WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #5

[cjoosten]

In this link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Sea...ear-old-son-fiance-believes-could-be-sinister

On the 'Sunday:10:30 a.m' timeline it says, “The back hatch and the side door was open,” Pribbenow said. “The front end had gone in the mud and you could see where the wheels had spun in trying to back out.” (the van was back end in the bay).

First it says the van was trying to 'back out', then in parenthesis it says, "(the van was back end in the bay).

Maybe it's just wrong wording, or I'm just not getting it.
The front end was in the water, correct?

 

[Calliope]

In this link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Sea...ear-old-son-fiance-believes-could-be-sinister

On the 'Sunday:10:30 a.m' timeline it says, “The back hatch and the side door was open,” Pribbenow said. “The front end had gone in the mud and you could see where the wheels had spun in trying to back out.” (the van was back end in the bay).

First it says the van was trying to 'back out', then in parenthesis it says, "(the van was back end in the bay).

Maybe it's just wrong wording, or I'm just not getting it.
The front end was in the water, correct?

No, it was found backed to the water, with the rear hatch up and side door open.

 

[cjoosten]

No, it was found backed to the water, with the rear hatch up and side door open.

Wow, I had always thought she drove straight in (very dark, not knowing there was water in front of her). But to drive up to the water, realize it's water, and then somehow reverse around and back up into it, is nuts.

My opinion is that she was very, VERY drunk....maybe to the point of blackout.

 

[RubyRed]

In this link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Sea...ear-old-son-fiance-believes-could-be-sinister

On the 'Sunday:10:30 a.m' timeline it says, “The back hatch and the side door was open,” Pribbenow said. “The front end had gone in the mud and you could see where the wheels had spun in trying to back out.” (the van was back end in the bay).

First it says the van was trying to 'back out', then in parenthesis it says, "(the van was back end in the bay).

Maybe it's just wrong wording, or I'm just not getting it.
The front end was in the water, correct?

Here is the pic of how the van was found.

http://www.king5.com/news/local/Nat...mom-and-son-87825797.html?gallery=y&c=y&img=1

 

[Calliope]

Wow, I had always thought she drove straight in (not knowing there was water in front of her). But to drive up to the water, realize it's water, and then somehow reverse around and back up into it, is nuts.

My opinion is that she was very, VERY drunk....maybe to the point of blackout.

Funny no one along the way smelled alcohol or noted that she was intoxicated.

IMO, she couldn't have made it down that narrow, steep, dark path if she was very drunk. In fact, IF she is the one who drove the van to the beach, she navigated it very well --- from the photos taken from both sides of the van, I noticed no vegetation or obvious damage that could have come from the path leading down. That was a fairly large vehicle for such a narrow path; if I tried it stone-cold sober I'd still probably have sticks and leaves hung up in the nooks and crannies of the car.

 

[cjoosten]

Funny no one along the way smelled alcohol or noted that she was intoxicated.

IMO, she couldn't have made it down that narrow, steep, dark path if she was very drunk. In fact, IF she is the one who drove the van to the beach, she navigated it very well --- from the photos taken from both sides of the van, I noticed no vegetation or obvious damage that could have come from the path leading down. That was a fairly large vehicle for such a narrow path; if I tried it stone-cold sober I'd still probably have sticks and leaves hung up in the nooks and crannies of the car.

Thanks, RubyRed, for the pic.

You know, Calliope, I wondered the same thing....noone could tell, or smell, that she had been drinking? What? Maybe she was just "good" at it...and had gum or mints in her car. Plus, white wine doesn't give off 'much' of an odor as other alcohols do (IMO). However, watching the surveillance videos of her I noticed some mannerisms in her that indicated intoxication (the sudden stops, the locking of the knees, slight swaying). I don't know her, but I've been around enough to suspect that.

Again, it's weird that no one else that night mentioned "drunk"...just stressed out, etc.

I have a friend who is a recovering alcoholic. He hid it very well from us for a long time. Times we thought he was fine, he had actually drank entire bottles (not large ones) of vodka. He hid it very well....same may be the case with Shantina. Just opinions, though.

