CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[Officer Dibble]

Another week goes by and still no answers

 

[SpideySense]

MOO

The weather data from that day just keeps providing solid information that lightning was the culprit.

All the images attached below are from https://weather.us/satellite/mariposa/satellite-superhd-15min/20210815-2050z.html . On the attached satellite images, the family's final location on the trail is the red star and the El Portal weather station is the blue dot, both plotted to the best of my ability.

The family was underneath cloud cover between 1:30pm and 2:50pm PDT that day. Significantly, the El Portal weather station was not (yes, I mapped that station's location). So the temperatures recorded at El Portal between those hours (107F-109F) become inapplicable to this family, IMO.

Moreover, that cloud contained a thunderhead. It was a storm cloud (I'm not a meteorologist so please don't take me at my word - this case has taught me so much from all the research, but I'd encourage others to look into this stuff themselves, obviously) Radar images taken from the same timeframe show the precipitation reflectivity contained in the cloud's tower, and how it intensifies within 22 minutes and then dissipates almost as quickly.

They were directly under a storm cell for over an hour. Lightning could have gotten them in these mid-day storms, or later during the evening ones. But two storms passing over this family in one day, significantly increases the odds they encountered lightning.

I'm sure LE has much better weather data than this, and has had it for much longer. They've been connecting the same dots way more quickly and efficiently than I am. If their investigation finds that it was the mid-day storm that hit this family, that's even more tragic because it wasn't forecast like the evening storms were. They could not have had forewarning, even if they'd done everything right and double-checked the weather. It would have been a true "freak" summer storm that caught them off guard.

MOO

 

[Parsnip]

A first-hand account of experiencing algal blooms:
Commentary: My firsthand experience with an algal bloom | Coastal Review

 

[Yvettea]

Gerrish and Chung had tried their best to hike the trail but the air was heavy. Fog shrouded the top of the trail but they broke through the fog after 1.5 miles. Now breathing was even harder not easier. It was as if their lungs were becoming paralyzed. What they didn’t know was the toxin from the algal blooms had aerosolized turning the air into a toxic layer held down by the fog. Without the fog it would dissipate but as it was it filled their lungs with its toxic breath affecting the dog first then the baby. As Gerrish removed the baby’s pack he realized he could hardly gbreath. Ellen was coming toward him gasping for air. She dropped before she reached him. As Gerrish sat back on his heels he saw there would be no rescue from this, whatever it was. He couldn’t breathe any longer.

This was only conjecture on my part after reading about this algae and it’s toxins. I can hardly imagine how this cruelty happened to this family. It’s as if something deadly enshrouded them. MOO

 

[annpats]

I disagree here as regards humid tropical heat. IME it is easier to deal with tropical heat than with very dry high temperatures.

Not in my experience. In dry high heat, you can take shade and it helps.

In high humidity heat, there is nothing you can do. Shade doesn't help, and it's cloying and unbearable and you can even struggle to breathe cleanly and is saps your energy quickly.

I was fine in Oman and India at 40°c +, it was manageable.
In Burma and the Philippines, with high humidity, I struggled immensely.
I also sweated more.

 

[SpideySense]

MOO

The weather data from that day just keeps providing solid information that lightning was the culprit.

All the images attached below are from https://weather.us/satellite/mariposa/satellite-superhd-15min/20210815-2050z.html . On the attached satellite images, the family's final location on the trail is the red star and the El Portal weather station is the blue dot, both plotted to the best of my ability.

The family was underneath cloud cover between 1:30pm and 2:50pm PDT that day. Significantly, the El Portal weather station was not (yes, I mapped that station's location). So the temperatures recorded at El Portal between those hours (107F-109F) become inapplicable to this family, IMO.

Moreover, that cloud contained a thunderhead. It was a storm cloud (I'm not a meteorologist so please don't take me at my word - this case has taught me so much from all the research, but I'd encourage others to look into this stuff themselves, obviously) Radar images taken from the same timeframe show the precipitation reflectivity contained in the cloud's tower, and how it intensifies within 22 minutes and then dissipates almost as quickly.

