Malaysia airlines 370 with 239 people on board, 8 March 2014 #25

[SouthAussie]

THOUGH, IMO, it does seem that MH370 avoided flying over the Indonesian Island of Sumatra and/or Indonesian airspace on its final flight southward

RSBM

I wonder how wide of a turn the plane would have had to make to go back in a magnetic south direction. And would this wide turn naturally have taken them around Sumatra, and not over it?

I don't imagine a large commercial aircraft could make a quick zippy turn if the AP had been programmed to head south when a hypoxiated pilot/co-pilot realised their ailing plane was heading for a highly populated area like India.

:dunno:

 

[Intermezzo]

RSBM

I wonder how wide of a turn the plane would have had to make to go back in a magnetic south direction. And would this wide turn naturally have taken them around Sumatra, and not over it?

I don't imagine a large commercial aircraft could make a quick zippy turn if the AP had been programmed to head south when a hypoxiated pilot/co-pilot realised their ailing plane was heading for a highly populated area like India.

:dunno:

Early on in the search it was reported that the plane seemed to be flying along the navigational waypoints..I don't know the waypoints heading in the southerly direction after IGREX but I have been trying to look them up.

Last plotted way-point by Malaysian primary radar was GIVAL and then the plane was heading towards IGREX waypoint..

IGREX is north of the island of Sumatra/ Banda Aceh at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca..well clear of Indonesia and perhaps out of their military radar range..(Indonesia has stated nothing showed up on their military radar..) and Malaysian military radar..perhaps this is where Thailand military radar detected MH370, at IGREX.


1:21am IGARI Waypoint (last known secondary radar location)
Flew towards VAMPI waypoint
2:15am GIVAL WAYPOINT (primary radar)
Last plotted heading towards IGREX waypoint

 

[geevee]

The yellow dotted line in this pic is the range limit of the fuel on board if the plane flew in a straight line, which it appears to have done once it started in a southerly direction.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141

Thanks very much for the map SA, much appreciated. So it is unlikely the plane could have gotten much farther south than the last search area. Without refueling, anyways.

 

[SouthAussie]

Early on in the search it was reported that the plane seemed to be flying along the navigational waypoints..I don't know the waypoints heading in the southerly direction after IGREX but I have been trying to look them up.

Last plotted way-point by Malaysian primary radar was GIVAL and then the plane was heading towards IGREX waypoint..

IGREX is north of the island of Sumatra/ Banda Aceh at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca..well clear of Indonesia and perhaps out of their military radar range..(Indonesia has stated nothing showed up on their military radar..) and Malaysian military radar..perhaps this is where Thailand military radar detected MH370, at IGREX.


1:21am IGARI Waypoint (last known secondary radar location)
Flew towards VAMPI waypoint
2:15am GIVAL WAYPOINT (primary radar)
Last plotted heading towards IGREX waypoint

The points through to Igrex are where I imagine the crew were struggling with electrical failures and hypoxia. I’m thinking that the AP heading of magnetic south may have been programmed somewhere around the Igrex waypoint, and that is why the wide turn took them around Sumatra.

Page 38 of the report gives further waypoint info. It is not letting me copy the pic there, showing MUTMI and RUNUT waypoints.

 

[Intermezzo]

The points through to Igrex are where I imagine the crew were struggling with electrical failures and hypoxia. I’m thinking that the AP heading of magnetic south may have been programmed somewhere around the Igrex waypoint, and that is why the wide turn took them around Sumatra.

Page 38 of the report gives further waypoint info. It is not letting me copy the pic there, showing MUTMI and RUNUT waypoints.

I have found a map showing RUNUT way point and Magnetic south possible flight path along the Inmarsat arcs
I think where the Magnetic route and last Arc is about where they will be searching next..

 

[Rhyolite]

Oh those darn MSM headlines...

The ATSB Report does not say the plane tried to skirt Indonesian radar using the mysterious mid-air power outage as the Headline in this article states.

This is what the Report says on Page 22
http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releas..._Definition_of_Sea_Floor_Wide_Area_Search.pdf



--------------------------

THOUGH, IMO, it does seem that MH370 avoided flying over the Indonesian Island of Sumatra and/or Indonesian airspace on its final flight southward

Thanks for the link to the report. It clarifies some of my thoughts.

1) The aircraft indeed would have to be flying for the Inmarsat terminal to transmit as power is obtained strictly from engines, apu or RAM air. I stand corrected.

2) The report admits that the BFO can be biased by the oscillators in the aircraft SDU. What the report ignores is that those oscillators can be pushed way out of tolerance if they receive temperature extremes. If there were a fire, the temperature would rise and the oscillator drift one direction, if there were decompression, the temperature would plummet and the oscillators could drift the other direction. There is no discussion of this and the assumption is that the SDU is operating in a normal environment.