So, Calliope, are you thinking "foul play"? Just curious. I thought that for a long time, but now I'm leaning away from that.

 

[sarx]

sarx, what scent item is usually sought as an ideal one for the dogs to track? Is it a well-worn shoe or sock, since the dog's nose follows close to the ground where the subject's feet (shod or not) touch the ground? Or a worn, unwashed top or...what?

Just interested to know. Thanks!

Anything that hasn't been worn by another person! Socks are generally safe cuz not a lot of people share them, lol. Pillow cases can be a great source. Pretty much everything that comes into contact with a person has their scent on it (door knobs, hairbrushes, towels, etc) but ideally you want something that is uncontaminated by other people.

 

[celticgo]

I keep checking back hoping for an update on SS. I tend to agree with the Occam's razor theory, in that the simplest solution is usually the correct one. (note the word usually here). I think she got lost. Got disoriented due to drinking and/or a combo of possible head trauma. It was late, she accidentally drove her car into the river. Perhaps she tried to get out of the car and was still disoriented and her son tried to help her and they both got swept away by the current.

I would like to know if in this particular place in the river, how strong is the current?

I noticed her fiance took down his site as well. Poor guy, I am praying for him too.

 

[powayparent]

Perhaps she tried to get out of the car and was still disoriented and her son tried to help her and they both got swept away by the current.

I would like to know if in this particular place in the river, how strong is the current?

It's not a river, it's a sound (deep inlet). It has substantial tidal currents but nothing like a rushing river. The floor on a minivan is usually less than 1 foot from the ground. No one knows how deep it was when they exited the van but my thought is there would have been substantial water and associated noise well before 18".

 

[Lipin One]

In this link:
http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Sea...ear-old-son-fiance-believes-could-be-sinister

On the 'Sunday:10:30 a.m' timeline it says, “The back hatch and the side door was open,” Pribbenow said. “The front end had gone in the mud and you could see where the wheels had spun in trying to back out.” (the van was back end in the bay).

First it says the van was trying to 'back out', then in parenthesis it says, "(the van was back end in the bay).

Maybe it's just wrong wording, or I'm just not getting it.
The front end was in the water, correct?

This goes back to something I mentioned way back then... that the mud on the windshields could be the result of two things. Backing up... the mud flicks up and forth... driving forth would make the mud flick down and backwards (assuming front wheel drive.)

The other thing would be if she was following another vehicle and the vehicle was driving in mud, which would splatter on the windshields if the van was following.

To me the pattern says she was trying to back up, and the driver's side front tire was the one doing most of the mess.

Either she, or whoever was driving, was trying to back into the water, or was trying to get unstuck by driving back and forth.

IMHO

 

[luckyducky]

6 cups in 1.5 liters.- so the bottle of wine was half gone. Most of my wine glasses hold at least 1 cup of wine. 3 glasses (cups) of wine would more then likely not get anyone so drunk that they would be passing out or falling down drunk (imo). Of course they hadn't eaten from what we know, so that would make the effects from the wine more pronounced. Then again don't know that they didn't eat - maybe they ate before they left home. We really don't know a lot of what happened on that night.

 

[90Nine]

This is an interesting article that just came out a few hours ago...

http://www.examiner.com/x-34328-Seattle-Headlines-Examiner~y2010m4d2-Disappeared-without-a-trace-Shantina-Smiley-still-missing-fiance-holds-out-hope-shell-come-home

 

[Calliope]

Thanks, RubyRed, for the pic.

You know, Calliope, I wondered the same thing....noone could tell, or smell, that she had been drinking? What? Maybe she was just "good" at it...and had gum or mints in her car. Plus, white wine doesn't give off 'much' of an odor as other alcohols do (IMO). However, watching the surveillance videos of her I noticed some mannerisms in her that indicated intoxication (the sudden stops, the locking of the knees, slight swaying). I don't know her, but I've been around enough to suspect that.

Again, it's weird that no one else that night mentioned "drunk"...just stressed out, etc.

