.jmo

 

[TrialAddict]

The photo of him alone in the somewhat darken classroom, standing in front of his project the morning he was last seen bother's me. Don't ask me to explain why. I have more then a few reasons and need to think about them some more.

 

[TrialAddict]

Hi Clown. Can you please share the link to the source you confirmed that Kyron was going to his biomom's that day? We're trying to see what we can confirm on this in another thread specifically on this topic.

If you'll please post the link, I'll make sure it gets over to the other thread.

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod

I was going by what I have seen on here. I edited my post

 

[Kimster]

Let's get back on topic as to what you think might have happened to Kyron and why. General discussion posts are going to be removed soon. I'll give everyone the opportunity to edit them into their own theory first in case I'm missing the point. I'm referring to a couple of posts above this one.

 

[Garden Variety]

How to Analyze Like a Profiler

I think this 6/9/2010 article by (non-FBI) profiler Radell Hunter is extraordinarily fascinating and may be of keen interest to many of you. It certainly was to me.

Ms Hunter has essentially written a primer on how to analyze a potential criminal case by taking the few known facts of the Aubrey Sacco case and illustrating how she develops a profile of the victim and potential perpetrators. This case also has a paucity of known facts.

It's timely reading, fellow sleuths.

Sorry I'm too deficient to make the link clickable. If you simply go to www.associatedcontent.com and then search for key phrase Aubrey Sacco: Missing American in Nepal--A Case Profile you will find it.

Perhaps a mod or other person with techy-talent could make this link clickable?

Happy reading. (Sad case too. Heartbreaking.)

 

[trigger]

The photo of him alone in the somewhat darken classroom, standing in front of his project the morning he was last seen bother's me. Don't ask me to explain why. I have more then a few reasons and need to think about them some more.

One picture of him in a classroom bothered me, IMO, hes not smiling, and hes always smiling...My heart sank when I saw it.

Rubyred posted 65 pics of him. Look at pic#19...

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10003676-18.html?tag=page

 

[Emma Peel]

My question is-why did LE not give all or any of the things to watch for that Calliope has mentioned and requoted in post 94?


The lack of that kind of information and the lack of a profile really impact my thoughts.

As far as not clearing the family, people have mentioned other cases where no one in the family was the perp.

We do not know that in any of those cases, that LE was not able to clear the family because there were inconsistencies that meant that LE could not clear them.

I just turned out that the perp was someone else.

Admittedly, this lack of perp-profiling with the public impacts my "theorizing". This is why I tend to think they have a pretty good suspect, and are canvassing and searching diligently for evidence.

To build on thoughts about this LE approach here:

Highlighting for scrutiny:
LE's transition to criminal investigation, followed by requests for video, wide publication of Kyron's clothing details & glasses, etc., and lack of publication of any perp-profiling guidelines to the public.

Exploring: why does LE want public to know what Kyron was wearing? Possible Reasons -

(a) because witnesses may have seen Kyron out & about pre-death with the still "friendly perp" and they hope to prompt memory and get folks to review those private surveillance tapes and decide to admit them

or

(b) in the event public/someone comes across discarded clothing/glasses or same in an odd place (such as vehicle, trunk, garage, barn)

or

(c) in the event public/someone comes across remains with clothing.

This LE approach supports all my previous theorizing regarding perp-known-to-family, AND perp now known to LE.

Also, LE emphasis on the glasses haunts me - reminds me of the little significant "trophies" that serials keep from their victims (as seen on crime-fantasy TV). That is likely my imagination working overtime there. But.. ugh. :cry:

 

[seeking truth]

I agree with the bolded, for sure. And, IMO, the glasses were meant to be found.

I hope I am correct in believing that, though no discussion, per se, is allowed here, we can jump off of other people's posts in this "working theories" thread. Like so many here, I am treading carefully...

IRule254, in quoted post above, is responding to the idea that Kyron's glasses may have been found and that is why photos of him have been released showing him without his glasses.

