Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #7

[Reneemaree88]

I doubt anything was recorded by SM. They would have been onto PS much earlier IMO if that was the case.

I think a number of CCTV or similar all point in the same direction.

IIRC the police/detective said it was a targeted attack that lead to murder. They believe SM was murdered that day at mt clear. I think a combination of SM's watch and phone data, PS's phone, his car or motorbike captured on various CCTV, plus everyone's reports - must all combine together to form good evidence. And something somehow is really strongly showing it's deliberate. Maybe satellite info could be more likely to show something? I feel like if it was the trees or cameras with CCTV to catch illegal dumping, they may have had access to that footage earlier? My memory is not so great but from what I remember being reported, they must have been onto PS and as soon as they got the phone data, it was game over. That was the final thing to confirm before the arrest?
All MOO.

You are correct about the phone data. I actually meant to add that in my post. I wonder if this phone data evidence is why they waited and watched him for two weeks before they arrested him, in the hopes he would go to her body.

One method or the other, there are many ways VICPOL could have obtained video or photography evidence.

Hopefully, we all find out the whole truth soon.

 

[FromGermany1]

You are correct about the phone data. I actually meant to add that in my post. I wonder if this phone data evidence is why they waited and watched him for two weeks before they arrested him, in the hopes he would go to her body.

One method or the other, there are many ways VICPOL could have obtained video or photography evidence.

Hopefully, we all find out the whole truth soon.

Snapchat video from PS to a friend to a friend to a friend, one taking a screen shot and finally forwarded it to police?

 

[SouthAussie]

Snapchat video from PS to a friend to a friend to a friend, one taking a screen shot and finally forwarded it to police?

Well, the kid is a complete nincompoop (to be polite) if he actually forwarded pics or video of killing a person to anyone else.

That would be a complete no-no in the Murder for Dummies book.

imo

 

[bearbear]

Where do you think the police would have seen incriminating footage? Do you mean that someone who had access to the accused's phone saw videos or photos and turned him in? How would they have got the videos or photos to the police without the accused being able to see they were forwarded?

I don't think the telcos and other suppliers would allow the police to go on a fishing trip of a person's phone or data content, before they are arrested. (Via a warrant, I mean)

imo

my post was in reference to several peoples posts earlier who seemed convinced from watching the police presser that police had seen footage, like a gotcha moment, and although ive watched it several times didnt pick that up, thought there might be a time marker i could go to?
my scenario is i wonder if the gf passed on video or photo footage to police off ps phone, all she would need to do is send it to her phone and delete sent message on his phone, or send direct to a police phone, or even just video the video with her own phone,
he wouldnt know

 

[Curiousobserver]

The guy described by these campers sounds more like the guy who attacked Sissy (can’t recall the surname) in 2023, not PS.

He is definitely going to be a factor in any trial (assuming the evidence against PS is mostly circumstantial).

Why focus on my client when you have a report of a demented scary man roaming the woods?

Of course if there is solid forensic and/or video evidence this will make little difference.

 

[Warshawski]

Bearbear, this is a sound theory, if it’s not the car accident & cover up theory I outlined yesterday then IMO it will be something along these lines. IMO, in my version of this theory I can’t see another person being involved in the incident (police said they are not looking for anyone else), and I think he’s still used his vehicle to move the body (police have seized it).
This is my no. 2 theory.

I’m not a social media user and I stopped reading other forums on this after the arrest - too much wild rumour mongering going on. But where there is smoke there is fire as they say.

Hi Toowong(s) and Bearbear - I’m along similar lines initially as per your: “currently, in my opinion and all allegedly, im thinking he knew who sm was, had seen her on runs, around town and remembered her from school, she was a local, she may have acknowledged him whenever they passed on the track, he may have become obsessed with her and on the morning he was walking through to get his car she ran past, smiled hello at him and on impulse he decided to assault her, she fought back and he killed her” …

But then I’m really stuck as I don’t think he told anyone, and I’d be surprised if he left her body in that spot to go get his vehicle.

