Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #13

[Sarahlou]

here are my thoughts

• Police don't suspect any crime (in both fishermen and red van theory)
• Their main hypothesis is still she is in the water
• But they are not 100% sure she went into the water
• Police want some evidence to rule out she left the field onto Garstang road
• NB has some vulnerabilities (can't be revealed for privacy) that made her high risk.

I can only think these 3 possibilities

• NB has left the field onto Garstang road and taken her own life somewhere else (nearby).
• NB left on her own volition
• NB is in the river but police divers somehow missed her

And I don't think NB's vulnerability is 'suicidal' - because if she is found dead and taken her own life it is going to be revealed eventually!

If she is in the river how could they prove she didn't just fall in though?
If someone didn't want their death ruled as suicide then making it look like an accident could definitely be a possibility.

 

[steelo]

The police mentioned/referred to the dog moving between the bench and the gate.
If NB wanted to disappear or commit suicide, - and I realise this post may be removed for suggesting that outcome - then going back through the gate, leaving her belongings on the bench, she would be encouraging the dog to remain with the items to ensure they were found. She could then make her way through undergrowth towards the weir knowing that entering the water at/beyond the weir was more likely to ensure she wouldn't be found.
Maybe the demeanor of her other half can now be viewed as he knows the inevitable/worst fear may have occured and is holding hope that she's just walked off somewhere which is why he wants such a thorough search of all land locations in the surrounding area, hoping shes just needing some time to herself.

If someone has the mentality to want to be gone then they are more than capable of doing so.

 

[supersleuth123]

Journalists and reporters had ~24hrs to prepare good questions, and those are what they came up with? Give me strength.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Not to sound morbid, but if someone were to take their own life in that river, where would be the deepest part relative to the bench area? I wonder if this was the case she walked further up or down the river, telling the dog to stay by the bench, so actually the point of entry was further away, which is why she wasn't found in the initial searches, and has since moved over time.

 

[Liverpool86]

Sadly thats not how suicide works

Having lost someone to suicide (and also been there myself) I’m aware of how it works most of the time. It’s possible. But not probable. IMO it’s highly unlikely she would go in the calm, slow river to commit suicide. Even if she did, how on earth does one do so in a such a shallow river too? The body’s response is to fight it - even if it’s something you want.

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Press asking about 'vulnerabilities'.
Police aren't looking to elaborate.
But this is why she was graded high risk.
Mental health issues, pregnancy??

So let me get this straight. The police are saying Nicola never left those fields, there's no 3rd party involved (though they're keeping an open mind) and there's been an exhaustive, detailed search of everything in the location, the river all the way to the sea and yet .... Nicola has still not been located.
Right.

Someone I know took his life during lockdown and as he had left the house stating his intentions, it caused a huge search by all the local people, police and search and rescue and was widely publicised. He wasn't found for weeks despite being very close to home.

However, I personally don't think NB took her life.

 

[bringmeacupoft]

I'm more confused by this case than ever. The recent news from the press conference seems to contradict the way the family have queried the search. I'm at a complete loss

I came away with the same feeling, but to be fair the family when speaking directly have an expressed their ‘satisfaction’ with LE and that they are doing a good job. I’ve found the reports where they’re not happy come via 3rd party. It’s a difficult one to navigate.

I think in all probability they’re on a rollercoaster and their reaction change depending on information they receive.

 

[SuperEye]

I wonder if the vulnerability was mentioned on the first call to the police. IMO I hope there is evidence of the said vulnerability and is not just the say so of the caller.

 

[markoid]

Would just like to say the SIO doesn't need to be a sensational public speaker - she is an investigator and sounds to me like a very good one. She did a great job under intense pressure.

 

[ginnyw]

The media are vermin, I can see them straight on the phone calling up the 'self-appointed' spokesperson for the family, Emma White to shed more light on this. I bet she is itching to get on the camera again.

IMO this is a little unfair. I doubt that EW would ever reveal on camera what her friend's specific vulnerabilities were. JMO.

 

[Mr X]

Would be interesting to know how many people choose to take their lives via jumping into a seemingly calm river.

If I was intent on dying I probably wouldn’t choose to do it that way.

I would. Far better than doing something which risks a relative finding you.

I know someone on a boat who once saw woman walk into the Thames and deliberately drown herself. He was other side of the River this was before mobile phones. She died. Police were called but it was too late.

People have different attitudes but does anyone really think they have a right to intervene in someone doing something like that ?

IMO there may have been a witness who reported this anonymously and said what happened.