I wonder, though. Instead of his glasses being "meant to be found," as IRule postulates, maybe Kyron's glasses were kept by the perpetrator and they have been found in his or her home.

This is just an idea; speculation as to why we are looking at pics of Kyron without his glasses. I'll add this, though:

I do not think the fact that pictures have been released of him without his glasses was done because we are meant to be on the lookout for him. I believe it is a calculated move by LE and I do not think they believe that Kyron is alive. WHY all the billboards? Maybe LE would not find it prudent to share what they know with those paying for these billboards.

OR...I am way off base. It is hard to get around those billboards, unless they are totally separate from the investigation.

Of course, this is all my opinion.

 

[RubyRed]

The photo of him alone in the somewhat darken classroom, standing in front of his project the morning he was last seen bother's me. Don't ask me to explain why. I have more then a few reasons and need to think about them some more.

One picture of him in a classroom bothered me, IMO, hes not smiling, and hes always smiling...My heart sank when I saw it.

Rubyred posted 65 pics of him. Look at pic#19...

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10003676-18.html?tag=page

I have these pics posted in the Skyline Elementary School thread if you want to discuss these pics there.

 

[Calliope]

How to Analyze Like a Profiler

I think this 6/9/2010 article by (non-FBI) profiler Radell Hunter is extraordinarily fascinating and may be of keen interest to many of you. It certainly was to me.

Ms Hunter has essentially written a primer on how to analyze a potential criminal case by taking the few known facts of the Aubrey Sacco case and illustrating how she develops a profile of the victim and potential perpetrators. This case also has a paucity of known facts.

It's timely reading, fellow sleuths.

Sorry I'm too deficient to make the link clickable. If you simply go to www.associatedcontent.com and then search for key phrase Aubrey Sacco: Missing American in Nepal--A Case Profile you will find it.

Perhaps a mod or other person with techy-talent could make this link clickable?

Happy reading. (Sad case too. Heartbreaking.)

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5470434/aubrey_sacco_missing_american_in_nepal.html?cat=17

 

[ElizaAvalon]

I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.

We're on the same page, as usual, JG! Nice to see you again.

 

[PortlandMama]

I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.

Since publishing pictures of him without his glasses, however, they have also released very detailed pictures of the type of glasses he wore. Front, back and--inside the frame--the etched name of the manufacturer. So I'm not staking too much on the "without the glasses" pictures except that alive or not, he is very possibly without them now.

 

[ElizaAvalon]

Since publishing pictures of him without his glasses, however, they have also released very detailed pictures of the type of glasses he wore. Front, back and--inside the frame--the etched name of the manufacturer. So I'm not staking too much on the "without the glasses" pictures except that alive or not, he is very possibly without them now.

Perhaps they have the glasses in custody.

I'm wondering if he was possibly seen without them.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I can't find the picture of the interior hall of the school showing the janitor headed down the stairs right now.

IF I am recalling it correctly, though, I have a theory as to how a friendly looking stranger could have abducted Kyron that doesn't involve the perpetrator entering the school at all.

As I recall the picture, there is a flight of stairs headed down to a blue exit door with a pane of glass next to it. I think it would be possible for someone to approach that window from the outside and wait to see a child alone through the glass. Most of the people in the hallway would not have a view of the window because it is lower than the level of the hallway itself. Anyone looking through that window would be able to see anyone in the hallway who could see them (direct line of sight).

In most places, security cameras are obvious. All the perpetrator would have had to do is examine the outside of the school to know he was not being recorded.

I theorise that when the perpetrator saw an unaccompanied child through the glass, he knocked to attract Kyron's attention and indicated he needed help opening the door (or the door was already locked from the outside).

It was a busy day, with strange adults going in and out. Kyron went down to open the door and the stranger asked him to help bring something into the school.

If at any point the perpetrator realised someone had seen him with Kyron, he would have aborted the abduction.