I’ll go out on a limb here & say I think Police knew by 21st Feb that Samantha was deceased. They called off the search & brought in extra police from specialised units - they downplayed the ‘unit speciality’ but spoke of the ‘skills’ those people had . .. interesting to consider what skills may be needed in those units. ( I think they will have also told MM of the likelihood that she was gone)

We’ve heard there’s a lot of cameras around the area so quite possibly the ‘assault’ etc was all caught on CCTV. ..it may’ve captured him carrying her body away - but camera surveillance capability ran out - hence the question re current location.

IMO there’s a good chance that he placed her in a temporary position, and went back later to relocate ( been suggesting the fires, also dams & mine shafts)
That same CCTV ( or another) may have picked up his vehicle in & out at a later time. It’s intriguing why Police kept asking for info on a ‘damaged’ vehicle. His vehicle looked ok to me, but I guess we only saw one side !

I do think it’s possible for it to have been a ‘deliberate attack’ which constitutes a Murder charge - but that he was shocked & horrified afterwards, by what he’d done, and terrified of the implications.

The big question for me is What did he do / How did he act in those 5 weeks ?

5 weeks FFS ! Knowing you’d murdered someone, someone’s Mum, a nice ordinary person, just like your Mum - how do you reconcile or deal with that …

* Did he go to work on the Monday
* Did he go to work as usual there after - he was dressed for work when arrested
* Did he hibernate
- did he socialise as normal
- did he drink more
- did he do more drugs
* Seems he grew a beard as court report said it was ‘bushy, however IF the videos I’ve seen were of him, he was clean shaven in January.
* Was he house sitting by himself or was it him & his girlfriend
* Was his girlfriend studying remotely or on-campus @ Charles Darwin Uni.
* Was the ‘house sitting’ a good opportunity to get out from under his parents gaze

Police paid tribute to information from ‘the public’ - so something has come from somewhere, and I don’t think ‘information’ necessarily has to be ‘verbal’.
I wonder if the searches turned up something. I think tracker Jake Cassar said they handed some stuff in.

All just my random thoughts & opinions, and I apologise for the long ramblings.

 

[BreakingNews]

Totally agree Dotta that that’s what PS’s lawyer may have said… but my opinion is we really can’t know at this stage if PS does or doesn’t have mental health issues… PS does not seem the type to me to go voluntarily for a psychiatric assessment…. Booze and drugs are likely to be his preferred “go to”s… However, PS may be required to undertake some kind of psychiatric assessment while in custody or remand (or wherever he stays in between now and the trial….)

Often, people with certain personality disorders and/or conduct disorders have poor insight into their own mental health. They frequently blame others, rather than taking responsibility for their impulses and actions. As such, even if, hypothetically, the accused may have some kind of mental health issue, it’s also highly likely that neither he nor his lawyer would know about it… yet…

Watch this space… I predict more will emerge…. JMO….

"There is a huge difference between being mad and being bad"
Unknown author

 

[Warshawski]

……..

I don't think the telcos and other suppliers would allow the police to go on a fishing trip of a person's phone or data content, before they are arrested. (Via a warrant, I mean)

imo

Imo, with the appropriate applications to the appropriate telco area, they can do a search

 

[Warshawski]

But surely you cannot take someone’s liberty away without some kind of evidence and putting that evidence to the accused and to the court ?

There were well over 24 hrs hours between his 6am arrest & his subsequent murder charge the next day … imo police will have had him under intense questioning & they will have put all manner of carefully veiled evidence before him in that questioning. He won’t have been left in any doubt as to some of what they were sledging, imo.
Once satisfied they have enough ‘to charge’ with a particular ‘crime’, detectives push that up the line & get the approval to proceed.

Jmo.

 

[Warshawski]

Not quite 2.5 Km , probably about 1.5km or about 20 minutes easy walk. He could go a couple of ways to the western intersection of Recreation Rd and Boak Rd .. there is room to park multiple cars there .
I would imagine SM to run down Rec Rd to turn into Boak … a few hundred metres uphill the Telstra tower ( quite remote ) would be her half way point … then continue on the narrowing Boak coming out at the eastern end of Rec then northwards home along Boundary rd.
Can’t imagine PS lying in wait at the western Rec Rd and Boak Rd corner … more likely the remote Telstra tower uphill on Boak . To get to that point to lay in wait the way that gets minimal public attention is to walk down Olympic Ave past the Mt Clear College turn left into the rough uphill bush track that comes out almost at the tower. ( about 20 minutes from his parents home ).
I can’t see SM running down the exposed to fast traffic Recreation Rd to the western Boak Rd entrance and simply turning around to run back up Rec Rd ( too dangerous ). Running east along Boak Rd avoids the traffic altogether, albeit the road surface is second rate .I think the tower would be her mental ( half way focus) point in the 14 Km morning run.
Very easy for PS to hide behind the tower building in wait to ambush SM.