What doesn't make sense is not finding the body.
One thing to remember if you see someone in the process of drowning do NOT get in the water with them as they may well pull you under and stand on you in an attempt to save their own life.

 

[CriLondon]

Vulnerabilities .
Plural .

 

[Luxee]

Major difference. She was found

Sally Allen went missing on 26th December. Her body was found on 3rd February.

https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/story/2016-02-05/police-confirm-body-found-is-missing-sally-allan/

 

[Awaywego]

The specific vulnerabilities could be MH related hence wanting them to remain private but still point to a non intentional drowning, there are some MH diagnosis and/or medication that might (at a specific time in their illness) lead someone to be more prone to poor decision making, risk taking behaviour, misjudging risks etc.

 

[geelongcate]

but if the family, her partner doesn't want to reveal that - what can LP do?

Oh sure, I agree. I'm slightly wondering why they mentioned them at all, unless it was to hint at suicide (or perhaps a medical incident associated with an illness or pregnancy) without wanting to state that explicitly. Of course, that itself is speculation!

 

[cottonweaver]

I came away with the same feeling, but to be fair the family when speaking directly have an expressed their ‘satisfaction’ with LE and that they are doing a good job. I’ve found the reports where they’re not happy come via 3rd party. It’s a difficult one to navigate.

I think in all probability they’re on a rollercoaster and their reaction change depending on information they receive.

agree to all but just want to add that it does now take me back to the earliest appeals from Nicola's mum & dad. ( '... if you've gone off for any reason')
( caveat: obviously ' vulnerabilities' could be anything incl physical, doesn't have to be mental health)

 

[SuperEye]

I remember someone quoting that Nicola would "do anything for that dog." I very much doubt she would choose to leave it alone in the field. If she wanted to take her own life there are numerous ways to go about it without it affecting the safety of a dog which she treated "like a third child."

 

[cottonweaver]

Oh sure, I agree. I'm slightly wondering why they mentioned them at all, unless it was to hint at suicide (or perhaps a medical incident associated with an illness or pregnancy) without wanting to state that explicitly. Of course, that itself is speculation!

possibly a reporter asked why she'd been categorised as High Risk?? but I'd need to rewind and check that because it's a v important question you ask

 

[Observe_dont_Absorb]

Suicide is in the top 5 reasons for a misper amongst adults and suicide by drowning is a method used by around 4% of female adults sadly.

I wonder what the statistics show for the death rate of women in their 40s in the UK who have died suddenly and unexpectedly by suicide compared to how many are murdered by rapist/murderers, murdered during a conflict that escalates to violence, murdered by their partner, murdered by an ex partner, murdered by someone else who know them well (neighbour / colleague / relative).

The biggest indicator of someone dying by suicide in their 40s is whether they have made previous attempts. Most people have made several attempts by the time they 'complete' suicide.

My personal opinion is no way has NB taken her life. If she was 'vulnerable' then it was for other reasons that I have in mind but can't state openly here. JMO MOO

 

[Kor_Phaeron]

Re: Today's press conference.

LP have stated that Nicola carries her phone in her hand whilst on teams calls (corroborated by witness).
LP have also stated that the phone was found on the bench, with the harness/lead found halfway between the bench and the river itself.

This strongly suggests to me that NB had sat on the bench to reattach Willow's harness, placing the phone on the bench beside her in the process to free up her hands. There is no great distance between the bench and the bank of the river so I could very much picture the harness being dropped on the ground in front of the bench where NB was attempting to reattach it.
The question is then, what caused the failure in reattaching the harness before NB vanished?

IMO, the most likely explanation is that something caused Willow to bolt. This would explain NB dropping the harness in situ to pursue Willow, possibly stumbling in the process and falling into the river which is in the direction NB would be facing at the time.
The route is one that was taken regularly by NB and Willow, and I'd imagine that the bench was the usual convenient spot for reattaching the harness. Perhaps something occurred on this particular day that spooked Willow. The most likely explanation for this I would imagine would be another, unfamiliar dog. In which case we may have a key witness that has not come forward - perhaps (in their mind) for very good reason!

The other (more fanciful) scenario would be that NB sitting on the bench distracted by reattaching the harness would be the opportune moment to strike from an abductors viewpoint. Not only would she be prone due to being sat on the bench, but her field of view would be significantly reduced by bending over to reattach the harness at that moment.

Either way, I am very much of the opinion now that whatever happened, happened right at that very moment literally seconds after NB sat on the bench, placed her phone down and prepared to put Willow's harness back on.