They were directly under a storm cell for over an hour. Lightning could have gotten them in these mid-day storms, or later during the evening ones. But two storms passing over this family in one day, significantly increases the odds they encountered lightning.

I'm sure LE has much better weather data than this, and has had it for much longer. They've been connecting the same dots way more quickly and efficiently than I am. If their investigation finds that it was the mid-day storm that hit this family, that's even more tragic because it wasn't forecast like the evening storms were. They could not have had forewarning, even if they'd done everything right and double-checked the weather. It would have been a true "freak" summer storm that caught them off guard.

MOO

@Lexiintoronto, I didn’t even think to look at radar and satellite images for earlier in the day! I wish I’d found these before I posted earlier about the evening storms. I’ve assumed they spent hours at the river, but also I would not have expected storms at 1 or 2pm. So many twists and turns in this.

MOO

 

[Deleted member 292879]

I've been doing some research. It looks like JG had been using AllTrails a good bit earlier in Spring 2021 for logging hikes and scouting trails. I could find no evidence he'd used other apps since. Maybe he was just not recording his/their most recent hikes. But the hikes he recorded until then were mostly 3-5 miles and moderate.

A couple of things of note. The Savage-Lundy Trail isn't even listed in AllTrails. Two closely related entries are the Hite Cove Road and Hites Cove Trail. Both are indicated as moderate trails with moderate elevation changes. What if they thought they were on one of these and never intended to be on the Savage-Lundy trail? After realizing their mistake, they turned around and started back up. Apart from evidence JG had scouted an 8 mile loop by app or a computer, I've not seen confirming evidence like footprints etc.that they actually completed such a distance. In other words, they never intended to be on a trail with a 2900 foot descent and then an equivalent ascent for return. The burned terrain might have made it even harder to realize this mistake.

BBM. You raise a great point here. I still think they knew about Savage-Lundy if Jonathan read the AllTrails reviews, but perhaps you're onto something that they actually descended via Hite Cove OHV Trail because it seemed like a less steep descent. Then, instead of doing an out-and-back, they continued along the river and came up Savage-Lundy, having not anticipated or planned on doing such a long or arduous hike.

Without cell service, they might not have been able to get an accurate GPS location of where they were that whole time. I've been able to get a rough estimate with zero bars while hiking and trail running, enough to generally get my bearings, but in an unfamiliar territory, I suspect this would be harder, and I might decide, if I was on a loop, that it was a toss-up whether I turned back or kept going to do the full loop. For visual interest, I might continue to do the loop, even with my 18mo son along for the ride. MOO.

 

[Deleted member 292879]

Updates from SacBee. Nothing entirely new, but great reporting from them, as usual. I was able to view this without a login by accessing it via Google. (It's also accessible if you sign up for the site for free).

https://www.sacbee.com/article254080593.html

 

[deadfoot13]

I’ve never heard of that rule! We have rattlesnakes so that as well as erosion makes it so we are constantly cautioned not to go off trail.

Here in NY it's a big thing: Nature's call: How to properly go to the bathroom in the woods (video)

 

[HannahJJJ]

It appears that hiking was a regular activity for this family based on their social media accounts, and a weekend hike close to home would likely not be extraordinarily notable.
All MOO.

That's what I've read that hiking was a regular activity...before the baby was born. But you're saying that they took the baby and dog with them on a regular basis? Does anyone know where they hiked in the last month, taking the dog and baby with them?

 

[Deleted member 292879]

Hello.
My family and I actually live about 60 miles due west of this area, so we are locals paying attention to this case.
My spouse and I used to live in Yosemite Valley as we worked there, we also used to drive that highway daily to and from work after we moved out of the Valley and into Mariposa town.
We know quite a bit the terrain very very well, we had worked as part of a labor crew rebuilding campgrounds along the Merced River downstream.