 

[Rhyolite]

TY ElleElle. From EE link above

A report by Australian air crash investigators has disclosed that the missing Boeing 777 suffered a mysterious power outage during the early stages of its flight, which experts believe could be part of an attempt to avoid radar detection.

If there were a fire in the aircraft, it is likely that electrical buses may have failed or been manually switched to mitigate the situation. That may have been one of the last acts of the flight crew.

 

[SeriouslySearching]

The yellow dotted line in this pic is the range limit of the fuel on board if the plane flew in a straight line, which it appears to have done once it started in a southerly direction.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141

Please explain how it is logical the plane went from the Igrex waypoint clear to the SE to hit the arcs and travel back to the SW on a course to end up where they have been searching. It doesn't look like a straight southern course. It would be easier to believe it went SW of the arcs, if it went south at all. They have this plane bouncing all over the place. smh

 

[ElleElle]

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...wer-outage-linked-to-possible-hijacking-.html

"Explaining the possible reason behind the power cut, Peter Marosszeky, an aviation expert from the University of New South Wales said that the interruption of electrical power on board of the Beijing-bound plane could have been the result of a hijacking attempt.

“If there was a crew wanting to do something that was rather sinister or there were hijackers on board, they would remove power by opening up the bus-tie breakers and opening up the battery control switch. That way the aircraft virtually loses all power to just about all systems except the engines,” Marosszeky said"

 

[LinasK]

And I'm probably the only person still here who believes: the Captain did it. It was NOT a fire, nor mechanical malfunction, nor hijackers!!!

 

[2rose]

And I'm probably the only person still here who believes: the Captain did it.

Well one thing is that the pilot did NOT have a life insurance policy
... I'm sure the authorities would have checked that early on.

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/m...pilot-didnt-even-have-life-insurance-says-kin

May 19, 2014 MH370 pilot didn’t even have life insurance, says kin

---

http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/0...e-companies-pay-over-rm14-mln-to-next-of-kin/

May 9, 2014 MH370: Malaysian life insurance companies pay over RM14 mln to next of kin

What is the currency of Malaysia called ?
Wondering how much this is in dollars ?

 

[SouthAussie]

Please explain how it is logical the plane went from the Igrex waypoint clear to the SE to hit the arcs and travel back to the SW on a course to end up where they have been searching. It doesn't look like a straight southern course. It would be easier to believe it went SW of the arcs, if it went south at all. They have this plane bouncing all over the place. smh

Question: So the aircraft was quite straight though?
Martin Dolan: The aircraft, by our assessment, was flying straight. If you look at our more detailed report, you will see there are seven arcs that we're looking at, and we're saying the path of the aircraft took to intersect each of those arcs was the straight path.

Question: …. And as a separate question, you say a straight track. Are most of solutions consistent with a magnetic heading, or are they more consistent with waypoints being entered, so that this would be more a question of Great Circle [indistinct] the argument is straight bolted to the Earth's surface. Are they straight, as magnetic headings or as Great Circle? ….
Martin Dolan: Well, [indistinct] is that when we say straight, we do mean Great Circle, so straight in relation to a flat map of the Earth's surface. It's got a Great Circle across the globe. …..

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/interviews/2014/june/tr014.aspx


Honestly, it really is worth reading the report and the transcript of the press conference.
They both address many, many of the questions we all have.

 

[Roselvr]

Looks like the new area is where debris were originally spotted

Do we have anyone that helped with Tomnod still following the post? If so; how do we find out if the current assumed resting place has been looked at on Tomnod? I have the official map finder link; but there are 409 pages.

The yellow dotted line in this pic is the range limit of the fuel on board if the plane flew in a straight line, which it appears to have done once it started in a southerly direction.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26503141

 

[time]

Well one thing is that the pilot did NOT have a life insurance policy
... I'm sure the authorities would have checked that early on.

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/m...pilot-didnt-even-have-life-insurance-says-kin

May 19, 2014 MH370 pilot didn’t even have life insurance, says kin

---

http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/0...e-companies-pay-over-rm14-mln-to-next-of-kin/

May 9, 2014 MH370: Malaysian life insurance companies pay over RM14 mln to next of kin

What is the currency of Malaysia called ?
Wondering how much this is in dollars ?

1 Malaysian Ringgit = 0.31 US Dollar

 

[2rose]

1 Malaysian Ringgit = 0.31 US Dollar

I had tried looking it up too & found the same info you did ...
but I figured that this article can not be saying that the families are
ONLY being paid 14 x .31 = $4.34 ??? Because that would be insulting,
as it is waaay toooo low for the value of a family member.

 

[2rose]

Malaysia has not yet released publicly all of Inmarsat's raw data calculations.
However it HAS been shared with some others for verification.
Here is an article that names some of those verifying agencies ...

