Ebola outbreak - general thread #5

[dotr]

Just wanted to pop on with this hopeful news, not sure if already been posted or not.

http://www.680news.com/2014/10/13/c...e-to-start-clinical-trials-in-healthy-humans/

"Human testing of an experimental Canadian-made Ebola vaccine began Monday, with federal officials saying the drug could be shipped to West Africa within months if it proves successful.

Health Minister Rona Ambrose said the launch of the vaccine’s first clinical trial marks a promising step in the global campaign to contain the virus, which the World Health Organization says has killed more than 4,000 people.

“This provides hope because if the Canadian vaccine is shown to be safe and effective, it will stop this devastating outbreak,” Ambrose said in a conference call from Calgary"

 

[SweetT]

Just wanted to pop on with this hopeful news, not sure if already been posted or not.

http://www.680news.com/2014/10/13/c...e-to-start-clinical-trials-in-healthy-humans/

"Human testing of an experimental Canadian-made Ebola vaccine began Monday, with federal officials saying the drug could be shipped to West Africa within months if it proves successful.

Health Minister Rona Ambrose said the launch of the vaccine’s first clinical trial marks a promising step in the global campaign to contain the virus, which the World Health Organization says has killed more than 4,000 people.

“This provides hope because if the Canadian vaccine is shown to be safe and effective, it will stop this devastating outbreak,” Ambrose said in a conference call from Calgary"

I hope they use volunteers and not unsuspecting military personnel jmo
Twenty vials of the vaccine have been sent to the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Maryland for testing on about 40 healthy volunteers, she said.

 

[zwiebel]

Lots of reports today that people are fleeing to South Africa, from nearby countries affected by Ebola.

 

[zwiebel]

The UK has said it is prepared. I somehow doubt that, myself...

 

[Muffet]

It depends on the reason you are "prepping". If it's Zombies, Y2K, or the "New World Order", then I think it's nuts. If it's for natural disaster such as an earthquake or tornado, you have a point.

In Texas, smart people become "preppers" to some degree once they've experienced the chaos that precedes and often follows a mere snowfall. lol

Truly, having things from extra food, water, medicines, bleach, and even generators is only wise, since you never know when services, supplies, or transportation will be interrupted, even if only because other people panicked unnecessarily.

So I would never ridicule anyone for being prepared for the worst well before it's needed, since this happens most winters :

(To be fair, we tend to get ICE instead of snow. Huge difference.)

 

[WichitaFalls]

What hospitals would those be? ty

Baylor or Parkland Hospital

 

[Lyra500]

Lots of reports today that people are fleeing to South Africa, from nearby countries affected by Ebola.

Are there links for any of those reports? I would be interested to know how reputable they are. Their geography isn't exactly tip-top for starters.

There are no countries 'near' to South Africa with Ebola.

Have a look at a map of Africa , I honestly do not think any countries affected by Ebola could be regarded as near to South Africa.

Here is a link:

http://recruitmentinafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Africa-Countries-1.jpg

The closest country with a current outbreak of Ebola is the Democratic Republic of Congo which is over 1000 miles away. As for the three countries with the worst outbreaks - if you look at the map you will see how far away Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia are.

 

[dotr]

"Johannesburg-based members of the immigrant communities from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, told the newspaper that there is a considerable number of people attempting to reach SA, most trying to reach it overland - a 5 000km trek.

One man said he alone knew of at least five people who were on their way."

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/West-Africans-flee-Ebola-head-to-SA-20141012

 

[Lyra500]

"Johannesburg-based members of the immigrant communities from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, told the newspaper that there is a considerable number of people attempting to reach SA, most trying to reach it overland - a 5 000km trek.

One man said he alone knew of at least five people who were on their way."

5000km - not exactly near then.

This is from that article:

Johannesburg-based members of the immigrant communities from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, told the newspaper that there is a considerable number of people attempting to reach SA, most trying to reach it overland - a 5 000km trek.

One man said he alone knew of at least five people who were on their way.