We are not liking the suspicion of "Toxic Algae Bloom" very much. Having lived in and around the area for many years, and now living in area with local ponds and two lakes, Algae Bloom happens all the time. It takes really high amounts of it to kill humans, and although "Toxic Algae Bloom" can be inhaled, again, it would take incredibly high concentrations of it to kill rapidly all at once.
We camped one weekend many years ago at a campground right next to the lake at Salton Sea, spent all night breathing that air, woke up to hundreds of dead fish along the lake shore (now THAT was a terrible smell) BUT we did NOT die from those fumes, even at such high levels.

If we go back to the carbon monoxide theory from the air from the mines — there is an odd, overlooked possibility. So, where we live in the foothills, we have roads going uphill and down and around the bends. We can drive along the top ridge of the hill and fry in 110 degrees F, go down the hill and through a narrow section between hills and drive through an air pocket of cooler air - air cooled being in the shade on the north side of the hill all day. That cool air does not move very fast or at all when the winds do not blow. So an air pocket could have formed in the apex of the "V" section of the trail where the family was found. That "V" section - those parts are known to have water draining between the sections of hillside meeting together, it could have an opening to an underground spring. If the air does not move very fast from lack of winds moving air pockets around, underground gases could have collected and formed an air pocket there, which they all could have breathed. If the winds blew overnight and dispersed the gases, no trace of the gases would be found present.

There is one more thing that is often very much overlooked and that is there is a possibility of an underground volcano fissure along that area. The name "Devil's Gulch", "Devil's Peak", and further south east — "Devil's Postpile", an area of basalt columns formed by volcanic activity right next to June Mountain and Mammoth Mountain, known dormant volcanos — right on the other side of Yosemite NP...

Bumping this post back up (snipped the second half) because this is truly a gift to have on this thread, @FlowergirlinWard1! Thank you. I did notice that Devil Gulch mine is visible on Google Earth (hard to see much besides trails leading to the site), as are the fissures from the Blossom #1 mine, which is right along the river, about halfway point on the full loop. I wonder if these could be a factor in the air pocket phenomenon you discussed? MOO.

Here are two screenshots of Blossom #1 mine (along the river after Marble Point) and Devil Gulch mine (farther along the river, heading toward Savage-Lundy, across the water from the trail). Both labeled. My source for the mine GPS coordinates is the map at Mining Towns in the Western United States.

 

[lotus777]

I really have a hard time believing that extreme heat or ground lightning killed them all.
Anyone with a common sense would know if you're hiking on a 100F temp., you're not gonna just sit anywhere to rest.
You'd look for trees or shaded area or find a creek.
Just think about it, it's only going to get even hotter by not moving at all.
You're not gonna be able to survive if you waste anymore of time, you gotta get up and start moving.
that's what most if not all, hikers' bodies were found before succumbing to heat.
They were all hiking so they're always moving whether it gets hot or not till they collapse,
there's not a single case that I know where a healthy hiker would just stay seated and die calmly without fighting himself to go on.

And about the ground lightning.
please show me where there was a case of ground lightning leaving not a single trace of its effect.
a phone could be burnt/scorched, skin/hair may show signs of lightning strike,
and FGS even ants or insects would be found dead in the area.

There's reportedly little to no shade in this area due to a fire a few years ago.

And heat stroke is known to disorient those suffering from it, so what makes sense in a situation isn't necessarily what they'd do.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I’ve never heard of that rule! We have rattlesnakes so that as well as erosion makes it so we are constantly cautioned not to go off trail.

I am only aware of the rule about avoiding water (200 ft if I recall). Going off trail to pee is more of a social/privacy issue only, and if I knew there was no one around I would pee directly on the trail or only one or two steps off. Pooping of course is a different story because you need to be able to dig/bury and cover etc.