The point of no return would have been the point at which the perpetrator did something obviously suspicious with Kyron that could not be plausibly denied.

If the perpetrator had a vehicle like an SUV, van or minivan, that point of no return could have happened inside of the vehicle. He could have opened the door to the vehicle and said something like "go back in there and grab the blue box, okay?" All that there would have been for a potential witness to see would be a small boy getting into the vehicle willingly, which might easily be overlooked or forgotten.

This theory assumes that there is a perpetrator and that the perpetrator is willing to take a moderate amount of risk. I think these are fair assumptions to make, given the known facts of the case.

 

[Kimster]

A few posts were removed for the mod squad to review. No one has violated TOS, but I wanted to make mention so y'all don't wonder. It's all good - please continue.

ETA: The removed posts will remain removed. We are not going to delve into anyone's personal life unless LE says they are a POI. This is how we operate on Websleuths.

If we have a named POI, those rules will change and the removed posts will be returned.

 

[tehcloser]

To me, if LE had the glasses, they would not have given out such a detailed description. There would be no need to. Well unless they were trying to fool the perp, and hence this is where we start going in circles whilst waiting for news.

 

[Whome?]

I am not leaning toward a stranger in this abduction.
I think if police think this was a stranger abduction
then there would be reason for the community at large
to watch and guard their children,to be on the look
out for strangers etc.

I think that the purpose of securing video from surrounding
businesses,is to see if a known vehicle was spotted at certain
times where the alibis said they were not.

In my opinion the police know who did this,(hence the
emotion from the police) at the press conferences,
("how could you do this,to him) Otherwise I think the
police would have no choice but to crack down on this
community and advise all to watch their children.

This has not happen in this case,and I find it astounding

JMHO

 

[RubyRed]

I can't find the picture of the interior hall of the school showing the janitor headed down the stairs right now.

IF I am recalling it correctly, though, I have a theory as to how a friendly looking stranger could have abducted Kyron that doesn't involve the perpetrator entering the school at all.

As I recall the picture, there is a flight of stairs headed down to a blue exit door with a pane of glass next to it. I think it would be possible for someone to approach that window from the outside and wait to see a child alone through the glass. Most of the people in the hallway would not have a view of the window because it is lower than the level of the hallway itself. Anyone looking through that window would be able to see anyone in the hallway who could see them (direct line of sight).

.

SBBM

I have that pic posted on the Skyline School thread. I enlarged that pic and that does not appear to be a door but looks more like bristol board.

 

[winterrose]

Oh geesh,I've been fighting within my own mind as to what I really believe happened,because I hope I'm very wrong.But,allowing the kids to go back to school that Monday,saying this is isolated.I think they're looking for either he was killed or turned over to a known acquaintance,possibly relative...

In people who are extremely social and want to appear they have a perfect life,the stress of the reality could cause someone to find ways to keep up that appearance.The perfect Mom,volunteering,children involved in all the community activities available,soccer,swimming,cubscouts,and volunteering in the school,reading with kids,class projects,etc.I mean one of these activities keeps mothers running on the road all the time,but so many leads me to believe other things.

I have wondered with the pattern of volunteering and involvement,why that day the SM didn't stay and be one of the parents who helped in the class,of all days,one of the last main events of the year and the talentshow,especially.And the detachment of another child,sharing a child with another mother all the time,the emotional stress of all of this,and all the things involved in the everyday life could have been the boiling point.

I think he was possibly hidden to make a situation where he has to go live with his mother,because the father doesn't want to give up custody.But her perfect life is with her daughter and her husband.I can look at his face at the pressers and see he knows something and is torn up about it and has to wait to find out what happened.She has relatives in other places and I think she took him to meet up with one of them.I don't think she thought she'd be suspected,because it was the perfect opportunity with all that was in the school that day to blame it on a stranger.I hope I'm wrong.

 

[carole]

I've wondered if Kyron had been talking/asking if he could live full time with his mom and stepdad, essentially flip-flopping the current custody arrangement.