The newspaper reports that it would just take one carrier to change the situation in SA - particularly in a community that is largely housed in the densely populated city centre of Johannesburg - an ideal breeding ground for a communicable virus such as Ebola.

Unless it was an asymptomatic carrier, how would someone with Ebola trying to trek 5000km from West Africa possibly be a threat to SA?

If they actually had Ebola, they would die long before they got there - so possibly a risk in whatever country they died in.

Walking at a pace of 50km per day, it would take 100 days to cover that distance. Contracting and dying from Ebola would take a maximum of 21 days incubation plus another 7-10 days to die. Also, by the time they were 2-3 days into the active phase, they would be too weak to walk.

Someone mentioned asymptomatic carriers - does anyone know what the actual incidence of these carriers is? Also, why wouldn't their immune systems simply kill off the virus rather than allowing them to pass it on? Is there a timescale during which they can transmit before they kill of the virus?

 

[dotr]

5000km - not exactly near then.

http://www.health24.com/Medical/infectious-diseases/Ebola/Why-is-Ebola-so-contagious-20140728

"Theoretically, an outbreak anywhere on the globe, including South Africa that receives regular visitor influx from west Africa, is just a plane flight or boat or bus ride away.

These include illegal immigrants, asylum seekers, business and leasure travellers and contract workers.

Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi has said that there is no need for South Africans to panic."


..........................................................................................................................................................


Paris might be the city to watch..
rbbm.
"The largest concern is the spread of the disease to other countries. Infectious disease specialist Kamran Khan with St Michael's Hospital in Toronto told NPR that if the disease spreads, Paris would most likely be at risk because most international flights from Conakry, the city affected most by the Ebola outbreak in Guinea and home to about 1 million people, leave for Paris."

 

[Athena12]

I can't seem to multi quote today, and my typing will be messy, too

But the above by Besser, along with Frieden talking about re-evaluating the CDC advice given to these hospitals is very good to see.

Besser did an outstanding job as acting CDC director before Frieden was appointed to the surprise and dismay of many in the CDC and out (according to my contacts there and in USAMRIID (DOD infectious diseases branch in Maryland).

So perhaps, even if Frieden isn't fired, they are going to give Besser more of a voice in the decisions. ray:

Maybe we will see an admission that Frieden's claims of things need to be reversed (or as he called it reevaluated) (like any hospital in the country can handle ebola hdear: and his lowering the standard PPE needed for healthcare workers.

Short version: IMO, things will improve if Besser is given more heed and Friedan takes a back seat, even if only behind the scenes.

Muffet, why was there surprise and dismay when Frieden was appointed? Who appointed him? I know nothing about him, and your post sparked my curiosity. Thanks!

 

[nrdsb4]

Did they ever say the nurse breached protocol? The wording has been pretty passive - "there was a breach." That's just the logical conclusion - protocol is to prevent any contact with bodily fluids, though various means, and contact was obviously made. It doesn't mean the nurse did anything wrong - it could be the person helping her dress/undress, or the nurse could have touched her face or had a small cut without ever realizing it. It could be something very minor that they can't identify, since I doubt anyone was doing anything obviously dangerous in the hopes of getting ebola. Or it could be that the means they have chosen leave room for contact that hasn't been foreseen. That would still be a breach in protocol, even if CDC instructions had failed.

I agree. He never said the nurse did anything stupid. People are jumping to conclusions all over the place. Obviously there was a breach or she wouldn't be infected.

 

[Isabelle]

Living in Louisiana, I want to know why Texas does not have a landfill that can handle incinerated materials?

 

[Isabelle]

I'll forgive only when he suits up the same as this nurse did and go in and visit and assist in her care as she is struggling to survive, then maybe i'll forgive him. jmo idk

Trust me, that will never happen. I bet no one in nursing management at the hospital has paid her a visit either.

 

[nrdsb4]

Well, don't get air sick or any other illness while flying. Even if you are traveling FROM NOWHERE NEAR the ebola hot zone, your plane could be quarantined and invaded by people in hazmat.