Gerrish and Chung had tried their best to hike the trail but the air was heavy. Fog shrouded the top of the trail but they broke through the fog after 1.5 miles. Now breathing was even harder not easier. It was as if their lungs were becoming paralyzed. What they didn’t know was the toxin from the algal blooms had aerosolized turning the air into a toxic layer held down by the

The idea of fog aerosolizing the toxic algae is interesting. However I don't think there was any way for fog to have been present in an area with such warm temperatures and lacking high humidity. MOO

Has burning poison oak been discussed yet?
I was thinking about various fires in the area and the effect of this in the air/breathing it in.

There were AFAIK no live fires actually near them -- much of California has been smoky for months this summer even where the actual fires are distant. I have been breathing smoke for months now and my local forest has had fewer fires than usual this summer and my immediate area none at all. Unless both adults had such an extreme allergy to poison oak that this would affect them from hundreds of miles away (in which case they would not IMO live where it is common), this doesn't make sense to me.

The mother was excited about the new baby carrier, however, and did share a photo of it on social media

RSBM

A thought -- I personally would not try out new equipment on the hardest trail in the area, and especially not on a day that pushes the limits heatwise. I wonder if something about the new carrier -- perhaps a frequent need to adjust baby, or straps on the adult, slowed them down.

With the risks presented by the extreme heat combined with extreme aggressiveness of the trail, I think anything that slowed them down could have become a fatal delay.

MOO

 

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

Gerrish is not too far from fifty years old...45/46? I must really be getting old because I wouldn't take him to be 45.

Build testable apps for Android (Google I/O'19) - YouTube

It depends on which photo you look at. There was one photo of him, that showed grey hair coming in. A video posted of him lecturing at Google clearly was taken when he was perhaps in his late 30's, or perhaps just 40, still looking relatively young.

 

[Seattle1]

https://www.sacbee.com/article254080593.html

Sept 8, 2021

[..]

Few clues have been shared by investigators working to determine how a family and their dog died a little over three weeks ago while hiking in Sierra National Forest, in a remote section of Mariposa County southwest of Yosemite National Park.

Known harmful algae blooms in the south fork of the Merced River, near where the family was mysteriously found dead along the Savage-Lundy Trail in Devil’s Gulch, are among the hazards being considered.

[..]

The results of toxicology tests for the Mariposa family have not been shared.

In response to a question during Thursday’s sheriff update, about whether toxicology results were back yet, Briese said, “Some are, yes. But we still do not have an exact cause of death yet.”

 

[EndoraXplorer]

(RSBM) ...no one would stay seated and die without fighting.
If scorching heat is getting the best of you, you know it's time for a do or die situation.
Him sitting down means he was still under control, not yet disoriented from overheat.

If you look at the Philip Kreycik case, that is pretty much exactly what happened. He went and sat under a tree and passed away there. Have you read the article about heat stroke symptoms? What It Feels Like to Die from Heatstroke

 

[HannahJJJ]

It depends on which photo you look at. There was one photo of him, that showed grey hair coming in. A video posted of him lecturing at Google clearly was taken when he was perhaps in his late 30's, or perhaps just 40, still looking relatively young.

i believe the you tube link was 2019, when he was 43 or so?

 

[MrsColumbo79]

Whatever ‘natural phenomena’ reason we are going to get in the end, I know for a fact in about 20 years when aliens take over we will all be going ‘I can’t believe I fell for that algae/lightening excuse!’

 

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

i believe the you tube link was 2019, when he was 43 or so?

Thanks for the fact check. He looks noticeably younger in that vid, than in a recent photo I saw, where his hair was in a ponytail, and was starting to grey.

 

[carbuff]

I’ve never heard of that rule! We have rattlesnakes so that as well as erosion makes it so we are constantly cautioned not to go off trail.

I was mistaken about EC being found off the trail, so it's a moot point anyway. But it
sounds like each area has its own regulations depending on local and regional conditions.

I'm fascinated by how different those conditions are in the CA mountains versus New England. If I were to visit and go for a hike, I could see how I might totally misjudge the trail, the amount of water needed, how hot it was going to be, whether I could pee somewhere, etc.