Meanwhile, former MAS chief pilot, Datuk Captain Nik Ahmad Huzlan Nik Hussain said he had no reason to disbelieve the analysis and calculations done by UK's Inmarsat and the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) following ATSB's announcement.

"The calculations based on the Inmarsat data were verified by
the United States' National Transport Safety Board (NTSB),
AAIB,
Malaysia's Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) and
the Perth-based Joint Action Coordination Centre (JACC)," he told Bernama.

He said all of those bodies, apart from DCA and NTSB, could be considered external bodies with almost no direct interest and they all agreed with the findings.

Nik Ahmad Huzlan also noted that these calculations were also verified by local experts familiar with the field of satellite communications from a technical angle.

"However, there are margins of error caused by utilisation of assumptions, which may result in the widening of the search area," he cautioned.

I also found another article where this same guy talks about the Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) ...

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014/05/17/mh370-silence-of-elt-getting-louder/

even though it was weird that MH370's ELT did not emit any signals, it had to be understood that the trigger for it to start emitting signals depends on the impact.

"The angle of impact is very important for it to trigger. For example, if aircraft made a hard landing on an airport's runway, the ELT will not trigger.

"If the ELT (trigger) is too sensitive, it would trigger every time an aircraft makes a hard landing. So it has a pre-determined value before it is triggered," he explained.

He noted that in the case of Air France (AF) 447, the ELT was not triggered as the aircraft crashed at a low speed, about 100kmh, which did not reach the trigger point for the ELT.

The ELT is designed to self-activate by certain triggers such as an impact or contact with water, similar to the black box's locator device.

"Although it (Air France 447) hit the water, it then sunk and the signal was not transmitted.

"Water will hamper the range, the trajectory and the power of the ELT signal. So the transmission range of the ELT may be limited due to the water," he said, stressing that it was the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (Acars) that gave the signal.

Well we know that the ACARS system had ceased functioning on MH370 ! ...
therefore it should be no surprise that there was no ELT in that instance.

 

[Hatfield]

And I'm probably the only person still here who believes: the Captain did it. It was NOT a fire, nor mechanical malfunction, nor hijackers!!!

Im keeping that option open on my list as well.

Ive long since stopped trying to pick just 1 theory. I kept flip-flopping too much so now I just keep a list of the possibles and put certain ones near the top.

 

[Hatfield]

Looks like the new area is where debris were originally spotted

I like the maps that show the proposed flight paths. That 2nd one is really neat and gives lots of info. If more of the maps would have proposed flight paths in addition to the arcs, I think the masses would have understood them better.
IMO the arc confuses a lot of people because some do not understand their relation to the proposed flight path.

 

[dotr]

Could this mean there is hope that the plane was directed to some place specific, as opposed to just flying randomly to nowhere?


http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...ysterious-mid-air-power-outage-observers-say/
"David Gleave, an aviation safety expert from Loughborough University, said the interruption to the power supply appeared to be the result of someone in the cockpit attempting to minimize the use of the aircraft’s systems. The action, he said, was consistent with an attempt to turn the plane’s communications and other systems off in an effort to avoid radar detection. “A person could be messing around in the cockpit which would lead to a power interruption,” he said. “It could be a deliberate act to switch off both engines for some time.”

Inmarsat, the satellite company, has confirmed the assessment, but says it does not know why the aircraft experienced a power failure.

Mr Gleave said: “There are credible mechanical failures that could cause it. But you would not then fly along for hundreds of miles and disappear in the Indian Ocean.”

 

[SeriouslySearching]

Question: So the aircraft was quite straight though?
Martin Dolan: The aircraft, by our assessment, was flying straight. If you look at our more detailed report, you will see there are seven arcs that we're looking at, and we're saying the path of the aircraft took to intersect each of those arcs was the straight path.

Question: …. And as a separate question, you say a straight track. Are most of solutions consistent with a magnetic heading, or are they more consistent with waypoints being entered, so that this would be more a question of Great Circle [indistinct] the argument is straight bolted to the Earth's surface. Are they straight, as magnetic headings or as Great Circle? ….
Martin Dolan: Well, [indistinct] is that when we say straight, we do mean Great Circle, so straight in relation to a flat map of the Earth's surface. It's got a Great Circle across the globe. …..

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/interviews/2014/june/tr014.aspx


Honestly, it really is worth reading the report and the transcript of the press conference.
They both address many, many of the questions we all have.

Great Circle or no Great Circle...they still have the plane taking a route that makes no sense from the Igrex. I don't need to study the transcript to see it.

The proof is in the pudding, so they say. If they ever find a piece of this plane...they will figure out either they were very right or very wrong in their assumptions and assessments of their data.