I have a friend who is a recovering alcoholic. He hid it very well from us for a long time. Times we thought he was fine, he had actually drank entire bottles (not large ones) of vodka. He hid it very well....same may be the case with Shantina. Just opinions, though.

So, Calliope, are you thinking "foul play"? Just curious. I thought that for a long time, but now I'm leaning away from that.

I just hope like hell that LE isn't ruling out all possibilities. Too many inconsistencies and coincidences in this story for me to say it was just an accident.

 

[Calliope]

It's not a river, it's a sound (deep inlet). It has substantial tidal currents but nothing like a rushing river. The floor on a minivan is usually less than 1 foot from the ground. No one knows how deep it was when they exited the van but my thought is there would have been substantial water and associated noise well before 18".

I'm not from that area, so maybe a local can weigh in, but I believe they would have noticed the cold water (someone posted it was in the low 40's?) long before it was deep enough to "sweep them away"...

 

[cjoosten]

I just hope like hell that LE isn't ruling out all possibilities. Too many inconsistencies and coincidences in this story for me to say it was just an accident.

Yes, I agree. I also think they know a lot more than then they are revealing. I had always believed that she stopped for help with someone somewhere along the way from the last house (10:00pm) to the beach, and that's where the foul play occurred. Someone ditching the van and Azriel, and raping/murdering Shantina somewhere else (that's why her body hasn't turned up in the water).

But I believe she will turn up soon in the sound.

 

[luckyducky]

The pacific northwest is getting pounded by a powerful storm - strong winds and pouring rain - snow in some spots in Washington State ( I am on Vancouver Island just north of Washingion State- still really gusty here and heavy rain- power just came back on after 4 hours out).

 

[SMK]

Yes, I agree. I also think they know a lot more than then they are revealing. I had always believed that she stopped for help with someone somewhere along the way from the last house (10:00pm) to the beach, and that's where the foul play occurred. Someone ditching the van and Azriel, and raping/murdering Shantina somewhere else (that's why her body hasn't turned up in the water).

But I believe she will turn up soon in the sound.

Yes, this case is not simple, it is full of twists and turns and all manner of odd conflicting facts. I have always believed there was a third party and foul play, and that the Thurston County Sheriff's Office is maintaining a low profile deliberately.

 

[sarx]

I'm not from that area, so maybe a local can weigh in, but I believe they would have noticed the cold water (someone posted it was in the low 40's?) long before it was deep enough to "sweep them away"...

Oh yeah, that water is REALLY cold!

 

[eyes4crime]

6 cups in 1.5 liters.- so the bottle of wine was half gone. Most of my wine glasses hold at least 1 cup of wine. 3 glasses (cups) of wine would more then likely not get anyone so drunk that they would be passing out or falling down drunk (imo). Of course they hadn't eaten from what we know, so that would make the effects from the wine more pronounced. Then again don't know that they didn't eat - maybe they ate before they left home. We really don't know a lot of what happened on that night.

luckyducky:
1 cup = 8oz
3 cup = 24 oz
~30 ml = oz
1500 ml = bottle of wine purchased
30ml X 24oz = 720ml = 1/2 of 1500ml = 1 bottle of a regular wine

Any way you look at it, 1/2 the bottle is gone and having just relapsed, I highly doubt she threw it out. That's assuming she only had available the wine she bought on her trip.

We were told she was taking anti anxiety medication - consumed with alcohol, you have an additive effect that can't be put into an equation without some complicated numbers. moo

 

[marcyjoy]

6 cups in 1.5 liters.- so the bottle of wine was half gone. Most of my wine glasses hold at least 1 cup of wine. 3 glasses (cups) of wine would more then likely not get anyone so drunk that they would be passing out or falling down drunk (imo). Of course they hadn't eaten from what we know, so that would make the effects from the wine more pronounced. Then again don't know that they didn't eat - maybe they ate before they left home. We really don't know a lot of what happened on that night.

I agree that that amount of wine would not make any terribly intoxicated. But no one knows if she drank on the way down there. Maybe brought something from home? If the relapse was recent and she was taking anti-anxiety drugs she would not be familiar with what impact that would have. And we don't know that she didn't take another type of drug either.