And don't get on the same plane with anyone who tends to get air sick, even if they are not traveling from any ebola hot spot. Forget about making your connection if you are on that plane.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...rs-reported/X5DSbXfckXH9Q0PcGMsq4M/story.html

and this:http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2014/10/13/dallas-air-passenger-quarantined-for-medical-scare/

 

[Muffet]

Muffet, why was there surprise and dismay when Frieden was appointed? Who appointed him? I know nothing about him, and your post sparked my curiosity. Thanks!

I hope this doesn't go out of the scope of this thread... But to answer your question:

The biggest concern among the scientists was that he was more focused on matters beyond infectious diseases. His personality (considered arrogant, for lack of a better word) was controversial, which I and others were inclined to blame on youth and the political atmosphere in NY.

You can probably Google to find the more politically based complaints about his focus in NY.

The only thing that matters to me is where CDC funds have been directed and that statements and positions from the CDC director are based on science instead of politics or PR.

 

[doubt]

Has the possibility of inferior PPE been considered? I don't think it has. Holes in gloves, defective respirator masks, gowns. You won't hear about this because the goons in charge would never see that as a possibility just like they would not believe mechanical medical equipment can malfunction.

when i heard about the breach in protocol i didn't find it offensive at all for this very reason. nobody ever blamed the nurse. many people, it seems, chose to hear blame where none was.

there are many ways a breach in protocol can take place and you have described a very possible one. also, if a nurse is not adequately trained in how to use the PPE this constitutes a breach in protocol!

it just seems like people are so determined to take every single thing as a reason to get spun up.

too bad we don't have a surgeon general in the united states. could have been helpful at a time like this.

 

[Lyra500]

Did they ever say the nurse breached protocol? The wording has been pretty passive - "there was a breach." That's just the logical conclusion - protocol is to prevent any contact with bodily fluids, though various means, and contact was obviously made. It doesn't mean the nurse did anything wrong - it could be the person helping her dress/undress, or the nurse could have touched her face or had a small cut without ever realizing it. It could be something very minor that they can't identify, since I doubt anyone was doing anything obviously dangerous in the hopes of getting ebola. Or it could be that the means they have chosen leave room for contact that hasn't been foreseen. That would still be a breach in protocol, even if CDC instructions had failed.

When the press conference with mention of the 'breach' first happened, I posted this (way back in thread 4 now):

Please could you clarify (not in the US) - did he say breaches in protective gear or protective protocols? (Thanks!)

I am wondering about the following potential causes:
•Inadvisable 'economising' resulting in sub-standard PPE
•Inadvisable 'economising' resulting in provision of insufficient PPE (i.e. lower level of protection)
•Local protocols not providing all of the required steps to minimise risk
•Local training did not provide workers with adequate guidance on required infection control actions.
•Staff have not followed guidance scrupulously

I also did not interpret what he said as automatically meaning the nurse had done something wrong.

 

[otto]

Are there links for any of those reports? I would be interested to know how reputable they are. Their geography isn't exactly tip-top for starters.

There are no countries 'near' to South Africa with Ebola.

Have a look at a map of Africa , I honestly do not think any countries affected by Ebola could be regarded as near to South Africa.

Here is a link:

http://recruitmentinafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Africa-Countries-1.jpg

The closest country with a current outbreak of Ebola is the Democratic Republic of Congo which is over 1000 miles away. As for the three countries with the worst outbreaks - if you look at the map you will see how far away Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia are.

There are quite a few articles about people wanting to flee Ebola outbreak areas.