Cheers for this firsthand info.

What if he didn’t hide. What if he was just there, perhaps as he often was, but this time, instead of just exchanging a greeting / a few words - he attacked, assaulted and killed her.
I'm wondering would it be a murder charge if the attack / assault was deliberate & she died ( perhaps unintentionally) in the process of all that - I think perhaps it could be, given it would be expected that she’d fight back etc.

Learned people’s opinion will be much appreciated on that.

So Dr Samoht, where do you think would be a good & easy place around the Tower for him to initially hide her body ( I think he probably moved it later )

 

[Deleted member 340727]

I no longer see him as some silly 22yo footy kid doing drugs on the weekend and accidentally running someone over.

The alleged perp. is an adult male. The alleged perp. is tall and strong. You are right Angeline to discount the other when the facts will eventually be laid out clearly by the defence. MOO

 

[BreakingNews]

Well, the kid is a complete nincompoop (to be polite) if he actually forwarded pics or video of killing a person to anyone else.

That would be a complete no-no in the Murder for Dummies book.

imo

Stranger things have have occurred.

 

[Warshawski]

The phone data analysis seems to be key here:

"Wednesday February 28:
The Inland Motor Body Works, a smash repair business in Ballarat owned by Ms Murphy and her husband becomes a focus of the investigation, amid speculation outlaw motorcycle gangs were among customers.

Monday March 4:
Investigators begin reviewing mobile phone tower data to identify the movements of people in the area where Ms Murphy vanished.

6 am Wednesday March 6:
A man, 22, is arrested at a Scotsburn home in Ballarat in connection to Ms Murphy's disappearance.

Thursday March 7:
The man is charged with one count of murder and was due to face court later that afternoon."

Sad update in search for Samantha Murphy's body

Almost 100 locals took part in a commemorative jog for mother-of-three Samantha Murphy on Sunday, running the last 7km she had planned to run before she vanished on February 4.

www-dailymail-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org

For what it’s worth, I think they were reviewing that mobile phone tower data well before 4th March.
Imo police are very strategic in what they release..

 

[Dotta]

For what it’s worth, I think they were reviewing that mobile phone tower data well before 4th March.
Imo police are very strategic in what they release..

And yet,
28 Feb they still were busy with Inland Motor Business.

4 March
They started reviewing mobile phone tower data to identify the movements of people

and... Surprise!... Voilà!...

2 days later (6 March) the alleged perp was arrested!

 

[Cedars]

my post was in reference to several peoples posts earlier who seemed convinced from watching the police presser that police had seen footage, like a gotcha moment, and although ive watched it several times didnt pick that up, thought there might be a time marker i could go to?
my scenario is i wonder if the gf passed on video or photo footage to police off ps phone, all she would need to do is send it to her phone and delete sent message on his phone, or send direct to a police phone, or even just video the video with her own phone,
he wouldnt know

I agree, I don't see any gotcha moments in that video at all.

IMO, the police Chief Commissioner is speaking forcefully and with confidence, but that is the demeanour of any police chief I've ever watched on video. That's why they have that job. This is not an ordinary, unsophisticated joe that some behaviour panel can analyze as giving things away based on his unconcious mannerisms. In fact, in order to get his job, he'd have plenty of experience being the one analyzing suspects to detect lies.

Personally, I think he is 'steeled' in order to politely endure a barrage of questions without giving anything away.

In my jurisdiction, the major crimes unit usually brief an officer who is not on the case, with what they want the public to know, so that that spokesperson can truthfully reply to inappriopriate media questions with 'I can't answer that question', because they genuinely don't know anything about the case.