"Liberians are apparently flooding Roberts International Airport in Harbel, Liberia, in an attempt to flee the Ebola-struck country, raising fears that more people infected with Ebola will fly into America. Thomas Eric Duncan, the 40-year-old Liberian national who was diagnosed with Ebola a few days after arriving in Dallas, Texas, may have started a trend of “Ebola tourism” in which Liberians leave their country to seek better treatment for the disease."

http://www.infowars.com/report-liberians-flood-airport-attempting-to-flee-ebola-struck-country/

"Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly, commander of the U.S. Southern Command, predicted last week that the Ebola virus will not be contained in West Africa, and if infected people flee those countries and spread the disease to Central and South America, it could cause “mass migration into the United States” of those seeking treatment.

“If it breaks out, it’s literally, ‘Katie bar the door,’ and there will be mass migration into the United States,” Kelly said in remarks to the National Defense University on Tuesday. “They will run away from Ebola, or if they suspect they are infected, they will try to get to the United States for treatment."

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pen...tial-ebola-driven-mass-migration-south-border

"Individuals who have flown recently from one or more of the affected countries suggested that travelers could easily subvert the screening procedures — and might have incentive to do so: Compared with the depleted medical resources in the West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the prospect of hospital care in the U.S. may offer an Ebola-exposed person the only chance to survive.

The deteriorating conditions in Africa make it more likely additional cases of Ebola will appear in the United States and officials are pushing for increased screenings at airports.

A person could pass body temperature checks performed at the airports by taking ibuprofen or any common analgesic. And prospective passengers have much to fear from identifying themselves as sick, said Kim Beer, a resident of Freetown, the capital of Sierra Leone, who is working to get medical supplies into the country to cope with Ebola.

"It is highly unlikely that someone would acknowledge having a fever, or simply feeling unwell," Beer said via email. "Not only will they probably not get on the flight — they may even be taken to/required to go to a 'holding facility' where they would have to stay for days until it is confirmed that it is not caused by Ebola. That is just about the last place one would want to go."

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1

 

[Muffet]

There are quite a few articles about people wanting to flee Ebola outbreak areas.

"Liberians are apparently flooding Roberts International Airport in Harbel, Liberia, in an attempt to flee the Ebola-struck country, raising fears that more people infected with Ebola will fly into America. Thomas Eric Duncan, the 40-year-old Liberian national who was diagnosed with Ebola a few days after arriving in Dallas, Texas, may have started a trend of “Ebola tourism” in which Liberians leave their country to seek better treatment for the disease."

http://www.infowars.com/report-liberians-flood-airport-attempting-to-flee-ebola-struck-country/

"Marine Corps Gen. John Kelly, commander of the U.S. Southern Command, predicted last week that the Ebola virus will not be contained in West Africa, and if infected people flee those countries and spread the disease to Central and South America, it could cause “mass migration into the United States” of those seeking treatment.

“If it breaks out, it’s literally, ‘Katie bar the door,’ and there will be mass migration into the United States,” Kelly said in remarks to the National Defense University on Tuesday. “They will run away from Ebola, or if they suspect they are infected, they will try to get to the United States for treatment."

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pen...tial-ebola-driven-mass-migration-south-border

"Individuals who have flown recently from one or more of the affected countries suggested that travelers could easily subvert the screening procedures — and might have incentive to do so: Compared with the depleted medical resources in the West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, the prospect of hospital care in the U.S. may offer an Ebola-exposed person the only chance to survive.

The deteriorating conditions in Africa make it more likely additional cases of Ebola will appear in the United States and officials are pushing for increased screenings at airports.

A person could pass body temperature checks performed at the airports by taking ibuprofen or any common analgesic. And prospective passengers have much to fear from identifying themselves as sick, said Kim Beer, a resident of Freetown, the capital of Sierra Leone, who is working to get medical supplies into the country to cope with Ebola.

"It is highly unlikely that someone would acknowledge having a fever, or simply feeling unwell," Beer said via email. "Not only will they probably not get on the flight — they may even be taken to/required to go to a 'holding facility' where they would have to stay for days until it is confirmed that it is not caused by Ebola. That is just about the last place one would want to go."

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1

Just a tip - Infowars isn't a source I'd depend on... I have seen similar reports, but would want it backed by other sources, IYKWIM

(Like your LA times one)