Just speaking for myself, I don't like getting deeply into speculative ideas that turn out to be wrong. For me, the speculation is like a night on the town, but the aftermath - when the speculation proves to be completely off track, is like a very bad hangover.

JMO

 

[jjleroche]

Hi Toowong(s) and Bearbear - I’m along similar lines initially as per your: “currently, in my opinion and all allegedly, im thinking

he knew who sm was, had seen her on runs, around town and remembered her from school, she was a local, she may have acknowledged him whenever they passed on the track, he may have become obsessed with her and on the morning he was walking through to get his car she ran past, smiled hello at him and on impulse he decided to assault her, she fought back and he killed her” …

But then I’m really stuck as I don’t think he told anyone, and I’d be surprised if he left her body in that spot to go get his vehicle.

I’ll go out on a limb here & say I think Police knew by 21st Feb that Samantha was deceased. They called off the search & brought in extra police from specialised units - they downplayed the ‘unit speciality’ but spoke of the ‘skills’ those people had . .. interesting to consider what skills may be needed in those units. ( I think they will have also told MM of the likelihood that she was gone)

We’ve heard there’s a lot of cameras around the area so quite possibly the ‘assault’ etc was all caught on CCTV. ..it may’ve captured him carrying her body away - but camera surveillance capability ran out - hence the question re current location.

IMO there’s a good chance that he placed her in a temporary position, and went back later to relocate ( been suggesting the fires, also dams & mine shafts)
That same CCTV ( or another) may have picked up his vehicle in & out at a later time. It’s intriguing why Police kept asking for info on a ‘damaged’ vehicle. His vehicle looked ok to me, but I guess we only saw one side !

I do think it’s possible for it to have been a ‘deliberate attack’ which constitutes a Murder charge - but that he was shocked & horrified afterwards, by what he’d done, and terrified of the implications.

The big question for me is What did he do / How did he act in those 5 weeks ?

5 weeks FFS ! Knowing you’d murdered someone, someone’s Mum, a nice ordinary person, just like your Mum - how do you reconcile or deal with that …

* Did he go to work on the Monday
* Did he go to work as usual there after - he was dressed for work when arrested
* Did he hibernate
- did he socialise as normal
- did he drink more
- did he do more drugs
* Seems he grew a beard as court report said it was ‘bushy, however IF the videos I’ve seen were of him, he was clean shaven in January.
* Was he house sitting by himself or was it him & his girlfriend
* Was his girlfriend studying remotely or on-campus @ Charles Darwin Uni.
* Was the ‘house sitting’ a good opportunity to get out from under his parents gaze

Police paid tribute to information from ‘the public’ - so something has come from somewhere, and I don’t think ‘information’ necessarily has to be ‘verbal’.
I wonder if the searches turned up something. I think tracker Jake Cassar said they handed some stuff in.

All just my random thoughts & opinions, and I apologise for the long ramblings.

Really very insightful post Warshawski, and makes perfect sense.

In answer to your question -
"5 weeks FFS ! Knowing you’d murdered someone, someone’s Mum, a nice ordinary person, just like your Mum - how do you reconcile or deal with that …

 

[jjleroche]

Hi Toowong(s) and Bearbear - I’m along similar lines initially as per your: “currently, in my opinion and all allegedly, im thinking he knew who sm was, had seen her on runs, around town and remembered her from school, she was a local, she may have acknowledged him whenever they passed on the track, he may have become obsessed with her and on the morning he was walking through to get his car she ran past, smiled hello at him and on impulse he decided to assault her, she fought back and he killed her” …

But then I’m really stuck as I don’t think he told anyone, and I’d be surprised if he left her body in that spot to go get his vehicle.

I’ll go out on a limb here & say I think Police knew by 21st Feb that Samantha was deceased. They called off the search & brought in extra police from specialised units - they downplayed the ‘unit speciality’ but spoke of the ‘skills’ those people had . .. interesting to consider what skills may be needed in those units. ( I think they will have also told MM of the likelihood that she was gone)

We’ve heard there’s a lot of cameras around the area so quite possibly the ‘assault’ etc was all caught on CCTV. ..it may’ve captured him carrying her body away - but camera surveillance capability ran out - hence the question re current location.

IMO there’s a good chance that he placed her in a temporary position, and went back later to relocate ( been suggesting the fires, also dams & mine shafts)
That same CCTV ( or another) may have picked up his vehicle in & out at a later time. It’s intriguing why Police kept asking for info on a ‘damaged’ vehicle. His vehicle looked ok to me, but I guess we only saw one side !

I do think it’s possible for it to have been a ‘deliberate attack’ which constitutes a Murder charge - but that he was shocked & horrified afterwards, by what he’d done, and terrified of the implications.

The big question for me is What did he do / How did he act in those 5 weeks ?

5 weeks FFS ! Knowing you’d murdered someone, someone’s Mum, a nice ordinary person, just like your Mum - how do you reconcile or deal with that …

* Did he go to work on the Monday
* Did he go to work as usual there after - he was dressed for work when arrested
* Did he hibernate
- did he socialise as normal
- did he drink more
- did he do more drugs
* Seems he grew a beard as court report said it was ‘bushy, however IF the videos I’ve seen were of him, he was clean shaven in January.
* Was he house sitting by himself or was it him & his girlfriend
* Was his girlfriend studying remotely or on-campus @ Charles Darwin Uni.
* Was the ‘house sitting’ a good opportunity to get out from under his parents gaze

Police paid tribute to information from ‘the public’ - so something has come from somewhere, and I don’t think ‘information’ necessarily has to be ‘verbal’.
I wonder if the searches turned up something. I think tracker Jake Cassar said they handed some stuff in.

All just my random thoughts & opinions, and I apologise for the long ramblings.

Great post Warshawski. Sounds very feasible.

In answer to your question "5 weeks FFS ! Knowing you’d murdered someone, someone’s Mum, a nice ordinary person, just like your Mum - how do you reconcile or deal with that …"

IMO - lack of conscience.

 

[Awakening]

I was trying to be lighthearted

Same, I couldn’t resist teasing you. That’s a compliment in Australia!

 

[Voluspa]

Cheers for this firsthand info.

What if he didn’t hide. What if he was just there, perhaps as he often was, but this time, instead of just exchanging a greeting / a few words - he attacked, assaulted and killed her.
I'm wondering would it be a murder charge if the attack / assault was deliberate & she died ( perhaps unintentionally) in the process of all that - I think perhaps it could be, given it would be expected that she’d fight back etc.

Learned people’s opinion will be much appreciated on that.

So Dr Samoht, where do you think would be a good & easy place around the Tower for him to initially hide her body ( I think he probably moved it later )

Sorry to answer Dr Samoht's question
I'm not a local however I drove through the area last week when I had some free time. I think you could easily hide a body on Boak Rd, the vegetation is incredibly thick, I could barely see through the sides of the road in parts. The road itself is very rough, deep ruts, essentially a 4WD track. My car managed to make it through, very slowly. Given this, I'd say the road would be much quieter than the others throughout the park? And the vegetation would temporarily conceal a body. I'd suggest it's been searched extensively now, and hats off to all those involved in these searches it's difficult terrain to navigate.

 

[Dr Samoht]

Cheers for this firsthand info.

What if he didn’t hide. What if he was just there, perhaps as he often was, but this time, instead of just exchanging a greeting / a few words - he attacked, assaulted and killed her.
I'm wondering would it be a murder charge if the attack / assault was deliberate & she died ( perhaps unintentionally) in the process of all that - I think perhaps it could be, given it would be expected that she’d fight back etc.

Learned people’s opinion will be much appreciated on that.

So Dr Samoht, where do you think would be a good & easy place around the Tower for him to initially hide her body ( I think he probably moved it later )

Most likely he would know the south side of the Boak Rd phone tower site is criss crossed by the official mountain bike training trails ,vegetation less dense and thus would not have taken that risk of detection.
The north side of Boak Rd heading towards Recreation Rd is dense brushy type vegetation , no one would likely venture ( unless it was an urgent ‘call of nature) .
50 metres in should be enough to hide the body from view, from foot traffic and animals ( dogs being walked off lead) .
From the back of the small dam adjacent to the tower would be a good location reminder to his brain and the off track parking area close by would be convenient .
IMO.